Survivor watchers, chime in!

[JasonEvans]

I am going to Tivo tonight's Survivor and will not get to watch it until tomorrow or the weekend.

My challenge to the other Survivor fans on the DBR is to have a lively discussion going about the show when I check back in on this thread in a couple days. Think ya'll can do it?

-Jason "I am betting that Kota wins immunity again and sugar gets the boot without realizing that they are targeting her and her idol-- we'll see" Evans

[DukePA]

I am going to Tivo tonight's Survivor and will not get to watch it until tomorrow or the weekend.

My challenge to the other Survivor fans on the DBR is to have a lively discussion going about the show when I check back in on this thread in a couple days. Think ya'll can do it?

-Jason "I am betting that Kota wins immunity again and sugar gets the boot without realizing that they are targeting her and her idol-- we'll see" Evans

The lively discussion begins! I also think Kota will win immunity, but that Sugar will realize that she and the idol are targeted.

[DukeUsul]

Fang: worst tribe ever?

[JasonEvans]

Fang: worst tribe ever?

Ok, my evening changed and I was able to watch last night...

Fang is waaay up there. But they are not as bad as Uulong in Palau. They were the tribe that got completely eliminated-- lost every single challenge until Stephanie and Bobby John had to battle each other in a make-fire-the-fastest elimination challenge. Remember that?

I think a ton of the blame for Fang's woes has to fall to Crystal, who pretends to be as strong as a man but who has broken down and been a burden at almost all the challenges. Meanwhile, she grouses and complains about losing and is a bee-yatch back at camp flashing her 'tude everywhere. Thankfully, I suspect she will soon be gone either pre-merge or very soon after.

Voting Kelly out was 100% the right thing to do. I could not see them making any other move. This tribe has been toast twice thanks to bad picking. At the beginning and at the switch, they grouped themselves in such a way as to be very weak physically and it constantly comes back to haunt them. When they picked Kelly over Bob in the tribe switch, you knew they were toast. At least now --minus weak Kelly-- they are getting close to being physically able to compete... close.

http://wwwimage.cbs.com/cms/files/gallerix/albums/26/22034/full/97232_D16188.jpg

Ace is too haughty and tried to do waay too much control at the end of the latest challenge, that was obvious. I still think Matty is smart to ally himself with Ace. First of all, Ace is another physical threat who will be quickly targeted post-merge. Secondly, everyone knows Ace cannot be trusted so it is good to be close to him because it is easy to turn people against him. The key to Survivor on a weak tribe is to make sure there is always someone else's head on the chopping block ahead of yours. For Matty, that person is Ace. Matty needs to stay close to Ace because as soon as Matty feels real pressure he can throw Ace under the bus and Matty gets to survive one more episode that way.

That said, no one in Fang is in a good position. We are now just a couple eliminations away from the merge. It looks like both eliminations may come this coming week! No matter what, this means that Fang will be the lesser tribe in the merged group.

Here is how I see it going post-merge--

Bob, Charlie, Marcus, and Corine (yes, I had to look her name up) who have been on Kota the whole time will dominate the game from a voting standpoint. I am confident that Randy is firmly in their back pocket and I think Ace and Sugar (if they survive to the merge, and I think at least one of them will just not sure which) will try to get back together with them once the tribes are combined. They will pick off the physical threats Matty, Crystal, and perhaps Ace fairly quickly. Dan, the annoying eater, and Kenny will get the boot somwhere in here too, I suspect. It starts to get complicated at that point.

http://wwwimage.cbs.com/cms/files/gallerix/albums/26/22034/full/97232_D15183.jpg

When you get down to about 6 or 7 people, alliances can start shifting cause people start wondering more about who they are going to go up against in the final vote. Sugar and her immunity idol, if she still is around and still has it, could play a big role at this point. I think the silent and weak Susie could become a huge swing vote and people may eye her as a perfect person to take to the end. This often happens with undeserving, weak females. I suspect that no one will want to face the charming older guy, Bob, in the finals but maybe he can get together with some of the weaker players like Sugar and Susie and maybe Corine to get rid of physically imposing Marcus (which would make Charlie cry). I am betting no one wants to go up against Marcus in the late challenges or the final jury vote. Randy could become a key player. He seems like a guy who is good at making enemies, but he may be a crucial swing vote and he is certainly a schemer. I also think he sees what is going one really well. He is someone folks will want to go up against in the final jury too.

Anyway, if I had to pick a final four right now, I am gonna go with-- Susie, Corine, Bob, and Charlie or Randy. Bob will be the sentimental favorite to win it all but I am not sure he will get there. Watch out for a Corine win.

http://wwwimage.cbs.com/cms/files/gallerix/albums/26/22034/full/97232_D15945.jpghttp://wwwimage.cbs.com/cms/files/gallerix/albums/26/22034/full/97232_D15483.jpg

--Jason "wild speculation-- for sure" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Props on the great discussion guys. Ya'll rock.

--Jason ":mad::confused::mad:" Evans

[DevilAlumna]

Survivor's still on the air? Is this its 40th season? Are they still on CBS, or has it moved downstream to like the ABC Family channel? ;)

Sorry, JE, I haven't watched the show since 2000....

[JasonEvans]

Survivor's still on the air? Is this its 40th season? Are they still on CBS, or has it moved downstream to like the ABC Family channel? ;)

Sorry, JE, I haven't watched the show since 2000....

You've missed some good stuff, though I have to admit that show now follows a very predictable pattern. It is rare for something truly original to happen, though last season (fans vs. faves) had some great moments involving the use (or lack thereof) of the immunity idol.

Survivor still gets fairly strong ratings. It is among the 15 or so top shows on TV pretty consistently, which is good. The demographics are ok, but not great as it skews a bit older. It easily wins its timeslot at 8pm on Thursdays (a quite lucrative timeslot).

Still there is talk that Survivor only has a couple seasons left. Jeff Probst is said to be tiring of it and its is hardly the cultural phenomenon it once was. I am betting they do something somewhat dramatic next year to send it out-- maybe another true all-star sorta setup or, and I think this would be very cool, a larger format with a trio of teams or something else that shakes things up in a significant fashion.

We'll see. It does remain an extremely lucrative part of CBS' family.

--Jason "at least you -- a non-viewer -- said something. The viewers in this forum suck!" Evans

[DevilAlumna]

Survivor still gets fairly strong ratings. It is among the 15 or so top shows on TV pretty consistently, which is good. The demographics are ok, but not great as it skews a bit older. It easily wins its timeslot at 8pm on Thursdays (a quite lucrative timeslot).


