FANTASTIC Atlanta Braves news

[wilson]

Seems the team was wildly profitable last season and will spend "many millions of dollars more" on next year's squad in comparison to recent ones:

http://www.ajc.com/sports/content/sports/braves/stories/2007/11/14/bravesbiz_1115.html?imw=Y

[EarlJam]

Seems the team was wildly profitable last season and will spend "many millions of dollars more" on next year's squad in comparison to recent ones:

http://www.ajc.com/sports/content/sports/braves/stories/2007/11/14/bravesbiz_1115.html?imw=Y

Awesome news. When I saw your post, I thought your message was going to be: It's official, Tom Glavine is coming back to Atlanta.

Do you think the Braves will get him? Should they? From a marketing stand-point, it makes all the sense in the world. Dude would put fans in the seat and create some excitement in Atlanta. Question is, will he ask for more money than he may be worth from a "contributing to wins" stand-point.

-EarlJam

[EarlJam]

Is it stand-point, standpoint, or stand point?

I'm paranoid now.

-EarlJam

[wilson]

Standpoint.
Will they? It certainly appears so. Should they? Debatable. The man definitely ain't what he used to be, and $8 million or so (the word on the street) seems steepish. From a nostalgic standpoint (there, I used it in a sentence), it would be great. I hope it'd be a one-year deal, followed by Tommy G's retirement. He could (hopefully) contribute, he and all the remaining jilted fans could make nice, and then retire wearing the proper uniform.
As far as the on-field prospects, it's a tossup. He looked awful at the end of last season, but so did the Braves' entire staff after Smoltz and Hudson. His season-long body of work was definitely better than anyone we ever had in the #3/4 slot in the rotation. All in all, I basically expect it to happen, and while I wouldn't/won't quite be ecstatic, I certainly won't be pissed. I think Glavine back to Atlanta is a net positive for the Braves.

[Channing]

I think Glavine will command in the 10 millionish range. He would primarily be an inning eater at this point in his career.

to be obscenely optimistic - apparently Mike Hampton looked good throwing on the side the other day.

If i had my druthers, Id rather make a move for Carlos Silva. Apparently this fireballer we picked up from Detroit is also going to get a shot at the big club.

[EarlJam]

I think Glavine will command in the 10 millionish range. He would primarily be an inning eater at this point in his career.

to be obscenely optimistic - apparently Mike Hampton looked good throwing on the side the other day.

If i had my druthers, Id rather make a move for Carlos Silva. Apparently this fireballer we picked up from Detroit is also going to get a shot at the big club.

I think Mike Hampton's just f@#$ing with us.

[throatybeard]

Glavine yes, depending on the price. 10 seems a bit much.

Glavine is still better than what we were putting out there with our 3-4-5.

[Bluedawg]

Awesome news. When I saw your post, I thought your message was going to be: It's official, Tom Glavine is coming back to Atlanta.

Do you think the Braves will get him? Should they? From a marketing stand-point, it makes all the sense in the world. Dude would put fans in the seat and create some excitement in Atlanta. Question is, will he ask for more money than he may be worth from a "contributing to wins" stand-point.

-EarlJam

Do you think the Braves will get him? Don't know

Should they? Yes!

[JasonEvans]

I wonder how Hampton insurance figures into this. It is my understanding that the Braves were given a refund on a healthy percentage of Mike Hampton's 14-million dollars last season by an insurance company. They did not get the money until the season was over so they could not really use it during the year but perhaps it is money they could use to boost next season's payroll.

Worth noting though-- seeing as Hampton will apparently at least attempt to pitch for the Braves in 2008, this insurance windfall would not happen again after the 2008 season.

--Jason "if the Bravos have money to spend-- perhaps they can sign a CFer in addition to a pitcher" Evans

[throatybeard]

Hampton, 35 years old, 2005 IP 69.1, 2006 IP zero, 2007 IP zero. Ouch.

[wilson]

I wonder how Hampton insurance figures into this. It is my understanding that the Braves were given a refund on a healthy percentage of Mike Hampton's 14-million dollars last season by an insurance company. They did not get the money until the season was over so they could not really use it during the year but perhaps it is money they could use to boost next season's payroll.

Worth noting though-- seeing as Hampton will apparently at least attempt to pitch for the Braves in 2008, this insurance windfall would not happen again after the 2008 season.

--Jason "if the Bravos have money to spend-- perhaps they can sign a CFer in addition to a pitcher" Evans

Yesterday's AJC article made no mention of Hampton insurance. It (at least implicitly) pointed more toward better gate receipts, stemming from renewed fan interest, which I think is in part directly attributable to the roster-building strategy of the past few years stressing local products and exciting young players. The fact that last year's team was much more competitive much later into the season than the previous one also couldn't have hurt.
The article also quoted new GM Frank Wren as saying the team planned to be active in both the free agent and trade markets. Jason, you're right that we need a CF in a bad way. But as for that position, I'd prefer a one-year stopgap measure in anticipation of another crop of young'uns at least one of whom will presumably be ready(ish) for 2009. Rather than locking new available cash into the outfield, I'd like to see it applied to the re-signing of Mark Teixeira, who was a resounding success last season.

[EarlJam]

Hampton, 35 years old, 2005 IP 69.1, 2006 IP zero, 2007 IP zero. Ouch.

Dude's done less work than I have over the past two years.

