Predict men's starting 5, minutes, in 2007-08

[MChambers]

In the context of writing concise and lucid prose, I would take that as a compliment.

But Greybeard always has something interesting to contribute. Definitely on my top ten list of contributors to this board.

[Bob Green]

Last year, we struggled on offense and received virtually no production past our first four starters. Players five through nine didn't produce any significant offense.


Player Games Min Pts ppg
Nelson 33 1052 465 14.09
McRoberts 33 1164 430 13.03
Scheyer 33 1112 402 12.18
Paulus 33 1068 389 11.79
Henderson 32 618 219 6.84
McClure 33 716 138 4.18
Thomas 31 463 124 4.00
Zoubek 32 235 98 3.06
Pocius 27 193 52 1.93

Coach K has stated we will play uptempo and play a deep bench this year. A key indicator of our success will be the level of production achieved by players five through nine (or 11). Singler will need to replace McRoberts numbers and with Gerald Henderson healthy, I expect his numbers to increase. So the players I will be watching closely during the exhibition games and first couple of regular games are: Thomas, Zoubek, Smith, and King (also McClure & Pocius if they are healthy enough to play). Framing my point into a traditional viewpoint - we need points off the bench. Last year we couldn't get points from the bench or our fifth starter.

I'm excited about the possibilities for this season and am looking forward to the games starting. I'm ready for an uptempo game fueled by pressure defense!

[Wander]

I've said it before but I think Jon Scheyer will be the best 6th man in the ACC. Only guy who might take that away from him is whichever one of NC State's four big guys don't start.

[JasonEvans]

I've said it before but I think Jon Scheyer will be the best 6th man in the ACC. Only guy who might take that away from him is whichever one of NC State's four big guys don't start.

Or Gerald Henderson will be the best 6th man in the ACC.

[Wander]

Um, okay dude.

[Clipsfan]

Um, okay dude.

If you feel that you can be so assertive about something that we don't know for sure, why do you respond is such a way to someone who reasonably says otherwise?

[SilkyJ]

If you feel that you can be so assertive about something that we don't know for sure, why do you respond is such a way to someone who reasonably says otherwise?

he had me at dude. he had me at dude.

[Patrick Yates]

Let's not start this whole Henderson vs Scheyer donnybrook again. Whoever starts, starts. We don't get to see practice, or sit in on strategy sessions. K will make his decision based on who is playing better both in games and in practice, with little consideration paid to last year or unrealized potential. I suspect that both will see time in the starting lineup before all is said and done.

That said, I personally will believe the Up-Tempo thing when I see it. Going deep in the bench and running up and down the court have been widely predicted every year for the last 4-5 years, and it hasn't happend. K will play those players with whom he has a certain comfort level, what ever that level happens to be. That may mean 10+ players contributing, or 7 players. We won't know until the season starts. All we have are a few open practices, which I know are different from the closed ones (so said Shane, Elton, J-will and others during my time at Duke), and a meaningless scrimmage. We won't know until the season opener. We'll play how we play, regardless of what anyone outside of K thinks is right.

Regardless, I've played the "THIS is the year we've got enough talent and are going go deep in the bench and run" expectation game, and been subsequently burned, to play anymore. Those expectations have gone nowhere, and until I see otherwise, I expect Singler, Paulus, and Nelson to play 30-35+ mpg each, with Hendo and Scheyer each getting 25-30 mpg, and with the others getting sporadic minutes. I hope I am wrong, but until I see uptempo, I won't beleive it.

Patrick Yates

[Cameron]

If Scheyer doesn't start--and, as many know, I expect him to--he might possibly become the first Blue Devil in history to lead the team in scoring off the bench. He has that kind of capabilty. There is no question about it. Let's put it this way, even if Jon starts every game off on the bench, he'll still end the season top three in minutes played. It will be Jon on the court the majority of the second half and in crunch time. Whose spot he replaces the majority of that time, we'll have to wait and see.

However, I think Jon will be top three in scoring for us this season, if not one or two. As of right now (since none of the freshman have played anyone as of yet), Jon is our team's best all-around scorer. He can do it from so many ways--on the drive, creating free throw attempts, shooting from deep, mid range pull-up--and is very, very dangerous when he's feeling it. Gerald is a close second in the scoring department, IMO, but Jon just has that pure scorer's mentality. He's almost like a little Danny Ainge. Can pass, shoot, score in bunches when hot, plays with a tremendous basketball IQ, just knows where to be at all times.

I can't wait for the season to get underway.

[mgtr]

I agree that we do not know who will start, though I have my views. But, the bottom line is that I believe that I have much stronger support for two players -- Paulus and Scheyer -- than many do on this board. However, we will learn something on Thursday and Saturday. As others have posted, the real test will be when we get into ACC play.

