Although the first game with State was only about two and a half weeks ago, a lot has changed.
Much of the optimism which surrounded State's season early on has dissipated.
Since their laugher against Wake Forest, State had bad losses to Boston College, Florida State, Clemson, UNC and Virginia Tech. The only win was against Miami and that came after losing almost all of a 16 point lead.
Worse than that, they've often seemed distracted and as if they're no longer particularly interested.
If you show up in Cameron like that, you're going to get killed.
Despite everything, that seems unlikely.
State's problems have been between their ears and have nothing to do with talent. They have plenty of talent.
Here's the unfortunate reality: this is a very young team. You know what to expect game to game from Tracy Smith and even Javi Gonzalez, but the kids, the freshmen and sophomores, are complete wildcards.
CJ Leslie is a blinding talent yet an unskilled player. Ryan Harrow can be brilliant or awful, and we've watched him, Lorenzo Brown is an erratic defender.
We could go on, but you get the idea.
Still, when you have talent you have a chance. It won't be easy, and they have to overcome their recent habit of falling apart at the end of games, but could they win? Well, yes. They'd have to really show up, but the thing is, they do have talent.