OK, we're all going to play a little game at the start here, and it's called "Let's pretend Jumbo wrote this last Friday before the B.C. game, like he was supposed to have done." Cool? Fantastic! So, anyway, Phase IV does capture the period from the game at B.C. through the end of the regular season (when some team with fugly uniforms comes into Cameron). So over that nine-game stretch, here are the questions I'll ponder and analyze.

1) Can Duke stay healthy?
As I've said, this is the most important part of every phase this season. And nothing is a close second.

2) Can Duke take the most important step in truly running an excellent motion offense by becoming a better, more aware, passing team?
This is critical in so many different ways. Start with the three perimeter players. They're all terrific in so many areas, but I'd say that only Jon Scheyer has above average court vision. Nolan Smith is an attack-oriented guard -- as Duke needs him to be -- but did go through a stretch earlier in the season where he really seemed to understand how to play a drive and kick game. Lately, he hasn't been as good in that area. And a less-emphasized portion of the game in which Kyle Singler has struggled this season has been in his passing, particularly off the dribble. Often, he's missing open perimeter players when all that is necessary is a good kick-out or skip pass. I suspect this is just another aspect of adapting to playing on the perimeter, and that his head is down in part because he's protecting the ball against smaller, quicker players. But, first and foremost, they must get better at recognizing when another member of the trio has a better shot, and deliver the ball quicker.

But it doesn't stop there. All three perimeter players need to recognize that when Duke is running motion and constantly setting screens off the ball that the bigs are, and will be, open. Essentially, the guys guarding the big men are cheating when they set screens, helping prevent the perimeter players from catching a quick pass and daring Duke to make a pass from beyond the arc that a big man would have to catch and finish. The reasoning is sound -- Duke's bigs have had problems simply catching in some games, let alone finishing. But for Duke to take the next step, the guards have to trust the bigs and deliver those passes. Maybe it'll cost the team a win down the way. But if they keep hitting them, I have faith that enough members of the quintet will deliver that defenses will be forceed to respect them, which in turn will make them even more effective screeners and open things back up on the perimeter.

So, go forth with this motion-based approach. But if you're in for a dime, Coach K, then go in for a dollar. Push the guys to execute motion the way it was built to be run.

3) Is Miles Plumlee just in a slump, or has he regressed?
Every since his huge performance against Wake Forest, Miles has struggled, averaging just 2 ppg and 3.2 rpg, with only 2 total blocks and just 5-of-18 shooting in 6 games. He's been averaging 15 mpg in that span and is committing 2.5 fouls per contest. Clearly, that needs to change. But can it? His confidence has to be hurting. The good thing is that Duke has legit depth inside, and Zoubek and Thomas continue to show real progress as seniors. But Duke needs the added dynamic Miles can bring for roughly have the game, with his mobility, weakside rebounding and explosiveness around the hoop to catch and finish.

4) What is a realistic expectation for Mason Plumlee at this point?
Clearly, Mason isn't the player I expected to see this season, and I'm sure the wrist injury is largely to blame. That said, he has some bad habits that haven't been cured in 17 games, 251 minutes and 2-plus months of practice. He's losing his man far too often on defense. He's making risky, senseless passes on offense. When he gets the ball near the hoop, he's not playing through contact to finish. He's shooting free throws poorly. And, perhaps worst of all, he's committing some truly silly fouls -- reach-ins off rebounds, frustration fouls after misses, etc. These things haven't improved much over time.

Now, progress isn't always linear, and he could go from making these mistakes to not making them in a day, I guess. At the same time, I think we've all been waiting for a "light bulb moment," and that might be expecting too much. I still think he can elevate Duke to a different level this year, but it's going to have be in limited areas. His back-to-the-basket game just isn't developed yet, and he'll need an offseason to learn some low-post moves. So Duke just isn't going to be able to dump the ball into him on the block and let him go to work. Instead, let's hope for growth in the areas I mentioned above during this period. All of them share a common theme -- simplifying the game. On defense, I have faith that he can learn where he needs to be within the team's scheme. If that happens, the game should slow down, and his instincts should be able to take over, allowing him to react better to be a weakside shotblocker, strong rebounder, etc. Hopefully that will lead to less fouling. On offense, he needs to catch strong, go up strong, and finish strong. If he's just simply stronger with the ball, perhaps he'll stop forcing more advanced plays -- both passes and shots. He can still be a really good comlementary player by the end of this period. But that progress needs to start now.

5) Can Duke consistently shoot (reasonably) well from the perimeter, particularly on the road?
Duke in Cameron (13 games): .499 FG%; .442 3PT%.
Duke outside of Cameron (10 games): .413 FG%; .317 3PT%.
That's a glaring difference and it needs to change. Duke needs Scheyer, Smith and Singler to be steady shooters when they get open looks, regardless of where they are playing. That doesn't mean they need to be great every night, or that all three guys have to be on at once. But they have to knock down enough open jumpers to keep the other aspects of the offense flowing.