This comment reminded me of an article on AMC's "Mad Men," - that for its low numbers, it's having a great impact in other cultural realms.

http://www.salon.com/wires/ap/entertainment/2008/10/23/D9409C800_ap_on_tv_mad_men/index.html


About 1.5 million U.S. viewers tune in weekly, with another half-million watching later on DVRs. That compares with the 19 million-plus audience for last week's No. 1 program, "CSI: Crime Scene Investigation" on CBS.


I'm a Mad Men watcher; can't think of the last CBS show I followed regularly.

[mkirsh]

I haven't had time on thursdays to watch regularly and instead have been letting the episodes pile up on the dvr, but I did get caught up through a mini-marathon this weekend.

Unfortunately, these two tribes are so mismatched that it is pretty easy to see how this will play out, with Fang continuing to lose, and Marcus-Charlie-Corrine having a very dominant position in their tribe and once the merge happens (assuming they can keep Randy, Dan, and Bob). The only things that could derail this would be the producers throwing some more wrenches at them to shake things up (another tribe shuffle, more immunity idols, rewards with picking one or 2 people to share, etc), or the tribe in control getting too confident and starting to think way ahead to the final 2/3 and backstabbing their allies early. I also agree with you that Randy may end up as a key player as he's headed for the "fifth member of either alliance and therefore the vital swing-vote" role, if he can pull it off successfully.

I was pretty frustrated by Fang blowing the opportunity to flush the immunity idol in last week's vote when they voted out GC. At that point, Matty, Crystal, Kenny, and Kelly should have said "Sugar, we know you have the idol and we want it out of the game - we are voting for you tonight." At that point they could have still voted for GC, but Sugar would have had to either call their bluff (in which case nothing really lost) or played the idol to be safe. Now with GC and Kelly gone, Sugar and Ace are in a much stronger position, even though teasers make it seem that Sugar is ready to turn on Ace (and his phony Connecticuit-British accent which drives me crazy - who does he think he is, Madonna?).

As for the survivor finale, I would love it if they brought back every winner (or even every final 2/3) for a Survivor: Champions Edition send off, but would imagine that would be logistically impossible.

[JasonEvans]

I was pretty frustrated by Fang blowing the opportunity to flush the immunity idol in last week's vote when they voted out GC. At that point, Matty, Crystal, Kenny, and Kelly should have said "Sugar, we know you have the idol and we want it out of the game - we are voting for you tonight." At that point they could have still voted for GC, but Sugar would have had to either call their bluff (in which case nothing really lost) or played the idol to be safe. Now with GC and Kelly gone, Sugar and Ace are in a much stronger position, even though teasers make it seem that Sugar is ready to turn on Ace (and his phony Connecticuit-British accent which drives me crazy - who does he think he is, Madonna?).


Of course, that strategy begs the question -- why would they want the immunity idol no longer in play? They are members of a tribe that is rapidly going down the tubes. They are almost certainly going to enter the merge with fewer members and in a tough position versus the core of the Kota alliance. The idol is something that could easily work in their favor and help them to gain control of the game.

The better move would be to go to Sugar and say, "we know you have the idol. That is great!! Congrats! We were considering voting you out to either take the idol out of play or force you to use it, but we have a better idea now. Lets work together and we can use the idol after the merge to get rid of those folks in Kota who we know are going to pick you and the rest of us off. If you agree to do this, then we will agree not to vote you out and force you to use the idol. If you agree to this and we protect you but you then backstab us by not using the idol to the benefit of this entire group, then it would be the ultimate backstab and you can rest assured that none of us will ever vote for you to win the game. We will actively lobby against you to other members of the jury too."

Now that is the kind of strategic thinking you never see players on Survivor use (except for Rich, the ultimate god of Survivor).

--Jason "Sugar could go really far in this game if she plays it right" Evans

[JasonEvans]

As for the survivor finale, I would love it if they brought back every winner (or even every final 2/3) for a Survivor: Champions Edition send off, but would imagine that would be logistically impossible.

When they did Survivor All-stars, the problem for the past winners was that everyone said, "They already won so they are undeserving and we must vote them out early." I hated that.

I am with you that it would be cool to invite back all the previous winners. If you only had past winners on the show, the "we can't let someone win again" thing would go away as a motivation. It would be a fabulous way for the show to go out.

This is the 17th version of the show. We get #18 in the spring. That means there are enough winners so that even if a couple of them turned you down you could still have enough for a good show. Heck, I think they should not even bother to invite Vecepia, who may have been the least interesting winner ever.

--Jason "make first prize 2.5 million dollars-- the biggest prize in the history of reality TV" Evans

[mkirsh]

Your point on Fang hanging onto the idol and using it post merge is interesting, but I still think that if I were Kenny, Crystal, or Matty, I think I would prefer that the idol be used for a few reasons: first, I would expect my tribe to continue to lose reward challenges, so if for some reason the other tribe were to send me to exile I would love to be able to look for an idol rather than sit by myself for a day. Second, I would assume that we're going to lose the next 2-4 immunity challenges before the merge, and I need to survive until the merge, and someone else having the idol makes my chances worse. Third, I have no idea how many allies Sugar and/or Ace have with their old tribe, so after the merge I may be on the outside of that alliance looking in, and would not want them to have the idol as well.

Basically, I think the Fang tribe probably needs to worry about short term survival more than post merge strategy, and in that regard the idol is a threat. Agree with you that if the merger is close (and it may be given how one sided the challenges have been) they do have a chance to use the idol to go far, but I think it may be too risky for them to plan that far in advance, and requires a lot of coordination and trust which I don't really see from the Fang tribe. Actually, the more I think about it, I can't recall anyone really using the idol effectively other than Yul. Everyone else who has it seems to get blindsided and sent home early (especially last season), but there may have been some seasons that I missed or am forgetting where it was more of a positive.

Changing gears, I think Kenny may be a sleeper to go far. He hasn't been close to the chopping block yet, is non-threatening enough that someone might want to go against him in the final two, and I think he's smart enough to understand what's going on around him and keep under the radar.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

When they did Survivor All-stars, the problem for the past winners was that everyone said, "They already won so they are undeserving and we must vote them out early." I hated that.

I am with you that it would be cool to invite back all the previous winners. If you only had past winners on the show, the "we can't let someone win again" thing would go away as a motivation. It would be a fabulous way for the show to go out.

