DBR Survival Football discussion

[JasonEvans]

Ok, time for the annual DBR Survivor Football Pool.

As usual, we will run this through Yahoo's fantasy site (http://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/survival). Our group is named DBR (http://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/survival/15663). Our group ID # is 15663 and the password to get into it is "Duke." I think Yahoo limits you to 50 people per group so sign up now or you may be left out in the cold.

For those of you who do know how Survival Football works, you pick one NFL team to win its game each week. No point spreads, just win and move on. It may sound easy but you cannot pick the same team twice in the season. It takes some pretty darn good picking to last more than about 5 or 6 weeks.

Some mega-sports-genius won the pool last year. I forget who it was, but we should all bow down to his intellectual superiority. Anyone recall who was victorious?

--Jason "hurry up and sign up-- and let the trash talking begin!" Evans

[sue71]

I'm Flat Stanley.

[JasonEvans]

I'm Flat Stanley.

Thanks Sue, that reminds me.

Everyone is required to post in this thread identifying the name of their team. That way we can keep track of who is who when we taunt each other.

And, oh my, will there be taunting!!

--Jason "I am Jason's Repeat Champs... as if ya did not know" Evans

[JasonEvans]

As folks post their name or PM/email me with their team name, I will revise this post to include the names and IDs of the players.

So far, we have...


Jason Evans - Jason's Repeat Champs
Sue71 - Flat Stanley
Blazindw - Blazin runs this town 2Nite
InSpades - Seventeen in a row
YmoBeThere - YmoBethere #1
DaveKay1971 - Dave Kay
mkirsh - Winner Winner Chicken Dinner
toughbuff1 - Charm City Cripplers
Clipsfan - New Kid
A Tex Devil - A Tex Devil
cato - Blackout Blues
Spencer's Daddy - I'mNotGregKoubek (awesome name, my old friend)


--Jason "step up people..." Evans

[blazindw]

?????? - Blazin runs this town 2Nite (I'm betting this is Blazindw)

Correct ;-) Hoping to improve on my performance from last year (stupid pick put me out among the Top 10 I think)...I will be there in the end!

[YmoBeThere]

YmoBeThere! #1 is me.

[davekay1971]

I'm in under the enigmatic name of "Dave Kay"

[mkirsh]

I'm Winner Winner Chicken Dinner, mainly because I intend to win this year

[InSpades]

^ Seventeen In a Row

[Clipsfan]

I'm the New Kid who is going to win this thing. What sport is this again?

[toughbuff1]

I'm the Charm City Cripplers

[A-Tex Devil]

A-Tex Devil = A-Tex Devil

[cato]

I am cato
I be Blackout Blues

[Spencer's Daddy]

I'mNotGregKoubek is my name and I approved this message.

[JasonEvans]

My 12-year-old son Drew really wants to do this and seeing as we don't have all that many entrants so far, I am going to let him sign up.

--Jason "hopefully he will think of a clever team name ;) " Evans

[davekay1971]

My 12-year-old son Drew really wants to do this and seeing as we don't have all that many entrants so far, I am going to let him sign up.

--Jason "hopefully he will think of a clever team name ;) " Evans

That's fine right...unless, of course, Drew kicks my rear...

[Bostondevil]

I am FalconsWin10 to remind everyone that it was me, ME!, who predicted 10 wins for the Falcons in '08. Jason may have won the survivor pool but I look at my achievement as a truer indication of genius. (Yeah, yeah, I know they won 11, but nobody else predicted more than 4.)

[JasonEvans]

I am FalconsWin10 to remind everyone that it was me, ME!, who predicted 10 wins for the Falcons in '08. Jason may have won the survivor pool but I look at my achievement as a truer indication of genius. (Yeah, yeah, I know they won 11, but nobody else predicted more than 4.)

Yup, that was truly impressive and worth relishing for years to come. Props! I am dying to see your win total prediction for this year.

As an aside, I just signed my 12 and 10 year olds up.

Drew picks are named "My Dad's Doom"
Alec is "Doofenshmirtz Evil Incorporated" which is apparently the name of the company run by the bad guy on the TV show called Phineas and Ferb (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doofenshmirtz_Evil_Incorporated).

--Jason "if they beat me, it will not be a pretty scene around my household" Evans

[Bob Green]

I've joined the group with the goal of surviving past week 1.

[YmoBeThere]

I've joined the group with the goal of surviving past week 1.

Aim High! (Oh, wrong branch of service)

[Bostondevil]

The first week is the hardest, IMHO. Getting past the first week always produces a huge sigh of relief. It took me three tries before I made it past the first week when I first started doing these kinds of pools.

[DukieInKansas]

I have signed up - I bet everyone can figure out which one is me. (DukieInKansas = DukieInKansas) Let's hope I don't forget any of those stupid Thursday Night games this year. Getting knocked out because you didn't pick is truly embarrassing. :o

[YmoBeThere]

Hmmm...you aren't going against the Lions for the first game?

[Bostondevil]

I am. It's at New Orleans. Although I do expect them to win at least one this year.

[Dukerati]

I just joined (Team Name: Ivory Tower of Power) and I suspect if New Orleans falls, they are taking at least half of us with them.

[Bostondevil]

Go Saints! I'd hate to lose me plus half of the rest of you first week.

[InSpades]

This is why Survivor Football is great... I get to root for the Lions this weekend! Nothing like half the pool putting their hopes on a team that finished LAST in their division the previous year!

[Bostondevil]

You talking about the Saints or the Lions?

[Bostondevil]

What game do you think is a safer bet? Baltimore at home against Kansas City might be a good pick. What else is more attractive than New Orleans over Detroit? San Diego at Oakland? New England over Buffalo? Minnesota at Cleveland? Let's face it, New Orleans doesn't have to be a great team to beat Detroit. Yes, we could all be wrong, that's the danger of the first week. I do think Detroit will be a better team this, they couldn't be any worse, but I don't think they'll be better than New Orleans, in New Orleans, for the home opener. I just don't.

[InSpades]

You talking about the Saints or the Lions?

Both of them! The Saints finished last in their division last year at 8-8.

I'm taking Baltimore which I think is a safer bet but that is the beauty of Survivor Football. You pick a huge favorite pretty much every week and yet by the end of like week 8 or so everyone is out. The Saints are certainly much much better than the Lions but anything can happen and I will be rooting for just that :). The early weeks are definitely the hardest because you have so little to go on.

[Bostondevil]

OK, so 50% of the participants are picking New Orleans and another 40% are going with Baltimore. Still don't see why you're ragging on the folks who went with New Orleans. 8-8 is a whole lot better than 0-16. New Orleans had 8 more wins than Detroit last year, Baltimore had 9 more than KC. New Orleans scored 57 touchdowns last year, Detroit 29, Baltimore 42, and KC 35. As far as I can tell, none of those teams made any huge moves. Plus New Orleans played in the NFC South which was a darn fine division last year. 8-8 won the AFC West.

[Bostondevil]

First week is a crap shoot. Getting past the first week is luck, not skill, so best to go with a home team in a non-division game against a weaker opponent on paper, something both of us are doing. And no, I'm not rooting against you, I'm not scared of the competition, I'm only scared of talking myself out of a good pick.

[InSpades]

I didn't "rag" on anyone. Geez. I just pointed out a simple fact that New Orleans finished last in their division last year.

My real point was that Survivor Football adds a little more excitement to the NFL season because you get to root against the team other people picked (while also rooting for the team you picked).

[Bostondevil]

OK, sorry, I felt ragged on.

[2535Miles]

I am Noonan!
http://i25.photobucket.com/albums/c97/long1118/Danny_Noonan.jpg

[Dukerati]

I'm not sure if this thread is going to devolve into debating picks every week but it's a nice way to vent the ridiculous overload of information I receive from watching ESPN 3 hours per day:) The reason I went with the Saints over the Ravens are thus:

1) Baltimore is a ball-control team that pounds the ball and shortens the game. This means their victory margins, in general, are smaller and gives the other team more of a chance.
2) Baltimore is only two years removed from being a horrible team and the most appreciable changes they have made since then are a new rookie QB and a new head coach. Oh and their defense got older.
3) Baltimore's #1 strength is their defense and they lost their defensive coordinator and arguably their best linebacker. I'm assuming they will take a step back or at the very least, have an early adjustment period.
4) The Chiefs QB is much better than the Detroit Lions QB at this point and we all know that QB is the single most important position in the game.

