Tour de France

[JasonEvans]

Ummm, don't look now but Lance may be wearing Yellow tomorrow.

There was a surprise attack by Team Columbia today that broke a small group off from the peleton. Lance joined the attack (though he did not lead it) and when the day was done, Lance had gained 39 seconds on most of the main contenders.

He is now in 3rd place overall, 40 seconds behind Fabian Cancellara, a time-trail specialist who is not a legit candidate to win the whole thing. More importantly, Lance is now ahead of his Astana teammate Alberto Contador by 19 seconds. Tomorrow is the Team Time Trial, and Astana appears to be the best team out there (with Lance, Contador, Levi Leipheimer, Andreas Kloden, and others). It would not be at all of a stretch for Astana to grab 40+ seconds from Cancellara, who rides for Team Saxo Bank, and put Lance in the lead.

What happens from there is anyone's guess. Astana's line had been, "Contador is a leader. We ride for him." But after today's stage, Lance said,
“I am not ok with the theory saying there can be only one team leader.
I have won seven Tours de France, I will have to be counted in.”

Uh-oh. Astana could now be a team divided. Yaroslav Popovych, a longtime teammate of Lance, would probably be on Lance's side. I am not sure where Levi Leipheimer or Andreas Kloden will fall (though both could be contenders to win the whole thing if they were on a different team). And then there is Astana team manager Johan Bruyneel, who was Lance's manager with US Postal and for all of Lance's Tour victories. How will he manage a team with 2 big-time Tour contenders? It will be interesting to watch.

--Jason "I still see Lance as a bit of a longshot to win the Tour... I'd make his odds about 5-1" Evans

[roywhite]

Today's stage sounds like one of the most interesting flat stages in a long time. Looking forward to watching tonight and listening to Phil and Paul.

This is such a great event, despite numerous doping incidents. I hope this year is relatively clean.

Gotta root for Lance in this one; what a story.

[DukieInKansas]

Today's stage sounds like one of the most interesting flat stages in a long time. Looking forward to watching tonight and listening to Phil and Paul.

This is such a great event, despite numerous doping incidents. I hope this year is relatively clean.

Gotta root for Lance in this one; what a story.

I wouldn't mind seeing Lance win, but would much rather see Levi win. An all Astana podium would even be more fun!

I realize Versus is gearing it's coverage to the US audience, most of whom started watching because of Lance, but I wish they wouldn't be so totally Lance driven. Especially on 7/3, I wish they had thrown a few other amazing stages in their run up to the start. I wouldn't mind seeing Greg LeMond's final time trial against Laurent Fignon to win le Tour in 1989 or an hour devoted to some of the former winners - Eddie the Cannibal, Bernard Hinault, Miguel Indurain, etc. And during the coverage, there are many others in the peleton deserving of some special coverage - Georgie riding his 14th TdF and then there are my two personal favorites - Jens Voight and Stuart O'Grady.

[Rich]

While I'm fascinated with Lance Armstrong's achievements, I have to confess that I have never understood the team concept in respect to cycling. I know it has to do with setting a pace, but are they really a team or not? If they're a team, how exactly does that work? How come only one person actually wins? Do the teammates all agree to lose so that their "teammate" can win? Why doesn't the whole team get credit at the end if one of their teammates wins?

[weezie]

Hey Jason, I am enjoying your new moniker about Atlanta. Good chuckles there.:D
Kind of like Detroit, except for the Wings.

[PumpkinFunk]

While I'm fascinated with Lance Armstrong's achievements, I have to confess that I have never understood the team concept in respect to cycling. I know it has to do with setting a pace, but are they really a team or not? If they're a team, how exactly does that work? How come only one person actually wins? Do the teammates all agree to lose so that their "teammate" can win? Why doesn't the whole team get credit at the end if one of their teammates wins?

They are a team, and the earnings generally are split amongst the entire team at a race when someone wins. There's many riders with different roles depending on the race. In a Grand Tour, you obviously have a GC (general classification) leader, who the team is supporting. They have strong climbers to help them out in the mountains (either by leading the peloton or pacing them if they begin to struggle), some riders who can motor on the flats and bring back dangerous breaks or just help them get back if there's a mechanical. There's also sprinters on some teams, who are there to win the flat stages, and generally on the middle stages after the early mountains, some riders will go in breaks to go for an individual stage victory. Every rider has a different role, but generally there's only 1 GC leader, or at most 2 potential GC leaders who will work together to get a lower-ranking GC spot in the top 10 or so. This year, with Astana having at least 4 riders who could get on a podium or in the top-10 at the worst (I'd go with 6 - Armstrong, Leipheimer, Contador, Kloden, Zubeldia, and Popovych) if given the chance to ride for themselves, there is a lot of dissent that could happen.

A lot of teams rode poorly today, but ultimately, I think that the maillot jaune after tomorrow will belong to either Fabian Cancellara again or 2nd-placed Tony Martin. Both of them have solid teams which should be in the top 3 of the placing tomorrow. If Bradley Wiggins had made the split today, I'd be cheering for him or another Garmin rider. I still hope they win, but they need way too much to get the yellow jersey after this TTT.

[DukieInKansas]

To add to PumpkinFunk's comments, part of the domestiques' job on the team is to sacrifice for the leader of the team - they ride in front of them to allow the leader to conserve energy due to drafting, they will drop back to the team cars to get water bottles to pass out to the other team members or get food/rain gear, etc. If the leader has a flat or mechanical and the team car isn't around to give aid, the domestique will give the leader the wheel off his bike. It is fun to watch riders load up with water bottles and see how many they can carry.

Often, the winner of the Tour will give all his prize money to his team mates and support staff, keeping none for himself. He usually has a bigger contract than his teammates, so he gives the prize money to those that made it possible for him to win.

There has been more than one occasion that two team members end up on the podium together - so helping the leader also benefits the helper. (Contador/Leipheimer, Riis/Ulrich)

Tomorrow sees the return of the team time trial - you will really see team work on this event. And they didn't return to the stupid rule of 4 years ago limiting time losses based on placement instead of actual time lost.

[hughgs]

While I'm fascinated with Lance Armstrong's achievements, I have to confess that I have never understood the team concept in respect to cycling. I know it has to do with setting a pace, but are they really a team or not? If they're a team, how exactly does that work? How come only one person actually wins? Do the teammates all agree to lose so that their "teammate" can win? Why doesn't the whole team get credit at the end if one of their teammates wins?

There is more than one objective when racing the TdF. There is the overall (or GC), but there are a number of other races. While watching the race notice all the different jerseys. Each one signifies a different race within the TdF. The green jersey is for sprinting, the polka-dot for climbing, the white for young rider, the yellow for GC, and yellow numbers for the team. And then there's winning an individual stage.

Different teams aim for different objectives. Astana obviously is going for the GC and hence their team is built to help Contador win the yellow jersey. Similarly, while Columbia has a GC contender I think you can safely say that they are most interested in the green jersey for Cavendish. In addition, there are teams that are hoping for individual stage wins, Garmin-Slipstream comes to mind. And finally there are teams that are simply interested in getting publicity. These are the teams that seem to always have someone trying a crazy 100 mile break-away, such as Skil-Shimano.

For a team to achieve their primary objective the other riders on the team need to play their part. Think of these domestiques as offensive linemen in football. Not a lot of glory but they are needed to perform all the little jobs as DukieInKansas explained. And as recognition, winnings are pooled for the entire team to share.

