I blame Billy Packer.
Look, losers have been complaining about the officials ever since Koroibas, a cook from Elis, won the first Olympic race in 776 B.C. And you know that Leonidas of Rhodes got all the breaks during his domination of the games between 164 and 152 B.C.
In ACC circles, it was widely believed that Dean Smith got all the calls from a generation of âCarolina refsâ. By the mid-1990s Duke was winning enough that Mike Krzyzewskiâs program became the focus of fan resentment, especially in Maryland, where coach Gary Williams did little to hide his frustration at Coach Kâs domination of his program. But the whole âDuke gets all the callsâ paranoia didnât take off until Packerâs hysterics at the 2001 Final Four.
He made it a national phenomenon.
The former Wake Forest star started quickly. Less than four minutes into the Duke-Maryland semifinal in Minneapolis, Jason Williams was fouled and Packer responded by shouting, âBoy, Duke is getting a lot of calls.â
It was an interesting observation, considering that game had barely begin and the foul is question was the fourth of the game â two against Duke and two against Maryland. Watching the tape again, there had not been a single controversial or even questionable call to that point. The call the provoked Packerâs reaction was a no-brainer â Byron Mouton clearly hacked Williams as he put up the shot.
I realize thatâs my subjective judgment, but I challenge anybody to watch the tape and find ANY basis for Packerâs declaration to that point in the game.
Continue to watch the tape and youâll see a number of questionable â and downright wrong â calls over the next 15 minutes or so. Quite frankly, the officiating through that period was horrible, although I believe it was horrible both ways. Duke and Maryland were both the victim of some terrible calls. It couldnât have hurt the Terps too badly, since thatâs the period when Maryland built its 22-point lead.
Now, hereâs the funny thing. If you watch Dukeâs comeback late in the first half and through the second half, there is a noticeable absence of controversial calls. Now, you can suggest that my judgment of such things is biased. Fair enough, but Packer â who would rather second-guess officials than call the game â doesnât object or question a single call during Dukeâs rally. In fact, he later praises the officials for making a great recovery after their shaky start.
That changed in the final moments of the game. With 2:48 left and Duke leading 84-79, David Libby whistles a foul as Lonnie Baxter and Carlos Boozer jockey for position in the post. At first, play-by-play man Jim Nance thinks the foul is on Boozer. When he sees that the call is going the other way, he said, âThatâs going against Baxter, who canât believe it.â
Packer goes ballistic.
âI canât believe it either! Can you believe that?â he screams. After watching the replay, he says in a slightly more subdued tone, âI just couldnât see it. Thatâs either a no-call or ...â
His voice peters out before he suggests that there should have been a foul on Boozer.
Watching the CBS replays of the incident, itâs easy to understand the confusion. It doesnât look like a foul was committed by either player (unless you know exactly what to look for). It was just two post players bumping bodies in the paint â Baxterâs butt against Boozerâs torso. Only later did I see a local TV replay that explained why Libby called the foul. Shot from the baseline, it shows that as Baxter backed into Boozer, he reached back with his left hand and briefly grabbed the side of Boozerâs shorts. In the shot, Libby can be seen standing barely five feet away on the baseline â to Baxterâs left with a perfect view of the grab. Rewatching the CBS replay, you can catch a quick glimpse of Baxterâs furtive grab.
Now, subjectively, I can see arguing that the play was a no-call. The brief hold occurred before the entry pass and I canât see where it gave Baxter an advantage. But it was hardly the worst call in the history of college basketball as Packer made it seem.
But that was just the start of Packerâs rant. Leading up to the championship game, he never tired of reminding viewers that Duke had made more free throws that season than its opponents had attempted. He suggests the crowd at Minneapolis had turned against Duke because they all know how many more free throws Duke shot than its opponents. He never bothered to tell his audience that Arizona had also made more free throws than their opponents had attempted _ in fact, by a much wider margin _ or that quite a few teams accomplish that feat. Barry Jacobs, who studied the issue, found 23 teams in a 20-year span that shot more free throws than their opponents attempted.
The irony is that after the championship game (when Duke made 13 free throws and Arizona attempted 19), Duke finished the season with less free throws made (697) than their opponents attempted (701).
