2008 Kentucky Derby

[YmoBeThere]

From the sounds of it(or lack thereof) I may be the only one watching it...

[Bostondevil]

Every year I read the analysis in the sports page on Derby Day and pick two horses. This year I've got Eight Belles and Cowboy Cal. I always pick the filly if one is running, it's a gender thing. My oldest son has Pyro and Cool Coal Man. My father-in-law is new to the competition this year, he's got Colonel John and oops, I forget, maybe Big Brown. My son would remember. We are allowed to pick the same horse, we just didn't this year.

I picked the winner last year but right now, I can't remember who that was! Street Smart? Anyway, I got it right but it had been a few years. Notable successes from my past - Unbridled, Sea Hero, Go For Gin - I got all those right too.

[YmoBeThere]

My record at picking winners has been lousy, but I'll go with Colonel John also and Z Fortune.

Every year I go into the Derby and then the Preakness and Belmont hoping to see a Triple Crown winner. Will this year be the year?

[IUGrad03]

I grew up in Louisville and spent many weekends at Churchill Downs. Today I am supporting Denis of Cork, Visionnaire (because of Michael Matz) and Eight Belles.

On another note, we just had our traditional Derby pie, delicious.

[Lavabe]

From the sounds of it(or lack thereof) I may be the only one watching it...

Au contraire!

Besides me, you can bet DevilHorse is watching (and following the HurleyHappenings in New York). I suspect Saratoga2 is watching as well.

Can't wait until I live in the area!

Cheers,
Lavabe

[Ben63]

I'll be watching, but I have no idea who is going to win. It sounds like Big Brown is the horse to beat but he/she(?) is starting from the 20 spot so it doesn't look good.

[YmoBeThere]

I had to start this thread somehow :rolleyes:

30 minutes to post time...if only there were some high level track and field earlier today. T&F, horse racing and auto racing all in one day...

[YmoBeThere]

The favorite Big Brown takes it with a dominating 5 length win. Good thing I couldn't wager anything on the race! Oh, Eight Belles placed.

[Bostondevil]

Eight Belles has been put down. I'm sure everybody reading this thread already knows that. I can't watch the post race coverage. Shades of Go For Wand. There are times when horse racing depresses me. This is one of them.

[YmoBeThere]

Eight Belles has been put down. I'm sure everybody reading this thread already knows that. I can't watch the post race coverage. Shades of Go For Wand. There are times when horse racing depresses me. This is one of them.

Yikes, I didn't know...yes that part of horse racing is very saddening.

[Lavabe]

Yikes, I didn't know...yes that part of horse racing is very saddening.

Great race, but incredible break down AFTER the race. Severe compound fractures of BOTH front ankles ... in the warm down/gallop after the race. This makes no sense. I've never seen that in the gallop after a race.

BD: Go for Wand & Ruffian are the two breakdowns that stand in my mind, but they occurred during the race itself. That's why to me, this was so strange.

As for the race, incredible acceleration and clean riding aboard Big Brown. He had no dirt in his face, and faced NO traffic troubles. With Eight Belles' break down, Big Brown was 8+ lengths better than the nearest competition. With a smaller field at the Preakness, he looks much the best. I think the third place horse, Denis of Cork, will wait until Belmont, as the 1 1/2 mile distance will suit him better than will the 1 3/16 mile Preakness.

Lavabe

[Bostondevil]

BD: Go for Wand & Ruffian are the two breakdowns that stand in my mind, but they occurred during the race itself. That's why to me, this was so strange.



Agree, strange. I wonder if fillies are like female basketball players and their ACLs, more likely to suffer the injury.

[Lavabe]

Agree, strange. I wonder if fillies are like female basketball players and their ACLs, more likely to suffer the injury.

Here's a discussion (http://www.scienceblog.com/community/older/2002/A/2002848.html) from a few years back that deals with sexual dimorphism (difference in body form according to sex) and sports performance in bipeds (us) vs. quadrupeds (horses).