Today's break was especially interesting. Astana had 3 men in the break, and they were obviously helping in the break to maintain it's lead. In the peloton I don't remember Astana helping to reel in the break, which would imply that Astana was saving something for tomorrow's stage (the team time trial) and/or they felt that Contador wasn't threatened by anyone in the break. The fact that Lance could be in yellow after tomorrow doesn't really mean much to me other than he'll be in yellow. From the way Astana rode yesterday's stage, with Lance helping to bring back the break at the end and Contador protected, I think it's obvious that Contador is the team leader.

[roywhite]

Today's break was especially interesting. Astana had 3 men in the break, and they were obviously helping in the break to maintain it's lead. In the peloton I don't remember Astana helping to reel in the break, which would imply that Astana was saving something for tomorrow's stage (the team time trial) and/or they felt that Contador wasn't threatened by anyone in the break. The fact that Lance could be in yellow after tomorrow doesn't really mean much to me other than he'll be in yellow. From the way Astana rode yesterday's stage, with Lance helping to bring back the break at the end and Contador protected, I think it's obvious that Contador is the team leader.

You may be right. But I'm not so sure.

[hughgs]

You may be right. But I'm not so sure.

I only have the one data point from Sunday so I'll admit it's not a very convincing argument.

[JasonEvans]

I only have the one data point from Sunday so I'll admit it's not a very convincing argument.

And if you notice Lance's comment I quoted earlier today, at a bare minimum it must be noted that LANCE does not think he is simply there to help Contador win the GC.

--Jason "recall what happened to Greg Lemond and Bernard Hinault in 1985 and 86 -- this kind of team division has happened before" Evans

[hughgs]

And if you notice Lance's comment I quoted earlier today, at a bare minimum it must be noted that LANCE does not think he is simply there to help Contador win the GC.

--Jason "recall what happened to Greg Lemond and Bernard Hinault in 1985 and 86 -- this kind of team division has happened before" Evans

But, Lance's comment does not preclude him working for Contador. I think Lance's comment could have been made by Levi, Kloden, or any secondary GC contender on any of the other teams. Levi alluded to doing more than simply helping Contador before the start of stage 2. In fact I would say that no rider is there "simply to help X".

If something goes wrong during the race then teams need other GC (or whatevere primary objective the team has) contenders. In Astana's case, since they have the personnel, then it makes sense to push other riders, such as Lance, as high up in the early GC classification as possible. If Kloden had made the break then I think that Astana's tactics would have been the same and we probably wouldn't be having this argument.

[Exiled_Devil]

I would not be surprised to see an all Astana podium. We'll se ehow Lance stands up in teh mountains, but so far (I've just watched the TTT finish) he is as strong, if not stronger than Contador. And Kloden is doing well, too.

Still, just to see Lance in Yellow during this tour, even if it isn't in Paris, would be amazing.

[roywhite]

Following this online, looks like Astana won the Team Time Trial. The margin over Saxo Bank (3rd) was 40 seconds. Looks like the yellow jersey comes down to a fraction of a second.

Anyone know what the updated standings are? Can they have a tie for the yellow jersey?

[hughgs]

Following this online, looks like Astana won the Team Time Trial. The margin over Saxo Bank (3rd) was 40 seconds. Looks like the yellow jersey comes down to a fraction of a second.

Anyone know what the updated standings are? Can they have a tie for the yellow jersey?

You can look at either cyclingnews.com or velonews.com for updated standings.

Cancellera in yellow (supposedly by 0.1 seconds) over Armstrong, followed by Contador, Levi, and Kloden. No ties. The race records hundredths of seconds to avoid that.

[camion]

Is there any chance that Lance and team were thinking strategically enough to intentionally allow Cancellara to retain the yellow jersey and be forced to defend it for a while? The close margin argues against it, but it's an interesting thought.

[hughgs]

Is there any chance that Lance and team were thinking strategically enough to intentionally allow Cancellara to retain the yellow jersey and be forced to defend it for a while? The close margin argues against it, but it's an interesting thought.

I suspect Astana wanted Cancellara to keep the yellow jersey. It's a traditional Bruyneel tactic. I also suspect that when Bruyneel saw how close they were to getting the yellow jersey they went for it, with the understanding that Astana wouldn't defend it tomorrow.

[DukieInKansas]

I would not be surprised to see an all Astana podium. We'll se ehow Lance stands up in teh mountains, but so far (I've just watched the TTT finish) he is as strong, if not stronger than Contador. And Kloden is doing well, too.

Still, just to see Lance in Yellow during this tour, even if it isn't in Paris, would be amazing.

An all Astana podium is what I am hoping for - and I don't really care the order. I think it will be incredibly difficult, but it sure would be fun.



Oh - and I really do care about the order - I would love to see Levi on top of the podium - or at least in yellow for a day.

[JasonEvans]

The Yellow cracked today. It was ugly.

Contador ran away late in the stage and Lance chose not to respond because he wanted to let Contador get some time on Cadel Evans, who was struggling to keep up with Contador. Either that or Lance did not have the energy to respond, hard to say.

It looks like Contador might have taken the Yellow by a fraction of a second over Lance... either that or Lance will be in Yellow by a fraction of a second. We'll know soon.

I think it is clear though, that Contador is still the Astana team leader.

-Jason "good ride today-- nice to be in the mountains!" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Ooops, I was wrong. Rinaldo Nocentini, who was in the lead pack ahead of the peleton, has taken yellow. He leads Contador by 6 seconds. Lance is another 2 seconds back. Regardless, Nocenti is not going to hold yellow for long, I suspect.

I hope Johann lets Lance and Levi attack at some point. I want to see the best riders challenge each other, even if they are on the same team.

--Jason "Levi is in 4th at 39 seconds... I could certainly see Levi, Lance, and Alberto on the podium together in Paris!" Evans

[g_olaf]

--Jason "Levi is in 4th at 39 seconds... I could certainly see Levi, Lance, and Alberto on the podium together in Paris!" Evans

Don't be too quick to count out the Schleck bros.

[hughgs]

The Yellow cracked today. It was ugly.

Contador ran away late in the stage and Lance chose not to respond because he wanted to let Contador get some time on Cadel Evans, who was struggling to keep up with Contador. Either that or Lance did not have the energy to respond, hard to say.

It looks like Contador might have taken the Yellow by a fraction of a second over Lance... either that or Lance will be in Yellow by a fraction of a second. We'll know soon.

I think it is clear though, that Contador is still the Astana team leader.

-Jason "good ride today-- nice to be in the mountains!" Evans

Rather than Lance "letting" Contador go I thought he was simply following good team tactics. With Contador away, then everyone else had to accelerate to stay with him. If Lance accelerates to catch his teammate then everyone gets a free ride up to Contador and don't lose time. Therefore good team tactics require that all of Contador's teammates follow rather than lead.

I thought the most telling moment of the race was the first time that Evans attacked. Contador follows and sits third wheel and there's a small split in the field. Lance accelerates to reach the group. If Lance was riding for himself then he would've simply stayed on the back. But, Lance comes to the front and then sits in front of Contador. That is the performance of a super-domestique, not someone riding for the yellow jersey.

