Although the whole expansion business is still unfolding, there is some tentatively good news for the ACC Saturday night, and an update at the very end of this post:
Clemson President James Barker released a statement saying that "[Clemson] is committed to the ACC. We have had no contact with the SEC."
And FSU President Eric Barron said "'[f]rom coach to [athletic director] to president and the board [of trustees] chair, there has been no discussion."
There's more wiggle room there, but it's still encouraging.
Eleven of the 12 SEC presidents will meet Sunday, according to the Palm Beach Post, and will vote on at least offering Texas A&M. If it's true that they haven't talked to any ACC school, that could make things dicey, because Monday is the cutoff point contractually for conference teams: after that day, they will only get 25% of their TV revenues from the conference. That works out to about a $10 million dollar hole in the budget and not exactly in the best of times, either.
The SEC's money is behind most of this, understandably, and as tempting as that might be, for some of the schools mentioned losing $10 million, even short-term, would be devastating (think UNC and Georgia Tech in particular).
UNC's name has come up in rumors, but that won't happen for the following reasons: 1) money (see above. 2) That would mean giving up the Duke-UNC ACC rivalry which we can't imagine they would want to do, and 3) they're in enough trouble with football already. You can't make nice with the NCAA after what's happened over there and then turn around and join the Situational Ethics Conference (not to mention the SEC doesn't know what they'd be getting when the NCAA is through with them, but it won't be pretty).
So far, then, we can rule out the Big Four (UNC can't, State won't, and the SEC won't take Duke to get UNC under any circumstances and Duke's not about to move and no one is after Wake Forest), Virginia Tech has emphatically said no, Clemson has said no, Georgia Tech has not but they would likely lose $10 million and they can't afford that, and further, we think Georgia would probably fight their admission.
As far as we know, Virginia and Maryland aren't being considered and Miami has not come up but isn't a good fit anyway. There's no point in bringing B.C. up.
So if they do raid the conference, it'll almost certainly be Florida State. It's worth remembering that Jimbo Fisher has an SEC background.
And they'll have to move on Sunday or lose around $10 million.
And while many schools have denied interest, the SEC is surely exploring and may have an offer ready to ship by tomorrow evening, assuming Texas A&M gets invited.
The funniest scenario in one way would be to invite Texas right after A&M. That would drive Aggies everywhere right off of their cows.
Update - Texas State Rep. Dan Branch says that "I'm told by A&M officials that it is not an attempt to pre-empt legislators questions and that this will take perhaps a week to two weeks to work out anyway, if a bid is extended."
As the Texas legislature is now involved, they'll have the power to pressure A&M to bend to their will. Things are now a lot more complicated. A Big 12 official has downgraded the odds from 90-95 to something more like 50-50 and "tilting the other way."
Additionally, there are suggestions that the Big 12 TV contract could be voided if the Aggies leave and that this would lead to lawsuits against A&M and the SEC. Things have gotten very interesting indeed.
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