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Early Entry Update

So here's the latest list of the guys who are leaving early.  We're up
to 28 now, which means one per team!  

Realistically though a lot of these guys aren't going to be first round
picks.  There are some seniors like Battier and Loren Woods who will push
them out, then there are the foreign guys like the 7-6 Chinese guy who someone
will take despite the fact that he might never get to play in the U.S. That was the scenario for years with Arvidas Sabonis, who eventually got here, but in those days you could use a 4th round pick and lock him up in the event that he actually got out. Things are not that simple anymore.

You  also have to figure if Forte comes out, as now seems likely, he'll
push someone out of the first round. So who's likely to have screwed up?

Name Class Pos Hgt Wgt School Conference
Will Solomon SO G 6-1 185 Clemson ACC
Damien Wilkins SO F 6-6 225 NC State ACC
Kevin Lyde JR F 6-9 240 Temple A-10
SirValiant Brown SO G 6-1 158 George Washington A-10
Brandon Armstrong JR C 6-4 180 Pepperdine WCC
Eddie Griffin FR F 6-9 205 Seton Hall BIG
EAST
Michael Bradley JR C 6-11  245 Villanova BIG
EAST
Troy Murphy JR F 6-11  245 Notre Dame BIG
EAST
Zach Randolph FR C 6-9 270 Michigan State BIG
10
Jason Richardson SO F 6-6 220 Michigan State BIG
10
Steven Hunter SO C 7-0 215 DePaul C-USA
Rodney White FR F 6-9 230 Charlotte C-USA
Kenny Satterfield SO G 6-2 185 Cincinnati C-USA
Bobby Simmons JR G 6-7 210 Depaul C-USA
Joe Johnson SO F 6-8 225 Arkansas SEC
Gerald Wallace FR F 6-7 210 Alabama SEC
Tayshaun Prince JR G/F 6-9 215 Kentucky SEC
Keith Bogans SO G 6-5 205 Kentucky SEC
Kirk Haston JR F/C 6-10  230 Indiana BIG
10
Jason Gardner SO G 5-11  181 Arizona PAC-10
Gilbert Arenas SO G 6-3 200 Arizona PAC-10
Richard Jefferson JR F 6-7 222 Arizona PAC-10
Michael Wright JR F 6-7 238 Arizona PAC-10
Kedrick Brown JR F 6-7 225 Okaloosa-Walton CC (FLA) XXX
Tyson Chandler HS C 7-1 195 Dominguez HS XXX
Ousmane Cisse HS F 6-8 250 St. Jude HS XXX
Eddy Curry HS C 6-11  290 Thornwood HS XXX
Sagana Diop HS C 7-0 310 Oak HIll Academy HS XXX
  • ACC wise, you have to wonder a bit about Will Solomon. He's had a super
    career, but there's no market for a 6-1 shooting guard. He'll have to learn
    a new position. Can he do it? 
  • Damien Wilkins has been ridiculed by a lot of people, us included. But
    here's another side of it. Either his dad and uncle are delusional or maybe
    they just see things we can't.  What if he comes out and tears it up?
    What would that say about Sendek?
  • Kevin Lyde is a big guy but earlier in the year we read he had bad
    wheels.  But with so many missed shots in the NBA, maybe his rebounding
    ability will get him by.
  • SirValiant can't shoot and turns the ball over, so mark him down as
    foolhardy until he proves otherwise.
  • Armstrong we don't know.
  • Griffin has the talent but he has destroyed two teams in a row. We
    wouldn't take the chance.  Incidentally, Bill Guthridge took a pass on
    Griffin and Omar Cook - and James White.  Does he still seem stupid?
    Not to us.
  • Bradley and Murphy can count on being first round picks and having solid
    careers, which is not to say they'll be All-Stars. But they are both pretty
    sound fundamentally.
  • Zach Randolph will have to prove it. He has the talent, but he has post
    skills mostly, and at 6-9, he won't be playing the post. He'll need to get
    ready for Chris Webber and Karl Malone and the like.
  • Jason Richardson has the athleticism and is highly sought after. 
    He's got a great shot at sticking and excelling.
  • Hunter is skinny and weak - a 3rd rate Loren Woods.
  • Rodney White we haven't seen enough of, but we bet his short-term future
    is brighter than Zach Randolph's.
  • Satterfield will have a tough time, and Simmons might, too.
  • Johnson we don't know well enough, but Wallace, despite an awesome high
    school rep, averaged only 6 ppg at Alabama as a frosh.  That's
    ridiculous, coming out on the strength of that.
  • Prince is skinny but likely will stick. The next Reggie?
  • Even Keith Bogans mom says he's making a mistake. We'll take her word for
    it.
  • Haston - besides Isaiah, how many IU players have stuck, let alone come
    out early?
  • The Arizona kids - Gardner is stupid for trying, Arenas might make it and
    Jefferson will, but Wright probably won't. There's no market for short,
    slow, power players.
  • We know nothing about Kedrick Brown.
  • Chandler will be a high pick as will Curry. Cisse has huge talent but no
    skills. It's not a finishing school.  Diop is enormous and will go on
    potential, probably fairly high.

 

So in our book the  immediate losers are likely to be Wilkins, Solomon,
Brown,  Hunter, Satterfield,  Bogans, Gardner, and Cisse.  Unless
they stun people, they'll fall to the second round, meaning they can be cut at
any point. There are no guaranteed contracts for second rounders. Longer term,
we'd guess that Lyde, Johnson, Wallace, and possibly White will stunt their
development.