However, the best part of the sequence is still to come. Lance used an opening to grab second wheel, putting Contador closer to the front to cover more attacks. Then, it looks like Evans slows down a bit and Lance keeps up the tempo. This forces Evans to accelerate again using precious energy, and I'm convinced that it causes Evans to attack (sometimes it's easier on the legs to accelerate than to hold pace up an incline) to create the split that ultimately allows Contador to regain time on GC.

BTW, don't forget that Kloden is still in contention, less than a minute back and that Garmin-Slipstream is sitting very well with both Vande Velde and Wiggins. Good stuff.

[DukieInKansas]

Rather than Lance "letting" Contador go I thought he was simply following good team tactics. With Contador away, then everyone else had to accelerate to stay with him. If Lance accelerates to catch his teammate then everyone gets a free ride up to Contador and don't lose time. Therefore good team tactics require that all of Contador's teammates follow rather than lead.

I thought the most telling moment of the race was the first time that Evans attacked. Contador follows and sits third wheel and there's a small split in the field. Lance accelerates to reach the group. If Lance was riding for himself then he would've simply stayed on the back. But, Lance comes to the front and then sits in front of Contador. That is the performance of a super-domestique, not someone riding for the yellow jersey.

However, the best part of the sequence is still to come. Lance used an opening to grab second wheel, putting Contador closer to the front to cover more attacks. Then, it looks like Evans slows down a bit and Lance keeps up the tempo. This forces Evans to accelerate again using precious energy, and I'm convinced that it causes Evans to attack (sometimes it's easier on the legs to accelerate than to hold pace up an incline) to create the split that ultimately allows Contador to regain time on GC.

BTW, don't forget that Kloden is still in contention, less than a minute back and that Garmin-Slipstream is sitting very well with both Vande Velde and Wiggins. Good stuff.

Definitely a great ride by the entire Astana team. I hope they can keep the 4 in the top 10. It would be fun to see it come down to the ITT for them to fight it out for the yellow.

[DukieInKansas]

Forgot about Mont Ventoux being on the final Saturday. That should be the Astana showdown day.

[DevilAlumna]

Rather than Lance "letting" Contador go I thought he was simply following good team tactics. With Contador away, then everyone else had to accelerate to stay with him. If Lance accelerates to catch his teammate then everyone gets a free ride up to Contador and don't lose time. Therefore good team tactics require that all of Contador's teammates follow rather than lead.

I thought the most telling moment of the race was the first time that Evans attacked. Contador follows and sits third wheel and there's a small split in the field. Lance accelerates to reach the group. If Lance was riding for himself then he would've simply stayed on the back. But, Lance comes to the front and then sits in front of Contador. That is the performance of a super-domestique, not someone riding for the yellow jersey.

However, the best part of the sequence is still to come. Lance used an opening to grab second wheel, putting Contador closer to the front to cover more attacks. Then, it looks like Evans slows down a bit and Lance keeps up the tempo. This forces Evans to accelerate again using precious energy, and I'm convinced that it causes Evans to attack (sometimes it's easier on the legs to accelerate than to hold pace up an incline) to create the split that ultimately allows Contador to regain time on GC.

BTW, don't forget that Kloden is still in contention, less than a minute back and that Garmin-Slipstream is sitting very well with both Vande Velde and Wiggins. Good stuff.

I don't follow team cycling in part because I never really understood the 'team' concept. This was a great set of examples - I appreciate it, thanks.

[hughgs]

I don't follow team cycling in part because I never really understood the 'team' concept. This was a great set of examples - I appreciate it, thanks.

No problem. What I tend to do is follow one team, in this case Astana, and start by counting the number of riders and where they are. Then I start looking for Armstrong, simply because his helmet is a different color. Then I figure out where Contador is (he has yellow glasses) and try to recognize the other Astana riders (usually without much success).

After that it's simply a matter of seeing who is last in the group, they tend to be the leaders. Watching Saturday's stage (for about the third time) I've noticed that Contador doesn't do the best job of holding Lance's wheel. He's always close, but sometimes he lets a rider or two get ahead between him and Lance. I wonder how much of that is due to his youth. That would explain the difference between his desire to attack on Friday and Bruyneel's desire to hold back.

And if you want to stay interested in cycling don't watch the individual time trials :). Or if you have to watch them, multi-task.

[JasonEvans]

Here is a nice article (http://sports.yahoo.com/sc/news;_ylt=ArMOvNBn6ciSfyu1f79pcJ5.grcF?slug=ro-tourdefrance071109&prov=yhoo&type=lgns) that talks about the quandary Astana is in as a team.

Armstrong is not getting paid by Astana, having offered his services for free on the understanding that he would be allowed to wear his LiveStrong helmet to promote his cancer charity.

When the arrangement was put in place, the Kazakh owners could not have imagined the American would be able to recreate his past form after three years away from the sport, and envisaged him as being the ideal man to assist Contador.

In future years, it is expected that the Kazakhs will look to fill the team with riders from their own country, plus a handful of Spaniards led by Contador. Therefore, it is the younger man who would be their preferred victor this year.

It goes on to say though that Johann has made it clear that he is going to let Armstrong and Contador fight it out later in the race... which would be fun!

--Jason "the race will be decided in the Alps" Evans

[hughgs]

Here is a nice article (http://sports.yahoo.com/sc/news;_ylt=ArMOvNBn6ciSfyu1f79pcJ5.grcF?slug=ro-tourdefrance071109&prov=yhoo&type=lgns) that talks about the quandary Astana is in as a team.


It goes on to say though that Johann has made it clear that he is going to let Armstrong and Contador fight it out later in the race... which would be fun!

--Jason "the race will be decided in the Alps" Evans

In terms of the near future of Astana here's a rumor from cyclingnews.com

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/kazakh-coup-to-oust-armstrong-and-bruyneel-from-team-astana

It's rumored that Vino wants Astana back and that Lance and Bruyneel would be out.

[sue71]

I used to watch the Tour and wanted to again this year, but realized last week that I don't have the sports package thus no Versus... I would've added it but since I've temporarily been relocated, I held off. Now, in the hotel, no Versus. :(

[camion]

It you have the time (8:30 AM to 11:30) and broadband you can watch live streaming video on the Versus web site (http://www.versus.com/tdf) and also at cyclingfans.com (http://www.cyclingfans.com/) I believe. The Versus streaming video is $2.50 per day. I watched one stage live on Versus.com when I couldn't find a TV feed.

[PumpkinFunk]

The race should get interesting next weekend between the 2nd ITT and the climb on Ventoux.

Armstrong, if his form is improving, should be able to win a fairly flat ITT over Contador easily. Of course, there's a few others who are probably better than both in a flat ITT these days who are closer to the top - Levi, Kloden, Christian Vande Velde, and Bradley Wiggins.

The next couple of stages, though, will either be sprints (Columbia and Cervelo for Cav and Thor Hushovd) or breakaways. AG2R will work as hard as they can to keep Nocentini in yellow until we hit the Alps. And honestly, I wouldn't count him to lose the yellow until the day before the next rest (so next Sunday). Nocentini is a decent climber, and won't drop on any stages before that.