This all being said, the NFL has way too much randomness for anyone to say anything with too much confidence. Still, as a Redskins fan, I wouldn't mind seeing the Ravens lose and take a few of you with them:) Good luck everyone (especially those picking the Saints).

[Bostondevil]

Thanks Dukerati. Go Saints!

And again, apologies to Spades. It's a message board, sometimes I misinterpret, but I felt like you were dissing everybody who picked the Saints. And the only one who gets to diss picks this year is Grand Poobah and 2008 Survivor Champion Jason Evans.

[JasonEvans]

Thanks Dukerati. Go Saints!

And again, apologies to Spades. It's a message board, sometimes I misinterpret, but I felt like you were dissing everybody who picked the Saints. And the only one who gets to diss picks this year is Grand Poobah and 2008 Survivor Champion Jason Evans.

Thanks for the props... and, as if you could not guess, I picked against the Lions this week so I will not be dissing anyone.

The Saints were a perfect pick because there are not going to be many other times you would want to pick them. They play another really bad teams, the Rams in week 9, but that game as well as games with Buffalo and Washington (who I think could both be pretty bad this year) are all on the road. So, here was a chance to pick Nawlins at home against a team they are waaay better than.

It may not work out, but I see it as a no brainer.

-Jason "looking ahead can play a big role-- there is a week coming up in a bit when you will wish you had been looking ahead" Evans

[Turk]

I'm in as the Little Gobblers. At the risk of mixing my barnyard metaphors, I decided to follow the herd for the first week.

[DukieInKansas]

I confess - I went with Baltimore. I have complete faith that my kansas city chefs can lose. It will be interesting to see how the QBs knee holds up. I imagine he will be playing in the brace this week.

[Spencer's Daddy]

My son (see my screen name) is in as "Collins Hill Eagle"

[mkirsh]

.They play another really bad teams, the Rams in week 9, but that game as well as games with Buffalo and Washington (who I think could both be pretty bad this year) are all on the road.

Generally a good survivor strategy is to pick one or two really bad teams and bet against them all year (if you picked against Detroit every time last year and didn't mess up your bye week, you won your survivor pool). 0-16 isn't likely to happen very often, but there are always some 4 win teams that are pretty safe on a weekly basis (until of course they play each other, there is always one or two weeks in survivor where it seems the good teams all play each other and the bad teams all play each other, those are not fun).

However, not to threadjack, but as a Skins fan I'm curious as to why you think they will be "pick against in survivor pool" bad. They were 8-8 last year (admittedly 2-6 down the stretch) with a first year head coach. They lost virtually nothing from that team, and added Haynesworth to a top 5 defense. Campbell and Zorn each have another year of working together, they still have Portis and the o-line is now healthy (the main reason for the collapse last year). I'm not saying they are super bowl contenders as they are still thin at o-line and receiver (and maybe corner if Carlos Rogers is really hurt), but the defense and Portis should keep them in a lot of games, and they have a very easy schedule outside of the NFC east. I think a bad season for them is 6-10 or 7-9, with a good season potentially getting to 10 wins. I think they'll be competative in most games as they will keep the score down, and not a team I'd want to bet against in survivor. Detroit, Oakland, Cleveland, NY Jets, Rams, and Niners I think are the best bets to be the 4 wins or less teams.

[Bostondevil]

My oldest son squeaked in under the wire as PatsFan.

[JasonEvans]

However, not to threadjack, but as a Skins fan I'm curious as to why you think they will be "pick against in survivor pool" bad. They were 8-8 last year (admittedly 2-6 down the stretch) with a first year head coach. They lost virtually nothing from that team, and added Haynesworth to a top 5 defense. Campbell and Zorn each have another year of working together, they still have Portis and the o-line is now healthy (the main reason for the collapse last year). I'm not saying they are super bowl contenders as they are still thin at o-line and receiver (and maybe corner if Carlos Rogers is really hurt), but the defense and Portis should keep them in a lot of games, and they have a very easy schedule outside of the NFC east. I think a bad season for them is 6-10 or 7-9, with a good season potentially getting to 10 wins. I think they'll be competative in most games as they will keep the score down, and not a team I'd want to bet against in survivor. Detroit, Oakland, Cleveland, NY Jets, Rams, and Niners I think are the best bets to be the 4 wins or less teams.

I was merely looking at other opportunities for picking the Saints. I was not saying the Redskins would be a good team to pick against. There are just not that many games on the Saints sched where I would feel ok picking them.

--Jason "I agree that the Skins look like about a .500 team -- picking against them at home would be foolish" Evans

[InSpades]

I follow the strategy of taking things "one game at a time" for the most part. Especially this early. I agree that if you are looking to go 17 and 0 (as my team name would suggest) that you would want to plan ahead and picking the Saints might be a better pick from that point of view. The other side of the coin is that if you don't feel comfortable picking the Saints in any other games this year, then how comfortable can you really feel about picking them in this one? I'd rather pick the best teams early and figure the rest out later. In the last survivor pool I was in (I think it was the DBR one 2 years ago) the winner was crowned in like week 8 or so.

As for picking against the Lions every week... you can't do that as they will play the same team more than once (also they have a bye). Plus I think the NFL record for losses in a row is like 26 and they are at 17. What are the odds that they break that record? You can however pick against them the 1st 6 weeks (then they have their bye). Week 8 they play the Rams and you can probably find a better game than that to pick.

[Bob Green]

With the Saints' victory over the Lions, I advance to Week 2 for the first time in DBR Survival Football. Now it is time to ride that momentum.

[blazindw]

I picked the Chargers, and Yahoo has already given me credit for the victory, even though they don't play till tomorrow night! LOLOL

[Bostondevil]

With the Saints' victory over the Lions, I advance to Week 2 for the first time in DBR Survival Football. Now it is time to ride that momentum.

Congratulations Bob!

[DukieInKansas]

I was watching the Tour of Missouri bike race live and didn't watch games today. When I heard a chefs score of 17-17 there was a brief moment of panic since I picked the Ravens today and I was worried about survivor football. There was a part of me happy for the chefs. Didn't have to worry - the chefs did as expected and I move on to next week.

[blazindw]

So, the Chargers decided to do all they could to make fools out of Yahoo, but in the end it was not enough and they squeaked their way to victory. Still alive!

[sue71]

Sue's PSA: Don't forget to make your pick this week. :D

[YmoBeThere]

All I have for internet at the moment is my cell. How many people got bumped?

[InSpades]

All I have for internet at the moment is my cell. How many people got bumped?

Just 2 I think. The people who had Green Bay. 2 of the top 4 most popular picks (over all yahoo survivor picks) lost this week. And another almost lost (Washington). I went with "whoever is playing Detroit" this week and it did not fail me :). Green Bay was 6-10 last year (and they play Detroit twice per year)... they had a lot of hype coming into the year but they are pretty hard to figure out. They beat Detroit twice and then some pretty good teams (Chicago, Minnesota, Indianapolis and Seattle). Yet somehow managed to lose the other 10.

[Bob Green]

I went with "whoever is playing Detroit" this week and it did not fail me :).

I also employed the "whoever is playing Detroit" strategy to advance to Week 3. However, next week the Lions host the Redskins so I'm going to jump off the Detroit will lose bandwagon and most likely select the NY Giants to defeat Tampa Bay.

[blazindw]

I was watching the end of the Bears/Steelers game on my computer and when the Bears won, I immediately thought I was out, as I originally picked the Steelers. I then checked and found out that I had changed my pick to Washington (why on earth did I pick them). I'm still in it.

