Duke Basketball Report: All Posts by Scott RichThis is a Fan's Joint!https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/52628/dbr_fav.png2024-03-15T10:50:39-04:00https://www.dukebasketballreport.com/authors/scott-rich/rss2024-03-15T10:50:39-04:002024-03-15T10:50:39-04:00Some Duke Fans Need Longer Memories
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<img alt="NCAA Basketball: ACC Conference Tournament Quarterfinal-North Carolina State vs Duke" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/jnXEqsuJEJguAOgM7ud_kDP-JhU=/0x0:4683x3122/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73209440/usa_today_22777983.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Duke Blue Devils guard Tyrese Proctor (5) shoots the ball as North Carolina State Wolfpack forward Mohamed Diarra (23) defends in the second half at Capital One Arena. | Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Blue Devil fans typically pride themselves on resisting knee-jerk reactions. Some have forgotten that.</p> <p id="gTZi9E">To a certain segment of Duke fans, Mike Krzyzewski’s origin story is just as legendary as the coach himself.</p>
<p id="nvLanT">The story has been told ad nauseam, but merits a refresher. Before he was Coach K, Coach Krzyzewski needed five seasons before he secured a better than .500 record in ACC play. Were it not for athletic director Tom Butters’ own legendary patience and foresight, Krzyzewski might have been out of a job by then. Instead, Coach K paid off that confidence with a trip to the NCAA Championship game in his sixth season, which spurred the career of the greatest of all time.</p>
<p id="jDCtmy">A certain segment of loud, reactionary, and social media obsessed Blue Devil fans might need that reminder after Duke’s early exit from the ACC Tournament last night.</p>
<p id="j20WrM">If those fans aren’t interested in thinking back to the 1980s, there’s a wealth of recent historical context to consider. Eight miles down the road, Hubert Davis has constructed a team that looks to be a top contender for the national title this March. How quickly we forget that his Tar Heels were a bubble team for most of his first season before their stellar March run, and last season were arguably the biggest disappointment in NCAA history, going from pre-season No. 1 to out of the tournament entirely.</p>
<p id="hFJIv7">Or consider the case of last year’s National Champion UConn Huskies. While the program he inherited in 2018 didn’t match the pedigree of its four National Titles, Dan Hurley struggled to a sub .500 record in his first season and missed the NCAA Tournament in his second. The next two seasons his teams lost in the tournament’s first round before breaking through last season for UConn’s fifth title.</p>
<p id="r1buXt">Then, there’s the other side of the coin. Jay Wright’s retirement at Villanova was, justifiably, overshadowed by Coach K’s, but Wright’s Wildcats were one of the most successful teams of the last decade under his stewardship. Since Wright’s retirement, young head coach Kyle Neptune went .500 in his first season and looks likely to miss the NCAA Tournament again in his second.</p>
<p id="VNQNLa">With all that in mind, maybe questioning Scheyer’s job security after a 24-8 record heading into his second Selection Sunday is a bit hyperbolic.</p>
<p id="KLuiOO">Make no mistake about it: his team’s performance in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals was frustrating, disappointing, and, perhaps, unacceptable. So was the lackluster early effort against North Carolina on senior night less than a week ago. Just like his predecessor, Scheyer is now faced with adversity early in his coaching career.</p>
<p id="wn4o29">But he’ll be defined not by this adversity itself, but how he deals with it. Coach K got that chance more than four decades ago and became a legend. Dan Hurley got that chance five years ago and became a National Champion. Hubert Davis got that chance (notably from a fanbase that most would agree is more reactionary than Duke’s) and could follow up a historically bad season with a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. And with all signs pointing to Kyle Neptune getting that chance too, the standard some Blue Devil fans are holding Scheyer to in just his second season seems all the more ridiculous in comparison.</p>
<p id="0emtro">Perhaps Duke fans got too swept up in a summer of hype. After all, most objective observers expected some decline in the program after Krzyzewski’s departure. Factor in the bare cupboard he left his successor (with Jeremy Roach the only returning contributor from Coach K’s final team), two recruiting classes whose development was affected by the COVID pandemic, and the extra burdens Duke’s academic standards cause in the transfer market, and many would argue Scheyer was set up for a slow start to his career. Instead, Scheyer displayed a masterful touch on the recruiting trail, raised a banner in his first season, and returned a talented team in his second.</p>
<p id="c6ae7R">That talented team, though, is still young, especially in the era of COVID super seniors, and has faced an unrelenting streak of bad injury luck. And despite all that, just a week ago it was playing like one of the best teams in the country. In turn, the measured expectations that most Duke fans had for their young coach’s first few seasons became drowned out by the return of a “championship or bust” mentality from some.</p>
<p id="5yWCd6">Duke fans can be forgiven for buying into the preseason hype and being disappointed relative to those expectations. Their frustration over a week in which a once-promising March suddenly shifted is understandable. But calls for Jon Scheyer’s job after a 24-8 season (that isn’t over yet!) are beneath any fan base, not just Duke’s.</p>
<p id="1eL3sv">By almost all objective measures, Scheyer has done more succeeding a legend in his first two years in Durham than any rational fan could have expected. By almost all objective measures he’s also outperformed his peers (what few there are) in comparable situations. And by almost all objective measures his team is set up for just as, if not more, future success than those peers given Scheyer’s golden touch on the recruiting trail and (by all reports) deft handling of the NIL era.</p>
<p id="oWdArF">Scheyer deserves, and will get, the chance to overcome this adversity and see if he can convert that potential into success. <em>That</em> is what he’ll be judged on, and what his eventual legacy will be. Most Duke fans realize that. Some, apparently, need a reminder. </p>
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https://www.dukebasketballreport.com/2024/3/15/24100341/duke-basketball-jon-scheyer-acc-tournament-2024-kyle-filipowski-jeremy-roachScott Rich2024-03-10T11:19:04-04:002024-03-10T11:19:04-04:00A Disappointing Senior Night Does Not Define Jon Scheyer’s First Two Seasons
