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A Statistical Look At Redick's & Williams' Careers

Doug and Gregg vonBushberger put together some interesting stuff on the careers and of J.J. Redick and Shelden
Williams and the stats they have compiled. There are two charts, which are basically self-explanatory, and chock-full
of info. Check 'em out! They are at the bottom of the column.

As most Duke fans probably realize, J.J. Redick has a chance to surpass
Dawkins for the all-time Duke record this year. What may NOT be as
well-known is just how likely he is to break the record. In fact, the
safe money is on J.J. owning the record by season's end. If you assume
that Duke will make it to the final game in the ACCs, and get three
games into the NCAA tournament (making a 36-game season), Redick only
needs to average 20.4 points per game for the rest of the season to
break the record. No mean feat, granted, but the word "only" is
appropriate because this average is more than two points per game below
his current average (22.7) and nearly 1.5 points per game lower than his
average last year (21.8). Based on the first seven games of the 2006
season, Redick's looking in form and likely to maintain his average
going forward.

(It's worth noting that Redick is nearly as likely to break the all-time
ACC scoring record of 2,587 points, set by Dickie Hemric (Wake) -- in
only 104 games. And note further that Dawkins didn't have the
three-point line in his day. He was a terrific outside shooter, so who
knows how many more points he'd have had.)

While we were at it, we added Shelden's numbers into the mix. We were
surprised to learn that he has a shot (however remote) at breaking into
Duke's top-10 all-time scorers list, and will very likely make it into
the top 15. Duke's only two top-ten scorers who graduated together were
Johnny Dawkins and Mark Alarie. The last two top-ten Dukies who played
together (different classes) were Jason Williams and Shane Battier.
Rarefied air.

Attached is a copy of a spreadsheet we put together showing sensitivity
analyses on Redick's pursuit of the record, and Shelden's pursuit of the
top 15.

As impressive as Shelden's scoring accomplishments are, the categories
in which he can make the most indelible marks are blocked shots and
rebounds. Shelden needs 35 blocks to become Duke’s all-time leader
(Gminksi has 345; Shelden has 311). Shelden needs 295 boards to own the
all-time record (Gminski has 1242; Shelden has 948). Assuming the same
36-game 2006 season, Shelden would need to average 1.21 blocks per game
and 10.17 rebounds per game, over the final 29 games, to eclipse both
records. This year he averages 3.7 blocks and 10.0 boards. Last year he
averaged 3.7 and 11.2. So he should destroy the blocks record and has a
good shot at the boards record.

Further record-busting potential of the soon-to-be-retired Number Four:

- Redick needs to average 23.52 points per game over the next 29 games
(assumes a 36-game season) to break Jason Williams' single season
scoring record of 841 points. If Duke happens to make it to the final
games of both the ACCs and the NCAAs (i.e., 39-game season), he only has
to average 21.31 points per game.

  • Redick needs six 3-pointers to become Duke’s all-time leader. Trajan
    has 342. J.J. has 337.
  • Redick needs 77 3-pointers to become the ACC and NCAA all-time leader.
    Curtis Staples currently leads with 413.
  • Redick would need to miss his next 42 free throws to move behind
    Langdon on Duke’s all-time FT percentage list.