Another long off-season is ahead for Duke basketball fans.
The 2018 season ended Sunday evening, when Grayson Allen’s game-winner spun out of the basket at the end of regulation. Oh, there was a five-minute overtime, but I’d just as soon forget that if you don’t mind.
It’s hard to assess how to rate the 2018 Duke basketball season. On one hand, there were 29 wins, a final No. 9 national ranking and an appearance in the NCAA’s Elite Eight.
That’s pretty good – there are several ACC programs that have NEVER had a season that good.
The trouble is that Mike Krzyzewski has raised the program to such levels that last season’s success is kind of blah. There were no championships (except the early season Phil Knight event), a second-place finish in the ACC regular season and a loss in the ACC Tournament semifinals (the second loss in three games with archrival UNC). That ninth-place national finish was a bit disappointing for a team picked No. 1 in preseason.
Let me tell you how I see it:
-- Duke has won five national championships. Those are the five greatest seasons in program history. Period. No debate. We can argue whether 1992 or 2001 or 2010 deserve to be No. 1 or No. 2 of No. 3, but the five title years are 1-through-5.
-- Duke has reached 11 other Final Fours. I would argue that the next spots on the list – 6 through 16 – belong to the Final Four teams. Again, we can debate the order – I like 1986 and 1999 with 1964 and 1966 close behind. On the floor, I think the 1999 team was the best to ever play for Duke, but that team lost in the NCAA title game, so it can’t be better than sixth place.
-- Then comes all the teams that failed to reach the Final Four – the five that fell in the Elite Eight and the nine that only reached the Sweet 16 and maybe some of the other teams that fell short.
At that level, I’m more interested in what else beyond the NCAA the team accomplished – such as ACC championships and national rankings. I could see the ranking for a great Sweet 16 team – say the 2002 team that won both the ACC regular season and tournament titles, won 31 games and finished No. 1 nationally – ahead of some Elite Eight teams.
I’m not sure where the 2018 team ranks. It will probably be somewhere near (but not at) the top of the list of Elite Eight/Sweet 16 teams. It probably will make my list of the top 25 Duke teams, but not the top 20.
Will next year be any better?
That depends a lot on the one-and-done model. Next season will be the ultimate one-and-done team – even more than this year.
To start with, it’s the highest ranked recruiting class in history – not just at Duke, but anywhere. Nobody has even signed the No. 1 (R.J. Barrett), No. 2 (Cameron Reddish) and No. 3 (Zion Williamson) prospects in the same year (with No. 7 Tre Jones thrown in). Not UCLA in John Wooden’s heyday, not the Fab Five, not John Calipari and not Mike Krzyzewski.
It would be a major surprise if all four don’t start next season. The fifth starter is likely to be junior Marques Bolden or junior Javier DeLaurier.
Now, Duke started four freshmen this past year, but they were paired with senior Grayson Allen, who had more than 3,000 minutes of experience in his first three years at Duke. Bolden and DeLaurier barely have 1,000 minutes between then.
So unless something unexpected happens, Duke will be the youngest, least experienced team that Krzyzewski has ever fielded.
It’s like the 2018 team on steroids – more talent (on paper) and less experience.
At least it will be more like a traditional Krzyzewski team than 2018 was with its reliance to two supremely gifted big men. Next year’s team will boast two superb wings (both 6-7 or 6-8) and a more natural (and less physically gifted) point guard, along with one of the most unique players Duke has ever had – 6-6, 250-poind Zion Williamson, a locomotive of a wing/power forward.
It will be interesting to see how Coach K uses him. It will be interesting to see how they all blend together, which junior big man steps up and what kind of defense the team plays
There is much that needs to be settled in the coming weeks:
(1) Rebuilding the coaching staff. Jeff Capel has left to become the head man at Pitt, while Jon Scheyer and Nate James have been promoted to associate head coach. Jeff Goodman reports that Chris Carrawell is leaving Marquette to replace Capel on the staff. Goodman is a good reporter and I haven’t seen anything to the contrary, but it is interesting that almost 24 hours after he broke the news on ESPN’s McDonald’s All-American telecast Wednesday night, the news has still not been confirmed by Duke. Stay tuned.