Cheers,
Lavabe

[billybreen]

Eight Belles has been put down. I'm sure everybody reading this thread already knows that. I can't watch the post race coverage. Shades of Go For Wand. There are times when horse racing depresses me. This is one of them.

Horse racing depresses me a lot of the time.

[ghost]

Horse racing depresses me a lot of the time.

ditto... I have been to Preakness a few times and am quite amazed by horses but after Barbaro last year... it's just too sad.

[Vincetaylor]

Horseracing is incredibly inhumane. It's full of history and tradition, but it's pretty pitiful when it comes down to it.

[billybreen]

Horseracing is incredibly inhumane. It's full of history and tradition, but it's pretty pitiful when it comes down to it.

Agreed. Along with greyhound racing, I would be happy to see the sport euthanized.

[YmoBeThere]

Agreed. Along with greyhound racing, I would be happy to see the sport euthanized.

Have we drifted to the PPB?

[Lavabe]

Agreed. Along with greyhound racing, I would be happy to see the sport euthanized.

Personally, I am disturbed that BillyBreen didn't consider for his response to Vince, the sport of kings, FALCONRY.

I'm not talking Michael Vick and the Failcons -- they've already been banned -- but the historical sport involving the swift-diving birds of prey. I just saw a video about Mongolian eagle hunters. This might be dicey and difficult here, but perhaps better suited for the PPB; you would also need to avoid ethnocentric approaches when discussing this issue.

Cheers,
Lavabe

[AtlBluRew]

Personally, I am disturbed that BillyBreen didn't consider for his response to Vince, the sport of kings, FALCONRY.

I'm not talking Michael Vick and the Failcons -- they've already been banned --

I'm all for hunting Michael Vick!

[bjornolf]

I'm all for hunting Michael Vick!

despite his past transgressions, probably not the best thing to say with today's sensitivity over such things, especially where people of the african american persuasion are concerned. :o

[bjornolf]

Great race, but incredible break down AFTER the race. Severe compound fractures of BOTH front ankles ... in the warm down/gallop after the race. This makes no sense. I've never seen that in the gallop after a race.

BD: Go for Wand & Ruffian are the two breakdowns that stand in my mind, but they occurred during the race itself. That's why to me, this was so strange.

As for the race, incredible acceleration and clean riding aboard Big Brown. He had no dirt in his face, and faced NO traffic troubles. With Eight Belles' break down, Big Brown was 8+ lengths better than the nearest competition. With a smaller field at the Preakness, he looks much the best. I think the third place horse, Denis of Cork, will wait until Belmont, as the 1 1/2 mile distance will suit him better than will the 1 3/16 mile Preakness.

Lavabe


The initial break probably occurred near the end of the race, but the horse didn't even notice with all the adrenaline flying around in her. It then compounded in the slowdown when she applied more weight straight down and forward on it trying to slow down. If you have it on TiVo, watch for a stumble or hiccup or hop near the start of the stretch or near the finish. Not sure if that's when it happened, but that would be my guess. It really could have happened anywhere. The forces on the leg are totally different when slowing down or stopping than when galloping. That's my guess as a BME who studied bone breaking a little. Certainly no expert though.

My mother used to love horse racing, but she's becoming rather bitter about it. She complained to me for ten minutes yesterday about how animal groups have been begging Churchhill Downs to soften their track for years, to no avail. Harder tracks are faster and more thrilling, but much harder on slender horse legs. Also, she had to carry extra weight to even it out, kind of like danica patrick's car, which I don't think she'd had to do before.

As for the longer track at Belmont, I don't know how much that will hurt him, as he had to run MUCH farther than his competitors in this race, and still won easily.

Just my $0.01.

