Phase IV -- 2009-10

[Jumbo]

OK, we're all going to play a little game at the start here, and it's called "Let's pretend Jumbo wrote this last Friday before the B.C. game, like he was supposed to have done." Cool? Fantastic! So, anyway, Phase IV does capture the period from the game at B.C. through the end of the regular season (when some team with fugly uniforms comes into Cameron). So over that nine-game stretch, here are the questions I'll ponder and analyze.

1) Can Duke stay healthy?
As I've said, this is the most important part of every phase this season. And nothing is a close second.

2) Can Duke take the most important step in truly running an excellent motion offense by becoming a better, more aware, passing team?
This is critical in so many different ways. Start with the three perimeter players. They're all terrific in so many areas, but I'd say that only Jon Scheyer has above average court vision. Nolan Smith is an attack-oriented guard -- as Duke needs him to be -- but did go through a stretch earlier in the season where he really seemed to understand how to play a drive and kick game. Lately, he hasn't been as good in that area. And a less-emphasized portion of the game in which Kyle Singler has struggled this season has been in his passing, particularly off the dribble. Often, he's missing open perimeter players when all that is necessary is a good kick-out or skip pass. I suspect this is just another aspect of adapting to playing on the perimeter, and that his head is down in part because he's protecting the ball against smaller, quicker players. But, first and foremost, they must get better at recognizing when another member of the trio has a better shot, and deliver the ball quicker.

But it doesn't stop there. All three perimeter players need to recognize that when Duke is running motion and constantly setting screens off the ball that the bigs are, and will be, open. Essentially, the guys guarding the big men are cheating when they set screens, helping prevent the perimeter players from catching a quick pass and daring Duke to make a pass from beyond the arc that a big man would have to catch and finish. The reasoning is sound -- Duke's bigs have had problems simply catching in some games, let alone finishing. But for Duke to take the next step, the guards have to trust the bigs and deliver those passes. Maybe it'll cost the team a win down the way. But if they keep hitting them, I have faith that enough members of the quintet will deliver that defenses will be forceed to respect them, which in turn will make them even more effective screeners and open things back up on the perimeter.

So, go forth with this motion-based approach. But if you're in for a dime, Coach K, then go in for a dollar. Push the guys to execute motion the way it was built to be run.

3) Is Miles Plumlee just in a slump, or has he regressed?
Every since his huge performance against Wake Forest, Miles has struggled, averaging just 2 ppg and 3.2 rpg, with only 2 total blocks and just 5-of-18 shooting in 6 games. He's been averaging 15 mpg in that span and is committing 2.5 fouls per contest. Clearly, that needs to change. But can it? His confidence has to be hurting. The good thing is that Duke has legit depth inside, and Zoubek and Thomas continue to show real progress as seniors. But Duke needs the added dynamic Miles can bring for roughly have the game, with his mobility, weakside rebounding and explosiveness around the hoop to catch and finish.

4) What is a realistic expectation for Mason Plumlee at this point?
Clearly, Mason isn't the player I expected to see this season, and I'm sure the wrist injury is largely to blame. That said, he has some bad habits that haven't been cured in 17 games, 251 minutes and 2-plus months of practice. He's losing his man far too often on defense. He's making risky, senseless passes on offense. When he gets the ball near the hoop, he's not playing through contact to finish. He's shooting free throws poorly. And, perhaps worst of all, he's committing some truly silly fouls -- reach-ins off rebounds, frustration fouls after misses, etc. These things haven't improved much over time.

Now, progress isn't always linear, and he could go from making these mistakes to not making them in a day, I guess. At the same time, I think we've all been waiting for a "light bulb moment," and that might be expecting too much. I still think he can elevate Duke to a different level this year, but it's going to have be in limited areas. His back-to-the-basket game just isn't developed yet, and he'll need an offseason to learn some low-post moves. So Duke just isn't going to be able to dump the ball into him on the block and let him go to work. Instead, let's hope for growth in the areas I mentioned above during this period. All of them share a common theme -- simplifying the game. On defense, I have faith that he can learn where he needs to be within the team's scheme. If that happens, the game should slow down, and his instincts should be able to take over, allowing him to react better to be a weakside shotblocker, strong rebounder, etc. Hopefully that will lead to less fouling. On offense, he needs to catch strong, go up strong, and finish strong. If he's just simply stronger with the ball, perhaps he'll stop forcing more advanced plays -- both passes and shots. He can still be a really good comlementary player by the end of this period. But that progress needs to start now.