There was another play in the championship game that allowed Packer to ramp up his officiating rant. Midway through the first half, Jason Williams â who already had two fouls â raced Arizonaâs Jason Gardner for a loose ball near midcourt. Gardner got there first and Williams ended up draped over his counterpart. They collided and Williams ended up on top of the Arizona guard, forming a bridge with his hands to allow Gardner to dribble out from under him.
Once again, Packer was beside himself by the officialsâ failure to call a third foul on Williams.
âOh boy, he was lucky there!â Packer exclaimed.
Only later, did a veteran official point out to me that the no-call was correct, based on Rule 4, Section 38, Article 2, which essentially says that contact in pursuit of a loose ball, âshould be permitted, even though the contact should be severe.â By allowing Gardner to escape without giving up his dribble, Williams did not gain an advantage in the scramble.
But such legalisms hardly mattered to Packer and given his soapbox, his constant repetition of the same theme â Duke is getting the calls ... the foul of Baxter was outrageous ... Duke shoots more free throws than their opponents attempt ... Williams should have committed his third foul in the scramble with Gardner â helped spread the Maryland paranoia to a national audience. Many writers and broadcasters picked the theme up and have pulled it out every time Duke benefits from a close or a wrong call â which does happen. Of course, the same pundits never balance those instances with the occasions when Duke is the victim of controversial or bad officiating, which every Duke fan knows happens too.
***
Now the story is back in the headlines, thanks to a controversial call at the end of the Duke-Boston College game and ESPNâs hysterical reaction to that play.
The Tyrese Rice-Shelden Williams no-call has produced not one, not two, but three Gameday segments, all labeled âDoes Duke get the calls?â On Thursday night, Friday night and again Saturday night, the issue was debated to death.
I felt sorry for Dick Vitale, who made the obvious point that even if a foul were called on the Rice-Williams play, that would have sent Rice to the line for two shots with Duke leading by three and just eight seconds left. But âDookie Vâ has been pigeonholed as a Duke apologist, so his points are hardly going to sway the skeptics out there.
I wish I could sit down with an ESPN producer and offer the following rebuttal:
-- First, was the Rice-Williams play really a foul on Williams?
Watching the ESPN tribunal, itâs not even a topic for debate. Even Jay Bilas concedes that it should have been called a foul. Thatâs why I was surprised when on ESPNâs Around the Horn, Bob Ryan â one of the nationâs most respected basketball writers and a BC graduate â argued that it was NOT a foul.
Iâd ask the ESPN producer to slow motion the play to demonstrate that there was no contact up high. Williams blocks the shot cleanly with his right hand, while his left arm is stretched behind him, away from the BC player. However, there is considerable body contact â I donât think Rice is flopping when he bounces off Williamsâ chest and ends up on his back. But ESPN has an overhead shot of the play that Iâd ask the producer to run â since it clearly shows that Williams is in position and goes straight up for the ball. Iâd explain the principal of verticality to the audience and point out that since Rice initiates the contact, a no-call is a perfectly reasonable reading of the play.
-- Second, Iâd find the guy who did the graphic â labeled âBlue Biasâ -- Thursday night that showed that Duke has made more free throws than their opponents have attempted.
Iâd ask him to make a graph to show how Dukeâs free throw differential compares to other top teams. For instance, a quick check shows that UConn has made 396 free throws this season â 54 more than its opponents have shot. And the discrepancy would be larger if the Huskies were as good a free throw shooting team as Duke. I might point out that North Carolina is another ACC team that has made more free throws than its opponent has attempted this season.
I might also pull the official NCAA stats that show that Duke is 48th in the average number of fouls accumulated each game. The Blue Devils have been whistled for far more fouls this year than No. 1 West Virginia (just 12.6 fouls a game), No. 7 Texas and No. 27 UConn. The NCAA doesnât list a stat for opponentsâ fouls accumulated, but the ESPN research staff could find that easily and see if Dukeâs foes are being whistled for an inordinate number of fouls.
-- Iâd demand that Doug Gottlieb offer some justification for his bald statement on Thursday nightâs GameDay: âDuke is the only team in the country that gets calls on the road.â
Maybe ESPN could compare the road free throw stats of various teams. Just look at UConn and Duke, for instance. In their last four road games, the Huskies have outshot Indiana at the foul line, 26-16 ... Providence at the foul line, 29-13 ... Louisville at the foul line 23-10 ... Syracuse at the foul line 34-21. Thatâs 52 more free throws in four games.