[Classof06]

If Scheyer doesn't start--and, as many know, I expect him to--he might possibly become the first Blue Devil in history to lead the team in scoring off the bench. He has that kind of capabilty. There is no question about it. Let's put it this way, even if Jon starts every game off on the bench, he'll still end the season top three in minutes played. It will be Jon on the court the majority of the second half and in crunch time. Whose spot he replaces the majority of that time, we'll have to wait and see.

However, I think Jon will be top three in scoring for us this season, if not one or two. As of right now (since none of the freshman have played anyone as of yet), Jon is our team's best all-around scorer. He can do it from so many ways--on the drive, creating free throw attempts, shooting from deep, mid range pull-up--and is very, very dangerous when he's feeling it. Gerald is a close second in the scoring department, IMO, but Jon just has that pure scorer's mentality. He's almost like a little Danny Ainge. Can pass, shoot, score in bunches when hot, plays with a tremendous basketball IQ, just knows where to be at all times.

I can't wait for the season to get underway.


If Scheyer is indeed the 6th man (something I agree with but don't necessarily see happening), he would easily be the top scorer of the bench. But to say he'd be top 3 in scoring might be a bit much. If Scheyer comes off the bench, that means Henderson starts. I think it's somewhat reasonable to say that in that scenario, Singler and Henderson would most likely be the two leading scorers. Then you have to account for Paulus and Demarcus (last year's leading scorer). That would make it hard for Scheyer to be #3, though it is possible because I expect Scheyer and Henderson to play starters' minutes regardless of who starts.

To say that Jon will definitely be in the game in the 2nd half or during crunch time is pretty short-sighted. Though I think that's certainly possible, we have absolutely no way of knowing that. You can bet Singler and Henderson will probably be on the floor because those are the two purest scorers on the team. You know either Paulus or Smith needs to be on the floor because someone needs to run the show. And given Demarcus' versatility, experience and defensive abilities, it's hard to imagine him on the bench in a close game. I also think to say Scheyer is the team's best all-around scorer is just wrong. For one, he isn't even the leading returning scorer (Demarcus). And, even if you're not including freshman, I would still say Gerald is more of a scorer; if I need a bucket in crunch time, Gerald's getting the rock before Scheyer. Just my $0.02..

[gw67]

Scheyer may play a lot at the end of games because he is the best free throw shooter on the team.

gw67

[throatybeard]

I'm not talking analysis here; I'm talking Pavlovian gut reaction, during the flow of the game. I'm talking Chris Collins is standing with the ball, relatively unguarded, 32 feet from the hoop, and before you have time to think, do you feel something good or something bad is going to happen?

Last year, there were points at which I cringed with every pass, except when Scheyer was the recipient. He was the only guy whose hands I wanted to see the ball in. Later in the year, I became OK with Paulus. But fact is, the whole offense gave the impression of being out of control a lot of the time. (Nelson even manages to look completely out-of-control when I think he must actually be under control).

It is for this reason that I cannot imagine that Scheyer won't be in "the ending five." He projects calm and restraint rather than hilarity and riot. I don't give 2 rats who starts. Who's in there with 3 minutes left?

And many thanks to to parties who hijacked this into yet another starting five thread.

[MrBisonDevil]

...I expect Scheyer and Henderson to play starters' minutes regardless of who starts.

I agree. I think number of starts is an overrated statistic when you have a talented bench. Coach K learned a lot about effectively using deep benches this past summer with USA Basketball. I think those experiences will carry over to Duke this year.

I expect to see a few Corey Maggette-type impact role players coming from our bench this year. Corey’s role was offensive impact and I expect our bench players will have specific impact roles (defensive or offensive) while earning significant minutes.

As a 'non-starter' in 1998-99, Corey Maggette team ranks were: #7 in starts (3 starts), #6 in minutes (18mpg), #5 rebounds (4rpg) #4 in points (11ppg) & #4 in assists (2apg). We could have 2-4 current players with similar kinds of bench impact. We will have to wait and see which players.

[jimsumner]

If you're looking for examples of bench production, check out David Henderson, c. 1984 and 1985. Third on the team in scoring both seasons.

[SilkyJ]

Scheyer may play a lot at the end of games because he is the best free throw shooter on the team.

gw67

best point in this thread, imho.


I
And many thanks to to parties who hijacked this into yet another starting five thread.

Unfortunately they are slightly related b/c we are talking about production from our bench, so who starts is kind of related...fair point nonetheless, we as a board need to try this from happening... only you can prevent hijacking.

As you and others else pointed out though, you can still be quite productive, especially in the system we plan on employing...so its not THAT important for who is the 5th starter/6th man. And I expect both of them will start quite a few games...


If Scheyer doesn't start--and, as many know, I expect him to--he might possibly become the first Blue Devil in history to lead the team in scoring off the bench. He has that kind of capabilty. There is no question about it.