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<img alt="NCAA Basketball: North Carolina at Duke" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/G-0xDe-y13nFhmWTXuZ5sG5iSgc=/0x0:4080x2720/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73196009/usa_today_22739559.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Duke Blue Devils head coach Jon Scheyer reacts during the second half against the North Carolina Tar Heels at Cameron Indoor Stadium. The Tar Heels won 84-79. | Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>24 and 25 year old players won’t be in the college game forever, but Scheyer has built a foundation for the long term</p> <p id="TeQBaY">In a sports landscape dominated by clickbait stories and hot take media coverage, the more nuanced reality is far too often overlooked. Sometimes, that reality takes the form of statements that, at first glance, might seem contradictory, but in reality describe a more complex situation.</p>
<p id="yRgQ7t">Such is the case following Duke’s loss to UNC in Cameron Saturday night. At this point, it’s undeniable that this year’s Tar Heels are a horrible matchup for this year’s Blue Devils, and arguably just simply the superior team. But extrapolating two losses to Duke’s archrival into an indictment of Jon Scheyer is the epitome of catastrophizing. Scheyer’s squad may have come up short in the year’s two biggest games, but that doesn’t suddenly cancel out the strong foundation for the future he’s built in less than two years on the job.</p>
<p id="XknYoG">Since Coach K embraced the one-and-done phenomenon, Duke fans have continuously been frustrated when their teams full of future NBA players would inevitably lose a surprising game (or two, or more!) to less talented, but more experienced, squads. In the era of the super-senior, that divide has been further exacerbated. While this year’s Blue Devil team, led by a senior and a core of sophomores rather than being overly reliant on 5* freshmen, might have been a squad of grizzled veterans in the 2010s, it’s arguably an even younger team in practice in 2024. North Carolina has fully embraced the era of the transfer portal and the availability of super seniors, supplementing a roster that already included fifth-year senior Armando Bacot with 25 year old transfer Cormac Ryan, and two more key transfers in Harrison Ingram and Jae’Lyn Withers. Duke, in contrast, has one super senior in backup center Ryan Young, who is also the lone transfer on the squad.</p>
<p id="w1tbQU">Those who are frustrated Duke didn’t mine the transfer portal in the offseason to fill holes in their roster are entirely justified, even if the story isn’t that simple: by all accounts Duke was the preferred destination of coveted transfer center Ernest Udeh Jr. this summer before admissions issues presented an insurmountable roadblock. When transfers work, like UNC’s have this season, and two years ago when Brady Manek proved to be the key unlocking the potential of a squad also led by Bacot and RJ Davis, they can push good teams to be great. But relying on them is a volatile proposition at best: look no further than last season’s UNC squad, the pre-season No. 1 team in the country that failed to make the tournament thanks in large part to transfer Pete Nance not filling Manek’s void.</p>
<p id="F0VV5a">Scheyer seems to have consciously chosen to eschew volatility for long-term stability and teams with a higher ceiling. He famously said <a href="https://go.redirectingat.com?id=66960X1516590&xs=1&url=https%3A%2F%2Ftheathletic.com%2F4239196%2F2023%2F02%2F22%2Fduke-basketball-recruiting%2F&referrer=sbnation.com&sref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dukebasketballreport.com%2F2024%2F3%2F10%2F24096246%2Fduke-unc-senior-night-jon-scheyers-first-two-seasons-blue-devils-basketball-coach-k" rel="sponsored nofollow noopener" target="_blank">he wants to change how Duke recruits</a> to create older, more cohesive teams. Duke fans have seen glimpses of the dividends that might be paid by that strategy this year in a Blue Devil team that went 15-5 in the ACC, including road wins in places like Raleigh and Blacksburg that have lately been houses of horrors. But despite the presence of Young and senior Jeremy Roach, this Blue Devil team still isn’t old, especially in comparison to a Tar Heel squad that starts two players more than 24 years old. </p>
<p id="QuBFPX">It may take another season or two before we see whether Scheyer’s strategy is the right one, as the college game’s elder statesmen are filtered out and Duke works to retain juniors and seniors developed in Durham to complement talented freshmen. Two games against UNC in Scheyer’s second season certainly won’t be the final judgement, especially when the makeup of that UNC team will be rendered a historical idiosyncrasy in just one more year.</p>
<p id="w6XLPI">Until that judgement is rendered, this Duke team is still 24-7, the No. 10 team in the country according to the NCAA’s NET Rankings, and in great position to compete for an ACC Tournament Title next weekend. Once the sting of a disappointing senior night fades, Blue Devil fans should realize there’s plenty to still be excited for this March, and perhaps even more to be excited for in the future.</p>
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https://www.dukebasketballreport.com/2024/3/10/24096246/duke-unc-senior-night-jon-scheyers-first-two-seasons-blue-devils-basketball-coach-kScott Rich2024-03-03T11:39:47-05:002024-03-03T11:39:47-05:00Without Caleb Foster, Jon Scheyer Is Investing In Duke’s Youth
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<img alt="NCAA Basketball: Virginia at Duke" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/_2Yta9Jyl2EbAzlIn9VRRqG7_Cw=/0x0:4252x2835/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73179448/usa_today_22676148.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Duke Blue Devils forward Sean Stewart (13) reacts after dunking during the first half against the Virginia Cavaliers at Cameron Indoor Stadium. | Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Some surprising substitution patterns could pay dividends later in March</p> <p id="LFBkiS">With <a href="https://www.si.com/college/duke/basketball/way-injured-duke-basketball-guard-next-3-24">Caleb Foster out for the discernible future</a>, there were plenty of questions about how Jon Scheyer’s rotation would adapt. After all, Duke has used a three-guard lineup a vast majority of this season, with Foster averaging 25 minutes per game. </p>
<p id="fiK3BN">The logical expectation was that Foster’s injury would lead to increased minutes for junior Jaylen Blakes, who while offensively limited has shown a knack for having an instant impact off the bench with his defense. Instead, Blakes was limited to mop-up duty in the Blue Devils’ two contests without Foster, with freshmen Sean Stewart and TJ Power being the first men off the bench.</p>
<p id="RMUngk">It was a somewhat unexpected pivot from Scheyer, but one that could pay dividends via a higher March ceiling for the Blue Devils.</p>