This week, my beloved Lions take on the Skins at home. I live here in DC so of course I'll be somewhere taking it to Skins fans. However, I might just do the boldest thing ever and actually CHOOSE the LIONS to WIN! Only time will tell :)

[Bob Green]

However, I might just do the boldest thing ever and actually CHOOSE the LIONS to WIN! Only time will tell :)

One thing is for sure, if you pick the Lions to win and advance to Week 4, you will have earned some bragging rights.

[JasonEvans]

One thing is for sure, if you pick the Lions to win and advance to Week 4, you will have earned some bragging rights.

If you pick the Lions and they win, I will personally bestow upon you the massive prize I got last year when I won this thing ;)

-Jason "go for it... I dare ya!" Evans

[sue71]

Jason, shouldn't you update your location to include the flooding going on there?

[JasonEvans]

Jason, shouldn't you update your location to include the flooding going on there?

Yeah, and the sports teams are looking a significantly better than mediocre lately. One would have to say that the Hawks, Braves, and Falcons are all in the top third of the league in their sport -- which is not as easy to accomplish as one might think.

An update is due.

--Jason "also, I have my own rain story to tell... but it needs pictures. I'll post it soon" Evans

[sue71]

--Jason "also, I have my own rain story to tell... but it needs pictures. I'll post it soon" Evans

LOL @ your new location... I know I shouldn't but I did.

[toughbuff1]

Yeah, and the sports teams are looking a significantly better than mediocre lately. One would have to say that the Hawks, Braves, and Falcons are all in the top third of the league in their sport -- which is not as easy to accomplish as one might think.

An update is due.

--Jason "also, I have my own rain story to tell... but it needs pictures. I'll post it soon" Evans

All things being equal, I would think it happens (1/3)cubed or 3.7% of the time. Of course, all things aren't equal in pro sports.

[JasonEvans]

Back on topic...

Anyone have any thoughts on this week's survival pick?

I went with Nawlins and Washington the first two weeks. I may regret using Nawlins so early, but they did not look like the kind of team you'd want to hold onto at the time. I am sure there will be some Saints vs. Tampa week soon where I will be puling my hair out that I am not allowed to pick that game.

Anyway, this week it looks like a lot of folks are liking Baltimore at home over Cleveland. Hard to find anything wrong with that pick as Baltimore has looked very good and Cleveland seems to be really, really bad. My only hesitation is that there could be several other really good times to take Baltimore down the road.

So, what else is there to consider?

The Giants are playing Tampa. It is in Tampa but the Bucks are just awful and the Giants are studs. They should have hammered Dallas in Dallas last week but were awful in the Red Zone.

The Eagles host KC, which should be an easy pick except I hate picking teams with question marks at QB and the Eagles are a mess at QB until McNabb comes back.

Green Bay is at St, Louis and the Rams stink. That one is tempting even for a road game.

Dallas hosts Carolina and a lot of folks seem to like the Cowboys. But, I thought Carolina looked somewhat decent last week, at least on offense. I think the Cowboys may be overrated. Romo looked horrible last week and the running game really bailed him out.

I cannot do the "anyone versus Detroit plan" this week because I already took the Redskins. I could certainly see others being interested in that game though.

As an aside, WOW, how easy is Washington's early schedule!?!? They started with the Giants but then they play St Losers, Detroit, Tampa, Carolina, and Kansas City. Are you kidding me?!?! If they are not at least 4-2 coming out of that then they are a total fraud. Of course, the flip side is that they close with 6 out of 7 against teams that look like they will be serious playoff contenders. I could see Jim Zorn really being on the hot seat if Washington starts hot and then limps to the finish like last season.

http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2008/0807/nfl_g_zorn_campbell_580.jpg

Well, someone convince me what the best pick is this week. Lots of potential choices.

-Jason "I know where I am leaning..." Evans

[InSpades]

Funny that you mention "wasting" your early pick of the Saints. I took the Ravens in week 1 and I'm thinking I'd want them here instead. I think they are clearly the obvious pick but after that it gets more difficult.

As a Giants fan I would caution against picking them this week. They are certainly a better team than Tampa but there's a bunch of things going against them this week that would scare me off of the game. 1st, it is a road game (though the Giants are a really good road team). 2nd it's kind of a trap game... after playing the Redskins and the Cowboys there is bound to be a letdown. Lastly they have a bunch of injuries on defense. I'm not sure how many if any of them will be back this week. I also have a very different view of the Cowboys game... yes the Giants could have had a couple more touchdowns if their redzone offense was better but it's been pretty bad consistently. Instead I look at it like if Dallas didn't have so many bad turnovers the Giants would have definitely lost (and almost did anyway).

Anyway... the teams I'm looking at to pick are the Eagles and the Cowboys. Leaning towards the Eagles because they have an easier opponent. However them possibly missing McNabb and Westbrook is scary. I'm also not confident in picking the Redskins. Seems like a tough week which is why if I had the Ravens to pick I'd happily take them. Can't see them possibly losing with their strong defense and solid running game.

[toughbuff1]

I'm going with Baltimore here, because of the Eagles QB issues. Otherwise it would be the Eagles.

[mkirsh]

Back on topic...

My only hesitation is that there could be several other really good times to take Baltimore down the road.



I like Baltimore this week. I think trying to save teams in survivor is dangerous because 1) you may never get there and 2) who is a "good" team changes so much during the course of a season.


Back on topic...

I could see Jim Zorn really being on the hot seat if Washington starts hot and then limps to the finish like last season.



Zorn is already on the hot seat. Sports radio has been killing him and Campbell all week here, and Redskins legend Sonny Jurgenson even got into it with Zorn about play-calling in an interview. I expect Zorn to last the season, but there are enough big names out there between Cowher, Shanahan, and Holmgren that Synder is bound to get one of them to accept the the truck of money he will deliver to their house.

[blazindw]

I took the dare...I'm going with my DETROIT LIONS to end the streak against the Skins. Yes, my cojones are that large. :)

Lions, don't fail me now!!

[JasonEvans]

I took the dare...I'm going with my DETROIT LIONS to end the streak against the Skins. Yes, my cojones are that large. :)

Lions, don't fail me now!!

Really?!?!?! You are awesome!!!

Folks should post in this thread with things they will do to honor the genius that is blazindw if the Lions win. I will change my sig something that suitably honors blazin for as long as he remains in the Survivor pool.

Seeing as I post a little bit, I figure a lot of folks will therefore see how awesome Blazindw's pick was ;)

--Jason "...a little bit..." Evans

[davekay1971]

Going with Baltimore home against Cleveland. Baltimore look solid, and Cleveland is, well, Cleveland. Almost jumped on Philly over KC then saw that McNabb AND Westbrook will probably be out :eek:

[Bob Green]

I took the dare...I'm going with my DETROIT LIONS to end the streak against the Skins. Yes, my cojones are that large. :)

Lions, don't fail me now!!

Congratulations! Lions break a 19 game losing streak and blazindw advances to Week 4. :)

[blazindw]

Congratulations! Lions break a 19 game losing streak and blazindw advances to Week 4. :)

LIONS WIN! LIONS WIN! LIONS WIN! I can't believe it. And against the Skins, of all teams! Best BELIEVE my Lions cap will be on my head at full tilt around the District this week!

[Bostondevil]

In other news, as Bostondevil is trying very hard to miss her deadline for having a first draft of her play ready, she's started using her boring, ill-used blog to pick football games. Here it is if you care to have a look. And no, really, I don't have enough to do. http://dec21cafe.blogspot.com/

[JasonEvans]

I hope everyone appreciates my new sig. He earned it!

--Jason "is it too big? I can make it smaller" Evans

[DukieInKansas]

I hope everyone appreciates my new sig. He earned it!

--Jason "is it too big? I can make it smaller" Evans

Love it, Jason. Congratulations, Blazindw!

[blazindw]

Love it, Jason. Congratulations, Blazindw!


I hope everyone appreciates my new sig. He earned it!