(2) NBA departures. Grayson Allen is a senior, so he’s gone. Marvin Bagley has announced that he’s leaving. Wendell Carter is going (his mother’s comments about college basketball being “a con” make that clear). I’m told by people I trust that Trevon Duval is positively gone and that Gary Trent is ALMOST certainly gone. That’s all five starters.
All eyes this spring will be on Marques Bolden, who considered going pro (but not transfer, despite reports) last spring. Bolden, finally healthy, began to make progress late in the season. Enough to interest the NBA? Or will the prospect (but not the promise) of starting in the middle lure him back to Duke for a junior season?
(3) Transfers out. Duke already has one transfer – Jordan Tucker left the program at midseason and landed at Butler. Will there be others? Antonio Vrankovic, who looks unlikely to play more than a minor role as a senior, could look to find more playing time somewhere else. The same could apply to Jordan Goldwire or Jack White, who don’t project into the rotation next season.
(4) Player additions. Duke is still recruiting E.J. Montgomery, a slender 6-10 McDonald’s All-American from Marietta, Ga. He would likely get some serious frontcourt minutes for the Devils next season. Beyond that, there is always the possibility of bringing in a grad transfer who could play immediately. I would rate this as an extreme longshot – K has never gone the grad transfer route and the kid would have to expect to play backup minutes for a loaded Duke rotation.
(5) The 2018-19 schedule. We already know a few details. Duke will play Kentucky early in the Champions Classic. The Blue Devils also will play in the Maui Jim Maui Classic (along with Arizona, Auburn, Gonzaga, Xavier, Illinois, Iowa State and San Diego State. Host Chaminade is not part of the tournament, but will play one entry in a “preview” game). I can’t find the ACC rotation schedule for 2018-19, but this is the last year for an 18-game ACC schedule. Duke will play UNC and Wake Forest twice, but the remainder of the ACC schedule will be released this summer. Duke also is due a home game in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge and a return game from St. John’s.
Once those issues are decided, we can start thinking about where Duke will rank in the preseason for 2018-19. Even if the off-season goes smoothly, I think I will object to picking such a young team as preseason No. 1. That doesn’t mean that Duke can’t win it all – with a bit more luck, the 2018 team could have won it all.
Of course, the competition will have a lot to say about where Duke rates in preseason. It’s too early to get more than a general impression of the top teams for 2018. NBA draft entry and transfers (in and out) will greatly alter the landscape.
For instance, as it now stands, Villanova will be the clearcut preseason No. 1. Every single rotation player can return – they graduate one end-of-the-bench player. But both point guard Jalen Brunson – the team’s key player – and big man Omari Spellman are potential NBA early entries. Lose one or especially both of those guys and the Wildcats look a lot less formidable in 2018-19. Kansas will lose a lot, but will add a lot, including three big-time transfers and a strong recruiting class (with or without Romeo Langford).
Almost all of the top teams from 2017-18 lose key players. We’ll have to see how their coaches replace them.
Looking ahead to the ACC, I am only prepared to make vague projections about the league.
I see five teams as the ACC “first division” next season – Duke, Virginia, Syracuse, UNC and Virginia Tech.
The Cavs have a lot of work to do to replace Isaiah Wilkins and Devon Hall. But their starting lineup – with D’Andre Hunter and Mamadi Diakite moving up – looks good. Bennett needs to find some bench support.
Syracuse returns almost all its key players (less freshman Matthew Moyer), but took a recent hit when top recruit Darius Bazley opted to play in the G-League. The off-season key for the Orange will be holding on to Tyus Battle and Oshae Brissett, who both could go pro.
North Carolina loses Joel Berry and Theo Pinson, but should have solid replacements in freshman Naz Little and Colby White. The key for Roy Williams is to find a point guard – either the oft-injured Seventh Woods or White (frankly, while he’s an impressive talent, I don’t think he has a point guard mentality).
Virginia Tech loses Justin Bibb and Devin Wilson, but returns a host of talented players and adds Ty Outlaw (a great 3-point shooter).
At the bottom of the league, I see five teams that will struggle in the ACC – Boston College, Notre Dame, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech and Pitt (sorry, Jeff).
The Eagles could make jump if Jerome Robinson passes up the NBA and injured grad transfer Deontae Hawkins wins another year of eligibility.