-EarlJam

[Channing]

Yesterday's AJC article made no mention of Hampton insurance. It (at least implicitly) pointed more toward better gate receipts, stemming from renewed fan interest, which I think is in part directly attributable to the roster-building strategy of the past few years stressing local products and exciting young players. The fact that last year's team was much more competitive much later into the season than the previous one also couldn't have hurt.
The article also quoted new GM Frank Wren as saying the team planned to be active in both the free agent and trade markets. Jason, you're right that we need a CF in a bad way. But as for that position, I'd prefer a one-year stopgap measure in anticipation of another crop of young'uns at least one of whom will presumably be ready(ish) for 2009. Rather than locking new available cash into the outfield, I'd like to see it applied to the re-signing of Mark Teixeira, who was a resounding success last season.

I heard a rumor (so take it for what its worth) that Francouer was going to try out center field, with Kelly Johnson in Right, Escobar at short, and Martine Prado at second. Personally, I wouldnt mind giving that a shot. I think Prado and Escobar at the top of the lineup could be very exciting.

[JasonEvans]

I heard a rumor (so take it for what its worth) that Francouer was going to try out center field, with Kelly Johnson in Right, Escobar at short, and Martine Prado at second. Personally, I wouldn't mind giving that a shot. I think Prado and Escobar at the top of the lineup could be very exciting.

I've been talking about Francouer's arm in center for a while. He played this position in the minors and get a good jump on the ball (though not Andruw like-- but then again, no one does).

If they went with this, they had better spend many, many millions on starting pitchers because the savings over last year's regulars would be HUGE. Essentially, this is last year's lineup with Escobar replacing Renteria's salary and Prado replacing Andruw's salary. That is something like a $20-million savings in your regulars.

Then again, they need to lock Texiera up long-term and that is probably something like $15 million a year ($6 million more than he currently makes) and they need to lock in Francouer long-term (he'd get something similar to McCann's $5 mill a season over 5 years, I would think) so you just took half of your savings and gave it to 2 guys who were already in place last season. Sigh.

The economics of baseball-- not easy!!

--Jason "at least Liberty does not plan to pocket the profits... that would suck!" Evans

[Channing]

looks like the Braves found their Centerfielder:

http://www.ajc.com/sports/content/sports/braves/stories/2007/11/16/bravesburst_1116.html
(traded Villareal for this guy)
"Anderson, a 2003 fourth-round draft pick, was the MVP of the 2006 Texas League All-Star game and in that same year he led the league for the second consecutive season in stolen bases and he ranked first with 173 hits. In 2004 Anderson led all of minor-league baseball with 78 stolen bases and in 2005 he was rated as the best defensive outfielder and the fastest base runner by Baseball America."

[Duvall]

looks like the Braves found their Centerfielder:


Unlikely - he hit .273 in AAA. He's a bench player.

[wilson]

Bravos have offered Glavine a contract, reported to be a one-year deal:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3114107
Tommy G (well, more like his agent) is said to be preparing a counter-offer.

[Channing]

he also hit over 350 in a short stint wit the Astros, is a fantastic fielder, and is lightning fast. I think he gets first crack at the job.

[Olympic Fan]

Okay, the Braves have money to spend. Where do you spend it?

Well, when I look at the everyday lineup, I see three great young players:

C -- McCann (23 years old)
RF -- Francouer (23 years old)
SS -- Escobar (24 years old)

Add:
1B -- Teixeira (27 years old) ... although he's only under contract for one more year ... it might be worth spending some of that excess money to sign him long-term.

Also:
3B -- Chipper Jones ... okay, he's aging (35) and he gets hurt a lot (134 games this year/ 600 ABs). But he was close to MVP quality -- his 1.029 OPS was the best in the NL.

That's five everyday positions that are locked up. That leaves:
2B -- Kelly Johnson (25) is close to a sure thing. Not a bad leadoff hitter or defender. And he could still get better. Also, Martin Prado has been touted as a future star for so long, it's easy to forget he's just 23 years old. I'd be comfortable letting Johnson and Prado play this spot -- plus Pete Orr is just a journeyman but he's a solid journeyman.
LF -- The Braves got a good season from Willie Harris and Matt Diaz as a platoon at this spot, but both are 29 and have never been anywhere near this good before. I wouldn't mind keeping Diaz as a fourth outfielder, but I think the Braves need an upgrade here.
CF -- The big question mark. I see mention of the Anderson kid picked up in the Villereal trade. He's got a shot. But don't forget Gorkys Hernandez, one of the two pickups from Detroit, in the Renteria trade. He's an even better long-term prospect, although he might be a year away (he just turns 20 this winter). Plus, there's a kid Jordan Schafer (a 2005 draft pick) who is rated even higher by Baseball America than Anderson or Hernandez.

I'm comfortable letting the kids fight it out for the CF job. The only position I'm not sold on is LF ... although the Harris/Diaz platoon isn't a black hole or anything.