--Jason "is it too big? I can make it smaller" Evans

Not too big at all, Jason. Love it :). Thanks for the congrats, y'all! As weezie can also tell you, Detroiters everywhere are walking a bit taller today, with more bounce in their step. That burden is off our back, and it feels great. I wore my Lions cap to work with pride, and I hope it's the start of more prideful Sundays.

[DukieInKansas]

I'm totally confused. I could have sworn I picked the Cowboys over Carolina but the site shows I picked San Diego over Miami. Guess I won't complain as I survive for another week.

[2535Miles]

I'm totally confused. I could have sworn I picked the Cowboys over Carolina but the site shows I picked San Diego over Miami. Guess I won't complain as I survive for another week.
No harm, no foul. Be thankful you got rid of that San Diego pick early. :D

[InSpades]

Seems like a very easy week this week. Multiple games w/ about a 10 point spread. Much easier than last week. Chicago? Giants? Indy? San Fran? Houston? Cincy? The Redskins are even big favorites but I wouldn't bet on that one :).

[Bob Green]

I'm going with the 49ers over the St. Louis Rams. The other intriguing pick was Cincy over the Browns, but I decided to go with the 49ers as they are playing at home. I'm a little concerned with my pick due to Frank Gore being injured.

[davekay1971]

I'm waffling between picking Chicago (who I don't completely trust...but I can't imagine the Lions winning two in a row) or San Fran (who I also don't completely trust, particularly with Gore injured). I think I'll stick with Chicago, simply because I think I can rely on the Lions to fall flat on their faces after a win. I continue to hold off on picking the NYG and Indy, waiting for weeks where there are no other seemingly clear choices, before I use those aces.

[InSpades]

I have similiar thoughts (particularly not picking the Giants here because there are so many other good choices). I think I'm going Chicago... Detroit might be without their QB and their RB depending on how their injuries go. Combine that with the odds of them winning 2 in a row after losing 19 in a row... I think it's a pretty safe pick. Like I said though, there are a lot of good picks this week. I could see taking Cincinatti if you wanted to take a little chance and potentially not use up a better team.

[JasonEvans]

I too went with Chicago. No way I am gonna use the Giants or Indy on a week where there are a lot of other good choices. The thing that scares me about Cincy is that it is a road game. I try to never pick a team on the road when I can.

San Fran is at home and if Gore was playing, I would probably take them. I don't see many other opportunities to take them until much later in the season. If I make it that far, in week 16 when San Fran at home with Detroit I'll feel like a genius ;)

--Jason "I actually think Detroit may make this a close game-- they are more confident now than they have been in many months" Evans

[sue71]

I took the Giants. I'm a lifelong Giants fan. Therefore, I know that the likelihood of them tripping over a "gimme" game increases significantly as the season goes on. So while some may see it as wasting a pick early on, I don't trust them down the stretch.

[mkirsh]

Going with the Giants. Sticking with my strategy of picking the best chance to win each week and worrying about next week if I get there.

[DukieInKansas]

I took the Giants. I'm a lifelong Giants fan. Therefore, I know that the likelihood of them tripping over a "gimme" game increases significantly as the season goes on. So while some may see it as wasting a pick early on, I don't trust them down the stretch.

I'm probably going to go with the Giants, also. A small part of me thinks the chefs can finally get a win but the sane voice in my head says - not really.

[blazindw]

Well, since I've already picked the Lions (yep, had to get it in there one more time ;)), this week I'm going to go with a choice that is far less safe. I'm gonna go with the G-Men over KC.

[JasonEvans]

It is just ridiculous how many of us are still alive. We have lost only 3 out of 27 entries after 4 weeks of picking. That is quite impressive.

Then again, it has been a season without any truly shocking upsets so far. If you look at the entire Yahoo Survival pool, there are still 150,000 people still alive. Week one saw 94.23% of players survive. Week two was the worst but saw 72.86% of pickers got it right. Week three was a 92.99% correct rate. This past week was the best yet, 98.16% of players survived. A little math tells me that 62.66% of players who started this thing on Yahoo are still alive. In our group the percentage is 88.88%, so we are well above average in our Survival knowledge.

A simple reality is becoming clear to me-- there are several really, really bad teams in the NFL and that makes it unusually easy to pick games. Tampa, St Louis, KC, and Oakland all suck a lot. Detroit and Cleveland are not much better.

As for this week, by not taking the Giants last week, it allows me to take them this week as they host the Raiders. Other attractive games include Philly hosting Tampa and then three road teams-- Minnesota at St Lou, Dallas at KC, and Pitt at Detroit. I almost never pick a road team if I can avoid it so I am thinking this may be the week to use my Giants pick.

I am somewhat nervous that Eli's bum foot may get worse. If the Giants were playing a team that actually had a tiny bit of potential, like maybe Detroit, I might be worried. It is also worth noting that the Giants schedule moving forward is full of tougher games. NAwlins, Arizona, Philly, San Diego, Atlanta, Denver, Dallas... I doubt I would want to pick the Giants in any of those games.

So, NY it is.

--Jason "It would really be fun if a lot of us made it to week 8 or 10 and the picks got to be really hard" Evans

[Bob Green]

A simple reality is becoming clear to me-- there are several really, really bad teams in the NFL and that makes it unusually easy to pick games. Tampa, St Louis, KC, and Oakland all suck a lot. Detroit and Cleveland are not much better.

You listed six lousy teams and one of them wasn't Buffalo who also looks bad so far. I'm going with the Eagles this week.

[davekay1971]

My first time doing survival football, so a question for the veterans. I have been only picking home favorites (this week I'm taking Philly over Tampa Bay...still saving the Giants). Any thought about whether taking a clear road favorite (ie: Minnesota over St. Louis or Pitt over Oakland this week) is any riskier than taking a clear home favorite?

[JasonEvans]

My first time doing survival football, so a question for the veterans. I have been only picking home favorites (this week I'm taking Philly over Tampa Bay...still saving the Giants). Any thought about whether taking a clear road favorite (ie: Minnesota over St. Louis or Pitt over Oakland this week) is any riskier than taking a clear home favorite?

It is often thought that a team is more likely to pull off an upset at home than on the road. This is not to say that stunning road upsets do not happen all the time, but folks who watch a lot of sports think that home upsets are more likely.

As I have mentioned, I tend to pick home teams whenever possible.

Again, this year has been extraordinarily easy to pick winners. I am not sure why, but we are yet to have a really stunning upset. The closest thing that qualifies is Detroit ending their losing streak a couple weeks ago... and that wasn't that huge an upset as our resident picking genius Blazindw predicted it.

--Jason "we'll get a stunner or two in the next couple weeks-- I bet half of us are gone by week 8" Evans

[blazindw]

Yea, it's always the stunner that clears out the league. I forgot which one it was last year that gutted half the people playing, but it was one that left you scratching your head in bewilderment.

[mkirsh]

Going with Philly this week. Feeling very nervous about it, as this is the point of the season where I don't love picking against teams without a win. Already used the Giants, but might not have picked them anyway as they are pretty banged up and if Eli doesn't go I would be very nervous. Other popular picks are Pittsburgh and Dallas but don't love the way either team is playing, maybe Minnesota but I think they are due for a let-down game (and also 4-0 vs 0-4 makes me nervous, St. Louis has a lot more to gain than Minny has to lose). Already picked Baltimore but don't know if I really think they are 8.5 favorites over Cinci, so I probably stay away from that game even if it were available. So by process of elimination I'm talking myself into Philly, but not really happy about it.

Last year the big upset that knocked me out was my Redskins losing to the Rams in week 6 - double whammy of home team and losing survivor in the same week.

[Bostondevil]

I for one am glad I picked Washington in the second week. They squeaked by and now I can't talk myself into a Washington pick again. Whew!

[JasonEvans]

I for one am glad I picked Washington in the second week. They squeaked by and now I can't talk myself into a Washington pick again. Whew!

A-freaking-men! Looking back, that was one insane pick. I would probably pick Detroit if I had to pick that game again at this point.