[Lavabe]

I am now in Antsiranana, Madagascar in my hotel room, watching TV5Monde coverage on the French holiday, the 14th of July. Just wanted to post some thoughts watching the coverage of the French TV5Monde vs. my annual watching on Vs.:
1) Part of me misses Liggett, Sherwin, and Bobke.
2) Part of me doesn't miss the Vs. production focus on the Americans. So far, with 60 km to go, I have heard NO discussion of Tour de Lance, but a LOT of discussion of/with Jalabert and of previous 14th of July races. Cofidis and FDJeux figure in discussion quite a lot, but it's the 14th of July, and the French are out for winning the stage.
3) The Vs. feed is exactly the same as that of Tv5Monde.
4) Lots of chit-chat among the announcers, but NOT like what you get on Vs.
5) The lack of special breakaway features is SOOOOO nice.
6) None of the music of Vs.
7) OKAY, with 45 km to go, FINALLY a mention of Tour de Lance.
8) I miss seeing CSC.
9) I recall Lance talking about the colors of the race, especially in the team time trials. I think he's onto something. I really enjoy the colors of the race, from the cyclists, to the spectators, to the scenery/landscape.
10) The TV5 coverage gives more breaks of silence than does Vs. What I mean is, you don't get as much incessant talking from the announcers. You also get more coverage of the local arts, culture, history, and landmarks.

ANYWAY, back to watching the race.
Cheers,
Lavabe

P.S. I still chuckle whenever I hear "Leaky Gas.";)

[g_olaf]

Tough day for the vikings...

Kurt Asle Arvesen may have to abandon, and Cavendish proved (once again) that he's faster than Thor, the God of Thunder.

[hughgs]

I am now in Antsiranana, Madagascar in my hotel room, watching TV5Monde coverage on the French holiday, the 14th of July. Just wanted to post some thoughts watching the coverage of the French TV5Monde vs. my annual watching on Vs.:
1) Part of me misses Liggett, Sherwin, and Bobke.
2) Part of me doesn't miss the Vs. production focus on the Americans. So far, with 60 km to go, I have heard NO discussion of Tour de Lance, but a LOT of discussion of/with Jalabert and of previous 14th of July races. Cofidis and FDJeux figure in discussion quite a lot, but it's the 14th of July, and the French are out for winning the stage.
3) The Vs. feed is exactly the same as that of Tv5Monde.
4) Lots of chit-chat among the announcers, but NOT like what you get on Vs.
5) The lack of special breakaway features is SOOOOO nice.
6) None of the music of Vs.
7) OKAY, with 45 km to go, FINALLY a mention of Tour de Lance.
8) I miss seeing CSC.
9) I recall Lance talking about the colors of the race, especially in the team time trials. I think he's onto something. I really enjoy the colors of the race, from the cyclists, to the spectators, to the scenery/landscape.
10) The TV5 coverage gives more breaks of silence than does Vs. What I mean is, you don't get as much incessant talking from the announcers. You also get more coverage of the local arts, culture, history, and landmarks.

ANYWAY, back to watching the race.
Cheers,
Lavabe

P.S. I still chuckle whenever I hear "Leaky Gas.";)

I believe that the video feed is the same for all channels and it's simply a matter of the audio that one hears. I used to listen to eurosport.com commentary at work and then watch/listen to Versus when I got home.

On the audio front I've recently started speculating that Versus actually does two sets of commentaries during the race. The first set is with Phil and Sherwin while the second set is with Bob Roll and Chris Hummer.

[Cavlaw]

Levi is out. Broken wrist. :(

[JasonEvans]

Levi is out. Broken wrist. :(

Lance just lost a key ally in the battle for Astana. Lance has described the situation on the team as tense and I am sure Lance wanted as many allies as possible. I wonder where Brunyeel falls. The Astana ownership has already said that next year it will not bring Armstrong and probably Johann back as it builds around Contador only.

--Jason "so much for the Astana podium sweep... unless Kloden can get up there" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Well, we can put this to rest.

Contador went and ran away from everyone else in today's stage, which featured a mountaintop finish. Lance moved up to 2nd overall, but is now about a minute and a half back of his teammate and is saying (http://sports.yahoo.com/sc/news;_ylt=AqdY_goIef1PnKwEitMHgSU5nYcB?slug=ap-tourdefrance&prov=ap&type=lgns) he has no plans to attack Contador later in the race.


“This is a team sport,” Armstrong said. “I think now is the time for me to put my chances aside, and focus on the team.”

“Hey, (if) we ride into Paris with the yellow jersey on the team, I’m cool with that,” Armstrong said. “I got seven of ‘em at home.”

I don't really see anyone challenging Contador. I guess it could happen, but I'd be surprised. The biggest question may be whether Lance can hold onto 2nd overall. Andy Schleck seemed very strong today and he is less than a minute back of Lance.

--Jason "who knew that Bradley Wiggins could fare this well on mountains?!?" Evans

[DukieInKansas]

Well, we can put this to rest.

Contador went and ran away from everyone else in today's stage, which featured a mountaintop finish. Lance moved up to 2nd overall, but is now about a minute and a half back of his teammate and is saying (http://sports.yahoo.com/sc/news;_ylt=AqdY_goIef1PnKwEitMHgSU5nYcB?slug=ap-tourdefrance&prov=ap&type=lgns) he has no plans to attack Contador later in the race.



I don't really see anyone challenging Contador. I guess it could happen, but I'd be surprised. The biggest question may be whether Lance can hold onto 2nd overall. Andy Schleck seemed very strong today and he is less than a minute back of Lance.

--Jason "who knew that Bradley Wiggins could fare this well on mountains?!?" Evans

I got a chuckle out of Frankie's comment about the dinner table being less tense now. I'm not counting Lance out for a podium finish. Ventoux and the time trial the day before will be the key.

[camion]

Contador seems to be the the class of the field now. I know it's just one day, but looking forward to Paris I am now expecting Contador, Wiggins and Schleck to be on the podium. I hope Lance can hold on and it should be exciting.

[mapei]

I've been scarce on the board lately, what with real life, work and all. But Alberto represented yesterday, big-time. I don't see anyone challenging him. I read a comment above suggesting that he wasn't a good time trialist, but that's no longer true. He is the current Spanish TT champion and was second only to the amazing Cancellara on the stage 1 opener. I think he will be in the top 5 in Thursday's ITT, and within a minute of the stage winner. Kloden may well be the second-best Astana rider on the day; we'll see.

On the Ventoux, I see only Sastre and Andy as possible rivals to Alberto, and don't be surprised if there is massive destruction all over the GC field - very unusual to have a stage like that so late in the race.

Jason is absolutely right about Wiggins, the surprise of the Tour for me. Wow. Camion's podium could well be right, although Wiggins will have to prove it.

Loved the way Saxo rode yesterday. Cancellara may be my current favorite rider, and Jens Voight can't be far behind.

[DukieInKansas]

I've been scarce on the board lately, what with real life, work and all. But Alberto represented yesterday, big-time. I don't see anyone challenging him. I read a comment above suggesting that he wasn't a good time trialist, but that's no longer true. He is the current Spanish TT champion and was second only to the amazing Cancellara on the stage 1 opener. I think he will be in the top 5 in Thursday's ITT, and within a minute of the stage winner. Kloden may well be the second-best Astana rider on the day; we'll see.

On the Ventoux, I see only Sastre and Andy as possible rivals to Alberto, and don't be surprised if there is massive destruction all over the GC field - very unusual to have a stage like that so late in the race.