Not sure about this one. Does he have the capability, yes, but thats basically saying "there's a chance." Well there is also a chance that Demarcus will win the wooden award, but I don't think its gonna happen.

Unless his shot has gotten quicker (anybody who saw Blue-white????) and better, I say no way he could lead us in scoring. What makes you think he would overtake DeMarcus, who is another tremendous scorer?



That said, I personally will believe the Up-Tempo thing when I see it. Going deep in the bench and running up and down the court have been widely predicted every year for the last 4-5 years, and it hasn't happend. K will play those players with whom he has a certain comfort level, what ever that level happens to be. That may mean 10+ players contributing, or 7 players. We won't know until the season starts. All we have are a few open practices, which I know are different from the closed ones (so said Shane, Elton, J-will and others during my time at Duke), and a meaningless scrimmage. We won't know until the season opener. We'll play how we play, regardless of what anyone outside of K thinks is right.


Patrick- I will agree with you on one part: I'll believe the whole "going deep in our bench" when I see it, but as for the tempo thing, that's not just been predicted by us, but K has come out and said that and the players have commented on the new style of offense we are implementing. We are definitely going to run more this year, unless Coach K is just lying his *ss off right now...

As for utilizing the bench, we'll see, but I would imagine we will at least use it more than we used to, which could mean the 8-11 guys see 10-12mpg or it could mean 6-8mpg...

[Patrick Yates]

Patrick- I will agree with you on one part: I'll believe the whole "going deep in our bench" when I see it, but as for the tempo thing, that's not just been predicted by us, but K has come out and said that and the players have commented on the new style of offense we are implementing. We are definitely going to run more this year, unless Coach K is just lying his *ss off right now...

As for utilizing the bench, we'll see, but I would imagine we will at least use it more than we used to, which could mean the 8-11 guys see 10-12mpg or it could mean 6-8mpg...


In my mind, running, at least, running effectively, and going Deep in the bench are linked. If we don't have a deep rotation, we will not be able to run effectively. You can't run uptempo with 6-8 guys for an entire season. They will wear down, or slow down at the very least.

And yes, I remember 01. There isn't a J-Will, Shane, or Boozer (or Sanders, at least as far as a running big) on this team. Those were different athletes, and the extra time between weekend helped tremendously (They tended to slow down some during the second game of the weekend). If K shortens this team to 6-8 players, they will have nowhere near the effectiveness when running as did that glorious team.

I think K intends to run, I really do. But, we need the whole bench (of legitimate hoopsters) to play significant minutes, be that 5 mpg for some or 15-20 mpg for others. A short bench will not succeed at running for any extended period of time.

To get closer to on-topic, think we need to look at our bench as the players who are 6 - 9, not 5 - 9. I remember several years ago, at UNC, when Smith rotated the starters each game, based on the opinion that he had 6 guys who deserved to start. He then went with the hot hand. I would not be shocked to see something like that this year. Only 2 players are locks in my opinion, Singler and Paulus. K will probably start one other big, so that leaves two slots open for Nelson, Scheyer, and Henderson.

Honestly, I would not mind seeing a rotation among the starters. He can do it based on matchups, or just a blind rotation. Once the game starts, whoever has the hot hand plays. I think this is equitable. Of course, once the season gets underway it might be obvious who should start, which would moot these arguments.

Patrick Yates

[phaedrus]

Not sure about this one. Does he have the capability, yes, but thats basically saying "there's a chance." Well there is also a chance that Demarcus will win the wooden award, but I don't think its gonna happen.

Unless his shot has gotten quicker (anybody who saw Blue-white????) and better, I say no way he could lead us in scoring. What makes you think he would overtake DeMarcus, who is another tremendous scorer?




Not that Nelson can't have improved from junior to senior year (as has been discussed ad nauseum on another thread) but don't you think it's likely that Scheyer's freshman-to-soph leap will be larger than Demarcus' junior-to-senior improvement? I don't think Scheyer is most likely to lead the team in scoring, necessarily, but I think he has as good a shot as anyone else.

I have a hard time imagining that Scheyer, Singler, Nelson, Paulus, and Henderson don't all average between 12-17 ppg.

[Wander]

Geez, I'm sorry I've offended so many people.

Going back to what the original guy said, my point is that we're going to have some quality production off our bench - unless we get ridiculously small and go with four guards and Singler. But I think most agree that isn't going to happen.

[ACCBBallFan]

In my mind, running, at least, running effectively, and going Deep in the bench are linked. If we don't have a deep rotation, we will not be able to run effectively. You can't run uptempo with 6-8 guys for an entire season. They will wear down, or slow down at the very least.

And yes, I remember 01. There isn't a J-Will, Shane, or Boozer (or Sanders, at least as far as a running big) on this team. Those were different athletes, and the extra time between weekend helped tremendously (They tended to slow down some during the second game of the weekend). If K shortens this team to 6-8 players, they will have nowhere near the effectiveness when running as did that glorious team.

