After The UNC Game, Some Perspective

I hate the Dean Dome.

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Not because the Dean E. Smith Center is the home of Duke’s biggest rival, but because it’s a badly designed dump – packed with bad seats (the great majority in the corners or end zones; the upper level seats so far away you need binoculars to see the court).

I should actually love the place, since it’s been so good to Duke.

I’m old enough to remember Carmichael Auditorium (actually, I’m old enough to remember Woollen Gym, but let’s not go there). Carmichael was a nightmare for the Devils – Vic Bubas won his first visit there in 1966 and Johnny Dawkins led Mike Krzyzewski’s 1985 team to a victory in Duke’s last visit, but in between the Devils lost 19 straight games on UNC’s homecourt, many in heartbreaking fashion.

In contrast, the Dump on the Hump has been pretty kind to Duke fortunes – not quite a home away from home, but close.

After Wednesday night’s memorable 74-73 victory over No. 5 North Carolina, Duke now has a winning record in the Smith Center – 16-15. To be fair, that includes two wins in the 1988 NCAA Tournament at the Smith Center, so the Devils are merely 15-16 against UNC on its home floor.

And it’s only gotten better over time: Duke is 12-6 in Chapel Hill since 1999. That includes three of the last four and the last two in a row.

And the quality of the wins!

Follow me down memory lane …

1988 – Duke was reeling after a homecourt loss to Maryland, but the Devils went to Chapel Hill and put the defensive clamps on No. 2 UNC. On the game’s last play – with Duke up 70-69 – Robert Brickey made one of the great defensive plays in Duke history – first he dropped down to deny an entry pass to J.R. Reid, then when guard Jeff Lebo decided to take a 15-foot jumper, the 6-5 Brickey jumped out in his shoes and swatted the potential game-winner away (shades of Derryck Thornton Wednesday night, except Brickey’s block was much more emphatic).

1989 – No. 9 Duke took on No. 5 UNC coming off back-to-back losses and had a two-point lead with less than a minute left, when Danny Ferry fell down and turned the ball over. But moments later, he redeemed himself with a steal. After Quin Snyder missed a free throw, Greg Koubek came up with a steal and Duke held on for an 88-86 victory.

1999 – Duke’s most powerful team went to Chapel Hill and buried No. 14 UNC 81-61. It might have been much worse, but Coach called off the dogs down the stretch.

2000 – No. 3 Duke was the favorite, but UNC rallied from a double-digit deficit in the second half to force overtime. But Chris Carrawell and freshman Jason Williams, who had an awful game up to that point, dominated the extra period in a 90-86 win.

2001 – No. 2 Duke was higher ranked, but No. 6 UNC was heavily favored at home after an injury sidelined Blue Devil center Carlos Boozer. But K revamped his team before the game and the pressing, 3-point shooting Devils blitzed the Tar Heels, 95-81 … then beat them even worse a week later in the ACC title game.

2004 – Much like 1990 in that No. 1 Duke was favored, but UNC fought back and forced overtime. But when UNC tied the game again with just second remaining in the extra period, Chris Duhon took an inbounds pass, dribbled the length of the court, sliced through the UNC defense and scored the winning basket. [Note to Roy Williams – Roy, watch the ’04 finish and try to get a sense when and when not to call a timeout in the final seconds].

2008 – Roy enjoyed his greatest success against Duke between 2006 and 2009, but what might have been a seven-game winning streak in the series was split in two by Duke’s 89-78 victory. Six Blue Devils scored double figures and Duke hit 13 3-pointers (UNC was 3-of-17).

2012 – Austin Rivers fired the shot that broke UNC hearts everywhere. ‘Nough said.

2015 – UNC led No. 3 Duke most of the way and was up seven points with 11 minutes left, when freshman Tyus Jones took control. He scored 17 of his game-high 24 points in the second half as Duke pulled out an 84-77 victory.

2016 – Duke, down to five players – including Marshall Plumlee with four fouls is down eight when … well, you saw it.

That’s only the highlights. I left out the great win in 1991, the rout of a downtrodden UNC team in 2002 and a ho-hum victory in 2013. There have been some heartbreaks for Duke in the Dump – 1996 and 2005 stand out as games the Devils could have won.

Still, Duke playing in the Smith Center is like throwing Br’er Rabbit in the brier patch.

So I guess I love the place, even if it’s a dump.

THE PRESENT

It would take a Herodotus or a Thucydides to pay proper homage to what Duke did Wednesday night in Chapel Hill.

In basketball terms, it was very similar to the Last Stand at Thermopylae – except that Duke won and the 300 Spartans ultimately had to settle for the greatest moral victory in human history.

Krzyzewski’s job was tough enough before the game with just six reliable players available, plus maybe a few not-so-terrible minutes from freshman Chase Jeter. But when Matt Jones, one of the most reliable and versatile players on the team, went out with just over seven minutes to play in the first half, his job became impossible.

K was reduced to a five-man rotation that included one senior, one sophomore and three freshmen.

Only it wasn’t impossible … merely improbable.

Watching the replay of the game, it’s still hard to understand how Duke won. Brice Johnson was magnificent for UNC. The Tar Heels dominated the boards. The Devils didn’t shoot all that well – just 41.5 percent from the floor and a solid, but-not-great 7-of-19 from 3-point range. And Duke only got to the foul line 16 times.

I guess the most glaring reason for Duke’s win was that somehow the Tar Heels lost offensive focus down the stretch. They stopped looking for Johnson inside and began to jack up shots from the perimeter. Some of that was Duke’s defense, which has been getting steadily better in the last three games. Some of that is Roy Williams’ stubborn refusal to call a timeout – not just in the frantic final 20 seconds, but during that 10-12 minute stretch when UNC was bedazzled on offense.

