With the 2021 tournament now in the rearview, we can begin to put the Baylor-Gonzaga title game, and Baylor's resounding win, in perspective.
People got so caught up in Baylor’s insane dominance over undefeated Gonzaga that we forget they did the same thing to Houston on Saturday, winning by 19 and this after beating a tough Arkansas team by nine, Villanova by 11, Wisconsin by 13 and poor Hartford by 24.
Arkansas was the only team to not lose by double digits.
Keep in mind that Baylor had a Covid pause that seriously affected performance: the Bears were out of action for nearly three weeks, from February 6-20, and when they came back were so weakened that the team nearly lost to disastrously bad Iowa State (the Cyclones only won two games, nearly an inversion of Baylor’s final 28-2).
In all, Baylor lost 11 games to Covid, including an earlier match with Gonzaga that was canceled. You can’t say for sure that they would have won them all but if they had, they would have finished no worse than 39-2. And it’s reasonable to assume that a fully healthy Baylor would have beaten Kansas on Feb. 27th and likely Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Tournament. Imagine if both teams had come into Monday with perfect records. Wow.
Usually after a win like that, when a program is highly dominant, people start talking about how that team will change the game. It’s human nature, but it’s going be hard to replicate what Baylor just did.
First, having four perimeter guys who play both ends with the energy, confidence and selflessness that Baylor’s guards Jared Butler, MaCio Teague, Davion Mitchell and Adam Flager did - that won’t happen again anytime soon. It’s certainly possible that they could all decide to return next year - Teague would have to take his bonus year and Mitchell would have to pass on the draft, both unlikely but certainly possible.
Mark Vital will also likely move on. A 6-5, 250 lb. force inside, he would be very difficult to replicate.
But here’s the thing.
Even if they all came back and the roster stayed the same, circumstances change. Baylor will be the hunted next year. Media will hound them. Expectations will be high and every loss magnified.
So in other words, the only team that could do what Baylor just did would be...Baylor and even for a team as dominant as this one turned out to be, it would be very, very tough. As John Wooden once said, lots of teams have won one in a row.
Since UCLA repeated in 1973, only Duke and Florida have managed to win back-to-back titles.
So what about the Zags?
Well quite simply they were outclassed from the first second to the last. Maybe if the earlier game had been played they’d have had a better idea of what to expect, but they were just gutted and finished the season at 31-1.
They might be better next year. Why?
Two words: The Slim Reaper. Okay that’s three, but who’s counting?
Gonzaga appears very likely to sign high school freak Chet Holmgren and basically he’s a 7-1 stick figure with point guard skills. If you haven’t seen any video, start here. Yes, that’s a 7-1 guy going behind his back and blowing by Stephen Curry.
Curry might not have been playing at full speed - he probably wasn’t - but still: that’s a 7-1 guy going behind his back and blowing by Stephen Curry.
He’s a highly unusual player and will present some real matchup problems for, well, anyone.
Finally, let’s consider the much ballyhooed Western revival. Can it be sustained?
In the PAC-12, USC is likely to be heavily affected by the draft. Oregon State got hot at the right time and is well-coached, but can you sustain success there? It’s not going to be easy. We’ll see if Colorado can keep it going. The rest of the PAC-12, other than maybe Oregon, isn’t likely to be that great although UCLA should be solid for a while as long as Johnny Juzang and the core of the rotation return.
The WCC is still Gonzaga with mild pressure from BYU and maybe Saint Mary’s. Someone else might emerge but no one has yet.
Then the MWC has San Diego State and not much else really, at least in terms of national impact.
Covid had a major effect on basketball east of the Mississippi, partly as an ironic reversal of East Coast bias: there are just more people in less space and the virus was easily spread.
And it made getting a rhythm going really difficult. Duke for instance had a number of new players to incorporate. That usually starts in summer school and by the time the season starts, a lot of progress has been made. Not this time.
Michigan State had some serious problems too and Villanova, such a reliable tournament threat under Jay Wright, lost point guard Collin Gillespie on March 4th to an ACL.
The so-called Blue Bloods - Villanova, Duke, UNC, Kentucky, Michigan State and Kansas primarily - all had subpar results for various reasons.
We expect a lot of those factors will be different next season but perhaps less so for UNC and Kentucky which may need a year or two to get back on track. The Tar Heels have had several players leave already and Roy Williams followed them out the door. No one has any idea how new coach Hubert Davis will do. And Kentucky’s historically bad season had less to do with Covid than it did with less talent on hand than usual.
Still, things will be closer to normal for next fall, at least we hope and expect so, and several of the Blue Bloods will compete for the Final Four. The SEC has also improved tremendously and will be heard from.
So we wouldn’t necessarily call this year’s strong Western performance a revival yet. It could just be an aberration, a strong year out there that coincided with a poor year back east. Time will tell.