I think K intends to run, I really do. But, we need the whole bench (of legitimate hoopsters) to play significant minutes, be that 5 mpg for some or 15-20 mpg for others. A short bench will not succeed at running for any extended period of time.

To get closer to on-topic, think we need to look at our bench as the players who are 6 - 9, not 5 - 9. I remember several years ago, at UNC, when Smith rotated the starters each game, based on the opinion that he had 6 guys who deserved to start. He then went with the hot hand. I would not be shocked to see something like that this year. Only 2 players are locks in my opinion, Singler and Paulus. K will probably start one other big, so that leaves two slots open for Nelson, Scheyer, and Henderson.

Honestly, I would not mind seeing a rotation among the starters. He can do it based on matchups, or just a blind rotation. Once the game starts, whoever has the hot hand plays. I think this is equitable. Of course, once the season gets underway it might be obvious who should start, which would moot these arguments.

Patrick Yates

I think you can pencil in Nelson for his defense, Singler as best player and Paulus as most experienced PG, at least initially.

Then anything goes including possibly both Gerald and Jon, but there is also a few scenarios with neither of them if Nolan's defense gets even better.

That could be Paulus-Nolan-Nelson-Singler-(Lance/King/Zoubek). If King turns into another Nelson that is hot at beginning of games but then disappears, start those two and then bring in the reserves if Taylor and Nelson cool off.

Or Paulus-Nolan-Nelson-Singler-Lance for full court pressure with more height.

As others have said , who starts is more of a bulletin board thing since most will play roughly the same number of minutes regardless of whether they start.

In context of the thread, I do think instead of top 4 and a gap Duke will have 6-8 players average close to double figures this year, and no one average more than 15 PPG due to balanced attack.

Only guys I would not count on for anywhere near 10 PPG are Lance, McClure and Marty.

Zoubek's 10 may be ugly but he will score a lot due to height advantage.

Nelson's won't be things of beauty either but he did led the team last year.

Nolan could pick up a lot of breakaways off steals. King may do it in 4 shots.

In a 15 minute half, glorified scrimmage all 9 scored at least 8 points which would translate to over 10 in a regulation game but since no one will average much more than 30 MPG, can't do that mathematical exercise which would be assuming 9 guys play 40 minutes.

But considering the four top B-W scorers were Singler 23, Henderson 21, King 19 and Nolan 19, there's 4 candidates to take Josh's place from last year's top 4 double digit scorers, and to join the returning 3 of Nelson, Scheyer and Paulus for a total of 7, with Zoubek possibly being the 8th guy close to 10 PPG, even though team average is about 85 or so per game.

Singler and Henderson are the stronger candidates since they are much more assured of minutes than Nolan or King or Zoubek, but between Zoubek and King, very likely at least one of them gets enough minutes to score 10 PPG.

[jimsumner]

"I have a hard time imagining that Scheyer, Singler, Nelson, Paulus, and Henderson don't all average between 12-17 ppg."

This may be more ambitious than you realize. The 2001 Duke team is the only Duke team to have five guys average at least 12ppg.

[throatybeard]

In my mind, running, at least, running effectively, and going Deep in the bench are linked. If we don't have a deep rotation, we will not be able to run effectively. You can't run uptempo with 6-8 guys for an entire season. They will wear down, or slow down at the very least.

I agree with this in general, but I can think of at least three 6-7 deep squads that ran a lot and didn't seem to lose becuase they were gassed:

Georgia Tech mid 80s
UNLV 1990ish
UNC late 90s

[jimsumner]

Georgia Tech's 1990 Final Four team rarely went deeper than six players and averaged 88.5 ppg. So it can be done.

[cajundevil74]

Henderson is our best player. He was our best player at the end of last year. There is no way he doesn't start and play essentially whenever he's not winded.

[Cameron]

Georgia Tech's 1990 Final Four team rarely went deeper than six players and averaged 88.5 ppg. So it can be done.

It can, but Lethal Weapon 3 was an extraordinary basketball club, pretty much legendary in ACC country. Dennis Scott, Kenny Anderson and Brian Oliver ALL averaged over 20 PPG in 1990. Tough not to score nearly 90 a game when you have that sick of talent.

http://www.skylinepictures.com/Georgia_Tech_gt6_large.jpg

[SilkyJ]

Not that Nelson can't have improved from junior to senior year (as has been discussed ad nauseum on another thread) but don't you think it's likely that Scheyer's freshman-to-soph leap will be larger than Demarcus' junior-to-senior improvement? I don't think Scheyer is most likely to lead the team in scoring, necessarily, but I think he has as good a shot as anyone else.

I have a hard time imagining that Scheyer, Singler, Nelson, Paulus, and Henderson don't all average between 12-17 ppg.