-Jason "if Zorn keeps his job for the rest of the season, I'll be surprised" Evans

[Bostondevil]

Although, Jason, I'll have you know, I'm a tiny bit miffed that I didn't get a genius sign last year, it was the only thing I asked for when I won the Falcons prediction pool. :(

[JasonEvans]

Although, Jason, I'll have you know, I'm a tiny bit miffed that I didn't get a genius sign last year, it was the only thing I asked for when I won the Falcons prediction pool. :(

When/if Blazin ever loses in the Survivor Pool, I will create a new sig that will praise your Lost recaps, how about that? I'll keep it up for a while.

--Jason "your pick of 10 wins was so insane last year, I did not even bother to think of some way of honoring it ;) " Evans

[Bostondevil]

I said it then, I'll say it again, I knew Matt Ryan was a stud. But he can only be a surprise stud one season. I still think the Falcons will win a playoff spot with a wild card, but the Saints are taking the NFC South this year.

[Bob Green]

It appears everyone has survived Week 5 as the Eagles, Giants, Steelers, and Vikings have all won their game.

[JasonEvans]

It appears everyone has survived Week 5 as the Eagles, Giants, Steelers, and Vikings have all won their game.

It is crazy how many of us are still alive!

-Jason

[Turk]

There are a handful of very good teams (as usual), but this year, it appears there are even more wonderfully craptastic teams. Plenty of options, so no one should get boxed in with their season's hopes riding on the outcome of a Buffalo - Cleveland suckfest. Egads, the lowlights of that one looked dreadful.

[Bostondevil]

Meanwhile, after 3 weeks of seeing how well I can do just picking winners (I'm not picking against the spread and I missed weeks 1 and 4), I am 29-18.

[Bob Green]

There are three 0-5 teams on the road in Week 6:

KC Chiefs @ Washington Redskins
STL Rams @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Tennessee Titans @ NE Patriots

As if those pickings are not sweet enough, the Buffalo Bills (1-4) are also on the road @ NY Jets (3-2). The Bills look pitiful as do the Cleveland Browns (1-4) who are on the road @ Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2). The Oakland Raiders (1-4) are at home against the Philadelphia Eagles (3-1).

Is this the week we start seeing some upsets? All those 0-5 teams are not going to end the season at 0-16. Against whom do they win? That's the $64,000 question.

Oh yeah, by the way, the Redskins, Jaguars, and Patriots all lost in Week 5.

[Bostondevil]

For the record, in my 'Can I pick 'em?' exercise, I had the Chiefs beating the Cowboys this week. So close! Argh. I also picked the Dolphins and the Panthers (and the Bills, so).

[Bostondevil]

Did I say I was 29-18 on the season? Turns out, I can't count. I'm actually 30-16.

[davekay1971]

You know...all of the winless teams are capable of winning this week. Washington and Jacksonville are very beatable teams, and Tennessee has enough defense to make things interesting at New England.

I'm going with Pittsburgh. They've been inconsistent, but they're at home and the Browns have a stench about them.

[InSpades]

6 games this week that have a point spread of 9 or more. I'm guessing that doesn't happen all that often. Going with the Eagles even though they are on the road. Mostly because looking at their schedule I don't think I'd want to pick them in any of the rest of their games and they are certainly good enough to be picked. Could maybe pick them against the Redskins but NFC East games are sometimes tough to call.

[JasonEvans]

It is just ridiculous how many of us are still alive. We have lost only 3 out of 27 entries after 4 weeks of picking. That is quite impressive.

Then again, it has been a season without any truly shocking upsets so far. If you look at the entire Yahoo Survival pool, there are still 150,000 people still alive. Week one saw 94.23% of players survive. Week two was the worst but saw 72.86% of pickers got it right. Week three was a 92.99% correct rate. This past week was the best yet, 98.16% of players survived. A little math tells me that 62.66% of players who started this thing on Yahoo are still alive. In our group the percentage is 88.88%, so we are well above average in our Survival knowledge.


We still have only lost 3 players out of 27, meaning we remain at 88.88% alive. The rest of Yahoo is down to 59% of players still around.

A big knockout is coming soon. There will be some major upset and 30-40% of the remaining players will get wiped out. It is going to happen...

...I just don't know when or who ;)

--Jason "I just pray it is not Philly this week!" Evans

[YmoBeThere]

It is going to happen...

...I just don't know when or who ;)

--Jason "I just pray it is not Philly this week!" Evans

We use the same logic in property casualty insurance.

[YmoBeThere]

Looks like there will be at least 11 of us out this week. A couple of no picks and a bunch of Philly selections. They must have been thinking about baseball this week.

[Bob Green]

I picked Pittsburgh this week so I survive again. It is time to start looking over next week's options. :) Survival Football is a lot of fun when you don't lose in Week 1 like I did the previous two seasons.

[blazindw]

I picked the Lions to beat the Skins...I actually picked the Jaguars to beat the Rams...initally. I changed it to the Eagles. Thank you Philly...thanks a lot.:mad:

[Clipsfan]

I picked the Lions to beat the Skins...I actually picked the Jaguars to beat the Rams...initally. I changed it to the Eagles. Thank you Philly...thanks a lot.:mad:

Made the Jags pick and didn't see any of the game so I just saw the score and I'm happy the Jags won. I would have been nervous watching. At least I beat the defending champ :)

[JasonEvans]

We still have only lost 3 players out of 27, meaning we remain at 88.88% alive. The rest of Yahoo is down to 59% of players still around.

A big knockout is coming soon. There will be some major upset and 30-40% of the remaining players will get wiped out. It is going to happen...

...I just don't know when or who ;)

--Jason "I just pray it is not Philly this week!" Evans

Stat jinx anyone?

I did it to myself. Ahhh well. I always, always say to avoid picking a team on the road. I can't believe I not only picked a road team but one that flew cross-freaking country for their game?!?!?! Arrrggghhh!!! How stupid!!!


I would have been nervous watching. At least I beat the defending champ :)

--Jason "The champ is dead-- long live the champ ;)" Evans

[JasonEvans]

I picked the Lions to beat the Skins...I actually picked the Jaguars to beat the Rams...initally. I changed it to the Eagles. Thank you Philly...thanks a lot.:mad:

I think this means I need a new sig ;)

[blazindw]

I think this means I need a new sig ;)

Dang, the end of my run :(

[davekay1971]

Not a lot of clear home favorites this week. Probably going to have to pick a road favorite...fortunately Indy and New England both look like safe picks!

[YmoBeThere]

Not a lot of clear home favorites this week. Probably going to have to pick a road favorite...fortunately Indy and New England both look like safe picks!

Will the Pats be playing in snow?

[Bob Green]

...fortunately Indy and New England both look like safe picks!

Surviving one week at a time is the key so even though I may regret my decision later in the season I am picking the Colts this week in order to have the best chance to play next week.

[Turk]

Don't forget, NE vs Tampa is in London - so that's really a road game for both teams. NE and Indy seem like the only obvious choices this week.

Seems like a craptastic week for good games (non-fantasy division). Only a couple caught my eye:

MIN at PIT - see if the Steelers can derail the Frarvrer Frarvre Frarvre train,

ARI at NYG - see how Giants bounce back after feasting on horrible teams then getting lit up by NO.

[Bostondevil]

I'm going with New England! Oh wait, I'm out. If I were in, I'd be going with New England. New streak!!!! I can play by myself if I want to.

[Bob Green]

Taking a look at the really horrible teams in action this week in order to decide on this week's pick:

1. Cleveland Browns (1-6) travel to Chicago to face the 3-3 Bears.
2. St. Louis Rams (0-7) travel to Detroit to face the 1-5 Lions.
3. Tennessee Titans (0-6) are at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars (3-3).
4. Oakland Raiders (2-5) travel to San Diego to face the 3-3 Chargers.
5. Carolina Panthers (2-4) travel to Arizona to face the 4-2 Cardinals.