Jason is absolutely right about Wiggins, the surprise of the Tour for me. Wow. Camion's podium could well be right, although Wiggins will have to prove it.

Loved the way Saxo rode yesterday. Cancellara may be my current favorite rider, and Jens Voight can't be far behind.

Jens Voight and Stuart O'Grady have been favorites of mine for quite a while.

[DukieInKansas]

I am now in Antsiranana, Madagascar in my hotel room, watching TV5Monde coverage on the French holiday, the 14th of July. Just wanted to post some thoughts watching the coverage of the French TV5Monde vs. my annual watching on Vs.:
1) Part of me misses Liggett, Sherwin, and Bobke.
2) Part of me doesn't miss the Vs. production focus on the Americans. So far, with 60 km to go, I have heard NO discussion of Tour de Lance, but a LOT of discussion of/with Jalabert and of previous 14th of July races. Cofidis and FDJeux figure in discussion quite a lot, but it's the 14th of July, and the French are out for winning the stage.
3) The Vs. feed is exactly the same as that of Tv5Monde.
4) Lots of chit-chat among the announcers, but NOT like what you get on Vs.
5) The lack of special breakaway features is SOOOOO nice.
6) None of the music of Vs.
7) OKAY, with 45 km to go, FINALLY a mention of Tour de Lance.
8) I miss seeing CSC.
9) I recall Lance talking about the colors of the race, especially in the team time trials. I think he's onto something. I really enjoy the colors of the race, from the cyclists, to the spectators, to the scenery/landscape.
10) The TV5 coverage gives more breaks of silence than does Vs. What I mean is, you don't get as much incessant talking from the announcers. You also get more coverage of the local arts, culture, history, and landmarks.

ANYWAY, back to watching the race.
Cheers,
Lavabe

P.S. I still chuckle whenever I hear "Leaky Gas.";)

CSC is still there - they just spell it Saxo Bank now. ;)

[DukieInKansas]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rTPKaeFbcA8

An interesting look at 3 riders finishing behind the autobus/grupetto in Stage 12.

[mapei]

Sherwenism of the day so far:

"They all have the bit between the teeth today."

[DukieInKansas]

Sherwenism of the day so far:

"They all have the bit between the teeth today."

Is it time to play Phil & Paul bingo?


I think I lost my bingo card from a few years back.

[mapei]

I think so, and "the peloton has literally exploded" should count double, along with "suitcase of courage."

Voigt was "seriously" injured today, according to CN. I really hope this isn't another Beloki situation, but I'm worried until I hear more.

[MulletMan]

I think so, and "the peloton has literally exploded" should count double, along with "suitcase of courage."

Voigt was "seriously" injured today, according to CN. I really hope this isn't another Beloki situation, but I'm worried until I hear more.

That crash was horrific! He hit the tarmac face first. Word from the hospital is that he is able to move all of his limbs... thank god. You have to love Jens Voight.

From a cold-hearted viewpoint, this is a killer for Schlek. Voight is such a horse and would have turned himself inside out going up Ventoux on the final day. Now, its Schlek-squared that needs to do the work and launch that last attack.

Contador will no lose more than 10 seconds to his biggest rivals on the ITT. The question is, can Lance be the one to get those 10 seconds or will it be Wiggins or Andy? Someone will beat Contador, but not by much.

So.... Mont Ventoux is long enough for someone to do damage. It will need to be an early attack, and the rider will have to hope that Contador is off his game a bit. Like Hinault said, if you have a bad day there you might lose 5 minutes. However, I feel like Astana is too strong to let that happen, and Contador is in too good of form.

Of course... if everyone is pissed about Vino blowing the team up, then Popo and Zubellia might say screw it and sheppard Lance about the mountain.

Intrigue, intrigue, intrigue!

[g_olaf]

That crash was horrific! He hit the tarmac face first. Word from the hospital is that he is able to move all of his limbs... thank god. You have to love Jens Voight.

That crash made my skin crawl... poor guy.


From a cold-hearted viewpoint, this is a killer for Schlek. Voight is such a horse and would have turned himself inside out going up Ventoux on the final day. Now, its Schlek-squared that needs to do the work and launch that last attack.


...especially after losing Arveson. Rough tour for Saxo bank.

[DukieInKansas]

Just thinking about the Voight crash makes me cringe. He will definitely be missed by his team. I hope he has a speedy recovery.

[roywhite]

http://www.letour.fr/2009/TDF/LIVE/us/1700/journal_etape.html

Big day for the Schleck brothers. Didn't see the race action, but followed it online.

[JasonEvans]

The Schleck brothers and Contador ran away from everyone else today. They finished a little more than 2 minutes ahead of Lance and Kloden. Wiggins was another minute back.

http://d.yimg.com/i//ng/sp/eurosport/20090722/25/f7492a732b379fcd3303db94cbf425db.jpg

The new standings have Contador 2:26 up on Andy S and 3:25 ahead of Frank. Lance is now in 4th, 3:55 back, followed by Kloden at 4:44 and Wiggins at 4:53. Nibali is another dozen or so seconds back, but I don't see him getting a podium in Paris this year.

Next up is the time-trial, which could shake things up a lot. Lance probably figures to get time, perhaps a lot of it, on the Schleck brothers in the ITT. He is certainly still eying second place overall. It will be interesting to see how fast Wiggins goes in the ITT. He is a stud in those races and may figure he can pick up huge chunks of time on the field. He may even be able to make up the minute he is behind Lance. Unless something insane happens, he is not going to catch Contador but he too may see 2nd place as something attainable. And Kloden is no slouch in the ITT. If he can keep within striking distance of Wiggins and Lance is not in great form, Kloden could find his way to the top 3 after the ITT.

So, aside from 1st place (which is all but wrapped up in my opinion), we have 5 guys racing for 2 spots on the podium in Paris. Still some very exciting stuff to happen!

--Jason "Lance and Johann are going to form a new team (http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/21072009/58/tour-de-france-armstrong-set-american-partner.html) for next year-- they are announcing it on Thursday" Evans

[g_olaf]

http://www.letour.fr/2009/TDF/LIVE/us/1700/journal_etape.html

Big day for the Schleck brothers. Didn't see the race action, but followed it online.

Fantastic stage... Question is whether Contador's attempt to attack Andy, which resulted in Kloden getting dropped will have any impact on team Astana.

God of Thunder added 12 points to his green jersey lead at intermediate sprints. A pity that Cavendish was penalized back on stage 14 -- this was a great battle.

[mapei]

Not a pity considering that Cav is a bit of a jerk. ;) And, although the offense that led to relegation was marginal, in the sprint before that he actually bumped Thor off his line but it wasn't called. So I give major props to Thor for what he did today - Cav still gets all his stage wins, maybe including Paris, which isn't exactly bad compensation.

Cancellara or Wiggins will win the TT. I don't see Alberto losing time to any of his closest competitors except for Wiggins and *possibly* Lance, but it won't be much time if any. And he beat both of them on stage 1. I think Kloden will gain some ground, too, but not on Alberto.

And then we still have the Ventoux! This race was pretty humdrum until this week, which I guess was the way they designed it. Andy will gain back on the mountain whatever he loses in the TT and then some, so I think he's looking good for #2. #3 is still a race, with Kloden, Lance, and Wiggins all in play, and maybe even Frank.

