When The Three Shot Flees

We all saw it, knew it. Looking back, given the emphasis increasingly placed on the 3-point shot in both the college and pro games, it was a remarkable weakness to contend with and to overcome. If indeed Duke did overcome it.

Given the fact the Blue Devils made a shade under 30.8 percent of their threes -- easily the worst at the school since the shot was officially introduced in 1987 -- it was all the more remarkable the Devils won 32 games, captured the ACC Tournament title, and reached the Elite Eight during the 2019 season.

This was the first year in which Duke made threes at less than a breakeven rate (.333), hitting about 7.3 long-range shots for every 23.8 attempts. The lousy conversion rate was amplified during the ’19 ACC Tournament, during which the Blue Devils won the title despite making 24.6 percent of their 3-pointers (14-57) over three games.

With that track record, it was a bit of a welcome and unremarked departure when, during four NCAA tournament outings, Duke made 36.5 percent of its threes (31-85), though just 7 of 21 in the loss to Michigan State that ended the season.

For all its inaccuracy Duke was hardly alone in the ACC in misfiring regularly from the bonusphere. As we warned at mid-season, in a striking but overlooked trend weak 3-point shooting was epidemic in the league in 2019.

Only a third of the 15 league teams hit at better than a breakeven rate from beyond the arc. Bad as it was Duke’s percentage was actually exceeded, in an unenviable way, by Georgia Tech (30.72) and Wake Forest (30.78), both of which had losing record in the ACC and overall.

Ranking in that feckless corps of marksmen, a consistent boon to opposing defenses, made the Blue Devils’ achievements in 2019 all the more impressive.