6) Speaking of 3-point shooting, will Duke find a fourth perimeter scorer?
I can't stand the pointless, endless, ridiculous, rambling, uneducated (is this strong enough yet?) debates about "depth" in the abstract. Actually, I probably can state that even stronger, but there's no point. Depth, as a concept, means nothing. Weaknesses, on the other hand, matter. And Duke could use someone else who could knock down a jumper besides the three perimeter starters.
Here's what I know: Andre Dawkins is struggling big-time right now, and Coach K is handling him the right way. If Coach K doesn't trust his ball-handling (which is clear) or his defense (also clear), then it doesn't make sense to throw him out there and reinforce bad habits, especially given that he's young and has been through an incredible ordeal. That doesn't mean, though, that he can't make progress in practice so that at some point, he's ready to contribute again. And if that point comes where he's able to do those other things at a decent level, we know he has a beautiful stroke.
Until that time comes, though, K seems intent on increasing Ryan Kelly's role as a perimeter player. He has remarked on several occasions that the added emphasis on motion offense will help Kelly. And Kelly can help Duke by confidently taking open 3s and making them. He's getting legit first-half minutes now, and if he plays well, he can earn some time in the second half, too. It would be nice to know that if there's a game where the Big 3 are struggling, someone else might be able to hit a 3-pointer or two to get things going. Ideally, Duke will have two options off the bench by the end of the season. But I'd gladly settle for one.

7) Can Duke get a handle on its, uh, handling opponents?
Duke fouls too much. Period. And it's basically all coming from the bigs. I don't mind aggressive fouls fighting for a rebound or a blocked shot or trying to take a charger or even the occasional moving screen. Here's what I don't like: Reaching in after someone else has snared a rebound. Pushing guys in the back when you have no position. Hand-checking. Holding jerseys. Look, it's an incredibly fine line to walk when you are trying to prove to opponents that you can be as physical as anyone out there, while simultaneously making sure you don't foul. But Duke is letting teams get in the bonus too easily through fouls off the ball. The big guys simply have to be more disciplined. As a corollary, Duke needs to do a better job of getting to the free throw line, because the foul shooting differential you'd expect from a top team just isn't there. But I think properly executing the motion offense should take care of some of the offensive concerns. The bigger issue is the defensive/loose-ball fouls, which also undermine an excellent defensive effort on too many occasions.

8) Can Duke maintain consistent energy and attention to detail?
This connects directly to the point about defense above. This, for the most part, is an outstanding defensive team. Coach K has said enough. Duke can play outstanding D against anyone, and must play outstanding D to win big. But there have been lapses, particularly against NC State and Georgetown. Did the guys get that problem out of their system in those games? Are they ready to give all-out effort every night, to communicate well, to focus on the little things that matter so much in big games? Time to show us.

9) Late-game execution
Can Duke improve what little we've seen of its late-game execution? This team has barely played any close games, which is why the Boston College game was so important. That said, we've seen three areas that need to be improved:
A) Running the offense with the same discipline and precision as earlier in the game and not forcing low-percentage shots. We saw this mostly against Georgia Tech, but if Duke gets into more close games, it will be interesting to see what the team tries to do. I still like the ball in Scheyer's hands as a decision-maker. I still like knowing that Nolan can get a decent shot with the shot-clock winding down (that's why I like him off the ball to start these plays -- I don't think he sees the floor well enough to start things and get us the best possible shot, but he can finish quickly). And, I think if Duke really, really needs a bucket, my first option would still be to post Singler. He continues to show that he can abuse smaller opponents if he gets the ball on the block. If Duke finds itself in a few close games in this stretch, let's see if they go to that approach.
B) Finishing off good defensive possessions with tough rebounds. That cost Duke against Georgia Tech and almost cost them against B.C. Just finish the play.
C) Getting the ball to Jon Scheyer when the other team is fouling late. That was the biggest flaw in the whole final sequence against Boston College. Duke has a 90% FT shooter and couldn't get him to the line. Now, B.C. was putting two guys on him and even using a third to help off Dawkins/Kelly to deny Scheyer. But if Duke could consistently get J.J. Redick the ball in those situations, Coach K should be able to draw up enough stuff to do the same for Scheyer. I can't stress enough how much of a priority this needs to be. Smith is quicker and stronger, so he might have a slightly easier time of getting open. And he's a good FT shooter who wants the ball. But he's not a 90% guy. The whole team needs to be clear that in those situations, the ball goes to Scheyer. End of story. So from the design of the play to the decision by the inbounder (usually Singler) to the precision of the screens, to the cuts and reads by Scheyer himself, Duke has to take advantage of such a valuable weapon.

Anyway, that's what's on my mind as Duke enters the final phase of the regular season. I'm too tired and lazy to check for typos right now, but I suppose I can do that some other time. Looking forward to reading what everyone else has to say. Go Duke!