<p id="FXk9kt">After all, Blakes is a known commodity at this point: he’s a savvy (yes, minus a boneheaded play to end the first half last week at Wake Forest) veteran who brings an otherworldly level of defensive intensity but limited offensive skills. Correspondingly, his minutes have fluctuated wildly this season based on the matchup, with him serving as the sixth man in some contests but also falling entirely out of the rotation in others.</p>
<p id="vATj16">It’s very possible Blakes won’t be the last scholarship player off the bench in higher leverage games given the trust Scheyer has in him. But in Duke’s first two contests without Foster were anything but high leverage, coming against an overmatched Louisville team and in a vintage performance that knocked Virginia out before halftime. Instead, Scheyer used the opportunity to invest in his two developing freshmen who’s ascendance could make a larger impact in March.</p>
<p id="4iUYM6">Stewart’s stock has been rising since Duke’s loss to UNC: his five games with double digit minutes played since February 7 nearly match the six such games he had in the three months before. While still raw offensively, the game seems to have slowed down for the young freshman defensively, where his ability to guard 1-5 has allowed Duke to play bigger lineups and rest a starting guard. Case and point: Stewart has more than eight rebounds in three of his past four games, a mark he hadn’t eclipsed since an early season cupcake matchup against La Salle.</p>
<p id="EwmaBZ">While Stewart’s increased minutes may have been expected, Power’s have inarguably been a surprise. Power had been relegated almost exclusively to garbage time minutes before Foster’s injury, last playing more than 10 minutes in a game in the Blue Devil’s final non-conference matchup against Queens. But the 6-foot-9 sharpshooter has played 13 and 15 minutes in his last two contests, including being the first man off the bench against Virginia. While his numbers in the box score don’t jump out like Stewart’s, he brings a complementary skillset to his fellow freshman as an offensive specialist.</p>
<p id="T0k6qY">We may not know how Scheyer truly plans to adjust his rotation without Foster until Duke faces real game pressure, perhaps as soon as Monday night against NC State; indeed, it’s still possible he turns to Blakes in a hostile environment to maintain continuity with a three guard lineup. But Scheyer’s choice to favor his freshmen over the junior in the past two contests merits emphasis. It showcases a flexibility, especially late in the season, that echoes moves made by his mentor Mike Krzyzewski (who famously inserted Brian Zoubek into the starting lineup midway through ACC play in 2010, and shifted to a smaller starting lineup late in the season in 2015). But Scheyer has put his own spin on this Duke tradition in a way that arguably diverges from his mentor, going deeper into his bench to unproven freshmen late in the season. If Foster’s absence extends into the NCAA Tournament, that investment could pay dividends if Scheyer needs to turn to a youth movement off the bench.</p>
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https://www.dukebasketballreport.com/2024/3/3/24089231/caleb-foster-jon-scheyer-duke-basketball-sean-stewart-tj-power-jaylen-blakes-louisville-virginia-accScott Rich2024-02-17T10:10:45-05:002024-02-17T10:10:45-05:00Predicting The Midseason Top 16
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<img alt="NCAA Basketball: Final Four National Championship-San Diego State vs UCONN" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Toj0bW8C7t4lt6lKicjNCZUwThc=/0x0:5216x3477/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73146544/usa_today_20387814.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Connecticut Huskies players celebrate after defeating the San Diego State Aztecs in the national championship game of the 2023 NCAA Tournament at NRG Stadium. | Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Our first, and only, look inside the mind of the Selection Committee before Selection Sunday</p> <p id="JtPk3Q">While Joe Lunardi (he of pre-season brackets galore) may not like to hear it, today finally represents the unofficial start to “Bracketology” season.</p>
<p id="1r2xNi">Why? The Selection Committee will release its <a href="https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2023-12-28/2024-march-madness-bracket-preview-top-16-reveal-and-history-how-those-seeds-do">“In-Season Top 16”</a> today at 12:30 on CBS, providing our first real look at where the top teams stand in the eyes of the only people that actually matter.</p>
<p id="7lRgK0">If you can’t wait until this afternoon, your (wannabe) resident Bracketologist has his predictions ready, and unlike the committee I promise to show <em>all</em> my work.</p>
<p id="Ga0yZp"><strong>Running away from the pack:</strong></p>
<p id="UNkB4g"><strong>No. 1 Purdue</strong>: Distinguishing Purdue from UConn (more on them below) is a bit like splitting hairs. Both teams have two losses and are running away with their respective conferences; both teams are led by behemoth big men in the paint; both teams surround those bigs with some of the best three point shooters in the country. While the defending champion Huskies may be the better team, I give the resume edge to the Boilermakers, who have an additional Q1 win and an otherworldly non-conference resume that includes four victories over NET Top 10 teams and the 8th ranked non-conference strength of schedule according to the NET. (An aside: a big component of that strength of schedule is Purdue only having 3 Q4 games on their resume, something Nina King and Jon Scheyer could learn from as they craft next year’s non-conference slate.)</p>
<p id="r3GO9a"><strong>No. 2 UConn</strong>: The Huskies might very well have an argument for No. 1 after today if they can beat NET No. 10 Marquette convincingly. UConn has been absolutely cruising through conference play, securing a slew of blowout wins that make their efficiency numbers look fantastic. But there’s a clear distinction between their non-conference resume and Purdue’s, with UConn’s best such wins coming against NET No. 22 Gonzaga and No. 31 Texas. </p>
<p id="AXRSZ2"><strong>No. 3 Houston</strong>: The media narrative continues to be that the Big 12 is the best conference in college basketball, so it only makes sense for the best team in the conference to claim a No. 1 seed in March. But Houston won’t earn this on their conference’s reputation alone: the Cougars are No. 1 in the NET with 8 Q1 wins. Keep an eye on Houston if they falter down the stretch in Big 12 play, though, as the Cougars had a weaker non-conference slate that includes only one surefire Q1 win (against NET No. 19 Dayton), although three more currently sit just inside Q1.</p>