Chicago, San Diego, and Arizona look like the best teams to pick this week. I've decided to go with the Chargers over the Raiders, but I'm a real Nervous Nellie as it was the Raiders who decimated the ranks of DBR Survival Football in Week 6 with their win over the Eagles. Can lightning strike twice?

I might change my mind and select the Cardinals, but changing your pick after your initial selection is always a bit dicey.

[Bostondevil]

I'm still alive in another pool where I will be picking Indy this week.

[cato]

Taking a look at the really horrible teams in action this week in order to decide on this week's pick:

1. Cleveland Browns (1-6) travel to Chicago to face the 3-3 Bears.
2. St. Louis Rams (0-7) travel to Detroit to face the 1-5 Lions.
3. Tennessee Titans (0-6) are at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars (3-3).
4. Oakland Raiders (2-5) travel to San Diego to face the 3-3 Chargers.
5. Carolina Panthers (2-4) travel to Arizona to face the 4-2 Cardinals.

Chicago, San Diego, and Arizona look like the best teams to pick this week. I've decided to go with the Chargers over the Raiders, but I'm a real Nervous Nellie as it was the Raiders who decimated the ranks of DBR Survival Football in Week 6 with their win over the Eagles. Can lightning strike twice?

I might change my mind and select the Cardinals, but changing your pick after your initial selection is always a bit dicey.

I'm going with the Bolts too, but mostly because this is the best opportunity to align my rooting interest and my survivor interest. If the Chargers lose, I will be so unhappy that I will hardly notice getting blown out of the DBR pool.

[DukieInKansas]

At least my chefs can't lose this weekend.


And, yes, after last week's performance, the once again lost the i in their name. :D

[JasonEvans]

My 10 year old son, who is still alive as Doofenschmirtz Evil Inc. in our pool, went with the Bears. He says that if he makes it through this week, he is sure he will win it all ;)

--Jason "my 12-year-old was eliminated along with me on the cursed Eagles" Evans

[davekay1971]

Both thinking they'll win, and a cheering interest. My wife and I cheer for Philip Rivers since my wife knew him when she was at State. Here's a little plug for both Philip and my wife (who is awesome).

They walked to class together her freshman year when he was already BMOC. This, of course, is my completely unbiased opinion :), but my wife is (and was in college) smoking hot. I asked if Mr. Athlete ever hit on her and she said, no, he was already married at that point and was a perfect gentleman. So, props to Rivers for that.

What always makes me laugh thinking of Rivers is that, at one point, when he asked my wife if she caught the game and whether she thought he played allright, she told him yes, she caught the game and, yes, he played fine, but that he needed to stop acting like a whiny b**** on the field. That's Mrs. Davekay1971 for you - don't ask her a question if you don't want a blunt, honest answer.

[Bob Green]

Eleven contestants remain alive as we advance to Week 9 of the NFL season. Interestingly, both of this week's eliminations were due to not submitting a pick. San Diego, Chicago, and New Orleans were the popular choices and all three won. The number of selection options is starting to tighten up. This contest could become very interesting in a hurry.

[davekay1971]

ATL at home over Washington seems like the best lock to me. Any thoughts?

[toughbuff1]

I went with ATL as well.

[Turk]

The other one I saw is Indy at home vs. Houston, if Indy is still an available choice. They almost got careless against SF last week, and they could be at risk of overlooking this week for upcoming games vs NE and Balt. Still, tempting to take the best team playing at home against a perennial loser / .500 wannabe.

I'm on the fence between ATL and IND right now.

[mkirsh]

Really don't like this week. Already used Indy and New Orleans, and can't violate my personal rule about picking the game involving my team (Skins), so that rules out Atlanta for me. Went with New England, but VERY scared of Miami. This is probably the week I go, but if the Redskins pull off the huge upset I'll be excited for the win plus it will weed out 70% of the survivor pool.

[Bob Green]

All 11 survivors survive this week. Indy, New Orleans, and Seattle made some people sweat before pulling out a victory.

[davekay1971]

Thinking about taking Miami at home over Tampa Bay this week, saving Minnesota for later. Also thinking that may be a really, really bad idea...

Can I count on Tampa Bay to have no chance of winning two games in a row? Or does Miami's coach, who seems pretty clueless, scare me enough to go with the safer Minny pick?

[Bostondevil]

Still alive in another, non-DBR pool. I went with Atlanta this week. I'm going with New Orleans next, I think.

[Bob Green]

Thinking about taking Miami at home over Tampa Bay this week, saving Minnesota for later. Also thinking that may be a really, really bad idea...

I like that Miami is playing at home and I believe they are a better football team than their record reflects. There are two intriguing road teams available: Denver Broncos at the Washington Redskins or Baltimore Ravens at the Cleveland Browns, but I hesitate to select a road team.

I've already used Minnesota, New Orleans, and Atlanta so their favorable matchups are not an option.

I'm going to have to think about this week's selection a bit more (hopefully I don't overthink it) but either Miami or Denver will be my pick. Baltimore is just too inconsistent.

[DukieInKansas]

Reminder - there is a game tonight. Picks need to be made by 7:20 CST. It looks like there is one person left that needs to make a pick.

[tecumseh]

The Cleveland Browns are consistent. They are consistenly awful they have only scored like 4 offensive touchdowns this year, one of their wins was a 6-3 win over the Bills.

I disagree with the Ravens being that inconsistent. They have lost some tough games at the end, NE, Minn, Cinnci first time, they very easily could have won.

If the Ravens lose this one their season is probably over they are still alive in the wild card race thought the division title is probably not doable. So they should be plenty motivated.

[Bob Green]

Washington 27 - Denver 17. It seems like it has been weeks since someone had a wrong pick.

[DukieInKansas]

Thank you, Miami. I thought it was over for many of us when I saw TB up with under 2 minutes - and they had the ball. Then I see the final and Miami has won. Thank you very much!

[Bob Green]

Thank you, Miami. I thought it was over for many of us when I saw TB up with under 2 minutes - and they had the ball. Then I see the final and Miami has won. Thank you very much!

I echo your thanks to the Dolphins. I had my Denver loses post drafted and ready to go but I had to wait for Miami to pull out the last second victory over TB before cheering the Denver defeat.

[sue71]

Washington 27 - Denver 17. It seems like it has been weeks since someone had a wrong pick.

Yep, that'd be me. :( :( :(

[Bob Green]

A reminder there is a Thursday night game this week (and every other week this season) so get your picks in today.

There has been no discussion of good teams to pick this week. Hmmm....are people becoming secretive? Anyway, Jaguars at home against the pitiful Bills, Cowboys at home against the Redskins, and Vikings at home against the Seahawks all look like solid picks. There are some good team/bad team matchups with the good team being on the road this week as well. I'm going with a road team this week. Which team? Nope, I'm not gonna tell. Which means the "play nice in the sandbox" genie will probably place a curse on me and I'll lose...so, on second thought, I've reconsidered...I'm picking the Bengals over the Raiders. Yep, those very same Raiders who decimated the ranks of DBR Survival Football with their win over the Eagles.

[JasonEvans]

My son really wanted to pick Detroit over Cleveland. I told him it was a bold pick and it might even happen, but he just could not risk that.

So he went with Arizona over the godawful Rams. That is about the only home team he could pick this week. All the other favorable matchups are road games.

--Jason "getting late and we still have a lot of folks alive-- props" Evans

[DukieInKansas]

I went with Dallas. I figure I can't really lose - I intensely dislike the Cowboys. If they win, I move one. If they lose, I"m still happy. :)

[toughbuff1]

I went with the Cowboys as well. I don't think they'll come out flat two games in a row, and should be able to beat the Redskins at home fairly easily. I thought about taking the Bengals at Oakland, but I try to avoid picking road teams if possible.

[cato]

My son really wanted to pick Detroit over Cleveland. I told him it was a bold pick and it might even happen, but he just could not risk that.

So he went with Arizona over the godawful Rams. That is about the only home team he could pick this week. All the other favorable matchups are road games.