I think its likely that his improvement from fresh to soph will be larger than demarcus' but I am not certain. A few reasons why I think demarcus' junior-senior transition can/will be significant: Demarcus' first full healthy year was last year, and I think he struggled as the leader of team last year. He is a quiet guy and I just dont think he was ready, and while Paulus was mentally, his game wasn't quite there, and I think Demarcus would try to take over sometimes and force it. He'll be better at that this year. Also, as has been discussed, is the alleviated defensive pressure he will have to apply with nolan smith and gerald on the floor more (and hopefully with Paulus a better defender now that he is healthy).

Also, Scheyer didn't get any bigger from last year, which he needed to.

Lastly, is the style of play. If we play uptempo, it is more suited to Demarcus' game and so I think he'll score quite a bit...hopefully around 16ppg, and I don't think scheyer will average over 13-14.

[ACCBBallFan]

Poor Duke – Post Defender by Committee.

With Lance Assist to Turnover ratio of 1:43 last year and with Zoubek literally a walking a turnover machine, and with Taylor King never seeing a shot he did not like, Duke likely gets zero Assists from its post position.

Their only center sized center Brian Zoubek is turnover and foul prone and likely only plays about 15 minutes a game. Sure he scores some points, maybe 7-10 being so big but it may be because he grabs his own misses before he can even score. Before he fouls out he also grabs some rebounds, maybe 4-6, but that’s about it. Rebounds might help Duke start a fast break up tempo, but don’t expect Zoubs to be able to last very long at that pace.

Then there’s Lance an undersized post defender. He may get a few steals, say 3 or so in his 15 minutes, but he may also foul out since he drew some cheap ones when hedging on defense last year. He’ll probably only get a couple rebounds on lucky bounces, and maybe 4 points on his somewhat improved 12-15 footer, but not a real back to the basket player.

Now they are stuck playing a non post player, Taylor the gunner King in the post for 10 minutes since he is their second heaviest guy at 230 pounds after Zoubek’s 268 pounds. Yeh, yeh, he has long arms and may grab 2-3 rebounds to start a fast break and he would be dangerous on the secondary break, probably even score 6-9 points in those 10 minutes, hitting 2 or 3 from another zip code, but post player. Give me a break.

So playing these three guys generates lots of turnovers and puts the opponent into the free throw penalty a lot sooner.

But wait, add this up and Duke gets 40 minutes of non true post player post play, 17 – 23, call it 20 points, 7 – 11 rebounds, call it 9, and 3 or 4 steals. If it was one guy doing that, pretty darn good center: 20 points, 9 boards and 3 steals. In fact, so good they let him have 15 fouls, though no assists and lots of turnovers.

And the good thing is with three different skill sets, post defender by committee (or PDC would be his initials if he were one player) is a very versatile virtual player who coach K can mix and match to each of their individual strengths against various opponents and avoid their individual weaknesses to some extent.

Once his main guy against that opponent fouls out, he can not mask their weaknesses as well not leverage their strengths as well.

Eventually they may all foul out and coach K is stuck playing his best 5 guys at end of game with Singer in the 5 position and Henderson at the 4, what he would want to do anyway if he thought they could last 40 minutes but they only get 5 fouls each, not the 15 PDC is allowed.

So maybe PDC is not as big an inhibitor as some pessimists and nay-sayers are making it out to be. Until the opposing center scores 20 points, grabs 8 boards and gets 3 steals, Duke is breaking even without a post presence, and just needs to out perform the opponent at the 1-4 spots.

[Wander]

I don't necessarily disagree with your conclusion, it's a fair point, but I know that trying to predict players' numerical stats in the preseason is usually an exercise in futility.

For example, Lance Thomas is going to get three steals in 15 minutes of play? Duhon is Duke's all-time leader in steals with 300. I don't feel like doing the exact math, but that's like 2 steals per game over his career. I don't think Lance Thomas is going to be stealing the ball at triple the rate that Duke's all-time leader did. ;)

[ACCBBallFan]

I don't necessarily disagree with your conclusion, it's a fair point, but I know that trying to predict players' numerical stats in the preseason is usually an exercise in futility.

For example, Lance Thomas is going to get three steals in 15 minutes of play? Duhon is Duke's all-time leader in steals with 300. I don't feel like doing the exact math, but that's like 2 steals per game over his career. I don't think Lance Thomas is going to be stealing the ball at triple the rate that Duke's all-time leader did. ;)
Fair point, but agree steals from post defenders is least of Duke's post defense worries, whether it is none or one instead of 3.

I purposely stayed away from blocked shots since I much prefer altered shots that do not garner even more fouls.

But one point I meant to mention and forgot to is that these unorthodox post players might even draw some fouls against their post counterpart which is all gravy since none match up one on one.