In contrast, Duke has shot 33 more free throws than its last four road opponents and has twice been out-shot by opponents (Georgetown and Virginia Tech). Thatâs almost exactly the same as Gonzaga, which has attempted 31 more free throws than its last four opponents.
So, Doug, is Duke REALLY the only team in the country that gets the calls on the road?
-- I would definitely spot shadow the play at the end of the Florida State-Duke game that shows that on Todd Gallowayâs drive in overtime, the ball went out off of Shelden Williams and not Galloway.
But Iâd also have a couple of other late calls to highlight â especially the rebounding play immediately after J.J. Redickâs 3-pointer made it 94-91. Al Thornton launches a 3 that misses. Josh McRoberts is in perfect position to make the play. But he is blatantly shoved in the back by Diego Romero and loses the ball out of bounds, giving FSU an extra possession down the stretch.
The point Iâd like to make is that, yes, Duke does sometimes get a break from the officials ... but (like almost every other team) the Blue Devils just as often fail to get the break. If I were working for ESPN, Iâd show the controversial Boozer-Baxter play and the Williams-Gardner plays ... and I counter that with clips of the Jared Jeffries non-foul on Boozer in the 2002 Duke-Indiana game, plus the Emeka Okafor shove of Deng and the no-call on Redickâs drive with 21 seconds left in the 2004 semifinals against UConn.
***
But those are just anecdotal events. Over the long course of a season, are the officials biased toward Duke?
A year ago, I did a study for the ACC Sports Journal, trying to track officiating bias in the ACC. I crunched a lot of numbers and talked to a lot of people to see if the widespread perception of pro-Duke officiating bias had any basis in fact.
Let me summarize what those numbers showed. To get a scientific breakdown, I measured free throw differential in all ACC regular season games over a 10-year period (1995-2004). By measuring differential, it eliminated the bias that tempo can inject (teams that play faster commit more fouls, but also are fouled more often). By sticking to conference games, I kept the same officiating pools and eliminated the differences that could crop up because of varying strength of schedules. Since the ACC played a balanced schedule in those years, I got a fair home and home balance.
I donât have time to update the study for the last year and a half, but hereâs what I found for the previous 10 years:
* The home team usually gets the calls: A sample of 20 different teams from five different seasons shows that every single one had a better FT differential at home than on the road. The 20-team average was 80.5 more free throws a season at home than on the road _ an average of almost exactly five free throws a game.
* The best teams get the calls: This shows up two ways. Over the 10 years studied, the relationship between ACC finish and FT differential is nearly a perfect curve (note: in cases where there was a tie in the standings, the FT differential was averaged and used for both positions):
The 10 first place teams averaged a plus 95.5 differential. That means that teams that won or tied for the ACC regular season title averaged shooting 95.5 more free throws per ACC season than their opponents shot against them _ thatâs an average of almost six more free throws a game.
- Second place: plus 49.9
- Third place: plus 23.4
- Fourth place: plus 14.2
- Fifth place: minus 5.2
- Sixth place: minus 34.3
- Seventh place: minus 46.6
- Eighth place: minus 44.1
- Ninth place: minus 56.3
We get similar results when we compare various ACC records with FT differential:
- 16-0 (one team): plus 126
- 15-1 (three teams): plus 113.3
- 14-2 (no teams)
- 13-3 (eight teams): plus 90.3
- 12-4 (six teams): plus 64.2
- 11-5 (six teams): plus 18.7
- 10-6 (four teams): plus 14.0
- 9-7 (10 teams): plus 21.7
- 8-8 (six teams): minus 13.0
- 7-9 (10 teams): minus 20.9
- 6-10 (12 teams): minus 32.1
- 5-11 (nine teams): minus 62.1
- 4-12 (nine teams): minus 50.2
- 3-13 (four teams): minus 21.5
- 2-12 (two teams): minus 80.0
There are a couple of blips that I would attribute to the small size of the sample _ 9-7 teams have a slightly better differential than 10-6 teams and 3-13 teams have almost exactly the same differential as 7-9 teams! Still, the breakdown shows what we would expect _ on the whole, the better teams have a better FT differential.