<p id="S6KTaT"><strong>No. 4 Arizona</strong>: The Wildcats, unfortunately, own one of the best non-conference victories of the season, against Duke in Cameron. They supplemented that with three more non-conference wins against NET Top 20 teams, including No. 5 Alabama. It’s worth noting, though, that the Wildcats have no more Q1 opportunities currently on their schedule. The 7 Q1 wins they currently own should be enough to secure the No. 1 seed in the West come Selection Sunday if they don’t falter down the stretch, but if they do the perceived weakness of the Pac-12 could end up being a factor.</p>
<p id="YIFE3M"><strong>Where we learn about how the committee views the conferences:</strong></p>
<p id="HsNugC"><strong>No. 5 Tennessee:</strong> Here’s my first prediction that goes out on a limb. The Volunteers are, at least according to the eye test, the best team in the SEC, a conference that the NET rankings love. They should get the nod as the top SEC team over Alabama and Auburn based on their non-conference resume (Alabama actually played the tougher non-conference schedule, but faltered in 4 of their 5 chances for a Q1 non-conference win). While other teams have stronger top-line resumes, based on recent history I think the committee will feel the need to elevate a team from the SEC, with Tennessee the beneficiary.</p>
<p id="TCgCM3"><strong>No. 6 Marquette</strong>: Here is where we start to learn how much the committee buys into the media narratives about the strengths and weaknesses of various conferences. If they view the Big 12 as far and away the best conference, you could see Kansas or Iowa State here. If they are high on the SEC, maybe Auburn or Alabama ends up higher than most Bracketologists have them. North Carolina could also be in play. I’m going with the Golden Eagles, who own non-conference victories over NET No. 13 Illinois (in a true road game, no less) and NET No. 16 Kansas, and nearly knocked off Purdue in Maui. That quality non-conference slate (which ended up ranked 16th in NET strength of schedule) is a differentiator. If Marquette can’t win one of the two matchups against UConn in the coming weeks, though, I would project them more as a 3-seed in March.</p>
<p id="Ea8RXp"><strong>No. 7 Kansas: </strong>Right off the bat, let me put a big asterisk next to this projection. I don’t think the Jayhawks look like a No. 2 seed right now, and with their injury woes I doubt they will be come March. But they still have wins over two teams that will likely be No. 1 seeds in Houston and UConn, plus additional Q1 non-conference victories against Tennessee and Kentucky. The efficiency metrics don’t like Kansas right now, but they have resume differentiators over their competitors and play in the Big 12. I think the committee takes the easy route and slots them in as the next Big 12 team.</p>
<p id="IzuGZR"><strong>No. 8 North Carolina</strong>: Like it or not, North Carolina will be the top ACC team in the rankings released this afternoon. If they end up projected as a No. 2 seed, that’s good news for Duke, who will have every opportunity to claim the ACC’s top spot over the next few weeks. The Tar Heels have a marquee non-conference victory over Tennessee (albeit it at home), one more non-conference Q1 win against Oklahoma, and a strong overall non-conference strength of schedule. That <em>should</em> give them the edge over SEC teams Alabama and Auburn, and Big 12 teams Iowa State and Baylor. If UNC falls below any of those squads, that’s an indication that the committee is buying into the “ACC is bad” narrative, and could make Duke’s case for a stronger seed an uphill battle.</p>
<p id="CVWOCS"><strong>Where we consider Duke:</strong></p>
<p id="zVmZY6">There are 5 teams, including the Blue Devils, who have a real argument for a No. 2 seed but are more likely in the next bunch: Alabama, Auburn, Iowa State, Baylor, and Duke. If the committee views the SEC and Big 12 as in a different tier from the rest of college basketball, Duke will end up the fifth among these teams. If the committee looks at the resumes, though, the Blue Devils should end up as a projected No. 3 seed. As mentioned above, Alabama played a daunting non-conference schedule but had few quality wins to show for it. Auburn and Iowa State, in contrast, had some of the weaker non-conference slates of the top teams, with only one non-conference Q1 win between them (an Iowa State win over NET No. 43 Texas A&M, which is in danger territory of ending up in Q2). Baylor’s non-conference resume is stronger, including a win over Auburn, but also a loss to Duke. You can quickly see how many possible permutations could come from this group. </p>
<p id="XWuwvG">Here’s my predicted order: <strong>No. 9 Iowa State, No. 10 Baylor, No. 11 Duke, No. 12 Auburn, and No. 13 Alabama. </strong>Iowa State’s 5 Q1 wins and the Big 12 bump makes up for their non-conference slate, but also makes them vulnerable to tumble down the seed list come March if they falter. Despite Duke beating Baylor, I think the committee will give the slight edge to the Bears, who had a similarly strong non-conference and stronger conference wins at the moment. Meanwhile, both Auburn (just 2 Q1 wins) and Alabama (7 total losses) have negative elements to their resume that the rest of this group doesn’t, dragging them down.</p>
<p id="Kiq0rb"><strong>Taking a big swing with the rest:</strong></p>
<p id="bO4N5N">The consensus is the remainder of the Top 16 will be some combination of Wisconsin, Illinois, and Creighton. Each of those teams, though, has flaws in their resume: Illinois has only 3 Q1 wins, Wisconsin now has 8 total losses, and Creighton has just 4 Q1 wins to go with 7 total losses. Unbeknownst to the casual college basketball fan, the mid-major Mountain West has a real claim as the third best conference in the country behind the Big 12 and SEC. I think the committee reflects that, putting <strong>San Diego State at No. 14</strong>. The Aztecs have 2 non-conference Q1 wins, including a true road win over Gonzaga, 5 Q1 wins, and just 6 total losses. Take away the name recognition, and they have the best resume of this bunch.</p>
<p id="oZJpV1">I think <strong>No. 15 Illinois</strong> follows, then <strong>No. 16 Creighton</strong>. Wisconsin may have 6 Q1 wins, but they’ve lost four of their last five and looked bad doing so. Call it a hunch, but I don’t think the committee wants to put a team like that, that by the eye test looks more likely to fall out of the Top 16 seeds come March than perhaps anyone else, in these initial rankings.</p>
<p id="yAG9nF"><strong>The final projected list:</strong></p>
<p id="w7vSEq"><strong>Purdue, UConn, Houston, Arizona, Tennessee, Marquette, Kansas, North Carolina, Iowa State, Baylor, Duke, Auburn, Alabama, San Diego State, Illinois, and Creighton</strong>.</p>
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https://www.dukebasketballreport.com/2024/2/17/24075536/predicting-the-midseason-top-16-ncaa-tournament-duke-basketball-blue-devils-acc-uconn-arizona-uncScott Rich2024-02-04T10:51:44-05:002024-02-04T10:51:44-05:00“Getting Old” Takes More Than One Season
