In the latest Sagarin ratings, which are pretty close to the RPI ratings,
here's what we see, ACC first:
- Duke #1
- Wake #5
- Georgia Tech #11
- NCSU #12
- UNC #13
- Maryland #25
- Florida State #27
- Virginia #58
St. Joe's, Gonzaga, and Stanford are ranked 2,3, and 4. UConn,
Mississippi State, Texas, Oklahoma State, and Kentucky round out the Top
10. Pitt, Providence, Cincinnati, Illinois, Louisville, and Florida round
20-30 gets into longshots: Vandy, Southern Illinois, South Carolina,
Memphis, Maryland, Kansas, Florida State, Seton Hall, Arizona, and Charlotte.
After that, it gets a bit longer still: BYU, Texas Tech, Utah State,
Syracuse, Alabama, Nevada, Western Michigan, UTEP, Air Force, and Utah.
In the next tier, chances of an at-large bid are about zip unless you are in
a power conference: BC, LSU, UAB, Missouri, Michigan State, Richmond,
Colorado, Oklahoma, Dayton, Kent State.
To round it out, Virginia's tier: Troy State, Rice, Murray State, Purdue, GW,
Nebraska, Xavier, UVa, Manhattan, and Villanova.
But lo! Ratings are not infallible. Florida will be lucky to get
in, even at #20. Arizona is pushing their luck. BYU, Nevada, Western
Michigan, UTEP, Air Force, Utah - who can honestly say any of these schools
deserve a bid more than Maryland, Florida State or Virginia?
The ACC has a couple of good arguments: Most everyone is highly ranked, and
the conference has just been brutal. Second, and just as importantly, the
rest of the nation has been pretty bad, particularly some major
conferences. The PAC-10 stinks, the Big Ten is wretched. The A-10 is
Really, with such strong performances, chances are that at least two schools
will be screwed on selection day, and maybe three. What's really annoying
is that the SEC will get at least as many and possibly more. Not to knock
the Situational Ethics Conference, but c'mon. Certainly Kentucky is in,
and a good bet to win it all. Mississippi State is also in and
legit. South Carolina is also a deserving team. Dave Odom has done a
great job. But Florida? Alabama? Why?
Anyway, it's going to be a controversial evening. Let's hope the ACC is