Probably more likely Zoubek because of his height or King pulling them out of their comfort area in the post to 3-land on defense but Lance supposedly has a pretty quick first step that may draw a foul occasionally too.

If each could draw 1-2 fouls in their 10-15 minutes that's 3-6 on the other big guy, plush a guy who is fresh playing against a guy who might have played 30 mintes.

[Wander]

That sounds like a great idea if we can pull it off. Lance is pretty good at both drawing fouls and getting them himself. If we could use him as a "sacrifice" against teams with an especially good post scorer by quickly piling up fouls on Lance and his counterpart, that would be awesome.

[lavell12]

I know people gave him flake at every turn but I think Duke will really miss Josh McRoberts. Had McRoberts returned to Duke I actually think they would be a national title contendor. You can't have no inside presence and win a national title. Josh would be a perfect fit to with run'n gun game Duke will have this year.

[ACCBBallFan]

I know people gave him flake at every turn but I think Duke will really miss Josh McRoberts. Had McRoberts returned to Duke I actually think they would be a national title contendor. You can't have no inside presence and win a national title. Josh would be a perfect fit to with run'n gun game Duke will have this year.I agree.

Make no mistake this post defender by committee will help against many opponents, but not even all regular season ones, but

Duke has to face the music in sweet 16 or Elite 8, unless Zoubek has quantum improvement,

with gradually improvements form 10-15 MPG to an eventual 20-25 MPG and consistent double-doubles, or a few other guys like Singler and Henderson have to max out in NCAA's.

[Ignatius07]

I don't think many people would argue that Duke is better without McRoberts, at least this year. He will be missed most on the defensive end, of course. But let's not forget how much K tried to force McRoberts to become an offensive threat. If he were lacing it up for the Devils right now, he'd probably be marginally better offensively, and we'd still be pounding the ball to him, waiting for him to live up to his reputation. Granted K might release some of the reins on Henderson and Singler, but McRoberts would still be "the guy" and would probably get the vast majority of important shots. Without him, the team is allowed to play more naturally (instead of trying to force a player to become a star) and they will be better for it next year.

[pfrduke]

Last year, we struggled on offense and received virtually no production past our first four starters. Players five through nine didn't produce any significant offense.


Player Games Min Pts ppg
Nelson 33 1052 465 14.09
McRoberts 33 1164 430 13.03
Scheyer 33 1112 402 12.18
Paulus 33 1068 389 11.79
Henderson 32 618 219 6.84
McClure 33 716 138 4.18
Thomas 31 463 124 4.00
Zoubek 32 235 98 3.06
Pocius 27 193 52 1.93

Coach K has stated we will play uptempo and play a deep bench this year. A key indicator of our success will be the level of production achieved by players five through nine (or 11). Singler will need to replace McRoberts numbers and with Gerald Henderson healthy, I expect his numbers to increase. So the players I will be watching closely during the exhibition games and first couple of regular games are: Thomas, Zoubek, Smith, and King (also McClure & Pocius if they are healthy enough to play). Framing my point into a traditional viewpoint - we need points off the bench. Last year we couldn't get points from the bench or our fifth starter.

I'm excited about the possibilities for this season and am looking forward to the games starting. I'm ready for an uptempo game fueled by pressure defense!

Don't make the mistake of equating points-per-game with production. You can't make this comparison accurately without noting that 5-9 played substantially fewer minutes. On a points/40 basis the drop off from the first 4 to 5-9 is not nearly as significant. Our top 4 averaged 15.34 pts/40, and the 5-9 guys averaged 11.34 pts/40. Henderson and Zoubek produced on a level comparable to the top 4 (Zoubek's pts/40 was actually second only to Nelson on the team). Yes, there were guys who didn't score a lot last year (McClure, Lance), but we got pretty solid production out of our collective 5th spot to complement the 4 guys who played the lion's share of the minutes (and were usually options 1-4 in the offense). At the very least, it's an overstatement to say that 5-9 gave us "virtually no production" and "didn't produce any significant offense."


I remember several years ago, at UNC, when Smith rotated the starters each game, based on the opinion that he had 6 guys who deserved to start. He then went with the hot hand. I would not be shocked to see something like that this year.

This is tangential, but I believe it was Gut that had the "6 starters" in 1998. He rotated (alphabetically, if I remember correctly) between Carter, Okulaja, Williams, Ndiaye, Cota, and Jamison. A lot of Heels blame the final four loss to Utah on Shammond Williams sitting on the bench at the start of the Utah game. He had one of the hottest hands up to that point in the tourney, but was just 2-12 (1-9 on 3s) in losing to the Utes.

[Jumbo]

And yes, I remember 01.

Out of curiosity, how far before 2001 do you remember?

[Jumbo]

Henderson is our best player. He was our best player at the end of last year. There is no way he doesn't start and play essentially whenever he's not winded.