No, the real money has to go to the pitching staff. Okay, what's the foundation:
-- Hudson and Smoltz have to be counted on to take two spots in the rotation. I'm holding my breath on Smoltz since he is 40 years old, but he was a stud last year, so I'm hoping he has another strong year or two. But you can't overwork him.
-- The kid Jair Jurrigans that came in the Renteria deal is supposed to be ready to be a starter. He's 22 and throws 93 MPH. They gave up an all-star SS ... they think this kid is ready.
-- I'm not sure I'd keep any of last year's duds, not in the rotation. Well, that's not fair. Davies (23) and James (25) are both young enough to get better. And Jo-Jo Reyes is a lefty with a live arm -- plus he's just 22 years old.
I'd put him in the pen with Mike Gonzales (who was great before he got hurt), Peter Moylan (a solid middle-relief guy) and maybe Joey Devine -- he was a top draft pick who bombed in his first stint with the Braves straight out of college, but came back from the minors late last season and was pretty strong in a brief showing (1.08 ERA in 10 appearances). He's still just 23 years old.

I'd LOVE to throw a healthy Mike Hampton in that mix. As for Glavine, I think the question is not so much his salary, but whether you can get him for one year or not. If you can get him for one year at $8 or even $10 million, it wouldn't be the worst deal in the world.

I guess if I were the Braves GM and had some money to spend, I'd order my priorities this way:

(1) Re-sign Teixeira
(2) Add a solid starting pitcher
(3) Add a solid closer
(4) Add a solid setup man
(5) Add a slugging LFer
(6) Maybe upgrade my backup catcher (Corky Miller is not much of a fill-in ... not sure how ready Brandon Pena is to play).

The Braves won 84 games last season -- nobody in the NFL won more than 90. They're not that far from contention.

[ugadevil]

nobody in the NFL won more than 90.

The Patriots could win more than 90 :D

I agree that the emphasis should be on pitching though. My only question is, if they stick with the young pitchers they have, how long do they give them? This past season could have been the year where they take their lumps and grow up a lot and then really start to produce this year. However, what if James and Reyes still struggle and don't show much signs of improving? I'm hoping this doesn't happen, but if it does, is it then time to move on?

The other young players with the organization are really looking good. I'm just hoping it carries over to the pitching staff.

[Channing]

Davies is going to do us no more harm!! he is in KC

[throatybeard]

Okay, the Braves have money to spend. Where do you spend it?

Well, when I look at the everyday lineup, I see three great young players:

C -- McCann (23 years old)
RF -- Francouer (23 years old)
SS -- Escobar (24 years old)

Add:
1B -- Teixeira (27 years old) ... although he's only under contract for one more year ... it might be worth spending some of that excess money to sign him long-term.

Also:
3B -- Chipper Jones ... okay, he's aging (35) and he gets hurt a lot (134 games this year/ 600 ABs). But he was close to MVP quality -- his 1.029 OPS was the best in the NL.

That's five everyday positions that are locked up. That leaves:
2B -- Kelly Johnson (25) is close to a sure thing. Not a bad leadoff hitter or defender. And he could still get better. Also, Martin Prado has been touted as a future star for so long, it's easy to forget he's just 23 years old. I'd be comfortable letting Johnson and Prado play this spot -- plus Pete Orr is just a journeyman but he's a solid journeyman.
LF -- The Braves got a good season from Willie Harris and Matt Diaz as a platoon at this spot, but both are 29 and have never been anywhere near this good before. I wouldn't mind keeping Diaz as a fourth outfielder, but I think the Braves need an upgrade here.
CF -- The big question mark. I see mention of the Anderson kid picked up in the Villereal trade. He's got a shot. But don't forget Gorkys Hernandez, one of the two pickups from Detroit, in the Renteria trade. He's an even better long-term prospect, although he might be a year away (he just turns 20 this winter). Plus, there's a kid Jordan Schafer (a 2005 draft pick) who is rated even higher by Baseball America than Anderson or Hernandez.

I'm comfortable letting the kids fight it out for the CF job. The only position I'm not sold on is LF ... although the Harris/Diaz platoon isn't a black hole or anything.

No, the real money has to go to the pitching staff. Okay, what's the foundation:
-- Hudson and Smoltz have to be counted on to take two spots in the rotation. I'm holding my breath on Smoltz since he is 40 years old, but he was a stud last year, so I'm hoping he has another strong year or two. But you can't overwork him.
-- The kid Jair Jurrigans that came in the Renteria deal is supposed to be ready to be a starter. He's 22 and throws 93 MPH. They gave up an all-star SS ... they think this kid is ready.
-- I'm not sure I'd keep any of last year's duds, not in the rotation. Well, that's not fair. Davies (23) and James (25) are both young enough to get better. And Jo-Jo Reyes is a lefty with a live arm -- plus he's just 22 years old.
I'd put him in the pen with Mike Gonzales (who was great before he got hurt), Peter Moylan (a solid middle-relief guy) and maybe Joey Devine -- he was a top draft pick who bombed in his first stint with the Braves straight out of college, but came back from the minors late last season and was pretty strong in a brief showing (1.08 ERA in 10 appearances). He's still just 23 years old.

I'd LOVE to throw a healthy Mike Hampton in that mix. As for Glavine, I think the question is not so much his salary, but whether you can get him for one year or not. If you can get him for one year at $8 or even $10 million, it wouldn't be the worst deal in the world.

I guess if I were the Braves GM and had some money to spend, I'd order my priorities this way:

(1) Re-sign Teixeira
(2) Add a solid starting pitcher
(3) Add a solid closer
(4) Add a solid setup man
(5) Add a slugging LFer
(6) Maybe upgrade my backup catcher (Corky Miller is not much of a fill-in ... not sure how ready Brandon Pena is to play).