So how does this apply to Duke and the perception that the Devils benefit from an officiating bias?
When I broke down the numbers by team, I found that over the 10 years of the study, Duke had the second-best FT differential (a cumulative plus 473), behind UNC (plus 542). Over the last five years of the study, Duke has the best FT differential (plus 333), ahead of Wake Forest (plus 176) and UNC (plus 168).
But Duke also has the best ACC record over both spans. Was Duke really getting the benefit of the whistles or were the FT numbers what youâd expect for such a successful team?
When I compared Dukeâs yearly FT numbers and its yearly finish and measured that against the ACC average, a surprising pattern became clear.
Duke finished first in the ACC six times in the 10 years of the study. As I noted, the ACC average for first-place teams was a plus 95.5 FT differential. Duke was better than that twice _ in 1999 and 2000. Duke was below the average four times. The Devils also finished second twice _ both times with FT differentials below the ACC average for second-place finishers. And in its fourth-place finish in 1996, Duke was at minus 36 _ well below the ACC average.
Thatâs seven times in 10 years that Dukeâs FT differential was LESS than expected.
If you compare FT differential with ACC records, Duke shows up above the ACC average just once in its top seven seasons _ in 2000 (although thereâs no comparison for Dukeâs 16-0 mark in 1999).
The study did show that there may be something to Gary Williamsâ constant griping. Maryland finished below the expected FT differential six times in the 10 years, including 1999, when a 13-3 team was at minus 39, and in 2000 when an 11-5 team was at minus 50. Those are the two most out-of-whack FT differential numbers in the study.
So who was getting the calls, if not Duke or Maryland?
Wake Forest is one team that has accumulated better FT numbers than its record would predict, especially in the last two years of the study. And while not covered in the study, the Deacons finished last year with the best FT differential in ACC play (plus 107), just ahead of UNC (plus 100) and well ahead of Duke (plus 73).
But the one team that had the most consistently impressive numbers in the study was North Carolina, which surpassed its expected FT differential in the seven straight seasons. Hereâs one interesting tidbit to chew on: over the last five seasons of the study, UNC and N.C. State had exactly the same 40-40 ACC record. UNCâs FT differential over that span was plus 168 ... N.C. Stateâs was minus 75.
Maybe the era of âCarolina refsâ is not dead.
The feedback I got from the people I talked during my research was interesting. I talked to four former ACC officials, who all agreed that while there was no bias toward Duke, the atmosphere in Cameron and Krzyzewskiâs sideline demeanor could provide the Devils with an advantage.
âThere is a perception out there that the floor is uneven at Cameron,â one former ACC official said. âThere is probably a group who feel that [former ACC director of officials Fred Barakat] is so powerful because he makes the schedules and because they know that Fred Barakat and Mike Krzyzewski are very close. The strong ones stand up to it, but the younger refs ... itâs got to affect them.â
But when asked if there was a pro-Duke officiating bias, another former ACC official said: âItâs always bias in the eyes of the beholder. It depends on who you root for.â
That doesnât stop the conspiracy theories. For instance, I asked one very well-known official if there was bias in the ACC officiating: âI canât answer that,â he said. âI would question why one ref has so many Duke games. Whether there is any validity to it or not, perception is reality. Other coaches are going to have their suspicions.â
This official pointed out that one official worked 11 Duke games in the 2003-04 season.
âI wonât tell you his name,â the official said. âBut check it out. That will open your eyes.â
Well, it did check out. Karl Hess worked 11 Duke games during the 2003-04 season.
The only trouble, itâs hard to see where Hessâ heavy Blue Devil workload fits into the Duke conspiracy theory. Three of his Duke games were non-conference games that werenât competitive. In the eight ACC games he worked _ six regular season and two in the ACC Tournament _ Duke was 5-3. In the 11 ACC games he didnât work that year, Duke was 10-1. Hess called technicals on Krzyzewski in both Dukeâs loss to Georgia Tech in Durham and 10 days later, when the Devils beat Georgia Tech in the ACC Tournament semifinals.
Hess also worked the ACC title game when four Duke players fouled out and the Terps out-shot the Devils 44-31 from the free throw line.
Is that supposed to be evidence of a pro-Duke conspiracy?