This is the 17th version of the show. We get #18 in the spring. That means there are enough winners so that even if a couple of them turned you down you could still have enough for a good show. Heck, I think they should not even bother to invite Vecepia, who may have been the least interesting winner ever.

--Jason "make first prize 2.5 million dollars-- the biggest prize in the history of reality TV" Evans

Jason, I like your ideas for the series finale - winners only. Will Richard Hatch be out of jail by then? I sure would hate for him to miss it!

[JasonEvans]

Actually, the more I think about it, I can't recall anyone really using the idol effectively other than Yul. Everyone else who has it seems to get blindsided and sent home early (especially last season), but there may have been some seasons that I missed or am forgetting where it was more of a positive.

Well, they changed the rules on the idol so that you had to use it before the votes were read, not after you were already voted out. When it could be used after the votes it was a super-powerful tool. I recall Terry on Survivor 12:Panama getting the idol and surviving a lot longer than he probably should have because everyone was afraid to vote him out. He ended up finishing 3rd because he could no longer play the idol at that point.

The next season was the one where Yul got the idol and it basically made him the most powerful person in the game and steered him to victory. I think that is when they decided to make the idol a little less powerful.

Gary Hogeboom successfully used the idol to save himself in Guatemala. That was very well done as I don't even think the audience at home knew he had it when he played it.

But, you are correct that in recent seasons possession of the idol has put a real target on your back. You gotta know how to use it -- and I think you either need to be incredibly open about having it and using it or (probably better) you need to be 100% quiet about it and TELL NO ONE and keep it hidden.


Changing gears, I think Kenny may be a sleeper to go far. He hasn't been close to the chopping block yet, is non-threatening enough that someone might want to go against him in the final two, and I think he's smart enough to understand what's going on around him and keep under the radar.

Yeah, I can see Kenny being the person from Fang that survives the longest. He is not a physical threat in any way and he seems to be a smart player from the standpoint of seeing what is going on, making friends, and being persuasive. It appears he is starting to get in tight with Sugar, which would be a powerful thing.

That said, I see no way he can break the solid alliance over in Kota that will control the game post-merge. He will last until the final 7 or so, but unless Kota tears itself apart, he will have a hard time going further than that.

Crystal, by the way, is toast the moment there is a merge and perhaps even sooner. She seems like a physical threat and she is a real rhymes-with-witch around camp.

--Jason "I think Randy will take joy in voting Crystal off ASAP" Evans

[JasonEvans]

One of the things I hate about Survivor is that the show is always working so hard to trick you with the vote that whenever anything looks really obvious, it is almost always a misdirection.

So, when they revealed Marcus' apparently fatal vote for Susie, I paused my DVR and said to my wife, "well, that means Dan is toast." Sure enough, moments later I was proved correct.

I must say at first blush I really liked the fact that Marcus, Corinne, and Charlie (the trio that I see as controlling the game at this moment) were strategic enough to pick Dan as the guy to take out but to also have a backup plan by putting some votes toward Susie just in case Dan did have the immunity idol. It appeared to be good strategic decision-making on their part. But, in retrospect, I am not so sure.

Is it possible that they alienated Susie by throwing 3 votes her way? Did their votes against her show her that they cannot be trusted and perhaps set the stage for her to go back with Crystal, Matty, and Ken -- who were her original tribe-mates? If she defects to the other side (who probably have Sugar with them as well), that makes the voting block split 5-to-5.

And that is how Randy suddenly becomes the game's king-maker.

Randy, who would stab anyone in the back to get ahead in the game, is gonna realize that if he can get one person from Kota to be with him -- whether it be Bob or Susie, he can swing things from one side to the other. He must know that he is, at best, the #4 guy in a group of very strong players if he stays in an alliance with Macus, Corine, Matty, and Bob. Might he be better off as part of a group with weaklings and difficult-to-like people such as Susie, Crystal, Ken, and Sugar. Plus, that is a group he can lead and potentially dominate mentally. It might be very tempting to him.

We'll see how it turns out. It would appear a merge is coming this week and the merge is the time things get really shaken up some of the time.

--Jason "talking to myself because the rest of ya'll are mostly silent ;) " Evans

[riverside6]

I'm loving the analysis, but I really can't pick that game apart like you can, but I'll try. I really think the two people controlling the game from a strategic standpoint are Randy and Corinne. If Randy could make a final two agreement with her, I think he would be sitting pretty. Corinne appears to be the person who isn't tactful enough to get votes in the end while Randy will come off as the guy just playing the game.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

I'm loving the analysis, but I really can't pick that game apart like you can

Jason, I'm with Riverside. Keep up the analysis. I watch for the enjoyment and don' try to out think the writers. Oh, wait, that really has more to do with Lost (and formerly Heroes) than Survivor. But I enjoy reading your thoughts afterwards.

[JasonEvans]

I'm loving the analysis, but I really can't pick that game apart like you can, but I'll try. I really think the two people controlling the game from a strategic standpoint are Randy and Corinne. If Randy could make a final two agreement with her, I think he would be sitting pretty. Corinne appears to be the person who isn't tactful enough to get votes in the end while Randy will come off as the guy just playing the game.

Firstly, thanks to the folks who say they enjoy my analysis. I will keep it up. I am nothing if not verbose, eh?

As for your thoughts on Randy and Corine-- hmmm. I could see that as an interesting possibility. The thing that could really work for Randy there is that it would sorta require Corine to turn on Marcus and Charlie at some point late in the game. Those three, I think, feel so solid that if Corine went with Randy it would feel like a betrayal and could swing more votes toward Randy. Then again, Randy has to wonder if Corine can be trusted.

Randy has a real problem at the end, I think, because he has played the mean bad guy so much. I mean, the folks currently on Fang who keep on losing challenges must hate him because he has taunted them left and right. I cannot see Crystal ever voting for Randy for the million $, no matter who Randy is running against. If Randy sticks with the Kota group then there will be a lot of folks from Fang on the jury, especially if we get a 3-person-final group as they have done several times recently.

One more thing-- why would Corine make this deal with Randy? What does she gain from it? She strikes me as a pretty savvy player. Making a finals deal with Randy is at least a mild betrayal of Charlie and Marcus. I see nothing in it for her -- unless she suspects that Randy is defecting to the other side and going to vote her alliance out. If she suspects that I think there are far better ways of dealing with it than making a deal with the person stabbing you in the back (Randy).