--Jason "getting late and we still have a lot of folks alive-- props" Evans

I'm pretty sure that AZ is on the road. That said, it may be a safer bet to take AZ away than at home, since they are perfect on the road. And, as you noted, the Rams are godawful.

The Bengals look like the popular choice this week, and I can understand why. The Bengals are sitting atop the best conference in the NFL. And if it weren't for that freak play at the end of the Denver game, they'd only have one loss. However, this smells like a trap game to me. Oakland plays well every now and then (actually, only twice that I'm aware of -- in the first game of the season against SD, and in the win over Philly). Maybe they'll get up for this one, and catch the Bengals napping. And Ochenta y Cinco might decide to mail it in, since I doubt many people will watch this game.

[davekay1971]

Still have Minnesota available, so I went with them. I thought about Jacksonville at home over Buffalo, but I just don't trust Jacksonville any farther than I can throw them. (and with my bad back, I shouldn't be throwing anybody!)

[Turk]

I went with Dallas. I figure I can't really lose - I intensely dislike the Cowboys. If they win, I move one. If they lose, I"m still happy. :)

Great minds think alike!!

[DukieInKansas]

Great minds think alike!!

I knew I liked you!

[Bob Green]

...but I've bitten the dust, :( along with two others. The Oakland Raiders beat up on DBR Survival Football once again. At least I accomplished my initial goal of surviving Week 1. :)

[JasonEvans]

... and then there were seven.

The folks who took Dallas had a real sweat this week too.

My 10-year-old son remains alive. And he has a lot of good teams left to pick like Indy, NE, Pitt, Cincy, and Minnesota.

-Jason

[billbilly]

Oakland over Cincy...you gotta be kidding me...I hate this Survival Football game...Not really...I should have known when Oakland Beat Philly earlier in the year that it was possible...I just didn't think it was probable...at least I did better this year than previous years...

[DukieInKansas]

Oakland over Cincy...you gotta be kidding me...I hate this Survival Football game...Not really...I should have known when Oakland Beat Philly earlier in the year that it was possible...I just didn't think it was probable...at least I did better this year than previous years...

It is apparently the Larry Johnson curse. The chiefs got rid of him and won. The Bengals signed him and lost.

[Turk]

Nope, it's the Ghost of Myron Cope and the Curse of the Terrible Towel.

Last season, some foolish Tennessee Titans stomped on the Terrible Towel after they beat the Steelers. What happened? Upset first round loss in the playoffs and 0-6 start this year. Then some Bengals decided to repeat the maneuver last week after they beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh. What happened? Ugly loss to Oakland of all teams. Feel free to dislike the Steelers all you want, but do NOT desecrate the Towel. Bad things will happen.

[DukieInKansas]

Thank you, Falcons. For the 3rd week in a row, the team I picked came from behind to win in the waning moments of the game.

[davekay1971]

Well, I'm out. The Patsies let me down!

[JasonEvans]

By my calculations, about 6% of everyone who entered the Yahoo pool are still around...

...among them is my 10-year-old son.

--Jason "our group remains very strong, with about 20% of the initial entrants still around" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Another 8.42% of the people left in Yahoo's entire survivor pool were eliminated this past week. Everyone in our pool survived.

I cannot say enough about how impressed I am that we still have 6 teams still alive.

But, it is about to get really difficult. Teams that have locked up playoff spots or who have been eliminated from the playoffs are going to start resting key players or guys with nagging injuries. Predicting winners becomes a lot harder when you don't even know who is going to play.

Take the Falcons, for example. If they were still really in the playoff race, you can bet they'd find a way to get Turner and Ryan on the field. But, odds are both of those guys are going to shut it down for the rest of the year so they do not make existing injuries any worse.

Indy is already talking about shutting it down to rest for the playoffs. I suspect Nawlins is considering that too. As soon as Minny locks up the #2 spot in the NFC (perhaps this week) Favre will move into play-for-a-quarter-to-stay-sharp-but-do-nothing-to-endanger-the-postseason mode.

Plus, everyone still alive is running out of good teams to pick. It does not help that, this week, KC is playing Cleveland meaning that 2 of the stinker teams are out of the mix as far as making picks are concerned.

My son is really struggling with his pick this week as the team he wants to take is the team he also wants to take in week 17 (should he make it that far). He is not gonna take Indy because he is so sure they are not going to play their best players and they have been teetering on the cusp of losing several weeks in a row now.

--Jason "mad props to the folks still alive!" Evans

[Bostondevil]

Kansas City has had some moments of clarity at home this season. I'd go with the Chiefs at home against Cleveland, really. Cleveland hit their high spot last week in beating the Steelers. Plus the Chiefs have my all time favorite football player, Mike Vrabel. If I were still alive, I'd take the Chiefs this week.

(Or the Chargers, if I still had them to pick.)

[JasonEvans]

4 of our remaining 6 went with Houston over St. Lousers this week (including my son). 2 people picked Denver over Oakland.

What are we gonna do if we have multiple players alive when the playoffs roll around?

-Jason "all of ya'll still playing... I am so impressed!" Evans

[cato]

4 of our remaining 6 went with Houston over St. Lousers this week (including my son). 2 people picked Denver over Oakland.

What are we gonna do if we have multiple players alive when the playoffs roll around?

-Jason "all of ya'll still playing... I am so impressed!" Evans

I had a tough time with this choice. On the one hand, I've ridden whichever team is playing St. Louis hard this year, and it has worked well for me. On the other hand, I've tried very, very hard to avoid taking the road team. We'll see what happens this week.

Either way, it looks like we won't have winner this week. Either everybody is out, 2 survive, 4 survive or 6 survive. At this point, I am rooting for all of us.

[Bob Green]

-Jason "all of ya'll still playing... I am so impressed!" Evans

I am equally impressed with the DBR survival football survivors. Except for that one bad pick, I'd still be with ya...uh, wait...I guess that's the same for all us losers. :D

[Bob Green]

Oakland beats Denver and two more participants bite the dust. With their victories over the Eagles, Bengals, and Broncos, the Raiders have eliminated 14 of the 27 DBR Survival Football participants. My advice to the remaining four survivors - do not pick against the Raiders.

[cato]

And so, the final four:

Blackout Blues (that's me)
Charm City Cripplers
Doofenshmirtz Evil Inc.
TampaDuke

Next week is rough. But at least the Chargers have wrapped up the AFC West. Go Bolts!

[toughbuff1]

I (CCC) am going with Arizona this week, at home versus the Rams. I'm the only one left who still can play them, which means they will probably lose.

[JasonEvans]

I (CCC) am going with Arizona this week, at home versus the Rams. I'm the only one left who still can play them, which means they will probably lose.

My son is running out of teams to pick.

Green Bay over Seattle... nope, he's taken GB.
Cincy over KC... Cincy was used a couple weeks ago.
Nawlins over Tampa... The Saints have been used.
Arizona over StLou or San Fran over Detroit... he's already picked all these teams.

Sigh.

He is strongly considering Dallas over Washington... scary game to pick! Minnesota over Chicago and Indy over the Jets are also possibilities. Indy is gonna shut it down soon, I think, which is scary. Would anyone touch NE over Jax?

-Jason "he wants HELP!!" Evans

[Acymetric]

My son is running out of teams to pick.

Green Bay over Seattle... nope, he's taken GB.
Cincy over KC... Cincy was used a couple weeks ago.
Nawlins over Tampa... The Saints have been used.
Arizona over StLou or San Fran over Detroit... he's already picked all these teams.

Sigh.

He is strongly considering Dallas over Washington... scary game to pick! Minnesota over Chicago and Indy over the Jets are also possibilities. Indy is gonna shut it down soon, I think, which is scary. Would anyone touch NE over Jax?

-Jason "he wants HELP!!" Evans

I haven't been playing, but I was bored and decided to see how many people were still in this. Personally I would take Dallas over Washington this week, and based on the other teams you mentioned there I would save the Colts for the Bills game in week 17. Even resting some starters (including Manning) I would pick the Colts over the Bills. Are there any other teams left on the board for him that you didn't mention?