The Braves won 84 games last season -- nobody in the NFL won more than 90. They're not that far from contention.

Awesome take, Olympic.

[JasonEvans]

The Braves are still looking for another CFer and if they get one for a bargain or find they have money to burn because they cannot find the pitching help they want then they may sign someone, but the presumption is that Anderson very well may be the starting CFer (http://www.ajc.com/braves/content/sports/braves/stories/2007/11/16/bravesburst_1116.html)next season...


Braves general manager Frank Wren said the 25-year-old rookie, a prototypical leadoff hitter, would provide insurance in case they can't acquire a more experienced center fielder this winter. But he made it clear the Braves were still looking and that Anderson wasn't assured of the job.

"We may get to March and he may be the guy," Wren said. "We felt it was important that we made this move now, to get a player who was more established and had played some at the major league level."

The kid has speed to burn. He had 40 steals in 130 games at AAA last year and was only caught stealing 8 times. The Braves have not had a steal threat like this on their roster in a while.

He's a career .290 hitter in the minors and had no trouble handling big league pitching in his September call-up last season. He is a strong defensive OFer and has played all 3 OF positions so even if we get another CFer, he may be able to move to LF too. He sounds like a very good pickup as he is 24 and could still improve a bit.

Worse comes to worse he is an inexpensive defensive replacement/pinch runner who can fill in anywhere in the OF you need him if someone gets hurt. What is not to like here?

-Jason "the Braves still expect Jordan Schafer to be the starting CF in 2009, perhaps even sooner" Evans

[wilson]

This morning's AJC reports that the Braves are "closing in on signing Glavine." Apparently, the team's initial offer was a $7 million, one year deal, which is believed to have been "almost enough" to get him:
http://www.ajc.com/sports/content/sports/braves/stories/2007/11/16/glavine_1117.html
Looks like he'll end up where he started. If he can do precisely what he did last season and just eat innings for us ahead of a still very solid bullpen, I call it a clear upgrade for the team, even at $8 or $9 million.

[YmoBeThere]

Looks like the Glavine deal is inked at $8 million

[Bluedawg]

Looks like the Glavine deal is inked at $8 million

Glavine going down to Georgia (http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/story/778632.html)


Glavine, who is married and has four children, kept his primary home in suburban Atlanta even after he signed with the Mets, and it was clear the crafty left-hander wanted to finish his career with the Braves when he turned down a $13 million option to return to New York in 2008, taking a $3 million buyout.

He then gave the Braves a bit of a hometown discount, something he wasn't willing to do five years ago. The contract includes no performance bonuses.


Welcome Home!

[wilson]

Dream scenario: Smoltz, Hudson, and Glavine pitch lights out all season, the bullpen continues its stellar work from last year. Smoltz edges TG for the Cy Young, announced just after the Braves complete a perfect 11-0 playoff run (following the 135-27 regular season). Chipper goes on to sign his extension (reportedly already in talks) for 8 years, $16 million. Francouer follows suit, deciding he wants to be a lifelong Brave, and signs an 18 year, $45 million contract.
Meanwhile, the Falcons draft the next great quarterback in the draft and the Hawks find a PG. DBR Off-Topic board explodes about how much people hate Atlanta sports.:D

[EarlJam]

Dream scenario: Smoltz, Hudson, and Glavine pitch lights out all season, the bullpen continues its stellar work from last year. Smoltz edges TG for the Cy Young, announced just after the Braves complete a perfect 11-0 playoff run (following the 135-27 regular season). Chipper goes on to sign his extension (reportedly already in talks) for 8 years, $16 million. Francouer follows suit, deciding he wants to be a lifelong Brave, and signs an 18 year, $45 million contract.
Meanwhile, the Falcons draft the next great quarterback in the draft and the Hawks find a PG. DBR Off-Topic board explodes about how much people hate Atlanta sports.:D

Wilson,

Based on your ability to accurately forecast all things sports (e.g., Andruw Jones every swing and the Sox sweep of the Rockies, etc.) I must say, you're good. You are very, very good.

But this. This scenario you paint. It just, well, it just seems like too much Wilson. But who knows. It could be that you, whether you know it or not, are the "controller." What you say, goes. The sports forces bend to your every will. If such is the case, and history would back you, then forecast on my brotha from anotha mutha! (Granted, I know you positioned this as a "dream scenario" vs. a "prediction.")

-EarlJam

[wilson]

Wilson,

Based on your ability to accurately forecast all things sports (e.g., Andruw Jones every swing and the Sox sweep of the Rockies, etc.) I must say, you're good. You are very, very good.

But this. This scenario you paint. It just, well, it just seems like too much Wilson. But who knows. It could be that you, whether you know it or not, are the "controller." What you say, goes. The sports forces bend to your every will. If such is the case, and history would back you, then forecast on my brotha from anotha mutha! (Granted, I know you positioned this as a "dream scenario" vs. a "prediction.")

-EarlJam

I actually began this as a legitimate, but optimistic view on the Braves' potential for next season. But then (sometime right after "Hudson," I think) it became what you read above.

[wilson]

I think it really says something about the class of the Braves organization that a guy like Tommy G, who definitely had interest from other clubs, flat out told his agent to talk to the Braves first and not even give the other folks a chance before he gave the Braves a shot. It'll also be nice to see him finally get the ovation he deserves at Turner Field again. EarlJam, Lavabe, et. al., we're definitely going to his first home start in April.