By the way, the person who is going to last a while at this point is Ken. He is not at all of a physical threat post-merge so no one will target him for a vote out (Crystal and Matty are toast unless they can get someone to flip). I think Sugar will have a target on her back too because everyone is going to know that she has the idol. I also like that Ken can lie with a straight face and be really convincing about it. His lie to Sugar this past week was just outlandish enough for her to turn on Ace but just believable enough to get her to buy it. Players who can do that are a force to be reckoned with in this game-- that's for sure.

One last thing-- I really want Crystal gone soon. Her strange tirade at tribal about spilling the rice and no one getting mad at her about it was one of the most bizarre tribal council confessions I have ever seen. It is up there with Sue Hawk's story about the snake dying by the side of the road or something like that.

--Jason "sad to see Ace and his fake accent gone-- he was a competitor even if he was absurdly cocky" Evans

[mr. synellinden]

I read an interesting comment from Probst's blog (http://popwatch.ew.com/popwatch/2008/10/jeff-probst-b-3.html)which suggests that there will be some sort of interesting twist this week - most likely about the merge.

Next week we finally pull one over on this group of Survivors. A small victory, but it felt so good that I want to brag about it early. I think you'll love it and you will shake your head in amazement at the "never happened before" moment that occurs as a result.

I also read a few months ago where he said that idol play this season was the dumbest in the history of the game. Considering James got voted out with two in his pocket, that's a big statement.

I like Bob's position right now. If the merge is at 9, it will be either 6-3 for Kota or 5-4 for Kota. Either way, Bob is likely to be #5 on the Kota alliance list. If he recognizes he is #5, Bob could control the game - if it's a 5-4 split, he could switch to the Fang 4 and start picking off the Kota alliance. Unfortunately, this will mean Crystal stays around for a while. But it will put Bob as the Cirie of the season - the swing vote at the 9 person mark and the 5 person mark.

Even if the merge is a 6-3 split. Bob would still be #5 in Kota and could be a swing vote if Corrinne realizes at 5 that she can't beat Marcus - she, Randy and Bob could pick off Marcus and Charlie.

I think the wild card in the game right now is Sugar and how the idol could alter things.

[JasonEvans]

I just don't think anyone will voluntarily take Bob with them to the end. He is a dead cinch to win if he gets to the finals... unless he starts really stabbing people in the back mercilessly, which just does not seem to be his character.

Still, I think Bob may stick around a while as we have gotten to know very little of him so far and he seems to be a fairly intriguing character. The editing of the show so far has focused so much on Fang I feel like we really do not know many of the Kota members very well at all. If you subscribe to the belief that everyone gets some kind of story arc on the show-- especially someone who has been on this long and who appears to be interesting, then I think Bob is at least a couple weeks away from being eliminated.

The members of Kota who have gotten a good deal of screen time so far are Randy, Corine, and maybe Susie and Marcus. Bob and Charlie have been side-characters so far. Recall that we saw a fair amount of Dan being annoying and paranoid the past couple weeks before he was voted off this week. That is yet another reason why I thought he was more likely to go than Susie, who we had only barely met.

We have seen tons of everyone in Fang, so they are all in potential danger.

I had not heard Probst comment about tricking the contestants. Perhaps they will do something where the tribes think there is a merge but there is not or where they think they are competing for tribal immunity but it is really individual immunity. Hmmmm. Something new would be nice, that's for sure.

You know what would be cool? A combined individual and tribal immunity where the winning tribe got to vote off a member of the losing tribe - though some member (s) of the losing tribe could win some individual immunity. Wow, that would really shake up the game!

As for the immunity idol being played strangely, he may be talking about Sugar giving it to Ace!!! I sorta can't believe he just put it in his bag where she could get it back. He should hidden it from her too ;)

-Jason "if the other folks in your tribe can look for the idol in your stuff, can they steal it from you too?" Evans

[JasonEvans]

I just realized I am such an idiot!! Want to know something that has never happened before that would throw things for a total loop?! Another tribal shuffle. We are down to 10 contestants. They could easily shuffle the tribes again before a formal merge. They could also have everyone live at the same location but in two different tribal groups.

--Jason "hmmm, I like this-- and it would really shake up the game" Evans

[mkirsh]

It certainly would be entertaining to blow up the game like that, but I'd have to say I think I would have mixed feelings about it. While it certainly makes the TV viewing better, I think it's pretty unfair to people who have played a very good game to this point (ie Marcus, Charlie, Corrine) and gives the middle tier a much better chance at making it farther. I think the bottom of the barrel at this point is recognized as the weakest links by both tribes, so don't think they are affected much, but putting Matty, Bob, Marcus, Ken, and Sugar in a tribe would be very interesting to see what would happen to Marcus - would he resume his leadership position, or would he be targeted as a threat so close to the eventual merge (or maybe they never get to a merge, but just top 2 on each team go into final voting?)

I also like your earlier point on Randy as the king-maker; barring any major shuffle I definitely see him relishing in that role, but unfortunately for him I don't think he has any way to make himself King as he will have to manipulate and backstab too many people to get any jury sympathy unless people respect his strategic game (which I doubt since he's been such an I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this. in challenges).

Should be a good week, this is the time of the season where Survivor starts to get really interesting.

[lazee]

Whoa...didn't see this new "twist!" Thought it would be over for Fang since the two new tribes still had 3 Kotas on there.

Kudos to Ken & Crystal for swaying Suzie to their side...thought for sure Ken was a goner. Charlie/Corrine/Randy are going to super shocked to find out that Marcus was voted out...what a blindside!!!!! However, if a merge is indeed next week, they're going to target Suzie. Wonder if Sugar & Matty will side with Ken, Crystal & Suzie for a 5-4 majority.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

Whoa...didn't see this new "twist!" Thought it would be over for Fang since the two new tribes still had 3 Kotas on there.

Kudos to Ken & Crystal for swaying Suzie to their side...thought for sure Ken was a goner. Charlie/Corrine/Randy are going to super shocked to find out that Marcus was voted out...what a blindside!!!!! However, if a merge is indeed next week, they're going to target Suzie. Wonder if Sugar & Matty will side with Ken, Crystal & Suzie for a 5-4 majority.