[duke23]

My son is running out of teams to pick.

Green Bay over Seattle... nope, he's taken GB.
Cincy over KC... Cincy was used a couple weeks ago.
Nawlins over Tampa... The Saints have been used.
Arizona over StLou or San Fran over Detroit... he's already picked all these teams.

Sigh.

He is strongly considering Dallas over Washington... scary game to pick! Minnesota over Chicago and Indy over the Jets are also possibilities. Indy is gonna shut it down soon, I think, which is scary. Would anyone touch NE over Jax?

-Jason "he wants HELP!!" Evans

Is ATL over buffalo an option? If not, I'd probably go MIN vs CHI out of the other options - Chicago has looked like they gave up 5 weeks ago and the game is important to the Vikings for home field advantage.

[Bob Green]

He is strongly considering Dallas over Washington... scary game to pick! Minnesota over Chicago and Indy over the Jets are also possibilities. Indy is gonna shut it down soon, I think, which is scary. Would anyone touch NE over Jax?

-Jason "he wants HELP!!" Evans

Do not pick an away team so Dallas over Washington and Minnesota over Chicago are out. The key is to survive and advance so my advice is to go with Indy at home over the Jets.

I do have one caveat: If you accept my advice please take into account that you are listening to a proven loser. :)

[JasonEvans]

Atlanta is not an option. Took them early in the season before they went downhill a bit.

The Jets would be, far and away, the best team he has picked against all year. Minnesota versus Chicago is tempting but the Chicago weather is a troubling X-factor.

I think Dallas is the way to go, but am really worried about this week.

-Jason

[cato]

Atlanta is not an option. Took them early in the season before they went downhill a bit.

The Jets would be, far and away, the best team he has picked against all year. Minnesota versus Chicago is tempting but the Chicago weather is a troubling X-factor.

I think Dallas is the way to go, but am really worried about this week.

-Jason

A few things to consider:

1. The punk Jay Cutler is having a miserable season, and tends to lose a lot in December.

2. Dallas v. Washington* is a division matchup, so be careful.

3. Indy is playing for history. The players may say all the right things about only wanting to win the last game of the season, but they are so close now, why not go for it?



*Do kids play "Indians and cowboys" anymore?

[JasonEvans]

I think Indy is going to be resting a lot of starters this week.

6 starters skipped practice (http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=ap-colts-injuries&prov=ap&type=lgns) yesterday.

--Jason "the Jets are just too good for me to pick against them" Evans

[Bob Green]

....my advice is to go with Indy at home over the Jets.

Doofenschmirtz Evil Inc. eliminated in Week 16. I feel bad. :(

[Bostondevil]

Wow, three folks left for the last weekend of the season. If you have either Baltimore or the Jets left, I'd pick one of them. If they win, they're in. You know they will be playing their starters.

Ha, ha, ha, Indy. (Sorry the kid went out, but not sorry Indy got beat.)

[cato]

Doofenschmirtz Evil Inc. eliminated in Week 16. I feel bad. :(

Me too -- particularly since I voted for Indy over Dallas. Sorry Jason's son!

For the final week, I'm going with Denver over KC. If Denver wins, I'll have survived the entire season. If KC wins, I'll enjoy watching the Ponies realize that they missed the playoffs because they couldn't handle Oakland and KC.

[JasonEvans]

My son's original pick was Dallas over Washington. He changed it at the last minute when a family friend who is an Indy fan berated him for like an hour at a Holiday party for not picking Indy. My son is saying he will never speak to this friend again ;)

I don't think I've ever seen anyone make it all the way until the end of the season in Survivor. The fact that we have 3 teams still alive is quite impressive!! I hope each of you make your picks and your rationale behind them known to the rest of us this week, so we can enjoy the final round!

--Jason "unless, of course, Yahoo continues the Survival Pool into the Playoffs, which would be really difficult" Evans

[TampaDuke]

Tough loss for your son, Jason, especially given that the Colts probably win if they don't pull their starters. A good run nonetheless. I thought I was going out last week, too, once the Broncos rallied to send it to overtime against the Eagles.

I am surprised I made it this far, given that my strategy throughout the season was to only worry about each week (and not who I might have available for coming weeks) and to make my selection based on my gut reaction on Sunday night (or Monday night if I picked the Monday game that week). With that strategy in mind, on Sunday night I picked the Broncos over the Chiefs for this week.

I am not a believer in the Broncos and I hate rivalry games, so I am uncomfortable with my pick. I also considered San Fran over St. Louis and Jax over Cleveland. But both of those teams are on the road and Cleveland looks better over the last month. I've picked against St. Louis a lot this year and they have not disappointed so San Fran would probably have been my second choice on Sunday night.

I could still pick the Jets, but I did not seriously consider them on Sunday night because they play the Bengals. I didn't realize until today that the Bengals may not play all their starters, so that pick is more intriguing now. However, I haven't switched my pick all season so I'm not going to do it now. Besides, depending upon how the early games shake out, the Bengals may have something to play for, like taking the #3 seed and a better possibility of a home game in the AFC Championship game or, at the very least, knocking out the Jets who may be a tougher opponent in the playoffs than the Broncos for example.

[toughbuff1]

I went with Jacksonville at the last minute. I hate picking road teams, but even though the Browns are a slight favorite in this game (don't know how) I think the Jags are going to be able to handle Cleveland. I had Denver available, but they are only 2-7 in their last nine games, and playing without Marshall. I still think they will win, but I think Kansas City is more likely to pull out a win than Cleveland.

[JasonEvans]

I went with Jacksonville at the last minute. I hate picking road teams, but even though the Browns are a slight favorite in this game (don't know how) I think the Jags are going to be able to handle Cleveland. I had Denver available, but they are only 2-7 in their last nine games, and playing without Marshall. I still think they will win, but I think Kansas City is more likely to pull out a win than Cleveland.

You are the only one with a chance to actually win. The other two folks left at this point have Denver as their pick, so they best they can do is tie each other.

3 out of 30 still alive, quite impressive for week 17!!

--Jason "if one of you survives be sure to let us know what Yahoo does next week-- do you pick the Playoffs?" Evans

[InSpades]

Denver definitely seemed like a solid pick... too bad for everyone who came so close to running the table. Still a very impressive streak. Going into this all I didn't expect anyone to make it that far. Better luck next year to all involved!

[Bostondevil]

Wow, three folks left for the last weekend of the season. If you have either Baltimore or the Jets left, I'd pick one of them. If they win, they're in. You know they will be playing their starters.



Ahem.

[TampaDuke]

Fun while it lasted.

[InSpades]

Ahem.

None of them actually had Baltimore left to pick. Denver vs. the Jets... is a tough call I think. I guess in hindsight picking against a team that has every reason to rest their players is a good idea. It seems like every team that was already assured of their spot in the playoffs ended up laying down (Colts, Patriots, Saints, Cardinals) except for the Chargers.

[mkirsh]

Chargers did lay down (Rivers/Gates/LDT only played 2 or 3 series), but the Redskins still couldn't beat them.

[-bdbd]

For us Redskins fans in DC it is finally some good news in the wake of a bad season, and horrible football decade for this storied franchise. The new 'skins Coach is to be introduced Wed. at a 2PM EST presser. Mike Shannahan (sp?) will be getting $7M for 5 years and taking on the additional title of Football Ops VP. His son is coming in, from the Houston OC job, to be the OC here. Most 'skins fans are delighted, as finally we get a HC with some automatic cache, for a talented but underachieving team that needs that leadership. It appears that our new GM and Mr. Snyder, the owner, will let Mike make his own personnel decisions. We can only hope - as many here blame Syder's "meddling" as a big cause of the recent demise. (That and some very poor decisions by ex-GM Cerrato, a good friend of Syder's). Finally we'll let some real pro's do their jobs apparently. Fingers crossed.

:D:D:D

[cato]

Mike Shannahan (sp?)


It's spelled: M-i-k-e S-a-t-a-n-h-a-n.