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2018 NCAA Tournament: You Don’t Need A #1 Seed To Win - But Historically, High Seeds Usually Win

And that’s especially true of the ACC.

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Wisconsin v Duke
When Duke won the NCAA championship in 2015, the Blue Devils did so as a #1 seed.
Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

According to oddsmakers, Villanova, a top seed that won the NCAA title two years ago, is the favorite to win the 2018 national championship.

The odds would be on the Wildcats’ side even if they weren’t voted the AP’s best team for eight weeks during the ’18 season. Just being a No. 1 seed helps. Top seeds have won 21 of 39 men’s national championships (53.8 percent) since seeding began in 1979.

Eleven of the last 17 titles (64.7 percent) were won by a No. 1 seed, most recently UNC in 2017.

At the other end of the spectrum, Loyola-Chicago of the Missouri Valley Conference – which spawned the Big 10 the way the Southern Conference birthed the ACC -- is the first double-digit seed from outside a power conference to reach the Final Four since Virginia Commonwealth in 2011. To date, no team seeded lower than eighth was won the NCAAs.

In fact, just five teams seeded lower than third won an NCAA championship in the seeding era (12.8 percent) – No. 4 Arizona in 1997 with walk-on guard Josh Pastner, now head coach at Georgia Tech; No. 6’s Kansas in 1988 coached by UNC grad Larry Brown and led by current Wake coach Danny Manning, and Jim Valvano’s NC State squad in 1983; No. 7 UConn in 2014; and No. 8 Villanova in 1985.

Top seeds comprised a pair of contestants in three of the last four Final Fours. Only in 2008 were all four entrants No. 1 seeds.

Every team in this year’s Final Four has previously won a national title. That last happened in 2015.

As for the ACC, of a dozen title-winners since 1981, 10 were top seeds and another, Duke in 1991, was a No. 2.

FOURTUITOUS
Final Four Fields Since 1979, When Seeding Began
(Champions Marked by Asterisk, ACC Champions in Bold)
Year Seed, Team Seed, Team Seed, Team Seed, Team Non-Power League
2018 1 Villanova 1 Kansas 3 Michigan 11 Loyola-Chicago Loyola-Chicago
2017 1 UNC* 1, Gonzaga 3 Oregon 7 South Carolina Gonzaga
2016 1 UNC 2 Villanova* 2 Oklahoma 10 Syracuse
2015 1 Duke* 1 Wisconsin 1 Kentucky 7 Michigan State
2014 1 Florida 2 Wisconsin 7 UConn* 8 Kentucky
2013 1 Louisville* 4 Michigan 4 Syracuse 9 Wichita State Wichita State
2012 1 Kentucky* 2 Kansas 2 Ohio St. 4 Louisville
2011 3 UConn* 4 Kentucky 8 Butler 11 VCU Butler, VCU
2010 1 Duke* 2 West Virginia 5 Butler 5 Michigan St. Butler
2009 1 UNC* 1 UConn 2 Michigan St. 3 Villanova
2008 1 UNC 1 Kansas* 1 Memphis 1 UCLA Memphis
2007 1 Florida* *1 Ohio State 2 Georgetown 2 UCLA
2006 2 UCLA 3 Florida* 4 LSU 11 George Mason George Mason
2005 1 UNC* 1 Illinois 4 Louisville 5 Michigan State Louisville
2004 1 Duke 2 UConn* 2 Oklahoma St. 3 Georgia Tech
2003 1 Texas 2 Kansas 3 Marquette 3 Syracuse* Marquette
2002 1 Maryland* 1 Kansas 2 Oklahoma 5 Indiana
2001 1 Duke* 1 Michigan St. 2 Arizona 3 Maryland
2000 2 Michigan St*. 5 Florida 8 UNC 8 Wisconsin
1999 1 Duke 1 UConn* 1 Michigan St. 4 Ohio State
1998 1 UNC 2 Kentucky* 3 Stanford 3 Utah Utah
1997 1 UNC 1 Kentucky 1 Minnesota 4 Arizona*
1996 1 Kentucky* 1 UMass 4 Syracuse 5 Mississippi St. UMass
1995 1 UCLA* 2 Arkansas 2 UNC 4 Oklahoma St.
1994 1 Arkansas* 2 Arizona 2 Duke 3 Florida
1993 1 UNC* 1 Kentucky 1 Michigan 2 Kansas
1992 1 Duke* 2 Indiana 4 Cincinnati 6 Michigan Cincinnati
1991 1 UNC 1 UNLV 2 Duke* 3 Kansas UNLV
1990 1 UNLV* 3 Duke 4 Arkansas 4 Georgia Tech UNLV
1989 1 Illinois 2 Duke 3 Michigan* 3 Seton Hall
1988 1 Arizona 1 Oklahoma 2 Duke 6 Kansas*
1987 1 Indiana* 1 UNLV 2 Syracuse 6 Providence UNLV
1986 1 Duke 1 Kansas 2 Louisville* 11 LSU Louisville
1985 1 Georgetown 1 St. John's 2 Memphis 8 Villanova* Memphis
1984 1 Georgetown* 1 Kentucky 2 Houston 7 Virginia Houston
1983 1 Houston 1 Louisville 4 Georgia 6 N.C. State* Houston, Louisville
1982 1 Georgetown 1 UNC* 3 Louisville 6 Houston Louisville, Houston
1981 1 LSU 1 Virginia 2 UNC 3 Indiana*
1980 2 Louisville* 5 Iowa 6 Purdue 8 UCLA Louisville
1979 1 Indiana St. 2 DePaul 2 Michigan St.* 9 Penn DePaul, Ind. St., Penn


CHAMPIONS
Seed No. Seasons Won
1 21 2017, 2015, 2013, 2012, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2005, 2002, 2001, 1999, 1996, 1995,1994, 1993, 1992, 1990, 1987, 1984, 1982
2 8 2016, 2004, 2000, 1998, 1991, 1986, 1980, 1979
3 5 2011, 2006, 2003, 1989, 1981
4 1 1997
6 2 1988, 1983
7 1 2014
8 1 1985
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