Pete Thamel has a column up about just what the Big 5 conferences are after. According to Thamel, the odds of bolting the NCAA are essentially zero, but the odds of a new division are much higher. And there's a pretty good chance that NCAA chief Mark Emmert, widely derided now, won't be around for it.
It's really hard to know what's going to happen - no one really does - but things are going to change considerably.