I hate it when the weak players win. I think by now Survivors would know to take them out early, but nooooooo, keep them around 'cause they'll be easier to beat later on. Riiiiiiiight. Dumb strategy. Next edition, players should eat the weak when food starts getting scarce the second week of play.:eek::eek::eek:

[riverside6]

After last night, I'm liking my final two of Randy & Corinne more and more. Throw in a 3rd, likely a weaker player from the minority (Kenny?) and I could see it playing out.

[JasonEvans]

I must say at first blush I really liked the fact that Marcus, Corinne, and Charlie (the trio that I see as controlling the game at this moment) were strategic enough to pick Dan as the guy to take out but to also have a backup plan by putting some votes toward Susie just in case Dan did have the immunity idol. It appeared to be good strategic decision-making on their part. But, in retrospect, I am not so sure.

Is it possible that they alienated Susie by throwing 3 votes her way? Did their votes against her show her that they cannot be trusted and perhaps set the stage for her to go back with Crystal, Matty, and Ken -- who were her original tribe-mates? If she defects to the other side (who probably have Sugar with them as well), that makes the voting block split 5-to-5.


Well, while it did not happen exactly how I expected it, I did sorta see the defection of Susie coming and knew that would be a key element. The moment where she and Macus were talking and she said, "but I would be 6th in your alliance and I want to be in the final 3" was the moment where you knew Marcus was in deep doo-doo. Can anyone think of any reason she would have stuck with Marcus versus being in a tight alliance with Ken and Crystal? I sure can't.

I like this shake-up as it prevented the next several weeks of the show from being predictable. Strong showing by Matty, by the way, in winning immunity for his tribe. I love that the challenge was not one that could be thrown. If Charlie, Corine, and Randy had been able to throw their challenge, they should have, but the show did not let them.

--Jason "I'll have more later" Evans

[Jumbo]

I hated that twist. I hate it when people dominate the game and then everything changes based on artificial manufacturing. At this point, there's too much manipulation to present some form of suspense, rather than the fait accompli of the majority picking off the minority, one by one. I'd much rather see someone from the minority group actually have to play the game. In this case, it would have meant splitting the Kota 6 up into 3 and three, promising one a 4th vote, and going from there.

Now, we've lost a strong and smart player, and one of only two or three relatively likeable people on the show. It's stupid. It sucks.

[JasonEvans]

I hated that twist. I hate it when people dominate the game and then everything changes based on artificial manufacturing. At this point, there's too much manipulation to present some form of suspense, rather than the fait accompli of the majority picking off the minority, one by one. I'd much rather see someone from the minority group actually have to play the game. In this case, it would have meant splitting the Kota 6 up into 3 and three, promising one a 4th vote, and going from there.

Now, we've lost a strong and smart player, and one of only two or three relatively likeable people on the show. It's stupid. It sucks.

I dunno-- a piece of me agrees that tribal shuffles can be really unfair but that has been a part of the game for a looong time. I can recall many seasons in the past where a strong player got caught in a bad shuffle and was booted right away. Those are the breaks in Survivor.

I think Marcus had a path to survival. He needed to work hard on Susie to make sure she did not turn. He needed to bribe and threaten and do whatever he could to influence her. She is a lightweight and if he had played it harder, I think he could have convinced her.

I think he was overconfident... and it cost him.

I am dying to see the reaction from Randy, Charlie, and Corine when they see that Marcus has been voted off, the scramble to figure out what to do next will be amusing, I suspect. It may create an interesting situation where Susie, a player who would ordinarily go under the radar for a while, has a big revenge target on her back.

--Jason "I am betting something happens to keep Bob alive this coming week-- we just have not gotten to know him enough for him to go yet" Evans

[mkirsh]

I agree with Jumbo, the tribe shuffles unfairly hurt those who have played a good game, and benefit those who have played a mediocre game. Kudos to Jason for the prediction though.

As for Suzie's decision, I don't think she made a great move but was kind of screwed either way - voting out Marcus did do a lot of damage to the controlling alliance, but aligning herself with the 2 weakest players doesn't guarantee her getting any farther than staying with the Cota six. I assume merge will happen after the next vote, so assume Fang loses and Bob will be gone, then we'll have Corine, Charlie, and Randy vs Kenny, Suzie, and Crystal, with Matty and Sugar as the swing. I think Matty hates Crystal and Sugar is upset with Kenny for lying about Ace, so I would think they lean Cota more than Fang, with the result being Suzie on the short end again. If the other tribe loses and votes out Matty, you have Randy, Corine, Charlie, and Bob vs Suzie, Kenny, and Crystal with Sugar as the wild card, again not great for Suzie. Either way, the fight for those 1-2 votes will determine the winner.

As for Marcus, he should have promised Suzie final three as it would be the best strategy for him anyway, since it would put someone very undeserving sitting next to him for the final vote, rather than taking Charlie and Corine or Randy. I think he probably would have won the vote between that group anyway, and by taking Suzie would have lost one of their votes with the backstab, but probably put him in a better position. It's a shame we won't get to find out. Marcus didn't last long, but was a very strong player, which sparks an interesting debate - who are the best survivor players not to win?

Last point - with each elimination, Sugar's immunity idol becomes more and more powerful. Will be interesting to see if she can use it to really advance herself in the game.

[JasonEvans]

As for Marcus, he should have promised Suzie final three as it would be the best strategy for him anyway, since it would put someone very undeserving sitting next to him for the final vote, rather than taking Charlie and Corine or Randy. I think he probably would have won the vote between that group anyway, and by taking Suzie would have lost one of their votes with the backstab, but probably put him in a better position. It's a shame we won't get to find out. Marcus didn't last long, but was a very strong player, which sparks an interesting debate - who are the best survivor players not to win?

Last point - with each elimination, Sugar's immunity idol becomes more and more powerful. Will be interesting to see if she can use it to really advance herself in the game.

1) The best player to not win was Colby. Dominated challenges, controlled what was happening in his alliance (picking off the horrible members of his alliance when they did not expect it and could not backstab him was genius), he did everything right... until he picked the person to sit next to him at the final vote and he chose the wrong person. I think some of the folks who voted against him felt that he was a cinch to win and they were just being contrarian, not realizing that he might lose.

I also thought Rob C in Amazon played an amazing game, recognizing when he needed to change things up to last a little bit longer. I see a little bit of him in Kenny, who seems to also be a strong strategic player. Rob just could not get to the final vote. If he had, I think he would have convinced the jury he deserved it more than Jenna.

