No chance. Scheyer's career has not been as good as Mark Alarie, Gene Banks, Jim Spanarkel, or Jack Marin, and they're not up there either. Forget it.
Yes
No
No chance. Scheyer's career has not been as good as Mark Alarie, Gene Banks, Jim Spanarkel, or Jack Marin, and they're not up there either. Forget it.
If it doesn't retire, I believe Seth is going to take it next season. What are your thoughts on that? I think it could be too soon.
Scheyer has never even been to the Final Four. Let's not get ahead of ourselves.
I would think Scheyer would have to win:
1. ACC player of the year, which is a good possibility and
2. Win either NPOY or lead Duke to at least a final four appearance and probably even a National Title.
... I don't think his 3 previous years have been successful enough tourney-wise to warrant his jersey being retired without these 2 things happening. But he has obviously been a great player for us the past 4 years.
I think this is the key. On top of that, Scheyer didn't really play a leading role in any of those previous years. It's really hard to justify retirement of the jersey for a guy who was the third or fourth most prominent player for three years of his career on a team that just didn't have much national success (or even much ACC success relative to the last 30 years for Duke).
As such, it's going to take a monster year (both individually and team-wise) for Scheyer to get the jersey retired. I think it'll take even more than just a Final Four and 1st Team All-American. I think it's going to take a POY award and at least a Final Four. Of course, he's certainly on the right track at the moment.
You know, it's interesting. If (and that's a giant if) Scheyer continues on his current pace, he really won't fit the profile for the Hall of Honor or a retired jersey. We really haven't had a player spend three years as a purely complementary player and then contend for NPOY honors in his senior season.
Yeah, we've had a few guys be complementary players their first two years and end up getting their jerseys retired. But all of those retired had reached some level of national honor (and/or tournament success) and had major ACC honors by their junior years. For Scheyer, he's always been in the shadows:
Freshman year: 3rd/4th guy (behind McRoberts and Nelson, on par with Paulus)
Sophomore year: 3rd/4th/5th guy (behind Nelson and Singler, on par with Paulus and Henderson)
Junior year: 3rd guy (behind Henderson and Singler)
This year, he's become the main guy. But he's got a lot of ground to make up.
I don't think it's fair to characterize Scheyer as the third or fourth best player or a "purely complementary player" for his first three years. Certainly if you look at the numbers and All-ACC honors, there's a strong argument that Nelson, McRoberts, Singler, and Henderson have all been more "prominent" players. But then, Scheyer's contributions have never been summed up by numbers and honors, have they?
We've had well-balanced teams (at least at the top) for all of Jon's seasons. No Redicks or Williamses or Battiers. No player that Scheyer played with was ever our "lead player" like those guys were. Instead, for Scheyer's career, we've had 3-4 players every year who were absolutely essential to our team success (this year, too). Jon has always been one of those players; on many nights, even in his freshman year, he was the most important player, and on many nights it was someone else. But if Jon was merely a complementary player, then so Singler and Nelson et al. have been.
When talking about honors as great as jersey retirement, I think it's absolutely fair to talk about Scheyer as being the third/fourth most prominent player. That's not to say he wasn't a key contributor to the team each year. But in each of those years, a couple of other players had slightly more prominent roles. So in terms of statistical performance and critical acclaim, Scheyer was very much the 3rd/4th player on each of those teams.
Ultimately, numbers and honors (and just as importantly team success) are what get you a jersey retirement. So while Scheyer brings a lot of "intangibles" to the table, those intangibles haven't to this point resulted in national honors (or even ACC season honors) or national team success. And those are the things that matter with regard to jersey retirement.
On another Duke website(BDN) I had an interesting discussion regarding Duke's all decade team. I suggested that Jon deserved the honor over Chris Duhon. Most thought Chris deserved it because he was on two FF teams with one Championship. My response was to show that Jon had better overall numbers than Chris. The exception being career assists. Chris had other all decade players on his teams. Shelden, JJ, Luol, Dahntay, Boozer, Dunleavy & Jay Williams. Jon had none. I love both guys and would really have a hard time picking one over another. Go Duke!
Does he really? If the NPOY goes to the guy who has the most highlight reel dunks then Wall is in his way. If it goes to the guy who makes more "OMG" plays per game than anyone else, then Wall is in his way. Ditto on "most NBA potential", "most athletic" or probably a dozen other categories. If you give it to the guy who has played the best then Scheyer is standing in Wall's way.
This is to take nothing away from John Wall, he's ridiculously talented. However if I had a college basketball game to win tomorrow and could have Wall or Scheyer as my PG, I'd choose Scheyer and I don't think that's my bias speaking.
FF or NPOY. Then Maybe.
Coach K told us during a speech my freshman year that you need to graduate and you need some kind of national recognition - POY type award OR setting a national record (I believe this is how Bobby Hurley got his, with the national assists record, since he didn't get any POY awards). Those are "hard" requirements. We've certainly had more alumni win POY/DPOY awards, so there are soft considerations that must go into it. It's hard to tell right now how Scheyer stacks up on the soft stuff against guys like Amaker, and without any records, national awards, or major postseason success yet, I would be surprised if his jersey was retired.
And did somebody suggest that Seth is going to take Jon's number? Seth already wears #3 (stolen from GP!), though we only saw it in the Blue-White game. I wouldn't be surprised if one of the freshmen got Jon's number next year though, since a lot of guys who have left in recent years have had theirs reused immediately: Nelson to MP1, King to Williams to Dawkins (really hope that's not an omen), McBob to Smith, Marty to MP2.
Curry wore 30 at Liberty which I think is why it's assumed he'd take it next year.