[Lavabe]

The initial break probably occurred near the end of the race, but the horse didn't even notice with all the adrenaline flying around in her. It then compounded in the slowdown when she applied more weight straight down and forward on it trying to slow down. If you have it on TiVo, watch for a stumble or hiccup or hop near the start of the stretch or near the finish. Not sure if that's when it happened, but that would be my guess. It really could have happened anywhere. The forces on the leg are totally different when slowing down or stopping than when galloping. That's my guess as a BME who studied bone breaking a little. Certainly no expert though.

My mother used to love horse racing, but she's becoming rather bitter about it. She complained to me for ten minutes yesterday about how animal groups have been begging Churchhill Downs to soften their track for years, to no avail. Harder tracks are faster and more thrilling, but much harder on slender horse legs. Also, she had to carry extra weight to even it out, kind of like danica patrick's car, which I don't think she'd had to do before.

As for the longer track at Belmont, I don't know how much that will hurt him, as he had to run MUCH farther than his competitors in this race, and still won easily.

Just my $0.01.

I reviewed the stretch on-line today, and I just didn't see any missteps. I also saw the overhead shots of the entire stretch, as well as the beginning of the gallop afterwards. Folks point to one point early in the stretch, where she jerked her head a little, and bore in a little.

My initial thought was that the horse's heels were clipped as she moved between horses in the backstretch/far turn, but no sign of that.

Your BME opinion has more merit than anything else I've seen on-line. Thanks.

Cheers,
Lavabe

[blublood]

Horrible - I just read about this today. I have never, ever heard of a double fracture from merely galloping out. That's just crazy - a bone chip I could understand, a hairline fracture, maybe, but for both ankles to irreversibly implode is very disturbing.

IMO (and I'm not an expert, just somebody who's had horses a long time), the track has very little to do with it. I think it's more related to the inbreeding among thoroughbreds and the fact that a lot of these horses are over-medicated. When I first heard about Lasix, it was in the context of, "Oh, yeah, that's a Lasix horse."

But when you actually stop and think about it, it's insane. Why a) would you run an animal that's bleeding into its lungs and b) treat the condition like some kind of minor annoyance, like having to run with blinkers on? The fact that the drug is so widely used tells you that racing is a big-dollar business with razor-thin margins and owners/trainers are desperate to get the highest possible return on every investment.

Inbreeding is exactly the same deal - why gamble a quarter million dollars for an unknown quantity when you can have a colt sired by Unbridled? Which makes sense, I guess, but my personal opinion is that the business aspect of breeding horses has made the bloodline so dilute that that's where you're getting a lot of these injuries from. I don't care what any of the statisticians say - when you have a horse, a strong, good horse, who blows out both ankles from merely galloping, there's a problem. Yeah, it's a "grueling" (writers don't ever seem to be able to come up with any other adjective) race, yeah the horses are young, but they were young and the race was exactly the same distance 20, 30, even 60 years ago and you didn't have these horrific injuries.

I would love to see racing return to its roots and start breeding in some Arabians, or some of the bigger eventing-type sires. Maybe this is already being done, but my hunch is that it will never be widespread until the NHRA and the other big bosses in the racing world admit that there's a problem.

[blublood]

Also, she had to carry extra weight to even it out, kind of like danica patrick's car, which I don't think she'd had to do before.


Wait, what? The fillies get a five-pound allowance in the Derby. (Unless you mean that her jockey has been really hitting the sauce the last few weeks. :D )

[bjornolf]

Wait, what? The fillies get a five-pound allowance in the Derby. (Unless you mean that her jockey has been really hitting the sauce the last few weeks. :D )

yeah, she was given a five pound allowance, but her jockey still had to be weighted to 121 lbs. I believe. I'm not sure if she'd carried that much in a full race before. Maybe. Like I said, I'm no expert. Also, is five pounds much of a difference when you consider how much bigger the stallions are than the phillies? :confused:

[Lavabe]

yeah, she was given a five pound allowance, but her jockey still had to be weighted to 121 lbs. I believe. I'm not sure if she'd carried that much in a full race before. Maybe. Like I said, I'm no expert. Also, is five pounds much of a difference when you consider how much bigger the stallions are than the phillies? :confused:

Technically, the boys are called colts as 2 & 3 yr olds, while they're growing. The girls are fillies as 2 & 3 yr olds. When males hit 4 (by calendar year) they become horses; fillies become mares. The term stallion, I was always taught, is used to refer to a breeding male.