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<img alt="NCAA Basketball: Duke at North Carolina" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/kInRdNCUT3pNdqkC_rwxbNlF2ZA=/0x0:4712x3141/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73110839/usa_today_22439861.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>North Carolina Tar Heels guard Cormac Ryan (3) reacts at the end of the game as Duke Blue Devils guardsTyrese Proctor (5) and Jared McCain (0) are in the forground at Dean E. Smith Center. | Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>As Jon Scheyer puts his stamp on the Blue Devil program, growing pains like in Chapel Hill are inevitable</p> <p id="YRHvVH">Around this time last year, The Athletic posted an article with a headline that most Duke fans cheered: <a href="https://go.redirectingat.com?id=66960X1516590&xs=1&url=https%3A%2F%2Ftheathletic.com%2F4239196%2F2023%2F02%2F22%2Fduke-basketball-recruiting%2F&referrer=sbnation.com&sref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dukebasketballreport.com%2F2024%2F2%2F4%2F24060930%2Fjon-scheyer-duke-basketball-tyrese-proctor-jeremy-roach-cooper-flagg-dereck-lively" rel="sponsored nofollow noopener" target="_blank">“Duke basketball recruiting is changing.”</a> In it, Jon Scheyer outlined his intention to create roster continuity at Duke and, perhaps more importantly, put more experienced teams on the floor.</p>
<p id="YYbAMI">It was a development most Duke fans cheered. Despite the success of Coach K’s final chapter, typified by one-and-done talent, a large segment of the fan base waxed nostalgic for the previous generation’s experienced, cohesive teams. Those cheers got even louder, as did expectations for the second-year head coach, when Scheyer masterfully managed his roster in his first off-season, securing the return of three sophomores with legitimate NBA aspirations.</p>
<p id="fsdC6q">Perhaps lost in that noise was the reality that sophomores are still, by definition, young. And that youth was on display in Duke’s loss in Chapel Hill Saturday night.</p>
<p id="x6zHyB">Relatively speaking, this is one of the most experienced Duke teams in recent memory. Objectively speaking, it remains one of the youngest high level teams in the nation: in the pre-season, analysis by <a href="https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/37842720/projected-ages-men-college-basketball-2023-24-season">ESPN’s John Gasaway projected the Blue Devils to have the second youngest average age amongst his Top 25</a>. North Carolina, in contrast, was projected to be one of the most veteran squads.</p>
<p id="qwmVaM">So perhaps fans shouldn’t be so surprised that a young Duke team lost to a veteran Top 5 Tar Heel squad in Chapel Hill.</p>
<p id="JfKxF2">In fact, were it not the latest edition in the greatest rivalry in college basketball, Blue Devil fans might be much more inclined to echo Coach K’s “next play” mantra. From a birds-eye view, there were plenty of indications that this was just an off night for Duke: a Blue Devil team averaging 38% shooting from deep shot just 26% on largely good looks, while North Carolina’s supporting cast (in the form of Harrison Ingram and Armando Bacot) shot a combined 18-of-25 from the field to make up for a solid Duke defensive gameplan to limit All-America candidate RJ Davis. </p>
<p id="xspxjY">Yet, Duke certainly did not pass the eye test in its highest profile game of the season, with many fingers being pointed at that returning core of sophomores. Tyrese Proctor made an impact defensively, but was limited to only 26 minutes due to foul trouble and scored only 2 points. Kyle Filipowski and Mark Mitchell, while finishing with fine stat lines, both were extremely quiet in the first half. Filipowski’s struggles from beyond the arc, where he shot 1-for-6, were particularly jarring.</p>
<p id="4OVXnw">But, despite being overlooked by much of the fanbase, such growing pains were always going to be a necessary step in building the modern program Scheyer envisions. Despite Scheyer’s incredible recruiting success, his classes have been different from Coach K’s in their top-level talent: there’s a notable drop-off between freshmen who are locks for the NBA Draft’s Top 10 picks and other 5 star talent. The former types of talent are much better suited to compensate for inexperience. The latter, especially when competing with COVID-era super-seniors, are much more vulnerable to the vagaries of youth.</p>
<p id="z7iBC0">Duke now gets to decide what Saturday night’s performance means. If this team can rebound and grow from a humbling experience, Blue Devil fans might very well end up chalking this loss up as an outlier where a young core didn’t play its best against a stellar older squad on the road. If this disappointment poisons the well moving forward, this young team could fall well short of its lofty pre-season expectations.</p>
<p id="iYEDjC">But neither scenario should disproportionately color fans opinion of Scheyer, who lest we forget is still in his second season and remains one of the youngest coaches in the sport. Scheyer inherited a program fresh off a Final Four, but with only one returning contributor (Jeremy Roach) from that squad. Scheyer easily could have adapted his predecessor’s team-building strategy and exclusively targeted Top 10, one-and-done style recruits to patch the holes in the roster. Instead, he chose the arguably harder path of reshaping the Blue Devil program for the modern age: targeting the “right” transcendent talents (like the incoming Cooper Flagg, or last year’s Dereck Lively II and pre-injury Dariq Whitehead), but otherwise building a team of players who might need two or three years to reach their full potential.</p>
<p id="nozeOG">Instead of patching leaks in the program’s hull each year, he’s choosing to building a new, modern system that’s more resilient to those leaks in the long term.</p>
<p id="y0wWic">Whether or not that strategy pays dividends won’t be determined by one loss in Chapel Hill, no matter how disappointing. After all, when Scheyer outlined his long-term plans last year, he didn’t just want his team to “get old,” but also to have continuity. In practice, that means sacrificing the instant gratification of a super-senior transfer or a class of multiple one-and-done talents for the longer road of developing a cohesive core of talent over time. The dividends on those investments may take longer to arrive, but Scheyer is banking on them being much more significant.</p>
<p id="LnZnEU">And there’s still plenty of reason to believe those dividends might start paying out this March.</p>
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https://www.dukebasketballreport.com/2024/2/4/24060930/jon-scheyer-duke-basketball-tyrese-proctor-jeremy-roach-cooper-flagg-dereck-livelyScott Rich2024-02-03T09:00:00-05:002024-02-03T09:00:00-05:00Duke Beats UNC If...