2) As for Sugar and her immunity idol, I agree that it is growing in importance. I think she is safe at least this week and will not have to use it. Still, at some point she gets a target on her back from having it and that could be a problem. Still, I think a smart player can really use the immunity idol to make it far-- even beyond just surviving one extra vote-- they can force their way into an alliance because the idol carries so much power. I am not sure if Sugar will figure out a way to do this, but she might.

--Jason "I wonder if Sugar will make Kenny pay for tricking Sugar into betraying Ace" Evans

[DukeUsul]

Ok, so as soon as we saw Sugar crying, it was obvious she was voting for Charlie. It was nice to see Corinne and team have a bit of a shock. She's such a b-word. It was nice to see Sugar stuff her words right back in her mouth.

Did I say that I'm absolutely in love with Sugar?

[JasonEvans]

My kids were screaming at the TV when they saw Charlie voted out. I thought it could not be Charlie at first because I felt like we did not see enough of him for this to be his farewell episode, but then they kept on showing Sugar crying and I realized that she would not cry at voting out Crystal. Ahh well.

I am sorta glad Sugar went the way she did, not because I like Crystal or Kenny (though his ruthless play is sorta growing on me), but because I liked seeing arrogant Corine being on the wrong end of a vote. Her comment that she has been mean to Sugar the whole time but that she expects Sugar to vote with her was just so indicative of the mean player Corine is. I hope she learns some humility.

I also think Sugar made the right choice. She had to know that she was #5 in an alliance with Bob, Randy, Charlie, and Corine but she could probably suspect that she could play the other alliance a little better and that it is not nearly as solid as the former Kota crew. I think she went the right way with her vote, even if it made her cry.

I am betting that Randy is the next one the controlling alliance will target. Sugar hates him and she will go along with them to vote him out, for sure. Kenny is smart enough to make a decision that ensures that Sugar stays with his alliance. I would bet that Corine goes next after that.

I am not sure where things go at that point. Crystal has such a knack for being a drama queen that I suspect she will have alienated someone important at that point. I wonder if Bob and Susie will begin to assert themselves though I have a hard time thinking anyone would take Bob to the end with them as he is really likable and will have a bunch of allies on the jury in Charlie, Marcus, Corine, and probably Randy. Then there is Matty, who at some point could become a real threat to dominate challenges. Recall that Matty is no huge fan of Crystal and if he thinks that Kenny is 100% with Crystal it is possible at some point that Matty would try to lead an effort to get rid of them. Maybe he teams with Bob and Sugar to get it done. I am not sure how it could happen but a Bob, Matty, and Kenny final 3 would be a really interesting matchup. I think that if he can get to the end, there may be some real respect given to Kenny for having controlled the game the way he has, even if he did it through some lying and scheming.

One last thing-- we are entering the point in the game where Sugar's immunity idol starts to play an even bigger role. At what point does she fear being blindsided enough to play it? At what point do the others fear her power enough to turn on her? I suspect that Kenny thinks he can manipulate Sugar however he wants and will try to keep her around as a result. He could accidentally make her extremely powerful as a result.

--Jason "getting verrrry interesting" Evans

[JasonEvans]

One last thing-- we are entering the point in the game where Sugar's immunity idol starts to play an even bigger role. At what point does she fear being blindsided enough to play it? At what point do the others fear her power enough to turn on her? I suspect that Kenny thinks he can manipulate Sugar however he wants and will try to keep her around as a result. He could accidentally make her extremely powerful as a result.

Oh, I totally forgot to mention that the fake immunity idol made by Bob was just awesome looking!! We've had fake idols on the show before but they always just look like a badly carved stick or something idiotic like that. From what I saw of it, Bob's fake idol looked very convincing.

I wonder how or even if he will try to use it to influence people. Plenty of folks know that Sugar has an idol (and I imagine that Bob suspects she does now too), will they believe that there could be a second idol found by Bob? Hmmmm.

--Jason "Bob has got to survive until late in this game-- he is a great character" Evans

[DukeUsul]

Oh, I totally forgot to mention that the fake immunity idol made by Bob was just awesome looking!! We've had fake idols on the show before but they always just look like a badly carved stick or something idiotic like that. From what I saw of it, Bob's fake idol looked very convincing.

I wonder how or even if he will try to use it to influence people. Plenty of folks know that Sugar has an idol (and I imagine that Bob suspects she does now too), will they believe that there could be a second idol found by Bob? Hmmmm.

--Jason "Bob has got to survive until late in this game-- he is a great character" Evans

Yes it was impressive. I imagine Bob would confide in Corinne that it's not real. I'm not sure if he'd tell others (i.e., Randy). So who would buy the story - somehow I think Kenny is gullible enough to believe a second idol.... I'm not sure why. Sugar would see right through it - she's not as dumb as Corinne thinks she is.

I'm trying to figure out if Sugar has a path to the win. Would anyone want to bring her to the end? I've got to think as she works her newfound control, people will realize what's going on and will try to take her out. I'm afraid she won't use the idol when she needs to. And even if she does, when it comes down to the final, if she doesn't win that last immunity, no one would choose to go up against her.

[JasonEvans]

I'm trying to figure out if Sugar has a path to the win. Would anyone want to bring her to the end? I've got to think as she works her newfound control, people will realize what's going on and will try to take her out. I'm afraid she won't use the idol when she needs to. And even if she does, when it comes down to the final, if she doesn't win that last immunity, no one would choose to go up against her.

Oh, I certainly see a path to victory for her. After taking out Corine and Randy (who are gone barring a fairly major shift in the game that I simply do not see right now because I can't imagine anyone sticking their head out to save two unlikeable players), we are left with a core alliance of Kenny and Crystal and then Matty, Bob, Susie, and Sugar. I don't think Matty is super tight with them and Susie seems like a loose cannon. It might be at that point that Kenny and Crystal decide to take out Sugar's idol and someone (Bob?) could come to Sugar and arrange a coup of sorts. Kenny is getting quite comfortable in his role of king and Survivor almost always shows us that when you get confident, you are in trouble.

As for someone putting Sugar into the final with them, because we have no idea if it will be a 2 or 3 person final, I think it is simply too early to speculate about that stuff. I could also imagine folks picking her to go up against instead of Bob, Matty, and Kenny. It all depends on who the final choice is among. Sure, if you are picking Sugar versus Susie or Crystal then it is an easy choice but all the other scenarios present some real options.

--Jason "if Randy arranges his survival this week, I will be stunned" Evans

[lazee]

Another blindside at tribal council...I'm loving this season!!