5) Can Duke consistently shoot (reasonably) well from the perimeter, particularly on the road?
Duke in Cameron (13 games): .499 FG%; .442 3PT%.
Duke outside of Cameron (10 games): .413 FG%; .317 3PT%.
That's a glaring difference and it needs to change. Duke needs Scheyer, Smith and Singler to be steady shooters when they get open looks, regardless of where they are playing. That doesn't mean they need to be great every night, or that all three guys have to be on at once. But they have to knock down enough open jumpers to keep the other aspects of the offense flowing.

6) Speaking of 3-point shooting, will Duke find a fourth perimeter scorer?
I can't stand the pointless, endless, ridiculous, rambling, uneducated (is this strong enough yet?) debates about "depth" in the abstract. Actually, I probably can state that even stronger, but there's no point. Depth, as a concept, means nothing. Weaknesses, on the other hand, matter. And Duke could use someone else who could knock down a jumper besides the three perimeter starters.
Here's what I know: Andre Dawkins is struggling big-time right now, and Coach K is handling him the right way. If Coach K doesn't trust his ball-handling (which is clear) or his defense (also clear), then it doesn't make sense to throw him out there and reinforce bad habits, especially given that he's young and has been through an incredible ordeal. That doesn't mean, though, that he can't make progress in practice so that at some point, he's ready to contribute again. And if that point comes where he's able to do those other things at a decent level, we know he has a beautiful stroke.
Until that time comes, though, K seems intent on increasing Ryan Kelly's role as a perimeter player. He has remarked on several occasions that the added emphasis on motion offense will help Kelly. And Kelly can help Duke by confidently taking open 3s and making them. He's getting legit first-half minutes now, and if he plays well, he can earn some time in the second half, too. It would be nice to know that if there's a game where the Big 3 are struggling, someone else might be able to hit a 3-pointer or two to get things going. Ideally, Duke will have two options off the bench by the end of the season. But I'd gladly settle for one.

7) Can Duke get a handle on its, uh, handling opponents?
Duke fouls too much. Period. And it's basically all coming from the bigs. I don't mind aggressive fouls fighting for a rebound or a blocked shot or trying to take a charger or even the occasional moving screen. Here's what I don't like: Reaching in after someone else has snared a rebound. Pushing guys in the back when you have no position. Hand-checking. Holding jerseys. Look, it's an incredibly fine line to walk when you are trying to prove to opponents that you can be as physical as anyone out there, while simultaneously making sure you don't foul. But Duke is letting teams get in the bonus too easily through fouls off the ball. The big guys simply have to be more disciplined. As a corollary, Duke needs to do a better job of getting to the free throw line, because the foul shooting differential you'd expect from a top team just isn't there. But I think properly executing the motion offense should take care of some of the offensive concerns. The bigger issue is the defensive/loose-ball fouls, which also undermine an excellent defensive effort on too many occasions.

8) Can Duke maintain consistent energy and attention to detail?
This connects directly to the point about defense above. This, for the most part, is an outstanding defensive team. Coach K has said enough. Duke can play outstanding D against anyone, and must play outstanding D to win big. But there have been lapses, particularly against NC State and Georgetown. Did the guys get that problem out of their system in those games? Are they ready to give all-out effort every night, to communicate well, to focus on the little things that matter so much in big games? Time to show us.