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<img alt="NCAA Basketball: Duke at Virginia Tech" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/SNB4lvSoy451geGF3mSk1tJer_0=/0x0:2470x1647/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73108976/usa_today_22401157.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Duke Blue Devils guard Tyrese Proctor (5) brings the ball down the court during the second half at Cassell Coliseum. | Brian Bishop-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Three keys to a Blue Devil victory in Chapel Hill</p> <p id="4CocAc">Duke enters its first matchup of the season against North Carolina as road underdogs. Yet, the atmosphere around the game changed dramatically this week, after the Blue Devils put up one of their best performances of the year in a convincing road win against Virginia Tech, while North Carolina lost to ACC bottom-feeder Georgia Tech. What does Duke have to do to keep their momentum going and pull off the upset Saturday night? </p>
<p id="copbAs"><strong>Tyrese Proctor needs to outplay RJ Davis. </strong>It’s not a sure thing that Proctor guards Davis one-on-one, but given that he’s Duke’s best perimeter defender and Davis is one of the best scoring guards in the country, it’s a reasonable assumption. No one has been able to slow Davis down this year, and the senior has been shouldering a huge scoring burden for the Tar Heels all season. But Proctor is the type of player that you don’t see often in the college game: a point guard with NBA-caliber length and athleticism and defensive intensity. Proctor may not outscore Davis, and he may not “shut him down” in the traditional sense, but if he’s able to disrupt Davis and force other Tar Heels into uncomfortable situations, it’s a good sign for the Blue Devils.</p>
<p id="kVJsL9"><strong>Kyle Filipowski needs to stay out of foul trouble. </strong>Yes, this is an obvious answer, but it’s so vital to Duke’s identity that it bears repeating. Filipowski’s pattern of foul trouble is all the more frustrating when you realize most of his fouls are mental mistakes rather than defensive shortcomings. Duke needs Filipowski to play 30+ minutes, and perhaps as many as 35, against the Tar Heels, not only for his own production but also to avoid putting Ryan Young into disadvantageous matchups for long stretches against Armando Bacot. Given Bacot’s relatively limited offensive game, that should be doable if Filipowski plays the smart defense he’s shown flashes of all season.</p>
<p id="w1KEPa"><strong>Duke’s freshmen guards combine for at least 4 threes. </strong>If Duke plays the three guard lineup it has preferred all season for a majority of this game, it’s likely that North Carolina’s Cormac Ryan will be tasked with guarding Caleb Foster or Jared McCain for significant stretches. Ryan is a solid ACC player, but he doesn’t have the quickness to guard Foster and McCain if they’re active off the ball. If Proctor and Jeremy Roach initiate the offense, that could lead to great opportunities for shots for Duke’s freshmen guards from off-ball screens, which they’re more than suited to exploit: McCain is shooting 40% from deep, while Foster is at 42% on lower volume. If that duo is scorching the nets from beyond the arc, it means Duke is exploiting its most advantageous offensive matchup.</p>
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https://www.dukebasketballreport.com/2024/2/3/24058933/duke-north-carolina-tyrese-proctor-kyle-filipowski-caleb-foster-ryan-young-blue-devil-acc-basketballScott Rich2024-01-21T14:52:42-05:002024-01-21T14:52:42-05:00Not All Losses Are The Same
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<img alt="NCAA Basketball: Pittsburgh at Duke" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/bTtzotVJu459v3YPaI_LdyEYE1c=/0x0:4464x2976/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73073834/usa_today_22341737.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Duke Blue Devils head coach Jon Scheyer reacts during the second half against the Duke Blue Devils at Cameron Indoor Stadium. The Panthers won 80-76. | Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>On paper, losing at home to Pittsburgh is a black eye for Duke. But basketball isn’t played on paper.</p> <p id="Exz287">What if I told you a favored basketball team would welcome an underdog into its home gym down its best guard and its best defender. What if the former was also that favored team’s senior leader, and the latter was that team’s only true power forward playing significant minutes. What if I told you that, after tip-off, the underdog’s best player would shoot 7-for-7 from three, including multiple highly contested low percentage looks, and a freshman averaging just seven points a game would explode for 17. </p>
<p id="PHaILE">In isolation, that would make for a bad 30 for 30 short. There wouldn’t be much drama: you’d expect that road underdog, clearly playing their best basketball, to pull off the upset against the depleted favorite.</p>
<p id="OffxxF">The only reason the result is newsworthy is because the favorite was Duke, the pre-season No. 2 team in the country, and the home gym was Cameron Indoor Stadium.</p>
<p id="idLv0H">Now, make no mistake: this was a bad loss for the Blue Devils, one that could cost them a seed-line (or two) come March and makes a regular-season ACC Championship an uphill climb. A truly elite team would probably find a way to overcome those obstacles and beat an inferior opponent at home. But the world, even in sports, isn’t black and white: that can all be true while also recognizing that the unusual circumstances mean the sky isn’t falling.</p>
<p id="lC2tnm">Jeremy Roach was playing as well as any guard in the ACC not named RJ Davis before tweaking his knee last week. Mark Mitchell may not be Duke’s best player, but he is their most indispensable, especially on the defensive end. Losing two such starters is a hard burden for all but the absolute best teams to overcome.</p>
<p id="8lNEtk">Perhaps that last sentence is why so many Blue Devil fans are in distress this morning: the realization that, right now, this team isn’t amongst the country’s “absolute best.” It’s frustrating, because they should be on paper: this year’s team returned the most production in recent memory, including a potential lottery pick, from an ACC Tournament winning team. </p>
<p id="o9j2GO">But nothing has been smooth and easy for this team after all those players chose to return. Duke lost incoming freshman Mackenzie Mgbako to Indiana for undisclosed reasons, a player who may have been better suited than any currently on the roster to fill Mitchell’s shoes. The Blue Devils thought they had filled the defensive chasm left by Dereck Lively II’s departure to the NBA with a coveted transfer, but academic issues reportedly prevented Ernest Udeh Jr. from ending up a Blue Devil. Kyle Filipowski missed most of the summer rehabbing from significant surgery, while Mitchell himself recovered from the knee injury that kept him out of Duke’s NCAA Tournament loss to Tennessee. Then Tyrese Proctor went down with a sprained ankle in a disappointing December loss at Georgia Tech, an injury he admits he’s still recovering from. </p>
<p id="CwdDzb">Add the injury woes that kept Roach and Mitchell out of Saturday night’s loss on top off all that and some important context comes into focus: this Duke team hasn’t yet fully cohered yet. The Blue Devils have played 5 different starting lineups. Their longest stretch with the same starting unit is just eight games, a deceiving metric considering that Proctor returned from injury, playing starter’s minutes as the sixth man, midway through that stretch. </p>