Glad you've supported that argument. Was he Duke's best player against VCU (28 minutes, 8 points)? He had two big games -- 15 vs. Maryland and 16 vs. UNC. Otherwise, he cracked double-digits five times all season. How on earth can you say he was Duke's best player at the end of last year, or declare that he's currently Duke's best player when the team hasn't even played a game yet?

[Bob Green]

Don't make the mistake of equating points-per-game with production. You can't make this comparison accurately without noting that 5-9 played substantially fewer minutes. On a points/40 basis the drop off from the first 4 to 5-9 is not nearly as significant. Our top 4 averaged 15.34 pts/40, and the 5-9 guys averaged 11.34 pts/40. Henderson and Zoubek produced on a level comparable to the top 4 (Zoubek's pts/40 was actually second only to Nelson on the team). Yes, there were guys who didn't score a lot last year (McClure, Lance), but we got pretty solid production out of our collective 5th spot to complement the 4 guys who played the lion's share of the minutes (and were usually options 1-4 in the offense). At the very least, it's an overstatement to say that 5-9 gave us "virtually no production" and "didn't produce any significant offense."



Your point is valid. I originally took a look at points-per-minute played and observed that Henderson and Zoubek "produced" at a level equal to Nelson, McRoberts, Scheyer and Paulus. However, part of the production equation is being able to stay on the court. I decided to omit the ppm column of my table because the end objective is to score more points than your opponent per game. Therefore, I believe the points-per-game stat is germane and I stick by my assessment that players 5 - 9 "didn't produce any significant offense."

I concede that you (prfduke) know more about stats than I do as you have posted some great stats and comments, but I really believe we need (and will have) more than four consistent scorers to be successful.

Finally, I'm glad this thread has returned to a discussion of offensive production after being initially hijacked into another "Who will start" thread.

[Bob Green]

Finally, I'm glad this thread has returned to a discussion of offensive production after being initially hijacked into another "Who will start" thread.

I spoke too soon. The thread hijack is now complete. :mad:

[throatybeard]

I spoke too soon. The thread hijack is now complete. :mad:

Sorry Bob. I know you did your best. Ultimately, I tossed it into the S5 thread b/c that's where it went.

[cajundevil74]

Jumbo - Stats don't tell the complete picture, so I will just supply my reasoning - (1) Henderson's progress from the beginning of the year to the end was more than any other players - he was starting to get 'it',
(2) Henderson has MUCH more athleticism than any other current Duke player, and more than most if not all past Duke players, and was dominant in stretches (e.g., UNC),
(3) I'm assuming that Henderson will have the typical Fresh-to-Soph improvement, and even at the end of last year he was the best player.

[Jumbo]

Jumbo - Stats don't tell the complete picture, so I will just supply my reasoning - (1) Henderson's progress from the beginning of the year to the end was more than any other players - he was starting to get 'it',
(2) Henderson has MUCH more athleticism than any other current Duke player, and more than most if not all past Duke players, and was dominant in stretches (e.g., UNC),
(3) I'm assuming that Henderson will have the typical Fresh-to-Soph improvement, and even at the end of last year he was the best player.

You did nothing to convince me that Henderson was Duke's best player at the end of last year, or the top player now. His athleticisim is a nice quality, but it's only one of several things that go into making a great player. If it were all about athleticism, we'd be seeing Michael Wilson in the NBA All-Star game every year. Instead, I don't think he ever made a pro team.

Henderson had two nice games late in last season. As you said, he played well "in stretches." Meanwhile, Nelson was consistently Duke's best defender throughout the season. Scheyer was consistently Duke's steadiest player throughout the season (and if you want to talk about big moments, how about scoring 26 points in your first Duke-UNC game)? McRoberts, for all his flaws, still did a number of critical things from start to finish, and had 22 points, 12 boards and five blocks against VCU. And certainly Greg Paulus' scoring improved over the course of the season at least as much as any quality of Henderson's.

This is not to say that Henderson can't become Duke's best player. Of course he can. But, for the second straight year, I fear the Gerald hype is out of control. And, in the process, other players who did more last season are being taken for granted.

[gw67]

Jumbo - I agree with your last post. Before last season, many on this board were proclaiming that Henderson was the best player on the team. It turns out that he had a decent freshman year but that he needed to improve in many areas (outside shooting, foul shooting, ballhandling, passing and defense). I suspect that many were wowed by his athleticism and equated that with being a good basketball player. He scored in double figures in some games at the end of the year and this led some to conclude that suddenly he was the best player on the team. As you correctly pointed out, Scheyer had several excellent games during his freshmen year and he got very few huzzahs from posters because his game wasn't spectacular.