Notre Dame has a great coach in Brey, but lost too much talent … this will be his youngest team in South Bend. Wake Forest has more talent (and a good recruiting class), but a much less accomplished coach. There appears to be undercurrents in the program – the transfer of rising senior Keyshawn Woods and promising soph Donovan Mitchell hurts the Deacs.
Georgia Tech’s bad year in 2018 can be blamed on injuries, but the Jackets lost two of their three most talented players (Ben Lammers and Tadric Jackson) and the third (Josh Okogie) is flirting with the draft. It’s hard to see what Josh Pastner plans to replace them with.
Pitt is in shambles, even if most of the 11 players who obtained their release return.
That leaves five teams in the middle of the league: Louisville (maybe), Clemson, N.C. State, Miami and Florida State. All those teams could go either way.
Louisville is on the edge of disaster. Two starters – point guard Quentin Snider and big man Anas Mahmoud – have graduated. Two top juniors – Deng Adel and Ray Spaulding – are exploring the draft. That’s four starters potentially gone. There are no recruits on the horizon. Maybe new coach Chris Mack can salvage the situation – getting Spaulding and Adel back would help – but it’s possible that the Cardinals fall into the ACC’s third division.
N.C. State also lost a lot, including the unexpected departure of Omer Yurtseven, but Kevin Keatts has a new wave of transfers and recruits on hand. He’s getting his own players in place.
Miami loses just Ja’Quan Newton to graduation, but Bruce Brown and Lonnie Walker and maybe Dewan Huell are going to flirt with the NBA. Until their status is determined, Miami remains a wild card.
Florida State, even with the unexpected transfer of freshman C. J. Walker, remains a deep, talented team. Leonard Hamilton is going to have to develop a star-level player to move up in the standings.
And Clemson remains a wild card – and a cautionary tale. A year ago, the ACC media picked Clemson 13th in the preseason standings. Then the Tigers lost their best all-around player at midseason.
They finished tied for third in the ACC and reached the NCAA Sweet 16.
Most of the players who did that are back – all except starting guard Gabe DeVoe and top frontcourt sub Mark Donnal. This team still looks like a 13th-place team on paper. Can they recapture the magic next season?
Before I make any firm guesses, I want to see how the teams shape up in the next few months. It’s going to be fun the watch.
COMING AND GOING
We need to watch three lists – players going pro, players transferring out and players transferring in (especially grad transfers).
Right now, I’ve seen the following players opt for the NBA – Marvin Bagley of Duke, Omer Yurtseven of N.C. State, Josh Okogie of Georgia Tech, Bruce Brown or Miami, plus Deng Adel and Ray Spaulding of Louisville.
Most of those have not hired agents, so they have to end of August to change their minds and return.
I’m told by those I trust that the NBA early entry list will also include Wendell Carter, Trevon Duval and Gary Trent of Duke, Jerome Robinson of Boston College, Lonnie Walker of Miami and Ty Battle of Syrcause.
Not all will go, but they will at least explore their NBA options. Several other players may also declare (Dewan Huell of Miami? Cam Johnson of UNC? Jordan Chatman of BC?)
The transfer out list is going to be huge. Ignoring for a moment the Pitt contingent – give Jeff Capel a couple of weeks to win them back (two of the 11 have already relented and will return), these players are transferring:
- Jordan Tucker, Duke
- C.J. Walker, Florida State
- Matthew Moyer, Syracuse
- Jalek Felton, UNC
- Justin Moore, Georgia Tech
- Shaun Kirk, N.C. State
- Darius Hicks, N.C. State
- Spencer Newman, N.C. State
- Keyshawn Woods, Wake Forest
- Richard Washington, Wake Forest
- Donovan Mitchell, Wake Forest
- Samuel Japhet-Mathias, Wake Forest
Now, several names on this list are bench-warmers who weren’t going to play, but Woods at Wake and Walker at FSU were starters. Felton was supposed to be UNC’s point guard of the future.
In addition, Yurtseven seemed to be a unique case. He’s looking at the NBA, but if he backs off the pros, he says he will transfer.
Look for that list to get a LOT longer.
Finally, there is the list of transfers in.
Right now it’s a short list. BC will add forward Jared Hamilton from Georgia Southern, but he’s not eligible until 2019-20. N.C. State will add point guard Blake Harris from Missouri. He’s eligible second semester of next year.
The grad transfer parade has not even started.