9) Late-game execution
Can Duke improve what little we've seen of its late-game execution? This team has barely played any close games, which is why the Boston College game was so important. That said, we've seen three areas that need to be improved:
A) Running the offense with the same discipline and precision as earlier in the game and not forcing low-percentage shots. We saw this mostly against Georgia Tech, but if Duke gets into more close games, it will be interesting to see what the team tries to do. I still like the ball in Scheyer's hands as a decision-maker. I still like knowing that Nolan can get a decent shot with the shot-clock winding down (that's why I like him off the ball to start these plays -- I don't think he sees the floor well enough to start things and get us the best possible shot, but he can finish quickly). And, I think if Duke really, really needs a bucket, my first option would still be to post Singler. He continues to show that he can abuse smaller opponents if he gets the ball on the block. If Duke finds itself in a few close games in this stretch, let's see if they go to that approach.
B) Finishing off good defensive possessions with tough rebounds. That cost Duke against Georgia Tech and almost cost them against B.C. Just finish the play.
C) Getting the ball to Jon Scheyer when the other team is fouling late. That was the biggest flaw in the whole final sequence against Boston College. Duke has a 90% FT shooter and couldn't get him to the line. Now, B.C. was putting two guys on him and even using a third to help off Dawkins/Kelly to deny Scheyer. But if Duke could consistently get J.J. Redick the ball in those situations, Coach K should be able to draw up enough stuff to do the same for Scheyer. I can't stress enough how much of a priority this needs to be. Smith is quicker and stronger, so he might have a slightly easier time of getting open. And he's a good FT shooter who wants the ball. But he's not a 90% guy. The whole team needs to be clear that in those situations, the ball goes to Scheyer. End of story. So from the design of the play to the decision by the inbounder (usually Singler) to the precision of the screens, to the cuts and reads by Scheyer himself, Duke has to take advantage of such a valuable weapon.

Anyway, that's what's on my mind as Duke enters the final phase of the regular season. I'm too tired and lazy to check for typos right now, but I suppose I can do that some other time. Looking forward to reading what everyone else has to say. Go Duke!

[duk3]

long time lurker, finally posting, but i noticed in the final analysis of phase III that coach k had mentioned jon having a back injury of sort. the question of what was wrong was posed to scheyer today during his time with the media and he said that it was something that started earlier in the week. i was wondering if anyone could point me in the direction of when this injury happened, specifically when coach k first mentioned it because the first time that i had seen anything about it was when jumbo mentioned it. i was just surprised i missed it because i tend to read all of the post-game stories and interviews.

[Duvall]

long time lurker, finally posting, but i noticed in the final analysis of phase III that coach k had mentioned jon having a back injury of sort. the question of what was wrong was posed to scheyer today during his time with the media and he said that it was something that started earlier in the week. i was wondering if anyone could point me in the direction of when this injury happened, specifically when coach k first mentioned it because the first time that i had seen anything about it was when jumbo mentioned it. i was just surprised i missed it because i tend to read all of the post-game stories and interviews.

Okay, maybe not. But I would put my money on the source of the injury being another Hewitt Special.

[Troublemaker]

Jumbo, brother, that's a lonnng and outstanding post. I wish I had the time and acumen to reply to everything you wrote with my own take on the matter.

As is, of particular interest to me is what you wrote here:

But it doesn't stop there. All three perimeter players need to recognize that when Duke is running motion and constantly setting screens off the ball that the bigs are, and will be, open. Essentially, the guys guarding the big men are cheating when they set screens, helping prevent the perimeter players from catching a quick pass and daring Duke to make a pass from beyond the arc that a big man would have to catch and finish. The reasoning is sound -- Duke's bigs have had problems simply catching in some games, let alone finishing. But for Duke to take the next step, the guards have to trust the bigs and deliver those passes. Maybe it'll cost the team a win down the way. But if they keep hitting them, I have faith that enough members of the quintet will deliver that defenses will be forceed to respect them, which in turn will make them even more effective screeners and open things back up on the perimeter.

See, I'm pretty ambivalent about this strategy. In an ideal world, we'd have bigs that can catch and finish. But I don't think we do. I have to admit a sin of a fan here. On those down screens that LT sets to free up Jon or Kyle to pop out at the elbow to receive a pass, sometimes curling back into the lane for a drive and sometimes stopping right at the elbow to take a jumpshot, I root for the defenders to communicate perfectly and not double-team the shooter. Because if they both jump out at Jon and Kyle, then those guys will hit LT with a pass on the block, wide open momentarily. The weakside defenders arrive, and then the adventure begins. Can LT put in the layup before the help gets there? Will he get blocked? Will he get stripped? Will he lose the ball going up? Will he get tied up? I just don't know if we can count on our bigs to finish and it's so disheartening when they don't.