[Bluedawg]

Dream scenario: Smoltz, Hudson, and Glavine pitch lights out all season, the bullpen continues its stellar work from last year. Smoltz edges TG for the Cy Young, announced just after the Braves complete a perfect 11-0 playoff run (following the 135-27 regular season). Chipper goes on to sign his extension (reportedly already in talks) for 8 years, $16 million. Francouer follows suit, deciding he wants to be a lifelong Brave, and signs an 18 year, $45 million contract.
Meanwhile, the Falcons draft the next great quarterback in the draft and the Hawks find a PG. DBR Off-Topic board explodes about how much people hate Atlanta sports.:D

No team will sign an 18 year contract. The rest of it is OK

[Bluedawg]

I think it really says something about the class of the Braves organization that a guy like Tommy G, who definitely had interest from other clubs, flat out told his agent to talk to the Braves first and not even give the other folks a chance before he gave the Braves a shot. It'll also be nice to see him finally get the ovation he deserves at Turner Field again. EarlJam, Lavabe, et. al., we're definitely going to his first home start in April.

Plus he turned down 13 mil.

[Lavabe]

I think it really says something about the class of the Braves organization that a guy like Tommy G, who definitely had interest from other clubs, flat out told his agent to talk to the Braves first and not even give the other folks a chance before he gave the Braves a shot. It'll also be nice to see him finally get the ovation he deserves at Turner Field again. EarlJam, Lavabe, et. al., we're definitely going to his first home start in April.

Tommy G should be the 3rd - 5th home start. I expect Smoltz or Hudson would be the first two home starts.

The Braves need another starter.
Cheers,
Lavabe

[wilson]

Tommy G should be the 3rd - 5th home start. I expect Smoltz or Hudson would be the first two home starts.


Right. And I'll be at all of them.
As for another starter, I think Chuck James is still a solid candidate. Supposedly a couple of the new guys will have something to say about it as well.
Hope springs eternal...

[devildeac]

Tommy G should be the 3rd - 5th home start. I expect Smoltz or Hudson would be the first two home starts.

The Braves need another starter.
Cheers,
Lavabe

2 words, Mike Hampton(sad, expensive story-any one know if he will ever pitch again?):(

[Channing]

2 words, Mike Hampton(sad, expensive story-any one know if he will ever pitch again?):(

He threw a side session a couple weeks ago and felt pretty good . . . but we have heard that story before. Only time will tell . . .

[Olympic Fan]

Tommy G should be the 3rd - 5th home start. I expect Smoltz or Hudson would be the first two home starts.
The Braves need another starter. Lavabe

Well, if the kid Jurrigans isn't ready to take a spot in the rotation, then the Braves traded Renteria for less than value.

Yeah, Hampton would be a great addition to the rotation if he can make it. If not, I guess James is the best option.

[throatybeard]

I'm thrilled about this; I'm just mad it didn't get done before so that Tommy's 300 would be in a Braves uni.

I hope this cements the logo on his hall of fame plaque as an A and not an interlocking NY.

[duke74]

I'm thrilled about this; I'm just mad it didn't get done before so that Tommy's 300 would be in a Braves uni.

I hope this cements the logo on his hall of fame plaque as an A and not an interlocking NY.

...And why would we WANT to be represented by someone who pined away (boo hoo) last year wishing the Braves would have taken him back to achieve the 300th. He was OK (that's it, OK) in his 5 years here, but never really loved the Mets or NY. Pitched well enough and cashed his checks. That's OK and I wish him well. He seems to be an honorable guy, but he was always a Brave, even when wearing the "interlocking NY".

He and Mike "The schools are better in Denver (of course it's NOT the $)" Hampton should have fun together. (Perhaps he'll last more than 1/3 inning in his key start for the Braves.)

[Duvall]

(Perhaps he'll last more than 1/3 inning in his key start for the Braves.)

As I recall, he went eight innings.

[duke74]

As I recall, he went eight innings.

Not in his clutch last start for Mets, he didn't. 1/3 inning, 7 runs, 7 earned runs.

From SI.com (sorry about formatting):

LAST GAME PITCHING STATS
Date Result IP H R ER BB IBB K HR WP BK HB BF NPIT
Sep 30, 2007 LOSS vs FLA 0.1 5 7 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 9 36

[Duvall]

Not in his clutch last start for Mets, he didn't.

I was referring to his key start (http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/ATL/ATL199510280.shtml) for Atlanta.

[duke74]

I was referring to his key start (http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/ATL/ATL199510280.shtml) for Atlanta.

You mean 12 years ago -- at 29?? Braves also re-signing Warren Spahn? (I know, G-d rest his soul...no disrespect to him meant)

[throatybeard]

Not in his clutch last start for Mets, he didn't. 1/3 inning, 7 runs, 7 earned runs.

From SI.com (sorry about formatting):

LAST GAME PITCHING STATS
Date Result IP H R ER BB IBB K HR WP BK HB BF NPIT
Sep 30, 2007 LOSS vs FLA 0.1 5 7 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 9 36

Point taken, but the Mets' problems in September were a lot more numerous than that one start.

[duke74]

Point taken, but the Mets' problems in September were a lot more numerous than that one start.