<p id="wrzAUf">This Duke team, while extremely talented and one of the school’s more experienced groups in the one-and-done era, has been scrambling all season. They’re a speedboat with a defective hull: while to the casual observer they look like they should be racing by the competition, in reality they’re constantly working to plug holes below deck.</p>
<p id="2PObCw">The good news is that NCAA basketball is unique, perhaps in all of sports, in that it’s a sprint disguised as a marathon. Come March, the marathon of a long season gets distilled down into seeding in a single-elimination tournament, the sprint that decides the champion. If the Blue Devils can find a way to permanently fix the hull of their metaphorical speedboat by then, losses like last night’s to Pittsburgh won’t matter, nor will whether they end up a 2 or a 5 seed. One need look no further than last year’s National Champions to see that: UConn finished the season with eight losses (including a stretch starting in the end of December in which they lost six of eight games) and was a four seed in the NCAA Tournament, but won each of their six tournament games by double digits.</p>
<p id="DAVNRX">Duke is in better shape now than last year’s UConn team, as by all reports the injuries that have derailed the Blue Devils will get better soon. They’re in far better shape than last year’s North Carolina squad, who entered the season with a similarly lofty pre-season ranking before historically collapsing. </p>
<p id="IKVwch">And, lest we forget, even the best Duke teams have suffered bad losses like last night’s: the 2019 Zion Williamson led squad lost at home to Syracuse in an eerily similar game where the Blue Devils were missing Cam Reddish and lost Tre Jones to injury in the opening minutes; the 2015 National Champions lost back-to-back games to unranked opponents in January, including a 16 point home loss.</p>
<p id="A5EmfA">Duke is still the same team that won eight straight games, including two road contests and a neutral site victory over a Top 10 team, before last night. One disappointing loss, when the team was at the weakest it’ll likely be all year and the opponent played it’s best basketball, doesn’t change that. </p>
<p id="SS6dQR">All that matters is that the speed boat is up and running at peak efficiency come March.</p>
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https://www.dukebasketballreport.com/2024/1/21/24045626/not-all-losses-are-the-same-duke-basketball-kyle-filipowski-tyrese-proctorScott Rich2024-01-12T11:30:36-05:002024-01-12T11:30:36-05:00Duke’s Tourney Resume Is Trending Up
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<img alt="NCAA Basketball: Duke at Pittsburgh" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ovbtyZgzLRB5ChyjEcamPU3e7-0=/0x0:2238x1492/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73048996/usa_today_22258028.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Duke Blue Devils head coach Jon Scheyer reacts on the sidelines against the Pittsburgh Panthers during the second half at the Petersen Events Center. Duke won 75-53. | Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Small, but meaningful, improvements in the ACC have the Blue Devils in a better position for Selection Sunday</p> <p id="4NlhEn">Despite finishing the regular season with an ACC Tournament Title and a respectable eight losses last season, Duke was arguably underseeded in the NCAA Tournament. The 5 seed the Blue Devils were awarded prevented them from playing their first two games close to home in Greensboro, the second of which was the loss to Tennessee that ended Jon Scheyer’s first season.</p>
<p id="TgSkH1">The main culprit was a historically weak ACC, which weighed down Duke’s metrics, alongside a weaker than usual non-conference resume. But as the focus of the college sports world shifts from football to basketball, the Blue Devils appear much better positioned for a higher seed in 2024.</p>
<p id="vUNTHp">The first difference compared to last year is the strength of Duke’s non-conference wins. The 2022-23 Blue Devils earned two Q1 victories, but neither was a “marquee” win to distinguish their resume: Xavier finished No. 18 in the NET, while Iowa finished at No. 38. This year’s victory over Baylor is superior at the moment, with the Bears ranked No. 14 in the NET, with the possibility that continued strong play in the Big 12 could elevate that further. Meanwhile, despite a disappointing season overall, Michigan State remains strong in the NET rankings at No. 26; the resilience of that ranking means that if Tom Izzo’s team turns it around (as history says they can), Duke could have another NET Top 25 victory on a neutral site on their resume.</p>
<p id="qqUMsO">Meanwhile, the Blue Devils already have something on their resume that was missing for most of last season: a Q1 road win. Duke’s convincing victory over Pittsburgh earlier this week currently sits in Q1 given Pittsburgh’s No. 66 ranking in the NET (a ranking that could rise as the NET rankings equilibrate during conference play, when mid-major teams tend to fade). Last year, it took until the regular season’s last game in Chapel Hill for Duke to claim such a victory after failing in five previous attempts.</p>
<p id="JZ42TN">The remaining schedule currently includes seven more Q1 opportunities, notably including two at home (against North Carolina and Clemson). If Duke were to win just three of those games, they’d have six regular season Q1 victories entering the ACC tournament; last year’s team had just five. </p>
<p id="uWB22v">Finally, North Carolina’s resurgence gives Duke an opportunity for true marquee victories in conference. The Tar Heels are currently No. 9 in the NET rankings, while no ACC team besides Duke finished higher than No. 21 last season.</p>
<p id="EKCkrH">The albatross on Duke’s resume is it’s loss to Georgia Tech, which currently sits in Q3; despite Duke’s road troubles last season, none of its losses fell in this category. If the Yellow Jackets can be respectable in the remainder of ACC play, it’s possible they stay in the NET Top 135 to move that loss into Q2, but regardless it will likely be a worse loss than any Duke suffered last season.</p>
<p id="FuAgOq">Still, the complete picture is much rosier for the Blue Devils this year than last year, with superior non-conference victories and a better ACC likely giving Duke a higher “ceiling” when it pertains to tournament seeding.</p>
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https://www.dukebasketballreport.com/2024/1/12/24035529/dukes-ncaa-tournament-resume-net-rankings-baylor-michigan-state-north-carolina-georgia-tech-accScott Rich2023-12-30T16:24:04-05:002023-12-30T16:24:04-05:00Duke Quiets Queens To End 2023
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<img alt="NCAA Basketball: Queens University of Charlotte at Duke" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/zj7vx7y_vHKFx_AWCf5zmxwmgnk=/0x0:2831x1887/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73010459/usa_today_22195916.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Duke Blue Devils guard Jared McCain (0) controls the ball in front of Queens Royals guard Logan Threatt (12) during the first half at Cameron Indoor Stadium. | Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Jared McCain was stellar in the Blue Devils’ final tune-up before conference play</p> <p id="0ZxDan">Duke was expected to dominate Queens in its final contest of 2023, and despite some defensive struggles it ended up doing just that.</p>