I think the best thing this offense can do, and I think you agree, is post up Singler more. If you're looking for inside offense, that's the way to go. But I suspect the coaching staff is uncomfortable posting Kyle without the bigs being perimeter threats. It causes spacing issues. That's why this recent development of Ryan Kelly getting more playing makes me hopeful. I think eventually we can run sets with Kyle in the post and Kelly helping to spread the floor for him. Alongside LT, who is decent with the midrange jumper this year. Not good, but decent. Kelly also seems to be good at making entry passes. That's how I would approach things on offense. Run motion, sure, to free up shots for the Big 3, but also run sets for Kyle in the post.

[Wander]

Jumbo - I am curious to hear your views on whether you think Duke has a realistic chance to win the national championship. Good stuff as always. My two disagreements: I don't think we have any sort of pressing need to find a fourth perimeter scorer (I am not concerned about any aspects whatsoever of Scheyer's/Smith's game), and I wouldn't call this an "outstanding" defensive team.

[BlueintheFace]

Jumbo, when we get to stall ball, put me in the camp that wants the ball in Nolan Smith's hands. I know Jon is the best decision-maker on the team by a lot, but he has struggled a number of times with the shot clock winding down (silly threes, turnovers, etc...). Nolan Smith has proven (and K has acknowledged) that he is the only one on the team that is good at creating his own shot. K's stall ball usually consists of winding the shot clock down to single digits and then running a high screen and roll. When Jon can't get the half step on his defender he has to pull out and shoot a long three or pass it. Nolan, however, can get that half step and drive the lane for the foul, the basket, or to draw the weakside defender allowing for a put-back opportunity.

Now, when K (rarely) runs different sets late in the shot clock for stall ball, sure. Give it to Jon. I want him running the show, but I think history, through previous seasons and this one, has shown that K wants that shot clock at 12-8 seconds and he wants the high ball screen. Give me Nolan every time.

[superdave]

Motion - In the motion offense against BC, I noticed (which has been pointed out elsewhere) that Kyle was looking to catch and shoot more off screens than to create off the dribble. This is a good way to increase Kyle's efficiency. Also, it enable him to find open bigs or spot-up shooters whenever he draws a 2nd defender.

Post ScoringOur bigs are capable of scoring consistently, but only when they receive the ball in a scoring position. When our big 3 get into the lane, our bigs ought to be open. But to feed them and expect them to make a move, well, that probably wont work. In attack mode, our big 3 can find open big men for easy buckets. But that means we need to attack a lot.

Defense - I agree with Jumbo on committment to Defense. We can play great defensively at times, but do not put it all together for entire game or for several straight games. Two things mentioned that can be improved upon immediately: First, stop the silly fouls. This is all about self-discipline. Our bigs can get there and without much trouble. Maybe some time in the video room would help. Second, our help-side defense on the interior can be quicker. A lot of times we go for blocks rather than a true help (Mason, Miles) or the first guy rotates over but the backside help doesnt make it. When we start hitting these more consistently, well cut down fouls even further and rebound even better.

[Dar95]

I think consistency on defense is going to be the key to this team doing great things - we've seen in 3 out of the 4 losses (except GT1) that they can just lose it from time-to-time. We've done our usual great job of removing 3 pointers from the equation, but I see 3 areas in particular where we could use improvement:

1) Help defense. Particularly from our bigs, and Plumlees in particular - when we pressure and close out on the perimeter the way we do, there are going to be times when a guard gets by. Our bigs need to recognize the ball and be there to stop easy penetration.

2) Stupid fouls. As mentioned, we're extending possessions and getting into the bonus quicker than necessary, not to mention ending up with players in foul trouble.

3) Getting back in transition. This has been a less consistent problem, but while we've done a great job on the offensive glass this year, there's been some tradeoff in terms of transition D. In particular, I've noticed loose ball situations where our guards seem to assume we will get possession and end up getting burned downcourt.

Offensively, we're #1 (by a reasonable margin) in offensive efficiency in the Pomeroy ratings. While I agree that continuing to emphasize increased motion and court awareness is important, on that end it's mostly a matter of keeping doing what we're doing.