Absolutely. Glavine was NOT the cause, just a glaring manifestation of the collapse of my Metsies. No argument from me at all.

No leadership from the manager; no bullpen; poor starting pitching...they all add up. Here's to '08.

[wilson]

Here's to '08.

Indeed. We're coming for you. Hope you enjoyed the mutts' short reign while it lasted.

[duke74]

Indeed. We're coming for you. Hope you enjoyed the mutts' short reign while it lasted.

Not sure the past tense is warranted (yet!). We'd like to think that last year was the aberration in an upward trend, but who knows.

Fact is that we are BOTH looking up at the Phillies, especially if they shore up the pen.

[wilson]

Not sure the past tense is warranted (yet!). We'd like to think that last year was the aberration in an upward trend, but who knows.

Fact is that we are BOTH looking up at the Phillies, especially if they shore up the pen.

Last year was but a mere hiccup, a la 1993. The fillies will always be the fillies.

[Lavabe]

Mike Hampton is injured again:
http://www.ajc.com/sports/content/sports/braves/stories/2007/11/26/braves_1127.html

Has there ever been a more snake-bitten pitcher on the Braves?
Cheers,
Lavabe

[wilson]

Has there ever been a more snake-bitten pitcher on the Braves?
Cheers,
Lavabe

Mark Wohlers?

[ugadevil]

Mike Hampton is injured again:
http://www.ajc.com/sports/content/sports/braves/stories/2007/11/26/braves_1127.html

Has there ever been a more snake-bitten pitcher on the Braves?
Cheers,
Lavabe

At what point do you just have to give up on a guy and wish him luck? Seems like this just isn't gonna' work.

[EarlJam]

At what point do you just have to give up on a guy and wish him luck? Seems like this just isn't gonna' work.

I say right now. Has he been getting paid all this time? I'm beginning to think he's doing all this on purpose. He's "punking" the Braves!

-EarlJam

[Channing]

At what point do you just have to give up on a guy and wish him luck? Seems like this just isn't gonna' work.

as soon as he isnt owed any more guaranteed money. As long as we have to pay him, we might as well throw him out there and see if he can stay healthy.

To be optimistic - if he can stay healthy, he should have a live arm, given all the rest it has gotten the last few years.

[throatybeard]

Hampton's problem remind me of this from The Onion:

http://www.theonion.com/content/node/50033

[CMS2478]

Okay, the Braves have money to spend. Where do you spend it?

Well, when I look at the everyday lineup, I see three great young players:

C -- McCann (23 years old)
RF -- Francouer (23 years old)
SS -- Escobar (24 years old)

Add:
1B -- Teixeira (27 years old) ... although he's only under contract for one more year ... it might be worth spending some of that excess money to sign him long-term.

Also:
3B -- Chipper Jones ... okay, he's aging (35) and he gets hurt a lot (134 games this year/ 600 ABs). But he was close to MVP quality -- his 1.029 OPS was the best in the NL.

That's five everyday positions that are locked up. That leaves:
2B -- Kelly Johnson (25) is close to a sure thing. Not a bad leadoff hitter or defender. And he could still get better. Also, Martin Prado has been touted as a future star for so long, it's easy to forget he's just 23 years old. I'd be comfortable letting Johnson and Prado play this spot -- plus Pete Orr is just a journeyman but he's a solid journeyman.
LF -- The Braves got a good season from Willie Harris and Matt Diaz as a platoon at this spot, but both are 29 and have never been anywhere near this good before. I wouldn't mind keeping Diaz as a fourth outfielder, but I think the Braves need an upgrade here.
CF -- The big question mark. I see mention of the Anderson kid picked up in the Villereal trade. He's got a shot. But don't forget Gorkys Hernandez, one of the two pickups from Detroit, in the Renteria trade. He's an even better long-term prospect, although he might be a year away (he just turns 20 this winter). Plus, there's a kid Jordan Schafer (a 2005 draft pick) who is rated even higher by Baseball America than Anderson or Hernandez.

I'm comfortable letting the kids fight it out for the CF job. The only position I'm not sold on is LF ... although the Harris/Diaz platoon isn't a black hole or anything.

No, the real money has to go to the pitching staff. Okay, what's the foundation:
-- Hudson and Smoltz have to be counted on to take two spots in the rotation. I'm holding my breath on Smoltz since he is 40 years old, but he was a stud last year, so I'm hoping he has another strong year or two. But you can't overwork him.
-- The kid Jair Jurrigans that came in the Renteria deal is supposed to be ready to be a starter. He's 22 and throws 93 MPH. They gave up an all-star SS ... they think this kid is ready.
-- I'm not sure I'd keep any of last year's duds, not in the rotation. Well, that's not fair. Davies (23) and James (25) are both young enough to get better. And Jo-Jo Reyes is a lefty with a live arm -- plus he's just 22 years old.
I'd put him in the pen with Mike Gonzales (who was great before he got hurt), Peter Moylan (a solid middle-relief guy) and maybe Joey Devine -- he was a top draft pick who bombed in his first stint with the Braves straight out of college, but came back from the minors late last season and was pretty strong in a brief showing (1.08 ERA in 10 appearances). He's still just 23 years old.

I'd LOVE to throw a healthy Mike Hampton in that mix. As for Glavine, I think the question is not so much his salary, but whether you can get him for one year or not. If you can get him for one year at $8 or even $10 million, it wouldn't be the worst deal in the world.