It will be very interesting to see who Johan and Lance recruit as a GC contender for their new team. I don't think Lance is realistic at this point if you want to win a grand tour, but will he tolerate having someone else on the team who can? It's hard to imagine. It's also hard to imagine Alberto putting up with all that drama again, even if he is wanted.

I am SO glad Jens is going to recover. That was horrible to watch.

[sue71]

What did Cavendish do to get a penalty?

[JasonEvans]

It will be very interesting to see who Johan and Lance recruit as a GC contender for their new team. I don't think Lance is realistic at this point if you want to win a grand tour, but will he tolerate having someone else on the team who can? It's hard to imagine. It's also hard to imagine Alberto putting up with all that drama again, even if he is wanted.


What about Levi? What about Wiggins? I'd think Garmin would kill to have Lance on their team and would gladly welcome him, Johann, and a couple other studs from Astana to form a top-tier team.

I'd love to see an "English speaking" team of Lance, Levi, Wiggins, Vande Velde, and Hincapie. What the heck, lets add Cavendish and David Millar too as long as we are having a pipe dream ;)

Too many guys with differing priorities on that team, right? Ha!

--Jason "I bet Popy and Hincapie both come with Lance and Johann" Evans

[g_olaf]

What did Cavendish do to get a penalty?

He went off his line, crowding Hushovd into the barrier. However, in his defense the barriers narrowed during the sprint. There is youtube video showing the sprint from overhead and I'm not convinced he deserved the penalty (and I'm a huge Thor fan). What is interesting is that the sprint was over a single point differential (14 pts vs 13 pts). First vs second on the final stage will by five point differential (35 vs 30) and before stage 14 Thor was ahead by 5 points. So things were shaping up to be very tight indeed. Given the penalty (Cav was denied his 14 pts), Thor was up 18, and Cav basically gave up the fight. If it had been 4-6 pt differential, how huge would the intermediate sprint points have been today!

[mapei]

I think you can pretty much count on Levi, George and maybe Popo. I don't think there has been much affection between Lance and Vaughters over the years, though - he has been a bit disbelieving about the LA aura in some ways - so I don't see the Garmin operation going over to Lance. It will be a new team entirely, probably owned by Tailwind Sports. And the problem with all the guys you named is that none of the GC guys is young. I don't see a rising star there, except Cav who is a specialist. They can probably get Basso, too, but it's hard to say how bright his future is in the sport.

Most of the current Astana guys will be looking for work, though - so I expect they will be the core of the team, just not Alberto. Some may even be under contract to Johan, since the business relationship is usually to the DS, not the sponsor.

[sue71]

I want to thank y'all for your insight on the Tour each year. I always enjoy watching it, and everyone's insight always helps, but this year since I've missed most of it, I appreciate the updates + commentary even more.

[Exiled_Devil]

What is the likelihood of a Team Livestrong? I recall Lance saying that his main motivation for returning was to build Livestrong overseas - to open up new markets for donations and cancer prevention awareness. Not sure that they have enough money to pull it off, but I would think it is a clear winner for Livestrong ot sponsor a tour team if they can.

[JasonEvans]

What is the likelihood of a Team Livestrong? I recall Lance saying that his main motivation for returning was to build Livestrong overseas - to open up new markets for donations and cancer prevention awareness. Not sure that they have enough money to pull it off, but I would think it is a clear winner for Livestrong ot sponsor a tour team if they can.

I don't think sponsoring a team is the appropriate use of a cancer charity's funds.

I could see a prominent company, like Nike perhaps, agreeing to sponsor a team and putting the Livestrong name on it. The Livestrong/Nike team would get a ton of publicity and everyone would hear the stories of how Nike was donating huge sums of money to help the Livestrong charity.

If Lance did not take a salary, he is not being paid by Astana this year, how much would it cost to finance a team? Could you get it done for a couple million or does it cost a lot more than that?

-Jason "a truly viable team would need to run in more than the TDF, of course, so there is the cost of the Giro and at least one or two other races" Evans

[BlueDevilBaby]

So, aside from 1st place (which is all but wrapped up in my opinion), we have 5 guys racing for 2 spots on the podium in Paris. Still some very exciting stuff to happen!

It's never over until Contador crosses the line in Paris. Anything can happen and is, because it's raining on the last 15 riders for the time trial. Remember Michael Rassmussen's (sp?) troubles in the time trial a few years ago? IIRC, he fell a few times and lost tons of time.

Check that the rain has stopped. Hope it stays stopped.

[JasonEvans]

Wiggins is tearing it up.

At the first check point, he had the fastest time, 19 seconds ahead of a Kloden, a guy who is a stud time-trialer. Wiggins had 9 seconds on Lance. Still waiting on the Schleck bros and Contador. Shaping up as an exciting day!

-Jason "gotta see how much Lance and Wiggins can get on the Schlecks" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Holy !#%!%^!!!

Contador is ahead of Wiggins at the first time check... and not by a little bit. He was best by 18 seconds. That is sick!! At the first time check Contador has put time on the best time-trialers in the world. It is clear who THE MAN is in this year's Tour de France.

--Jason "Frank S is slipping but Andy was only 17 second back of Lance at the first check-- very good ride so far for him" Evans

[mapei]

Andy is really hanging tough today! He's looking at his limit at the moment, though . . .

[JasonEvans]

Andy ran a great ITT for him. He only lost 15 seconds to Lance and will feel pretty comfortable about holding onto 2nd place in the Tour. The real battle will be for 3rd. Lance has it right now, but can he hold off Frank, Kloden, and Wiggins on the final climb?

-Jason "Contador won the ITT-- he's a stud and a half" Evans

[mapei]

Wow. I was rooting for Cancellara to keep first, but this is Alberto's race. Bien fait. Nice rides also by Wiggins (not quite enough for GC), Millar, and especially Andy. Good to see Moreau show good form, too. Lance was not quite as strong as I expected, but the podium is now his to keep or lose.

[roywhite]

What a worthy champion Contador is. His climbing has been terrific, and today he defeated the Olympic Time Trial champion in Cancellera.

Love to see Lance hang on to 3rd, but I'd guess he won't be able to hold off the other challengers Saturday on the mountain.

[camion]

With Armstrong, Kloden, Wiggins and F. Schleck all within about 30 seconds of each other the race for third is going to be a real brawl. Factor in that that Astana and Saxo Bank each have a podium finisher and super climber in the mix and things should be really interesting. How much can team strategy affect the outcome and at what point will it just be which of the four is strongest on Mont Ventoux?

Must see TV for sure.

[Cavlaw]

Contador should be comfortable in yellow now, and perhaps this means he'll accept the team strategy of trying to get Armstrong and/or Kloden onto the podium behind him now.

An Astana sweep has become unlikely as it looks like A. Schleck probably hold onto second and it would be very difficult to bump him all the way to fourth.

[JasonEvans]

Standings--

Contador
A Schleck +4:11
Armstrong + 5:25
Wiggins + 5:36
Kloden + 5:38
F Schleck +5:59


Nibaldi and Vande Velde come next. While they may be able to put time on one or two of the guys ahead of them, no way they make up 2+ minutes on enough of those guys to get a podium.

I doubt you will see Lance mount an attack on Mount Ventoux. He will just try to stay on the wheels of Bradley, Kloden, and especially Frank S. I suspect Lance sees Frank as the biggest challenger.