I may be in the minority, but I really like the Crystal & Kenny alliance. Kenny is maturing in the game episode by episode. I hope they make it to the finals. I can't stand Randy & Corrine. I'm sure her "Marcus deserves to be here" rant was pretty insulting to the others players. Based on the insider clips, Susie took exception to it.


"Corinne is a personality, a person that I feel, she's very fortunate. She's one of those kind of people who came into this world with great parents, great education, is able to have any job she really wants. She's very fortunate that way. I was very hurt yesterday when we lost the immunity and she made a statement after she'd seen that Marcus was voted out that he deserved to be here, he was playing with heart. It was very insulting, because she made it perfectly clear that none of the rest of us deserved it, only her and Marcus deserve to be here. We kind of called her out on it a little bit. I really took offense to that, it was very hurtful. Her personality is very all about herself, I come first, I deserve to have all this. It's just not the real world. People don't live like that. Or at least the people I know are not like that. I'm trying to see the good in her, she probably is kind, she probably does have her sweet moments, but in reality, outside this game she's not someone I would hang out with. She seems very selfish, and very mean-spirited, and I just don't like that."

By the way, Bob's fake immunity idol is way better & creative than Sugar's real one!!!!

[Blue in the Face]

Ace booted (http://www.news-press.com/article/20081118/NEWS0119/811180407/1002/NEWS01)a second time.

[JasonEvans]

By the way, Bob's fake immunity idol is way better & creative than Sugar's real one!!!!

In the previews CBS is running for this week's Survivor, they show the fake immunity idol and we hear Randy saying "If Bob would give me the idol... there's gonna be some surprised people at tribal council tonight."

http://www.survivorfever.com/vc_s17/vc_s17_ep10_11_16/vc_s17_ep10_11_16_0030.jpg

That's just awesome!!!

I wonder if the Kenystal alliance will try to take out Corinne instead of Randy out of fear of the fake idol?

--Jason "I cannot wait to see the look on everyone's face when Jeff says that the fake idol is not real" Evans

[JasonEvans]

I am betting that Randy is the next one the controlling alliance will target. Sugar hates him and she will go along with them to vote him out, for sure. Kenny is smart enough to make a decision that ensures that Sugar stays with his alliance. I would bet that Corine goes next after that.


First of all, I loved that the show did not even begin to hide who was going home. There was no misdirection or other option -- though Matty may have played his hand too soon in pushing for a Bob boot. It was Randy's turn all the way and nothing was going to stop that. The only question was how the show would shame him in sending him home.

I really do not like that Bob trusted Sugar so much to tell her he had made a fake idol. I think he should have guessed that Sugar had found the idol and pretended like the show had planted another one for him to find. Sure, it made for a fun goof on Randy to have the idol be fake, but I am not sure that was Bob's most strategic move.

I would also add that Bob has now alienated significant people on the jury. Unless Bob can convince Randy and Corine that he did not know that his idol was fake then they are going to be very angry at him for deceiving them. What's more, the preview for next week shows Bob telling Corine about another hidden idol, the one Marcus supposedly threw away. I am convinced that this is a fake story and that Bob is playing games again. We would have known about it if Marcus really did hang onto the idol. Marcus talked about throwing the idol away in secret conversations with the camera. No way he would lie to the producers/camera about throwing it away. That just is not done on Survivor.

So, Bob is now going to pull a fake-idol trick on Corine. Damn, that is cold! Randy and Corine are still tight with Marcus and Charlie. Those folks are going to make up half of the jury. Why is Bob turning folks who should be in his alliance against him on the jury?!?! Is he resigned to not making it to the final vote so he knows that jury opinion does not matter or is he just not thinking about this part of the game? I had once considered him unbeatable if he made it to the end. Now, I am having trouble figuring out how he could beat anyone except maybe Susie or Crystal.

I think it is possible that Bob and Sugar have something up their sleeves in the next couple episodes. If you think that Kenny, Crystal, and Susie are so tight that they cannot be broken apart then time is running out to make a move on them. I doubt those 3 players want to go into the finals against Sugar or especially Matty. I wonder if, after taking out Corine, Bob and Sugar are going to try to use the idol to get rid of Kenny or Crystal. I think they could maybe get Matty on their side.

Kenny is going to realize very soon that he needs to get Matty and Sugar out of the game. Sugar's power with the idol is a huge deal. Matty's physical strength matters a lot too.

--Jason "still anyone's game" Evans

[IamMatt'sUserName]

What's more, the preview for next week shows Bob telling Corine about another hidden idol, the one Marcus supposedly threw away. I am convinced that this is a fake story and that Bob is playing games again.

An alternative interpretation of the preview for next week's show might be that Bob is fabricating an explanation for his fake idol (i.e., that he innocently passed the idol on to Randy after being duped by Marcus); not that he is trying to convince Corine that there's another hidden idol to be found.

[Blue in the Face]

I really do not like that Bob trusted Sugar so much to tell her he had made a fake idol. I think he should have guessed that Sugar had found the idol and pretended like the show had planted another one for him to find. Sure, it made for a fun goof on Randy to have the idol be fake, but I am not sure that was Bob's most strategic move.
I agree, I couldn't understand why Bob would tell Sugar that, and up to that moment I had assumed he'd play it straight up like he had an idol. For a split second, when Jeff paused on "this is ... *not* an immunity idol", I let myself believe Bob and the producers had faked all of us out, and he had in fact found a second idol. But of course Survivor never holds back that much drama until the final moments.

[JasonEvans]

An alternative interpretation of the preview for next week's show might be that Bob is fabricating an explanation for his fake idol (i.e., that he innocently passed the idol on to Randy after being duped by Marcus); not that he is trying to convince Corine that there's another hidden idol to be found.

Again I ask, how does this help Bob? Marcus can immediately refute this once Corine joins him in the jury room. If it is a lie, and I stress that I can't imagine it is not a lie, then Bob is deceiving key members of the jury who would have otherwise been on his side if he can find a way to somehow make it to the end.

-Jason "could Bob be telling the truth? If so-- wow!" Evans

[JasonEvans]

I agree, I couldn't understand why Bob would tell Sugar that, and up to that moment I had assumed he'd play it straight up like he had an idol. For a split second, when Jeff paused on "this is ... *not* an immunity idol", I let myself believe Bob and the producers had faked all of us out, and he had in fact found a second idol. But of course Survivor never holds back that much drama until the final moments.