I guess if I were the Braves GM and had some money to spend, I'd order my priorities this way:

(1) Re-sign Teixeira
(2) Add a solid starting pitcher
(3) Add a solid closer
(4) Add a solid setup man
(5) Add a slugging LFer
(6) Maybe upgrade my backup catcher (Corky Miller is not much of a fill-in ... not sure how ready Brandon Pena is to play).

The Braves won 84 games last season -- nobody in the NFL won more than 90. They're not that far from contention.

I wouldn't count on Hampton AT ALL. According to the Braves website he is hurt again with an apparent hamstring injury. I really think it is time we give up on him and move on. I have said this for the past three years and I am starting to get tired of hearing myself say it. :eek:

[Matches]

The Braves might as well keep Hampton around. They've got to pay him anyway, and you can bet no one but no one is interested in trading for him. Just don't expect anything from him, and if he gives anything it'll be gravy.

Looks like the rotation will be Smoltz, Hudson, Glavine, and some combination of James, Reyes, Jurgens, and Bennett. Now we've got to get the bullpen straight. Looks like Soriano will close, likely that Moylan will be the top setup guy, but we've gotta get a lefty down there. Hopefully they can meet Mahay's asking price.

As for the lineup, I'd just as soon see Anderson or Lillibridge out there in April - see what they can do. If they're not ready, either promote Jordan Schaffer midseason or see if someone can be acquired at the deadline. The lineup looks good even if we get nothing out of CF - I'm not looking to spend 9-10 mil for a stopgap.

[ugadevil]

Looks like the rotation will be Smoltz, Hudson, Glavine, and some combination of James, Reyes, Jurgens, and Bennett. Now we've got to get the bullpen straight. Looks like Soriano will close, likely that Moylan will be the top setup guy, but we've gotta get a lefty down there. Hopefully they can meet Mahay's asking price.


What about Mike Gonzalez? He still going to be recovering from his injury? He looked strong this past season until he got hurt.

[Matches]

Gonzales will hopefully be back around June or July. If he's back to full strength he is obviously a strong option. But we just don't know what we're going to get at this point. There's got to be another strong lefty in the pen.

[Lavabe]

Javy Lopez just signed a minor league contract with Atlanta. He'll probably be a back-up.
Cheers,
Lavabe

[EarlJam]

Javy Lopez just signed a minor league contract with Atlanta. He'll probably be a back-up.
Cheers,
Lavabe

Wow, cool?

Heck, that makes Glavine and Lopez. Why not bring back Otis Nixon, Mark Wohlers and Mark Lemke while we're at it!?

-Earl "Tomahawk" Jam

[Channing]

Wow, cool?

Heck, that makes Glavine and Lopez. Why not bring back Otis Nixon, Mark Wohlers and Mark Lemke while we're at it!?

-Earl "Tomahawk" Jam

Lopez was a name I was very surprised not to see in the Mitchell report. Glad it wasnt there though!

[ugadevil]

Lopez was a name I was very surprised not to see in the Mitchell report. Glad it wasnt there though!

Completely agree. Remember the year Javy hit like 40 home runs and seemed like he'd bulked up 20 lbs. I thought for sure he'd have been mentioned because of that season.

[Matches]

Mitchell didn't have a source in the Braves' clubhouse. I'd posit Lopez's omission from the list is entirely down to that. Clearly something funky was going on during Javy's ridiculous 2003 season.

[YmoBeThere]

Was 2003 also a contract year for Javy? 2004 was for Adrian Beltre of the Dodgers who more than doubled his previous home run total (23 to 48) and bested his career BA by 71 points. All in the year he was due to get a big contract. Thankfully, the Mariners paid it and not the Dodgers.

[JasonEvans]

Was 2003 also a contract year for Javy? 2004 was for Adrian Beltre of the Dodgers who more than doubled his previous home run total (23 to 48) and bested his career BA by 71 points. All in the year he was due to get a big contract. Thankfully, the Mariners paid it and not the Dodgers.

2003 was a contract year for Javy. After (allegedly) juicing up and hitting 43 homers (he'd hit 11 the year before) he signed a 3-year, $23 million deal. Similarly, Adrian Beltre went from hitting 23 homers to hitting 48 in his contract year in 2004. He promptly signed a 5-year, $65 million deal.

If you were looking at either struggling to keep your job versus making $10+ million a year, wouldn't you take some HGH or steroids?

--Jason

[Lavabe]

2003 was a contract year for Javy. After (allegedly) juicing up and hitting 43 homers (he'd hit 11 the year before) he signed a 3-year, $23 million deal. Similarly, Adrian Beltre went from hitting 23 homers to hitting 48 in his contract year in 2004. He promptly signed a 5-year, $65 million deal.

If you were looking at either struggling to keep your job versus making $10+ million a year, wouldn't you take some HGH or steroids?

--Jason

Perhaps Andruw should have pulled that stunt last year in his contract year, eh? ;)

Cheers,
Lavabe

[ugadevil]

Perhaps Andruw should have pulled that stunt last year in his contract year, eh? ;)


Sadly, HGH or steroids probably still wouldn't help someone who doesn't have enough balance in his swing to actually make contact with the ball. Maybe steroids would have kept him from falling down after he struck out.