But what was going on in the first half, when UNC was scoring with admirable efficiency? The Tar Heels scored 46 first half points … and led by just four.

I think Roy Williams gave one of the most astonishing halftime interviews I’ve ever seen when asked about Duke scoring 42 points on his team, he said, "I don’t care if we gave up 42 points because we like a fast tempo … I don’t ever care how many points we give up as long as we score more."

Think about that attitude for a moment. Could it explain why Roy’s UNC teams have so often been soft defensively?

What impresses me about K is how he’s been able to rebuild this team’s defense on the fly – without his best defensive player. He did the same thing a year ago, when the freshman dominated Devils collapsed on defense at midseason, forcing the coach to go to a zone to get things going.

But he kept working on his beloved man-to-man defense and by tournament time, Duke was a defensive terror – playing almost all man-to-man.

This freshman-dominated team has also struggled on defense, especially after losing Amile Jefferson in December. He’s used a variety of defenses to keep this team afloat.

But the 2016 Devils are playing more and more – and better and better -- man. Duke used a variety of defenses in the first half at Carolina with little success. In the second half, K reverted back to the man and even with Plumlee’s foul trouble and no substitutions on the perimeter, Duke’s defense gradually strangled UNC’s offense.

Leonidas would have been proud.

Duke has now won five straight games to turn a disappointing season into one with real promise. Duke, now 20-6 overall and 9-4 in the ACC is back in the hunt for – not just a strong NCAA seed and a double-bye in the ACC Tournament – but also for the ACC regular season title as well.

More importantly, a Duke team that had not beaten anybody very good has now beaten three ranked teams in a row – two in the top 10.

Three ranked victims in a row is pretty impressive – it’s happened several times in postseason (most recently in 2015 as Duke finished with four straight wins over ranked opponents), but as far as I can tell, it’s never before happened to Duke in the regular season.

Saturday, the Devils will get a chance to make it four ranked victims in a row when Duke travels to Louisville to face the No. 18 Cardinals.

THE FUTURE

A year ago, Duke fans gloried in the label "Eight is enough" after a Coach K guided a roster of eight scholarship players to the national championship.

But, you know what? Eight is not enough.

The fact is that the 2015 Blue Devils started with 10 scholarship players, not eight. Sophomore forward Semi Ojeleye transferred at midseason and junior guard Rasheed Sulaimon was dismissed from the team at the end of January.

By having 10 viable players on the roster, Krzyzewski was able to withstand the loss of two players and remake his team with eight players. Eight WAS enough – but only because he started with 10.

This season, Krzyzewski was hoping to have an eight or nine-man rotation. But neither transfer Sean Obi nor freshman Chase Jeter was ready to contribute. Neither was freshman Antonio Vrankovic, but that was expected.

The inability of Jeter and/or Obu to contribute reduced K to a seven-man rotation.

Now seven if enough for most games, but not for the long haul of the season. Amile Jefferson’s December injury reduced K’s options to six viable players.

Amazingly, Coach K figured out how to win with a six-man rotation. But just as the team was surging, Matt Jones goes down with a "badly" sprained ankle.

Unless Jones makes a remarkable recovery or Jefferson’s pain suddenly disappears and he can return, Krzyzewski is forced to go forward with a five-man rotation.

It’s a pretty strong starting five – as they proved Wednesday night in Chapel Hill.

But how long can five players last in the cutthroat world of ACC basketball?

As noted above, Duke is back in the ACC title race – just one game in the loss column behind co-leaders UNC and Miami (which meet Saturday in Chapel Hill). But is the ACC regular season title a reasonable goal for a team with a five-man rotation? Duke will almost have to win out to come out on top.

I will be fascinated to see how K copes Saturday at Louisville. Consider these possibilities:

-- The best case is that Jones and/or Jefferson is able to play. If one is back – either one – K can go back to his six-man rotation and keep moving forward. If both return, well, at that point, the Blue Devils can start dreaming of back-to-back national titles.

-- Neither is ready to play Saturday.

Does Jeter get more minutes? That could help Plumlee, but what about the four perimeter players? Can Coach K ask Grayson Allen, Brandon Ingram, Luke Kennard and Derryck Thornton to play 40 minutes against the Cards?

Maybe he’ll try Plumlee and Jeter together, which would allow Ingram to move to his more natural wing position and allow Coach K to give his perimeter players a bit of rest.

Or does he go with a walk-on for a few minutes of burn? He’s done that before – Patrick Davidson in 2005 and Jay Heaps in 1996 both got starts for various reasons. Steve Pagliuca has never played a significant minute at Duke, but the 6-3 junior has two varsity letters and appears to be a player K likes.

I’ll be curious to see if Coach K tries to slow the tempo – as he was able to do in the second half at UNC – to shorten games, prevent foul trouble and save his five regulars from fatigue.

I’ll be equally curious to see if Louisville coach Rick Pitino tries to force the tempo – his teams have pressed fullcourt in the past. He’s said this team isn’t very good at the press, but it might be a tactic he tries if only to wear out Duke’s paper-thin squad.

I don’t know how much Coach K – miracle worker that he is – can accomplish going forward with a five-man rotation. I have no idea whether Jefferson or Jones can return in time to make a difference. I have no idea whether Jeter or Pagliuca or somebody else can give Duke’s iron five a few minutes of solid relief.

Frankly, I can’t see how Duke can win at Louisville with a five-man rotation.

But I still can’t understand how Duke won Wednesday night at North Carolina, so what the heck do I know?