<p id="PVjNBC">The Blue Devils scored 60 points in the second half en route to a 106-69 victory in its final non-conference game of the season. Jared McCain continued the ascent that began during Tyrese Proctor’s three game absence, putting up 24 points on 9-of-14 shooting, while Kyle Filipowski scored an efficient 19 points in just 22 minutes due to foul trouble.</p>
<p id="IY9OWK">Perhaps more important for Duke’s long term outlook was the return of Proctor from that three-plus game absence following an ankle injury in the early minutes of the Blue Devils’ loss at Georgia Tech. Overcoming some uncharacteristic turnovers, Proctor finished with 9 points and 4 assists in 18 minutes of action, and showed no ill-effects from the injury.</p>
<p id="N1Hfsq">Despite a stellar offensive effort against an outmatched Queens’ team, the Royals remained within shouting distance of Duke in the first half thanks to some stellar shooting and the efforts of Deyton Albury, who finished with 23 points. But Albury also had 7 of Queens’ 19 turnovers, which were the impetus for the Blue Devils pulling away in the second half: Duke scored 33 points off turnovers and outscored the Royals 24 to 10 in fast break points.</p>
<p id="77m5o9">The Blue Devils will now get to enjoy the New Year’s holiday before returning to action on Tuesday against Syracuse, a game that looks more challenging than it might have in the pre-season after a 10-3 start for the Orange in Adrian Autry’s first season succeeding Jim Boeheim.</p>
<ul>
<li id="rzekPv"><a href="https://www.dukechronicle.com/article/2023/12/duke-mens-basketball-queens-jared-mccain-kyle-filipowski-tyrese-proctor-jeremy-roach">No. 16 Duke men’s basketball hits triple digits in commanding win against Queens to close 2023</a></li>
<li id="RaQ2ZF"><a href="https://www.wralsportsfan.com/mccain-continues-hot-shooting-with-24-points-no-16-duke-beats-queens-106-69/21215690/">McCain continues hot shooting with 24 points, No. 16 Duke beats Queens 106-69</a></li>
<li id="PttdPT"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jsykC0ZDfxo">Duke Freshman Jared McCain Posts Career-High 24 Points Against Queens</a></li>
<li id="uW88h7"><a href="https://goduke.com/documents/2023/12/30/2340286.PDF">BOX SCORE (PDF)</a></li>
<li id="n1GxdD"><a href="https://goduke.com/documents/2023/12/30/Duke_Postgame_Notes_--_Queens.pdf">POSTGAME NOTES (PDF)</a></li>
<li id="JIDpcy"><a href="https://goduke.com/documents/2023/12/30/Duke-Queens_--_Duke_Head_Coach.pdf">COACH SCHEYER QUOTES (PDF)</a></li>
<li id="5Qi7zS"><a href="https://goduke.com/documents/2023/12/30/2023_Duke-Queens_--_Player_Quotes.pdf">DUKE PLAYER QUOTES (PDF)</a></li>
<li id="RBRsUD"><a href="https://goduke.com/documents/2023/12/30/Opposing_Coach_Quotes_-_Queens.pdf">OPPONENT QUOTES (PDF)</a></li>
<li id="Le42Ij"><a href="https://goduke.com/showcase/embed.aspx?Archive=13212&autoplay=false">COACH SCHEYER PRESSER</a></li>
<li id="QxBnef"><a href="https://goduke.com/showcase/embed.aspx?Archive=13213&autoplay=false">HIGHLIGHTS</a></li>
<li id="ZmmfKc"><a href="https://goduke.com/galleries/?gallery=2121">PHOTO GALLERY</a></li>
</ul>
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https://www.dukebasketballreport.com/2023/12/30/24020086/duke-quiets-queens-to-end-2023Scott Rich2023-12-15T09:00:00-05:002023-12-15T09:00:00-05:00There’s Good News And Bad News In The Early NET Rankings
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<img alt="NCAA Basketball: Hofstra at Duke" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/lSVFzkGldxzbqJORgOrbAkJUs44=/0x0:4147x2765/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/72965929/usa_today_22092123.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Duke Blue Devils guard Jared McCain (0) controls the ball in front of Hofstra Bison guard Tyler Thomas (23) during the second half at Cameron Indoor Stadium. | Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Duke’s non-conference strength of schedule has taken a hit, but it’s conference slate might make up for it</p> <p id="WKRSQ4">Since the NCAA adopted the NET rankings, they have been somewhat notorious for some early season outliers. This year is no different: as of December 14, BYU is No. 3 in the NET despite being No. 18 in the AP poll, Iowa State is NET No. 7 despite being unranked in the AP Poll, and the Missouri Valley Conference’s Indiana State is No. 13.</p>
<p id="S8Af7F">Despite these outliers, though, there are some trends emerging that will play a role in where Duke finds itself come Selection Sunday: some positive, and some negative.</p>
<p id="vZ1CJp">Let’s get the bad news out of the way first: Duke’s non-conference schedule looks much weaker now than it did in the fall. While the home loss to Arizona looks less problematic now that the Wildcats find themselves atop both the NET rankings and AP Poll, Michigan State’s disastrous start has them ranked No. 79 in the NET, moving what was once a surefire Q1 win into Q2. Similarly, Arkansas is down to No. 104 in the NET, putting that road loss in Q2. It’s possible Hofstra and Charlotte squeak into the NET Top 75 come seasons end for some bonus Q2 victories, but the struggles of the Spartans and Razorbacks make next week’s tilt against Baylor potentially Duke’s only chance at a Q1 non-conference win (although it would be a fantastic one, with Baylor sitting at No. 5 in the NET).</p>
<p id="70qyID">That doesn’t bode well for Duke’s tournament seeding, but there’s some hope in a better-than-expected ACC. Right now, both Clemson and Virginia are in the NET Top 20, giving Duke two potential Q1 opportunities in home contests (the lack of a road contest against both these top ACC teams may be a boon for the Blue Devils’ regular season title hopes, if not their tournament seeding). North Carolina, meanwhile, is just outside the NET Top 30, potentially providing another home Q1 opportunity.</p>
<p id="jLvQ7y">Meanwhile, five conference road tests would currently sit in Q1: at North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Miami, NC State, and Virginia Tech. A contest at Wake Forest also has a chance to squeak into Q1, with the Demon Deacons sitting just 11 spots outside the NET Top 75.</p>
<p id="lPL3Dz">The comparison to last season’s ACC isn’t particularly jarring at first glance: at the end of the 2022-23 season, Duke had only seven regular season conference games were in Q1, and only one of those (against Miami) was at home. As conference play begins this year, though, it’s likely that ACC teams playing (and beating) each other will cause some equilibration in the rankings, increasing the likelihood of additional Q1 opportunities arising (home contests versus North Carolina and Pittsburgh and the road contest against Wake Forest are the most likely targets). But perhaps more importantly, the top of the conference looks much stronger than a year ago, thanks in part to Clemson (No. 11) and Virginia (No. 20) performing well in their non-conference slates. That not only gives the Blue Devils opportunities for marquee wins in the conference, and at home, but also could vastly increase the impact of its eventual ACC Tournament performance.</p>
<p id="VtV0WH">Duke’s historically slow start has had a significant impact on its NCAA Tournament resume. But if the Blue Devils can build off of their recent performances with a win against Baylor in Madison Square Garden next week, the conference schedule could provide some nice complementary opportunities to that top-of-line victory. </p>
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https://www.dukebasketballreport.com/2023/12/15/24001505/duke-basketball-net-rankings-ncaa-tournament-acc-baylor-arkansas-arizona-unc-virginia-clemson-miamiScott Rich