[jv001]

More good stuff Jumbo. Some observations;
Motion Offense..much better option than the dribble drive. Guys don't stand around in this offense. I'm with Jumbo in that we could use more post up from Kyle..This will have to come from Coach K. I still like the high low game for continuity. We have some guys that can execute this offense.
Mason Plumlee. At this point I don't know what to expect from Mason. He's losing his man way too many times on defense. He's commiting silly fouls in frustration. He reminds me of Miles last year. Just too much thinking and not enough playing the game. Let's hope he get's it in practice because he will not get it in games.
Another scorer. It's evident that Andre has hit that freshman wall. He's not moving like he did at the beginning of the year and he's not the shooter he was at the beginning of the year. I know that he's gone through things that would keep most young men down and out. But to his credit, he's competing. I look for Andre to make strides in practice and begin to get more minutes. I would love to see it Wednesday night. As for Ryan, I like his improvement. He's not a game changer yet, but he seems to get it more than Mason and Dre. As everyone knows, he just needs more strength but most freshman need more strength. To sum it up, I think this team has not reached it's potential and will get better by March. Go Duke!

[bird]

My two disagreements: I don't think we have any sort of pressing need to find a fourth perimeter scorer (I am not concerned about any aspects whatsoever of Scheyer's/Smith's game), and I wouldn't call this an "outstanding" defensive team.

I too think the perimeter is in good hands, and also think this is a solid, but not vintage, defensive squad. I may be a bit prejudiced by my love for the overplaying, ball-hawking Duke squads of years past who could lauch a 12-0 run in a couple of minutes from the defensive end, but KenPom's stats show that our defensive efficiency this year to be strong but not elite. There are fixable issues, but this team is never going to apply savage ball pressure and lock-down perimeter denial.

My biggest concern right now is the step back by Miles. He's got the athleticism and strength, and is gaining the experience, to be a powerful inside presence. I don't understand his recent struggles; he has fallen off the upward curve.

[Chitowndevil]

1) No doubt.

2) Great point. The key ingredient in a motion offense is spacing. To space the court effectively you must have players who can finish near the basket. Duke's bigs have been extrememly weak finishing plays. Singler, Scheyer, and Smith are routinely double or triple teamed on drives to the basket because opponents have so little fear of an interior pass.

3 & 4 I view as an extension of 2. To have a legitimate shot at the Final Four Duke absolutely must have at least one big man who can "catch strong, go up strong, and finish strong".

5 & 6 are also related in my view. I do think Duke's home/road shooting splits have a lot to do with its opponents (Wisconsin is 5th overall in Defensive Efficiency, Clemson is 4th, Georgia Tech 13th). Duke has also played four road games (and only two home games) since Sinlger aggravated his wrist against Wake. Still, I absolutely agree Duke needs a 4th perimeter scorer, for the same reason cited in point 2 above. After the Villanova game last season, Coach K lamented that they were basically playing 5 on 3. That has certainly been the case for long stretches this season offensively.

7 (& 8) YES. This is an incredibly important point I hear virtually NOBODY talking about. Duke has 5 players with over 5 fouls committed per 40 minutes, including Miles (6.5), Mason (7.2), and Zoubs (8.8!!). I realize this is partly a product of having lots of fouls to give down low. But as Jumbo mentions, many of these fouls are silly: look no farther than against BC, where Duke had a chance to push its lead to 12-13 on the final possession of the first half, and instead put BC on the line with a chance to close to 8. Those silly fouls add up, especially come March. They can undermine a team's ability to play tough, physical defense late in games - in a close game, putting the opponent on the line is usually the WORST outcome of a possession.

9) Jon Scheyer needs to have the ball late, period. Nolan Smith has shown an ability to bail us out late in the shot clock, but the ball still needs to be in Scheyer's hands the majority of the time - not just for his FT%, but also his court vision as mentioned before.

[arydolphin]

C) Getting the ball to Jon Scheyer when the other team is fouling late. That was the biggest flaw in the whole final sequence against Boston College. Duke has a 90% FT shooter and couldn't get him to the line.

I was at the Duke-BC game, and one thing that I noticed on the last big inbounds play is that Kyle had 2 guys other than Jon come open on that play. Kyle chose not to throw the ball to them, even though both guys were wide open, and waited for Jon to come free even with 2 guys on him. I think that Jumbo's sentiment was probably passed on to the team in the last huddle before that play. He's right, Jon is the guy that we want on the line in the closing moments of a game, he has to find a way to get the ball.