Thatâs the trouble with a lot of conspiracy claims _ they donât stand up to scrutiny. Reggie Cofer worked the second-most Duke games in 2003-04 (eight), but the same referee who suggested that Hessâ heavy workload indicated something also said, âReggie is one of the refs who isnât influenced by Krzyzewskiâs act.â
So who is pulling the strings of this conspiracy?
***
On Sunday morning, the DBR posted a short, but insightful comment about the controversy.
If there is a pro-Duke conspiracy, how does it work? Would UNC grad Johnny Swofford allow Fred Barakat and now John Clougherty to orchestrate a pro-Duke conspiracy? And if the ACC refs are giving Duke the calls, what happened in Minneapolis in 2001?
Ted Hillary, Mark Reischling and David Libby worked the Duke-Maryland game. Scott Thornley, Ed Corbett and Gerald Boudreaux worked the Duke-Arizona game. None of those officials work for the ACC. None were under the thumb of Fred Barakat. Are we to suppose that NCAA director of officials Hank Nichols is also in on the conspiracy?
Gary Williams might have had a point that CBS and the NCAA preferred a Duke-Arizona championship matchup, but why in the world would the refs have given Duke the breaks against the Wildcats?
Arizonaâs Lute Olson is also a Hall of Fame coach and was a sympathetic figure with the tragic death of his wife Bobbie that season. Plus, 2001 NCAA executive director Cedric Dempsey was the athletic director at Arizona before taking the NCAA job. Jim Livengood, the man who replaced Dempsey at as AD at Arizona, was on the Menâs Basketball Committee.
Why would those guys help Duke beat Arizona?
Of course, the long-time contention was that Barakat, who once coached against Krzyzewski in the ECAC, was the mastermind of the pro-Duke conspiracy. That doesnât explain why the issue has cropped up again this season with John Clougherty calling the shots.
As long as weâre spinning conspiracy theories, maybe I should offer some of my own. Billy Packer has admitted that he desperately want to attend Duke out of high school and was so bitter when coach Hal Bradley put him on hold that he committed to Wake Forest without a visit because he knew the Deacs played against Duke. His hatred had to be inflamed when Duke upset his top-seeded Wake team in the 1960 ACC finals, holding him to 2 of 11 shooting. And we all remember the incident at Cameron a few years ago when Packer was embarrassed by a confrontation with a Duke coed who had the nerve to ask him to show his press credentials.
Then thereâs Doug Gottlieb. He told me in 1998 that he dreamed of playing for Duke ... of following in the footsteps of Bobby Hurley. That dream was quashed when K didnât recruit him. However, Gottlieb also said that his biggest dream was to play in a Final Four â a dream Duke killed when the Devils beat Gottlieb and Oklahoma State in the 1998 NCAA second round in Lexington, Ky.
And what about Digger Phelps? His problems with Duke started when Bill Foster beat him out in a bitter recruiting battle for Gene Banks. Then Banks and the Blue Devils beat the only Phelps-coached team to reach the Final Four. Phelps lost another big recruiting battle to Mike Krzyzewski when Johnny Dawkins picked Duke over Notre Dame. He had to watch as Krzyzewskiâs Blue Devils climbed to greatness, while his own program faded â in large part because he kept losing good academic/athletic prospects to Duke.
Then thereâs ESPN itself, located just a few minutes from the UConn campus. Is it just coincidence that every time they have a graph showing Dukeâs advantage in fouls, they ignore similar or greater disparities in UConnâs favor?
Do I really believe any of that?
Of course, not ... I merely offer it as evidence as to how easy it is to spin conspiracy webs. I donât think that Packer or Gottlieb of ESPN are any more anti-Duke than I think that John Clougherty is pro-Duke. (Digger is another story, but letâs not go there at this time).
No, I do not believe in any anti-Duke conspiracy, but Iâm beginning to fear that the constant repetition of the slur that Duke benefits from officiating bias will begin to (or already has had) an impact on the way games are called. Officials are human and donât like to hear that they favor one team or another. I donât think itâs farfetched to suggest that at a future date, an official might hesitate to give Duke a borderline call for fear that heâll be the focus of the next ESPN Gameday segment.
And when it happens, it will all be Billy Packerâs fault.