Worth noting that if not for the Team Time Trial, Frank would be third right now.

http://d.yimg.com/a/p/sp/getty/a5/fullj.0b58effab02a8c6c62d21b120226c2a0/0b58effab02a8c6c62d21b120226c2a0-getty-88232154bl005_tour_de_franc.jpg

--Jason "worth noting-- Lance's new team next year will be sponsored by Radio Shack (http://www.velonews.com/article/95712/lance-armstrong-to-race-for-team-radioshack-in-2010)" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Something kinda interesting happened today.

The Peleton got broken up a great deal on the last climb of the day. As a result, many of the domestiques were shed and it was a far smaller peleton as they approached the finish. All the big sprinters were there and the GC contenders as well, but it was a smaller than usual group.

Anyway, as the sprinters took off for the finish line in the final few hundred meters, the GC guys let them run away... except for Lance. He is always attentive to little seconds here or there. So, he made sure to stay with the sprinters and, as a result, he gained 4 seconds on all the other GC guys.

Now, 4 seconds means nothing to Contador but it could make a difference in the race for third place. I think the odds are that Mount Vontoux shreds the field so much that 4 seconds won't matter, but stranger things have happened.

--Jason "Wiggins, especially, may have trouble getting 15+ seconds on Lance tomorrow" Evans

[mapei]

Lance will have to crack to slip off the podium - I think it's unlikely, though possible if Frank or (less likely) Wiggins has a great day.

But I'm not sure that anyone other than Lance is actually in the race. I mean, I've been watching the Versus coverage, and . . .

[-jk]

U
Lance will have to crack to slip off the podium - I think it's unlikely, though possible if Frank or (less likely) Wiggins has a great day.
H
But I'm not sure that anyone other than Lance is actually in the race. I mean, I've been watching the Versus coverage, and . . .

C'mon - be nice. Lance's bankrolled Versus for years...

And let's face it, Lance's been a good story for years, too. And he's still capitalizing (in the business sense) from it: As I understand it, he's riding for free just to promote cancer awareness and raise money for his cancer research foundation.

Seems a laudable goal to me. Even if he hasn't a chance of winning this year. (Imagine if he hadn't retired: One, maybe two, more wins. He's doing amazingly well for an old fart. With a team focused around him...)

-jk

[camion]

It's on!! The Mont Ventoux stage.

Watch it online here: http://www.atdhe.net/7528/watch-le-tour-de-france-2009

For those who don't catch it this morning it will be repeated on the Versus channel several times during the day.

[JasonEvans]

...and it is done.

Lance held onto 3rd and he did it quite comfortably. There were big winds at the top of the Vontoux which made attacks more difficult. The Schleck brothers tried several attacks but never even came close to dropping Contador or Armstrong. Wiggins cracked a bit but it was late enough so that he held onto 4th place. Kloden had trouble and was never much of a factor.

--Jason "I look forward to seeing Lance versus Andy and Alberto next year when Lance actually trains hard to try to win" Evans

[mapei]

Well, don't forget that those guys are still improving and LA will be a year older. He might not be on the podium this year but for the TTT and split on stage 3. He rode a solid race, and got better on the climbs toward the end, but his ITT was mediocre. If Andy and Alberto had wanted to ride away instead of protecting/helping teammates, they could have taken more minutes today.

For most Americans, only Lance and other Americans matter in international sports, but that's a shame IMO.

Garate had a courageous, earned win today, something like 170k out in front. He wasn't marked, true, but there was actually a stage winner today who had a heck of a ride. If I were starting a team I'd snag Nibali in a heartbeat - he has a great future. And maybe Martin and Farrar, too.

Don't be surprised if Alberto rides for Garmin next year.

[Exiled_Devil]

The one thing about Lance's success that makes next year hopeful was the fact that his training was limited by the collar bone break a few months back. I assume that with a full course of training he will do better.

Ad for today's ride, I have to say I was impressed and engrossed at the three-team interaction with Saxo, Garmin and Astana at the foot of Ventoux. I found that more compelling than the break away and the ultimate stage winner.

I'll admit to rooting for US riders, but I think the real bias is towards the riders who are regularly in GC contention (and maybe the Green/polka dot). Those are the names we hear. I know that besides Lance, over the years I have been a fan of Basso, McEwen, Vinokourov, the Schleck brothers, and Contador. I have always disliked Ulrich, for some reason (mean face German + Lance's rival?) For me - a casual fan 11 months out of the year - its hard ot exctied for the names I hear little about.

Here's an interesting odds question - what's more likely to happen, Lance on the podium or two Schleck brothers on the podium?

And Astana won the team time by 22 minutes...I'm not sure if that was dominant or not, but it did fall to form (Astana - Garmin - Saxo was the team finish.)

[mapei]

In the TTT, Astana beat Garmin by 18 seconds and Saxo by 40. And in the stage 3 split, Lance got 41 on everybody else. So that's 81 seconds on Saxo from those two stages that weren't head-to-head among the contenders. They are still legit - they represent earned race results - but are somewhat distorting compared to most years in the Tour.

Without that time, LA would have been 5th going into the Ventoux stage, and he would have had to attack Frank and Wiggins rather than defend. Still might have done it, but the dynamics would have been different.

Next year I might predict Lance again in a higher place on GC than Frank, but neither of them on the podium.

Great point about the teams at the foot of the mountain! God they were all at their limits. O'Grady and Cancellara were studs, and Astanas domestiques have been great all Tour.

You can make a case that either Lance or Alberto would have done even better time-wise this year if either had a fully committed team and DS in support, but it was painfully obvious that they didn't. Other rumors for Alberto next year are Caisse d'Epargne (Valverde) and a new team being formed by a Spanish formula 1 rider. The new team might be a year away, though.

[mapei]

Without that time, LA would have been 5th going into the Ventoux stage, and he would have had to attack Frank and Wiggins rather than defend.

Whoops, I miscalculated. Actually he would have been sixth, behind his teammate Kloden as well. That certainly would have tested his loyalties.

[JasonEvans]

Whoops, I miscalculated. Actually he would have been sixth, behind his teammate Kloden as well. That certainly would have tested his loyalties.

You are gonna have to explain that math to me. Lance finished 1:20 ahead of Kloden in the final standings. Aside from the strange blip in stage 3 that gave Lance 41 seconds on Kloden, where else are you taking time away from Lance? Please explain.

The whole race for the podiums plays out differently if Lance is in attack versus protect mode the past few days. It is a silly argument. What's more, the TTT argument is a little silly as it supposes that Lance played no role in the Astana success in the TTT, which is absurd.

Lance will be the leader of the Radio Shack team next year and it is going to be a very, very strong team I bet. Lance and Johann will load it up with the best domestiques in the Tour (George, Poppy, and perhaps Levi). Lance will be a very significant GC challenger next year. Beating Andy and Alberto will be tough but not impossible... even at his age.

--Jason "rooting for the old guy/cancer survivor is not jingoistic" Evans

[camion]

In the TTT, Astana beat Garmin by 18 seconds and Saxo by 40. And in the stage 3 split, Lance got 41 on everybody else. So that's 81 seconds on Saxo from those two stages that weren't head-to-head among the contenders. They are still legit - they represent earned race results - but are somewhat distorting compared to most years in the Tour.

Without that time, LA would have been 5th going into the Ventoux stage, and he would have had to attack Frank and Wiggins rather than defend. Still might have done it, but the dynamics would have been different.


