NCAA Tournament 2015: Sometimes It's Better To Be #2 Than #1

Virginia fans have taken umbrage at Duke after the Devils got a #1 seed, to which we can only say: they're still new at this, so be careful of what you ask for.

is in the East and has, we think, a pretty clear shot at the Final Four - and as long as Duke's not playing, we're pulling for them.

But let's look at UVA's situation vs. Duke's.

We can't claim to know for sure, but we suspect that Virginia was bumped down because of losing two out three games just before the field was seeded and because Justin Anderson is certainly not at full health.

It probably helped that Duke played and beat Virginia at Virginia, and that Duke also beat Wisconsin rather handily on the road.

Toss in a win over Michigan State, road wins at UNC and Louisville and a complete dismantling of Notre Dame, and you at least have an argument.

Like everyone, Duke scheduled some money games, but the Blue Devils also played Temple, Stanford, Toledo, UConn and St. John's.

By contrast, here's Virginia's non-conference opponents: James Madison, Norfolk State, South Carolina State, George Washington, Tennessee State, LaSalle, Rutgers, Maryland, VCU, Cleveland State, Harvard and Davidson.

The Cavs get extra credit for Davidson, Harvard and VCU, but Maryland was mandated by the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. The rest? Pretty weak. 

As we've learned over the years, scheduling matters.

Be that as it may, UVA is a great team - we don't use that lightly - and a formidable opponent in this tournament. Still, when Tony Bennett said Duke was a deserving #1 seed, we expect he was sincere, but we also expect that he was thinking "better you than me."

On the bottom of the bracket as a #2 seed, UVA gets Belmont to open, then, assuming it's a win, the winner of the Michigan State and Georgia game.

Tom Izzo is doing a brilliant job with this team, but this is not a normal Michigan State team. He doesn't have a lot of talent but he is maximizing it.

Nonetheless, the Spartans are very beatable.

After that, who is there? Oklahoma and Providence seem likely to advance; we haven't heard anyone argue that either team is superior to Virginia.

On the top side of the bracket, we find Villanova, Lafayette, NC State, LSU, Northern Iowa, Wyoming, Louisville and UC Irvine.

Louisville can obviously beat Virginia, and State is in the neighborhood. Otherwise?

Forget Layafette, LSU, Wyoming, Northern Iowa and Irvine.

That leaves Louisville, State and Villanova.

Realistically, Louisville has serious offensive limitations and State is still young and erratic. And Villanova? We'll take Virginia.

Now look at the South bracket.

St. John's is limited without its center, who is suspended. San Diego State is always a tough out. Utah has been outstanding all season. SMU is led by one of the most brilliant coaches ever in Larry Brown. Iowa State is a profoundly athletic team that can run most teams out of the gym. The Cyclones are no joke. Davidson is always capable of upsetting just about anyone and this is probably the best Gonzaga team ever.

At a minimum, there are five teams that could upset Duke, and we didn't even get to Georgetown or Iowa.

Of course in a very real sense it doesn't matter. This tournament is more about matchups and who has  your number than it is about rankings.

We think Duke has a shot at Kentucky, and that's the game we'd prefer to see if both make it that far. But if UK does and Duke doesn't, we'd love to see Kentucky run into the molasses that is Virginia defense. People say you can't prepare for Kentucky's length and talent, but if you haven't come up against Virginia's defense, you can't possibly understand how difficult it is. Get behind and miss a few baskets, and anxiety is another defender.

Kentucky's talent is incredible, but a very small part of any game is spent off the floor. The rest would be spent on the ground, in the tender embrace of the Cavaliers, who will decide just how fast you move and just how many points you will be scoring.