According to his dad, Mason Plumlee is "agonizing" over his decision. That's really nice to hear in a sense because it means he's really thinking this through. Not that he's asking for our advice, but if he did, here's what we'd say:
Current projections have you somewhere between #20 and #30. Historically, that's a risky area. As the draft develops on draft night, you have no guarantees whatsoever and you could very easily fall out of the first round. That makes your NBA future much dicier, because with a three year contract, you have time to grow into a role and to make yourself valuable to a team - while being paid handsomely.
If you choose to stay, you get to play with a brother for the last time. You also get a chance to finish your degree work and to explore other interests. As great as the NBA money is, you won't get a chance to do this again the way you can now. For people with real intellectual curiosity, being able to do that is priceless. You also get a chance to play with Rasheed Sulaimon, Alex Murphy and Michael Gbinije, who did play as a freshman, but who's going to play a lot more. Having three really good wings is going to change the team a lot.
And we are really excited about the future for Quinn Cook. The kid had a terrible break when he blew out his knee in high school, but we saw signs this year of a brilliant point guard. Another year of hard work will really help him a lot.
Sulaimon and Gbinijie have the potential to radically change Duke's defense; Cook and Murphy, who may really profit from his redshirt year, have the potential to radically change Duke's offense.
All of that's great and exciting. But what's really exciting, on two levels, is an opportunity for Mason Plumlee: first to be the leader and driving force as a senior leader, and two, the chance to really drive up your NBA value.
We're pretty sure Mason will have a rewarding NBA career no matter when he comes out or where he's drafted. He's a big guy who can rebound and that will keep you employed for a decade or more.
But he has the potential to be much more than that. Another year at Duke will put him in position to be a significantly higher draft pick.
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