Duke Trailing A Historical Indicator Of Post-Season Success

Spying doom and gloom on Duke's horizon was easy when Rasheed Sulaimon was dismissed from the squad last week. But the chances of reaching the Final Four were slim even before the reserve guard was sent packing on Thursday.

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Several occasions come immediately to mind when Mike Krzyzewski rallied teams from extended mid-season personnel losses. Remember Elton Brand's injury in 1998, Carlos Boozer getting sidelined in late February of 2001, Kyrie Irving being lost for all but 11 games in 2011, Ryan Kelly out for 13 games in 2013?

Three of those four squads got the injured player back and reached the NCAA regional finals. But only the '01 squad survived a mid-season wounding to advance to the Final Four.

Losing Sulaimon permanently is different, of course. Besides, one could argue that, based in its own precedent, Duke sealed its 2015 fate with the Notre Dame loss on Wednesday, the day prior to his dismissal.

The defeat at South Bend was the Devils' third of the season. Over the 19 years since Krzyzewski returned to the bench after suffering back woes and exhaustion, only one of his squads incurred three or more defeats by the end of January and went on to the Final Four.

The current team is 18-3 after topping second-ranked UVa on Saturday.

This is the seventh time since 1996 Duke has at least three losses by the end of January. During that span only one of six previous squads with loss-laden January finishes ended the year with at least 30 wins or a Final Four berth.

On the other hand, four of the six saw the Blue Devils eliminated in their first NCAA outing, including last season against Mercer.

The exception to the January loss criterion -- the time Duke fell to its fourth defeat on Jan. 30 at Georgetown and still came back to win 35 -- was the 2010 national championship season.

You have to reach back farther to find less ominous portends. Of Duke's 11 Final Four appearances under Krzyzewski, four came with teams that incurred three or more losses by the end of January - 1989, 1990, 1991 and 2010. The 1991 squad had four defeats by Jan. 23 and still won the NCAA title.