Stakes Races for 3 yr olds: 126 lbs for colts, 121 pounds for fillies. I believe that standard is set by organizations such as the Jockey Club (which governs the sport in the US).

The only other weight allowances in this stakes race would be if the jockey was an apprentice.

5 pounds is not much for a large animal, but in handicap races (as opposed to the Stakes races), the track steward sets the weight differences. Sometimes there you can get substantial weight differences. Keep in mind that Eight Belles was an extremely tall filly. She carried 121 pounds in her previous start, the Grade 2 stakes Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn Park (Arkansas).

The role of sexual dimorphism in horses isn't well known (I cited a science discussion about it in another post). There are some subtle, but significant size and muscle differences, but its role in racing performance is unclear at best.

The distance of the race, 1.25 miles, was the furthest distance any of the competitors have ever traveled. The Belmont (1.5 miles) will probably be the longest they ever go.

Cheers,
Lavabe

[Lavabe]

Horrible - I just read about this today. I have never, ever heard of a double fracture from merely galloping out. That's just crazy - a bone chip I could understand, a hairline fracture, maybe, but for both ankles to irreversibly implode is very disturbing.
.
.
.

Inbreeding is exactly the same deal - why gamble a quarter million dollars for an unknown quantity when you can have a colt sired by Unbridled? Which makes sense, I guess, but my personal opinion is that the business aspect of breeding horses has made the bloodline so dilute that that's where you're getting a lot of these injuries from. I don't care what any of the statisticians say - when you have a horse, a strong, good horse, who blows out both ankles from merely galloping, there's a problem.

I don't recall that injury either. The worst I can recall was Ruffian. If you check Wiki, you'll read a gruesome explanation as to what happened that day.

Deep down, I think you are dead on with the inbreeding aspects. I think, however, that there's also a lot we don't know about skeletal development & growth in these horses.

Lavabe

[greybeard]

Very, very, very bruttle sport; not just for the horses. For how a concise view of how the sport impacts on (treats) jockeys, in the currrent day, Bryan Gumble did a piece on that for Real Sports last year. Pretty much the same as back in the day, read Seabiscut (spelling?). "Hey, who do you like in the eighth at . . . ."

And then he says alright I've had enough, what else can you show me. BZ, It's Alright Ma.

[77devil]

IMO (and I'm not an expert, just somebody who's had horses a long time), the track has very little to do with it. I think it's more related to the inbreeding among thoroughbreds and the fact that a lot of these horses are over-medicated. When I first heard about Lasix, it was in the context of, "Oh, yeah, that's a Lasix horse."

A weekend WSJ article stated that 75% of the thoroughbred population in the U.S. is from the lineage of one horse, Northern Dancer, and that his foot problem has been exacerbated in his descedants by inbreeding.


http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB120968356843561083-tMOh6md5tsfD_6m4voaXNyFGS0M_20080601.html?mod=tff_ main_tff_top

[Lavabe]

Pat Forde of ESPN puts together many of the Eight Belles arguments in this article:
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/columns/story?columnist=forde_pat&id=3382235&sportCat=horse&lpos=spotlight&lid=tab2pos1

"A balkanized industry needs to coalesce and put every conceivable solution on the table. It took some steps after the Barbaro breakdown two years ago, but more are needed."

I wonder if Forde's comment about the racing calendar figures into the decision of a few trainers in re the Preakness. It's early, but it looks as though Big Brown may not see in the Preakness ANY of his rivals from the Derby. As I suggested earlier, a few will skip the Preakness and wait for the Belmont.