One other thing that was interesting about the late-game situation against BC...Jon sets up the offense, but Nolan was the guy to make the drive late in the shot clock on one of the plays. Obviously Jon is more of a point guard at this time as compared to Nolan, but in a setup like a 1-4 formation that you can see late in games, Nolan is definitely the best player for that situation becuase like G was last year, he's the best guy on the team at creating his own shot and getting to the rim. I think that G was better at it last year than Nolan is this year, but the ability to get to the rim in a late-game situation is critical, especially when this team doesn't have a lights-out long range shooter and doesn't have a solid low-post presence either.

[sagegrouse]

We begin with a commercial from Steamboat Springs, Colorado like my homeboy Verne Lundquist does from time to time. Yesterday AM I am sitting at my desk early in the morning and just happened to look up. There is a huge elk staring at me through the glass, less than two feet from my face. Four elk had bedded overnight in the yard (they are still here) and were digging through the snow to eat the long grass just above the boulder wall behind my house. I guess the one at my window was just curious.

1) Can Duke stay healthy?
I never want to see athletes, especially college guys, injured. (Of course, that has never been put to the real test because I didn’t have to feel sorry for the vile Rashad McCants or the repulsive Jeff McInnes, who were both healthy while at UNC.) Duke has been very fortunate this year, and we should be thankful every day it continues.

2) Can Duke take the most important step in truly running an excellent motion offense by becoming a better, more aware, passing team?
We have got to start feeding the big guys in the middle, and they have to prove they can finish. Not just the Plumees – I am talking to you too, Brian Zoubek.

3) Is Miles Plumlee just in a slump, or has he regressed?
The no. 1 factor with our big men has been match-ups. Zoubek, for example, was perfect for BC, in that his strength, heady play but lack of mobility was not a problem, and Miles didn’t see a lot of action. Against Greg Monroe and GU, it was just the opposite. Funny thing is that this dumb ACC schedule means that our last seven games are against teams we haven’t played before. So, who knows?

Miles will play a lot against the more mobile UNC team. I am looking for defense, rebounds, and a few dunks.

4) What is a realistic expectation for Mason Plumlee at this point?
My expectation is that he will be a factor before the end of the season, but he has to keep being aggressive and work through the mistakes he is making.

5) Can Duke consistently shoot (reasonably) well from the perimeter, particularly on the road?
You expect to have 50% games and 30% games, but it is the 21% games (at GT) that guarantee a loss. We don’t need to shoot 50%, but it sure would be nice to have 30% be a lower bound.

6) Speaking of 3-point shooting, will Duke find a fourth perimeter scorer?
Boy, that would make a huge difference.

7) Can Duke get a handle on its, uh, handling opponents?
Good point. I hadn’t thought of this aspect of the game.

8) Can Duke maintain consistent energy and attention to detail?
I have no question about this, but the wailing chorus of Cassandras about too many minutes and too short a bench are already predicting doom. And, because the chance of Duke winning three games in the ACCs and six games in the NCAAs is not very high, they will likely have ammunition to beat on us for at least another 12 months.

9) Late-game execution
Last Saturday was a B+. Lets hope we are on the right track.

sagegrouse

[sagegrouse]

We begin with a commercial from Steamboat Springs, Colorado like my homeboy Verne Lundquist does from time to time. Yesterday AM I am sitting at my desk early in the morning and just happened to look up. There is a huge elk staring at me through the glass, less than two feet from my face. Four elk had bedded overnight in the yard (they are still here) and were digging through the snow to eat the long grass just above the boulder wall behind my house. I guess the one at my window was just curious.

1) Can Duke stay healthy?
I never want to see athletes, especially college guys, injured. (Of course, that has never been put to the real test because I didn’t have to feel sorry for the vile Rashad McCants or the repulsive Jeff McInnes, who were both healthy while at UNC.) Duke has been very fortunate this year, and we should be thankful every day it continues.

2) Can Duke take the most important step in truly running an excellent motion offense by becoming a better, more aware, passing team?
We have got to start feeding the big guys in the middle, and they have to prove they can finish. Not just the Plumees – I am talking to you too, Brian Zoubek.