With that behind us, I will be very suprised if Henderson hasn't improved and I suspect that he will have a very good soph year. It will be interesting to see how much he has improved in his weak areas. During the B-W game, he made 3-3 from behind the three-point line which may be a positive indicator. Like many others on the board, I'm hoping that he plays at a high level this year because that will help the team. But we need to wait and see.

gw67

[Jumbo]

Jumbo - I agree with your last post. Before last season, many on this board were proclaiming that Henderson was the best player on the team. It turns out that he had a decent freshman year but that he needed to improve in many areas (outside shooting, foul shooting, ballhandling, passing and defense). I suspect that many were wowed by his athleticism and equated that with being a good basketball player. He scored in double figures in some games at the end of the year and this led some to conclude that suddenly he was the best player on the team. As you correctly pointed out, Scheyer had several excellent games during his freshmen year and he got very few huzzahs from posters because his game wasn't spectacular.

With that behind us, I will be very suprised if Henderson hasn't improved and I suspect that he will have a very good soph year. It will be interesting to see how much he has improved in his weak areas. During the B-W game, he made 3-3 from behind the three-point line which may be a positive indicator. Like many others on the board, I'm hoping that he plays at a high level this year because that will help the team. But we need to wait and see.

gw67

Right, and similarly, I don't mean to diminish Henderson's accomplishments. He has an excellent chance to start and he'll definitely play big minutes. I think you will see a lot of lineup shuffling this year, and Henderson absolutely will be a critical player. I just think some of the hyperbole is unfair to the kid.

[Wander]

I don't think Henderson was the best player on the team at any point last year. I don't even think that's arguable to be honest.

My guess is that he's going to be the best player on the team this year. It's just a guess, but not an uninformed one.

[Kilby]

Wander,
I agree with you about Henderson. I don't know if he is the best on this year's team but only because I have not seen Singler play much. I don't know why it isn't more obvious to anyone that watched the team last year that Henderson was the only person that could take the ball a create his own shot (a good shot) at anytime. The only one. He still played under control and he was great on defense. I also think that Dukes relative lower performance in recent years comes because the athleticism on the team has been down. Play Henderson. Play Smith.

[cajundevil74]

People are seriously underestimating Henderson. Our recollections certainly differ on Henderson's performance at the end of last year, however there's no sense in getting into it - again, the lazy thing...

This year is a different story - Henderson is the best athlete since Maggette and an even better athlete than GHill. He has basketball skills too. I think Henderson's progression could be similar to Grant Hill's colllege game, in that Henderson's game will take some time to fully develop (hence the slow start to his fresh yr), but once it does he can put the entire team on his back (as he did at times during the UNC game, and will undoubtedly do at times this year).

My five - Paulus, Nelson, Henderson, Singler, Thomas
next 3/4 - Scheyer, Smith, Zoubek/King

- It will be interesting to see if K goes beyond an 8 player rotation. I absolutely love Pocious, but I'm afraid he might get caught in limbo because of his injury and the talent at guard.

[mgtr]

We are not going to answer the Henderson vs. Scheyer question or the Thomas vs. Zoubek question soon. But, in less than 24 hours we are going to find out Coach K's opinion as of tomorrow night. And as others (particularly Jumbo) have posted in various threads, it is likely that his opinion will change over the course of the season. It is going to be fun, fun, fun since her Daddy took the Tbird away.

[Jumbo]

This year is a different story - Henderson is the best athlete since Maggette and an even better athlete than GHill. He has basketball skills too. I think Henderson's progression could be similar to Grant Hill's colllege game, in that Henderson's game will take some time to fully develop (hence the slow start to his fresh yr), but once it does he can put the entire team on his back (as he did at times during the UNC game, and will undoubtedly do at times this year).

This is just so unfair to Gerald Henderson. A better athlete than Grant Hill? The same Grant Hill who did this (http://youtube.com/watch?v=wm7_uFQwW_I)? (Scroll to about the 7:55 mark, then watch the replay about 30 seconds after). Grant Hill isn't just arguably Duke's greatest athlete, he's one of the best athletes in basketball history. Before he was hurt, the guy could jump over and out-quick just about anyone in the NBA.

Gerald is a tremendous athlete. In particular, he has fantastic hops and strength. But that's setting the bar awfully high. And even if you want to compare their athleticism, you can't match up Gerald's game with Grant's. It's just silly. With Grant, you're talking about a 6'8" guy who was good enough to play PG as a frosh. Gerald is a 6'4" with nowhere close to the court vision or handle of Grant. Which is fine, because Grant Hill is the most talented player Duke has ever seen. And Gerald Henderson can still have a great season -- which I expect as a scorer and rebounder -- without coming close to Grant Hill's level. Please, let's temper the comparisons and expectations just a bit, okay?

[Kilby]

Grant Hill was just so smooth that sometimes it didn't look like he should be blowing by people.

[mgtr]

Only one GH is a Grant Hill.

[Jumbo]

Out of curiosity, how far before 2001 do you remember?

Patrick Yates, I'm still waiting for an answer...