[devildeac]

Sadly, HGH or steroids probably still wouldn't help someone who doesn't have enough balance in his swing to actually make contact with the ball. Maybe steroids would have kept him from falling down after he struck out.

Sad, but true-and also ROTFLMAO funny.

[YmoBeThere]

Rumor has Mark Kotsay going to the Braves to play centerfield...

[wilson]

Rumor has Mark Kotsay going to the Braves to play centerfield...

in exchange for former NC State pitcher Joey Devine. Oakland will be picking up all but $2 million of Kotsay's $7 million+ price tag.

[365Duke]

including Tex:D

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3202470

[Jim3k]

As the lone A's fan on the Board, I am sorry to see Mark leave. When healthy he's a great centerfielder. His bat's no so bad, either. But he's the current major league leader in OF assists.

Two years ago we had a 'who is the best centerfielder' thread. Evans was toouting Andruw Jones and was having trouble believing my assertion that Kotsay should have been in the conversation.

Now, in delicious irony, Evans and the Braves crowd will get to see in person what I saw. I only hope he has recovered well from his back surgery and that he has a good year. One thing I could never make clear about him: Kotsay is good because he has radar concerning where the ball is going and is extremely fast to the spots. He gets there and makes it look as if it was not a troublesome ball. So he rarely makes highlight plays ere he snatches the ball after a long run, dive, leap -- whatever. He just gets there and is usually in a position to throw when he does.

Torii Hunter is still the best. But the Braves will not miss Andruw. Kotsay will do a better job (fingers crossed for health) in the field. He doesn't have offensive Jones's power, but he gets on base very well.

I wish him well in Atlanta.

Now, if we can only find some talent in the all the minor league bodies Billy Beane has acquired. Devine seems to be a reasonable bet. But there are eight or nine others. It would be nice if most panned out somehow.

[Olympic Fan]

Torii Hunter is still the best. But the Braves will not miss Andruw. Kotsay will do a better job (fingers crossed for health) in the field. He doesn't have offensive Jones's power, but he gets on base very well.

Jim, I hope you are right, but I don't see it.

To begin with, Jones is two years younger than Kotsay and has been a significantly better player (with 700 more games in CF). Even discouting last year for Kotsay when he was hurt and assuming a full recovery ...

-- Kotsay will do a better job in the field? His career range factor in center field is lower than Jones' and is only .22 above the league average -- Jones is .51 above the league average. In his last two healthy years, Kotsay was BELOW the league average in range factor; Jones has been above -- well-above -- every year of his career.

Are the managers that vote on gold gloves so deluded that they've voted Jones 10 gold gloves and never voted Kotsay even a single one (and you can't blame it on Hunter -- the gold glove OF vote is not by position ... they often vote two or even three CFs)?

I'd love to think you're right, but there's no evidence that Kotsay is in Jones' class as a defensive CFer.

That great arm has produced 65 assists in 913 games in centerfield -- one every 14.0 games. I hardly think that has a huge impact when compared to Jones rate of one assist every 16.2 games. Counter that with Kotsay's slightly higher error rate (one every 33.8 games; Jones is at one every 44.4 games).

-- Also, the comment that Kotsay "doesn't have Jones power, but he gets on base very well" ... very well compared to what?

His career OBP is a very mediocre .337 -- five points below Jones' .342. The last three years he's had anemic OBP of .325, .332 and .279 ... without power! He slugs .415.

His career OPS is .752 (below the league average of .756 for his career).

He turned 32 years old last month. He's coming off back surgery. If he matches his career OPS he'll have a lower OPS than any regular in the Braves' lineup last year, other than Jones.

I realize he's a short-term fill-in until one of the three great CF prospects in the system are ready to take over. But I hate giving up a young pitching prospect (1.08 ERA at age 23 in 10 late-season appearances) to get such a mediocrity.

[Jim3k]

Jim, I hope you are right, but I don't see it.


-- Kotsay will do a better job in the field? His career range factor in center field is lower than Jones' and is only .22 above the league average -- Jones is .51 above the league average. In his last two healthy years, Kotsay was BELOW the league average in range factor; Jones has been above -- well-above -- every year of his career.

First of all, range factor is one of those efforts at creating a statistical metric that is pretty unscientific. Relying on that to compare center fielders who play in different parks is really problematical; it is essentially subjective. What you need to do is look at Ron Washington's assessment of the best AL outfielders in 2006, when the A's were plugging him as an all-star. If Ron says that (and the only other person he's said that about is Eric Chavez), I think one should listen. The second half of that year went bad as Kotsay's back began to act up. It was Washington who essentially put Kotsay in center when the A's had three center fielders in the outfield that year -- Jay Payton and Milton Bradley were the other two. Payton's range factor is supposedly higher than Kotsay's, IIRC. Both of them usually deferred to Kotsay on flies to the alley.




I'd love to think you're right, but there's no evidence that Kotsay is in Jones' class as a defensive CFer.



I am hardly knocking Jones when I say Kotsay will fill in quite well defensively, although there were some stats I cited a couple of years ago that showed Jones's defensive reputation was not as highly deserved as the Atlanta fans thought; but...I'd never be able to find them now. He's a very good outfielder. So is Kotsay.

All I can really say, is wait and see. If he's not healthy, neither of our opinions will be worth much. If healthy, he will give the lie to the range factor metric.