3) Is Miles Plumlee just in a slump, or has he regressed?
The no. 1 factor with our big men has been match-ups. Zoubek, for example, was perfect for BC, in that his physical strength, heady play, but lack of mobility was perfect against the Eagles, and Miles didn’t see a lot of action. Against Greg Monroe and GU, it was just the opposite. Funny thing is that this dumb ACC schedule means that our last seven games are against teams we haven’t played before. So, who knows?

Miles will play a lot against the more mobile UNC team. I am looking for defense, rebounds, and a few dunks.

4) What is a realistic expectation for Mason Plumlee at this point?
My expectation is that he will be a factor before the end of the season, but he has to keep being aggressive and work through the mistakes he is making.

5) Can Duke consistently shoot (reasonably) well from the perimeter, particularly on the road?
You expect to have 50% games and 30% games, but it is the 21% games (at GT) that guarantee a loss. We don’t need to shoot 50%, but it sure would be nice to have 30% be a lower bound.

6) Speaking of 3-point shooting, will Duke find a fourth perimeter scorer?
Boy, that would make a huge difference.

7) Can Duke get a handle on its, uh, handling opponents?
Good point. I hadn’t thought of this aspect of the game.

8) Can Duke maintain consistent energy and attention to detail?
I have no question about this, but the wailing chorus of Cassandras about too many minutes and too short a bench are already predicting doom. And, because the chance of Duke winning three games in the ACCs and six games in the NCAAs is not very high, they will likely have ammunition to beat on us for at least another 12 months.

9) Late-game execution
Last Saturday was a B+. Lets hope we are on the right track.

sagegrouse

[MChambers]

7 (& 8) YES. This is an incredibly important point I hear virtually NOBODY talking about. Duke has 5 players with over 5 fouls committed per 40 minutes, including Miles (6.5), Mason (7.2), and Zoubs (8.8!!). I realize this is partly a product of having lots of fouls to give down low. But as Jumbo mentions, many of these fouls are silly: look no farther than against BC, where Duke had a chance to push its lead to 12-13 on the final possession of the first half, and instead put BC on the line with a chance to close to 8. Those silly fouls add up, especially come March. They can undermine a team's ability to play tough, physical defense late in games - in a close game, putting the opponent on the line is usually the WORST outcome of a possession.

Actually, some of us have been pointing this out for much of the season. One poster here quoted the basketball Zen master, Shane Battier, to the effect that a foul is the worst possible outcome.

Good old Len Elmore said Saturday that he thinks that Duke's bigs are playing without regard to their foul status. I can't really believe that. It's just too obvious a problem for our defense.

For Zoubek, I have some sympathy, because the refs seem to call him for fouls that they don't call on anyone else (although he is the one who made that silly foul Saturday at the end of the half). For the other bigs, it seems that they just let their emotions get the best of them.

[COYS]

I too think the perimeter is in good hands, and also think this is a solid, but not vintage, defensive squad. I may be a bit prejudiced by my love for the overplaying, ball-hawking Duke squads of years past who could lauch a 12-0 run in a couple of minutes from the defensive end, but KenPom's stats show that our defensive efficiency this year to be strong but not elite. There are fixable issues, but this team is never going to apply savage ball pressure and lock-down perimeter denial.

My biggest concern right now is the step back by Miles. He's got the athleticism and strength, and is gaining the experience, to be a powerful inside presence. I don't understand his recent struggles; he has fallen off the upward curve.

Of course, our defensive efficiency stats are skewed by our pitiful performances against NC State, G-Town, and Wiscy. I think we can be and have been an elite defensive team. We just have to give that effort consistently and avoid the complete defensive meltdowns we had against those teams, especially the State game. That being said, I actually think that Jumbo's point about consistent shooting outside of Cameron plays into how good our defense can be. In both the NC State and G-Town games (and probably the Wiscy game, too, but I can't remember that one as well) we gave up a lot of easy buckets off of bricked jumpers and long rebounds. The fact that we missed so many long range shots led to a lot of fast breaks and semi-breaks that resulted in a foul on us or easy points for them. This dramatically reduced our defensive efficiency in those games and got the other team in the bonus quickly. If our perimeter players knock down a few more open looks, we not only will score more points but the other team will have fewer opportunities on the break which will hopefully result in fewer fouls on us and lower percentage shots from the other team.