Lavabe

[bjornolf]

A weekend WSJ article stated that 75% of the thoroughbred population in the U.S. is from the lineage of one horse, Northern Dancer, and that his foot problem has been exacerbated in his descedants by inbreeding.


http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB120968356843561083-tMOh6md5tsfD_6m4voaXNyFGS0M_20080601.html?mod=tff_ main_tff_top

that's interesting. I thought it was Native Dancer that was known for that. I went to this site:

http://www.pedigreequery.com/barbaro4

and you can look up the pedigree of any thoroughbred. It showed that Barbaro and Eight Belles are both of Native Dancer's line, but that only Eight Belles is from Northern Dancer's line. Native Dancer was Northern Dancer's grandsire, and I found a lot more articles when I googled "Native Dancer foot problem" than I did when I googled "Northern Dancer foot problem" including a mention of Barbaro and Eight Belles' common lineage. Maybe I'm off on this, or maybe WSJ screwed up their research a little. ;)

This article refers to Native Dancer: http://www.marco.org/290

Actually, there is a WSJ article linked in that article that says it's Native Dancer. It said that EVERY horse starting this Kentucky Derby could trace itself back to Native Dancer.

[77devil]

that's interesting. I thought it was Native Dancer that was known for that. I went to this site:

http://www.pedigreequery.com/barbaro4

and you can look up the pedigree of any thoroughbred. It showed that Barbaro and Eight Belles are both of Native Dancer's line, but that only Eight Belles is from Northern Dancer's line. Native Dancer was Northern Dancer's grandsire, and I found a lot more articles when I googled "Native Dancer foot problem" than I did when I googled "Northern Dancer foot problem" including a mention of Barbaro and Eight Belles' common lineage. Maybe I'm off on this, or maybe WSJ screwed up their research a little. ;)

This article refers to Native Dancer: http://www.marco.org/290

Actually, there is a WSJ article linked in that article that says it's Native Dancer. It said that EVERY horse starting this Kentucky Derby could trace itself back to Native Dancer.

I typed the wrong Dancer. Pretty amazing that the inbreeding is such that every horse in the field is related to Native Dancer.

[DevilHorse]

A few last thoughts on Eight Belle's demise and the breed before the Preakness...

Unsoundness has been bred into the thoroughbreds for a long time, and this is part of the un-natural selection that people put upon that breed. We naturally put a premium on wanting to breed to the horse most likely to make the most money, and that is a horse that will go to stud rather than win a lot of races; that takes brilliant 2 and 3 year old speed rather than stoutness and soundness that provides a long career. Who will breed to a horse knowing that, he's a little slower, but he won't break down for years and years.

Native Dancer is one of many thoroughbreds that may have had a weakness that could be pointed at that was passed on. An obvious example that comes to mind is Reviewer. That one had brilliant speed and broke down after a couple of starts. His foals were known to be fragile but fast, including Ruffian. And Reviewer has no Native Dancer blood, so it is around.

Did you ever wonder where the term "horsing around" came from? If you've ever watched horses in the field together, you know what I'm talking about. That thought and others is more clearly articulated in this commentary by Jim Squires of the NY Times (pointed out by Kathy Parker of the Horseman and Fair World)
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/05/sports/othersports/05rail.html?_r=3&sq=jim%20squires&st=nyt&oref=slogin&scp=1&pagewanted=print&oref=slogin

For those who don't want to read the article, the paragraph of interest states the following, "Horses, especially thoroughbreds, are constantly at risk. Watching a foal run behind its mother in a paddock hours after being born is not unlike watching your 3-year-old running headlong down the sidewalk toward the street after breaking away from your handhold. Watching a herd of yearlings racing recklessly across your pasture bucking and kicking at one another is not unlike watching your teenager leave in a car driven by a 16-year-old with a lead foot and the attention span of a flashbulb."

Horses break down often, unfortunately; and it is most likely to occur when they run, and that is what they were born to do.

On to the Preakness.

Larry
Devilhorse