Early Entry Update

So here's the latest list of the guys who are leaving early.  We're up
to 28 now, which means one per team!  

Realistically though a lot of these guys aren't going to be first round
picks.  There are some seniors like Battier and Loren Woods who will push
them out, then there are the foreign guys like the 7-6 Chinese guy who someone
will take despite the fact that he might never get to play in the U.S. That was the scenario for years with Arvidas Sabonis, who eventually got here, but in those days you could use a 4th round pick and lock him up in the event that he actually got out. Things are not that simple anymore.

You  also have to figure if Forte comes out, as now seems likely, he'll
push someone out of the first round. So who's likely to have screwed up?

• ACC wise, you have to wonder a bit about Will Solomon. He's had a super
  career, but there's no market for a 6-1 shooting guard. He'll have to learn
  a new position. Can he do it? 
• Damien Wilkins has been ridiculed by a lot of people, us included. But
  here's another side of it. Either his dad and uncle are delusional or maybe
  they just see things we can't.  What if he comes out and tears it up?
  What would that say about Sendek?
• Kevin Lyde is a big guy but earlier in the year we read he had bad
  wheels.  But with so many missed shots in the NBA, maybe his rebounding
  ability will get him by.
• SirValiant can't shoot and turns the ball over, so mark him down as
  foolhardy until he proves otherwise.
• Armstrong we don't know.
• Griffin has the talent but he has destroyed two teams in a row. We
  wouldn't take the chance.  Incidentally, Bill Guthridge took a pass on
  Griffin and Omar Cook - and James White.  Does he still seem stupid?
  Not to us.
• Bradley and Murphy can count on being first round picks and having solid
  careers, which is not to say they'll be All-Stars. But they are both pretty
  sound fundamentally.
• Zach Randolph will have to prove it. He has the talent, but he has post
  skills mostly, and at 6-9, he won't be playing the post. He'll need to get
  ready for Chris Webber and Karl Malone and the like.
• Jason Richardson has the athleticism and is highly sought after. 
  He's got a great shot at sticking and excelling.
• Hunter is skinny and weak - a 3rd rate Loren Woods.
• Rodney White we haven't seen enough of, but we bet his short-term future
  is brighter than Zach Randolph's.
• Satterfield will have a tough time, and Simmons might, too.
• Johnson we don't know well enough, but Wallace, despite an awesome high
  school rep, averaged only 6 ppg at Alabama as a frosh.  That's
  ridiculous, coming out on the strength of that.
• Prince is skinny but likely will stick. The next Reggie?
• Even Keith Bogans mom says he's making a mistake. We'll take her word for
  it.
• Haston - besides Isaiah, how many IU players have stuck, let alone come
  out early?
• The Arizona kids - Gardner is stupid for trying, Arenas might make it and
  Jefferson will, but Wright probably won't. There's no market for short,
  slow, power players.
• We know nothing about Kedrick Brown.
• Chandler will be a high pick as will Curry. Cisse has huge talent but no
  skills. It's not a finishing school.  Diop is enormous and will go on
  potential, probably fairly high.

 

So in our book the  immediate losers are likely to be Wilkins, Solomon,
Brown,  Hunter, Satterfield,  Bogans, Gardner, and Cisse.  Unless
they stun people, they'll fall to the second round, meaning they can be cut at
any point. There are no guaranteed contracts for second rounders. Longer term,
we'd guess that Lyde, Johnson, Wallace, and possibly White will stunt their
development.