[jv001]

Actually, some of us have been pointing this out for much of the season. One poster here quoted the basketball Zen master, Shane Battier, to the effect that a foul is the worst possible outcome.

Good old Len Elmore said Saturday that he thinks that Duke's bigs are playing without regard to their foul status. I can't really believe that. It's just too obvious a problem for our defense.

For Zoubek, I have some sympathy, because the refs seem to call him for fouls that they don't call on anyone else (although he is the one who made that silly foul Saturday at the end of the half). For the other bigs, it seems that they just let their emotions get the best of them.

Zoubs seems to get the short end of the stick when it comes to officials not giving him the benefit of the doubt on all calls. In one game he was pulled down by the opposing player and both players were assessed fouls. As for Jon, I can't remember a player that get's beat on as much has he does and it not called by the refs. I credit this for some of his to's in recent games. As for Miles, Mason and Lance they do commit some really silly fouls and I'm not talking about illegal screens. I'm talking about reach-ins, over the back, frustration fouls. Those are wasted fouls that put us over the limit way too soon. We need to play solid defense and quit making these dumb fouls. Go Duke!

[Chitowndevil]

Actually, some of us have been pointing this out for much of the season. One poster here quoted the basketball Zen master, Shane Battier, to the effect that a foul is the worst possible outcome.

Good old Len Elmore said Saturday that he thinks that Duke's bigs are playing without regard to their foul status. I can't really believe that. It's just too obvious a problem for our defense.

For Zoubek, I have some sympathy, because the refs seem to call him for fouls that they don't call on anyone else (although he is the one who made that silly foul Saturday at the end of the half). For the other bigs, it seems that they just let their emotions get the best of them.

Glad I'm not the only one then

I actually don't think that quote is from Shane. It's in an article about Shane here:
The No-Stats All-Star (NY Times)

The quote itself is attributed to Daryl Morey, GM of the Houston Rockets. To be fair, Battier does say about Kobe Bryant, "The absolute worst thing to do... is to foul him". So maybe I am splitting hairs!

IMO, it goes beyond emotion; this is something the staff needs to correct. Duke's opponents are getting .35 free throw attempts per field goal attempt, which ranks 120th nationally. Since 2003, Duke has never allowed more than .32 FTA/FGA and is often under 30%. Late season and/or close games tend to have higher FTA/FGA, so the difference is perhaps even more pronounced. In 6 of 11 games since January 1 (including all three Duke losses in that stretch), Duke's opponents FTA/FGA is 47.3% or higher. In comparison, the 2009 squad allowed a free throw rate that high in only 3 games all season.

[Rich]

Another scorer. It's evident that Andre has hit that freshman wall. He's not moving like he did at the beginning of the year and he's not the shooter he was at the beginning of the year. I know that he's gone through things that would keep most young men down and out. But to his credit, he's competing. I look for Andre to make strides in practice and begin to get more minutes.

I won't take credit for this, but I heard from someone who really knows basketball (and played for Duke under Vic Bubas) and he said he thought that, while Andre's form is beautiful, his release is slow. While Andre could get his shot off earlier in the season when the competition wasn't as strong, opponents are bearing down on him quicker now that we're in ACC play and Andre is forced to shoot quicker than he's accustomed. I believe this is correctable, but I see that as an off-season fix and not something that's going to happen during the season.

[CDu]

I agree with these points as key considerations, but I would add another question:

"Can Duke show they can defend against teams who spread the floor?"

We've had trouble against that type of team this year (Wisconsin, NC State, Georgetown). Teams that can spread the floor, shoot a bit from outside, attack our isolated big men in the post, and/or can attack off the dribble seem to give us fits.

We haven't had to do it much in the ACC so far because the ACC plays surprisingly tall/big this year. Only NC State really plays a 4-out approach among the teams we've faced in conference to this point. But with games against Maryland, UVa, and VT coming up, we're going to see a lot more of it in the rest of the regular season. And we'll almost certainly see it in the tournament.