If you're going to take time from Lance in those stages then you should give back some time in other stages. Twice he played the loyal teammate. When Contador attacked following the stage 3 split, Lance marked the other contenders instead of following. Also, when the Schlecks attacked together with Contador and Kloden marking them, Lance stayed behind and marked Wiggins, losing two minutes. He could likely have gained significant time in those two stages if he had been riding for himself.

Contador and Andy Schleck were pretty clearly the two best riders this year. IMO Lance was a solid third.

The main thing Lance has going against him is age, and a young Contador. I think he can still reach the podium, but that he has seen his last TDF overall win. I fear that Andy Schleck will be fated to several second places finishes in the future as I think that, barring misfortune, Contador will win several GC jerseys.

[mapei]

You are gonna have to explain that math to me. Lance finished 1:20 ahead of Kloden in the final standings. Aside from the strange blip in stage 3 that gave Lance 41 seconds on Kloden, where else are you taking time away from Lance? Please explain.

I was saying that Lance would have been 6th going into today's stage, so that he would have had to attack his teammate to move up. Am I wrong? It certainly would have been 5th if not sixth.

I guess we can all play the "if" games. I agree strongly that Alberto and Andy were the top 2. Who can argue that? After that I think it was a lot closer - Wiggo better in the early mountains, Lance better in the late mountains, Wiggo better in the ITT, Lance better in the TTT, Kloden better early & holding back on a couple of stages to help Lance, Lance better late, etc.

Lance will have a good team next year and there is every reason to think he will be competitive for top 10, maybe even top 5. But if Alberto has strong team loyalty and strong loyalty from his director, that will be a different factor, too. (You think Bruyneel would have ordered his guys to pull hard on stage 3 if it had been Lance caught behind rather than Alberto?) I think he easily could have won by a bigger margin this year if, say, he had the kind of support Lance had with Discovery. But those are all more ifs; I guess that's what sports fans do. :)

[Exiled_Devil]

I was saying that Lance would have been 6th going into today's stage, so that he would have had to attack his teammate to move up. Am I wrong? It certainly would have been 5th if not sixth.

I guess we can all play the "if" games. I agree strongly that Alberto and Andy were the top 2. Who can argue that? After that I think it was a lot closer - Wiggo better in the early mountains, Lance better in the late mountains, Wiggo better in the ITT, Lance better in the TTT, Kloden better early & holding back on a couple of stages to help Lance, Lance better late, etc.

Lance will have a good team next year and there is every reason to think he will be competitive for top 10, maybe even top 5. But if Alberto has strong team loyalty and strong loyalty from his director, that will be a different factor, too. (You think Bruyneel would have ordered his guys to pull hard on stage 3 if it had been Lance caught behind rather than Alberto?) I think he easily could have won by a bigger margin this year if, say, he had the kind of support Lance had with Discovery. But those are all more ifs; I guess that's what sports fans do. :)

I hear that Horvath is going to ride for a NZ team next year, and he is dropping threes while climbing HC's. :)


In all seriousness, I think that you are right in speculating about Bruyneel's allegiance to anyone other than Lance, but I agree with the other posters that you may be underestimating how much Lance was riding support instead of lead as well.

On that point, my wife said that the greatest thing about the tour this year for Lance was how he rode as a supporting teamate so well and still managed to place on the podium. More the fact that this person who was the star played the second fiddle without problems as soon as Contador showed himself to be the better rider. And his post-ride interviews showed that attitude as well.

[mapei]

I hear that Horvath is going to ride for a NZ team next year, and he is dropping threes while climbing HC's. :)

In all seriousness, I think that you are right in speculating about Bruyneel's allegiance to anyone other than Lance, but I agree with the other posters that you may be underestimating how much Lance was riding support instead of lead as well.

On that point, my wife said that the greatest thing about the tour this year for Lance was how he rode as a supporting teamate so well and still managed to place on the podium. More the fact that this person who was the star played the second fiddle without problems as soon as Contador showed himself to be the better rider. And his post-ride interviews showed that attitude as well.

I remember one day when he was clearly riding support - it looked like he eased off the pace when he saw that Wiggins was covering his attempts to bridge up. On other tough days I think he was pretty much at his limit. But you could be right.

I guess I'm the only one who was bothered by stage 3, when it sure looked like LA was riding for himself. Alberto had no trouble taking the time back, but I thought it was a little weird that he was criticized for basically riding aggressively without waiting for teammates, when Lance did the same on stage 3 this year and in every other Tour he rode as team leader. I only remember one year and one stage where he eased up, for Heras; otherwise no one was more aggressive on mountain finishes. In any case Alberto certainly held back today; he could have won, probably, if he hadn't ridden to protect Lance.

There are some interesting stories in the Brit press that add insight. Lance says he could have won last year (I assume he means if he had been eligible to ride but not Alberto), but this year Alberto would have won even if Lance has been at his peak winning 2001 form. He also says he's mellowing out some:

http://www.thetimes.co.za/PrintEdition/Sport/Article.aspx?id=1039758

In this one, there are some good insights on the Lance/Alberto/Johan dynamic:

http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/sport/Richard-Moore-Loathed-leader-left.5494298.jp

Another thought for next year: Basso will be back, riding with a Liquigas team that was very strong this year. The plot thickens.

Here's an excerpt from a post in another forum on today's stage that I think is a really nice summation of the day:


I saw Alberto riding very smart, and Andy trying to do everything he could to shake Alberto. I saw Lance marking every move that Frank, via Andy instigated. I saw Kloden dropped and recovered, dropped and recovered. I saw a tenacious Bradley cling on, get dropped, clawing back, getting spun off and still finishing to protect his high GC.

I saw a break with little hope of surviving yet they did, weathered old fellow Juan-Manuel beating out the young whipper-snapper Tony for all the glory. I saw very aggressive team tactics at the foot of one of the nastiest climbs by three teams. I saw members of teams relegated to second-tier status win the team race. In fact I saw the already determined "mountain-goat-king" trying to win the stage.

Meanwhile, go Horvath! And Matt C, and Patrick, who I hear will all be riding for Columbia next year, maybe even this year in the Vuelta. :cool:

[JasonEvans]

There are some interesting stories in the Brit press that add insight. Lance says he could have won last year (I assume he means if he had been eligible to ride but not Alberto), but this year Alberto would have won even if Lance has been at his peak winning 2001 form. He also says he's mellowing out some:


I saw the quote about Lance thinking Contador was too good for even Lance-in-his-prime. I think that may be a function of Lance refusing to recognize that he is not all that close to being the rider he was a decade ago.

Contador is a great rider and a fine champion. If he gets on a decent team, I won't be at all surprise if he goes on a multi-year streak of wins at this point.

But, I do not buy the notion that he is better than Lance was in his prime. I would love to see that race, though, that's for sure.

--Jason "Vinny returns as head of Astana next year... gonna be a great field, I expect" Evans

[Bostondevil]

I followed the Tour de France more closely this year than I ever have before. Very exciting stuff. Luckily I wasn't too invested cause I didn't know any of the players besides Lance. I just loved the coverage and watching it and listening to the analysis of an event I don't fully understand. They reeled me in, I'll be back. (I only want to listen to the British guys do coverage though, it makes no sense to me with an American accent. ;))