The more I think about it, the more I think that Bob and Sugar have something up their sleeve. Recall that Sugar said to Bob, "I have a different plan," and then the camera cut to them in a different place, at a different angle with Sugar talking about Bob giving the fake idol to Randy. The implication was that Sugar and Bob talked about the fake idol to Randy plan but it is very possible they were talking about something else.

Sugar and Bob were together at the beginning of the game, back when Marcus, Charlie, and Corine were making everyone else feel like outsiders. I think it is possible that Sugar and Bob have been allies of a sort for a looong time.

--Jason "I sorta wonder though why they would wait to get rid of Corine to hatch their plan as it has to be easier to get numbers with Corine still around" Evans

[JasonEvans]

While the decision to vote out Corine was hardly surprising, the path to getting there in this episode was fabulous.

Bob, who at one time seemed to be the opposite of strategic, now appears to be one of the more compelling and clever players in Survivor history. His new fake immunity idol is simply fabulous! That thing looks 100% real. Where on Earth did he come up with the beads and trinkets to make that?!?!

http://www.survivorfever.com/vc_s17/vc_s17_ep11_fake_idol/vc_s17_ep11_fake_idol_0013.jpg

Now, what I have a problem with is how he used it. He and Corine played it like they were going to use the idol, though they did not want to. That does not work because the idol is worthless at tribal council. They needed to convince Ken and Crystal (or someone else, more on that in a moment) that they were not going to use it. I think the best way to do this would have been to give the idol to Ken and/or Crystal in exchange for an alliance to the end.

I will say this, Ken, who at one time appeared to be a brilliant strategist, made what appeared to be a totally boneheaded move to vote against Matty. His vote was useless because Corine gets voted out whether she has 4 or 5 votes against her. What good did it do for him to throw one more vote toward Matty other than warning Matty that his head is on the chopping block? Very strange decision by Ken and one which could really shake up the game next week. Has Ken fractured his core alliance? He was in control of the voting but I am not so sure anymore. That could have been a fatal move.

That said, it may have also been a brilliant move. Ken may have bought himself some significant allies on the jury with that vote. Corine said nice things about Ken in the post-game confessional and she will have an influence on Marcus, Randy, and Charlie in the jury box. If Ken gets to the end against anyone but Bob he may walk away with this thing in a laugher. Hmmmm.

Ok, the biggest problem I have with Bob and Corine's strategy is that they went to the wrong allies. They should not have picked Ken and Crystal, they should have gone for Matty and someone else. Everyone knows Matty is a physical challenge threat. He has to know that Ken and the others do not want to go up against him at the end. Does Matty really think that he is going to last at all once Bob and Corine are gone? They should have pulled him in and then gone after someone else.

Now, the problem with this is that everyone hated Corine. I think Bob could have pulled in Sugar or even Susie but both of those players so dislike Corine that it would have been hard. Corine's attitude toward folks she was not allied with came back to bite her in the butt at this point.

Going forward, now that we have reached the final 6, anything can happen. Sugar still has an immunity idol to play. I suppose Bob is the logical target here, but he is clever and there is enough paranoia right now that he may be able to sneak along a bit longer. It is clear that any challenge that involves brains will be his for the taking, that is for sure.

--Jason "Bob should have told everyone that it was his choice to allow the family loved-ones to come back to camp" Evans

[JasonEvans]

I just notice that tonight and then 2-hours on Sunday are all that is left from this season's Survivor.

Ummm, maybe it is just me but the number do not make sense. We have 6 players left. Presumably one will get the boot tonight. That leaves 5 for the finale on Sunday. That is just too many. Even if you face-off-with the jury with 3 people in the finals you still have to boot 2 people either tonight or on Sunday.

Hmmmm, is something up?

--Jason "could they do some kind of double-boot tonight?" Evans

[riverside6]

In the past they've gone into the final with 4 and had only 2 in the final vote. I'd imagine we'll see 1 go tonight, 2 go on Sunday, and then left with 3 for the final vote.

If Sugar's smart, she's playing the immunity idol tonight.

[JasonEvans]

In the past they've gone into the final with 4 and had only 2 in the final vote. I'd imagine we'll see 1 go tonight, 2 go on Sunday, and then left with 3 for the final vote.

If Sugar's smart, she's playing the immunity idol tonight.

2 tribal council eliminations plus a jury confrontation (with 3 people answering jury questions) is a ton of stuff to pack into one 2-hour episode. That would be much more than they have ever done in the past.

In past shows where they had 2 eliminations in the final episode there was always just a 2-person final group, not 3.

--Jason "Sugar needs to either play the idol... or give it to an ally that she thinks might be in trouble" Evans

[DukeUsul]

Maybe we'll have a surprise double elimination tonight.

[JasonEvans]

Where does tonight's episode rank in the greatest episodes ever rankings? It has to be near the top.

I won't post more right now to avoid spoilers for folks who have not seen it yet... but WOW, what a great episode!!

--Jason "best tribal council EVAH!" Evans

[OZZIE4DUKE]

Where does tonight's episode rank in the greatest episodes ever rankings? It has to be near the top.

I won't post more right now to avoid spoilers for folks who have not seen it yet... but WOW, what a great episode!!

--Jason "best tribal council EVAH!" Evans

Finally, players used both the regular and the hidden immunity idols wisely! Corrine certainly liked what happened.

I like both Bob and Sugar. Hope they get to face each other in the finals because they deserve it. I don't think that Sugar is anywhere near as naive and she sometimes makes out to be - she grew in the game, especially after she blew it with Ace.

[DukeUsul]

Could I have a huger crush on Sugar right now?

I seem to recall Probst, before the season started, say something about how this season would see the worst moves with the immunity idols. I'm not sure how that could be, since we saw some mastery from Bob and Sugar last night. Maybe it was just misdirection.

[riverside6]

Could I have a huger crush on Sugar right now?

I seem to recall Probst, before the season started, say something about how this season would see the worst moves with the immunity idols. I'm not sure how that could be, since we saw some mastery from Bob and Sugar last night. Maybe it was just misdirection.

he could have been alluding to all of the fake idols

[BlueDevilJay]

I haven't got to watch all episode this season but have kept up with it via recaps. I DID get to watch last nights, and WOW that was an amazing TC, you are correct. I seem to remember one last season that was close in drama factor, but last night was probably the 'smartest' one I've seen yet on the show. And I have ALSO developed a pretty major crush on Sugar, and cannot figure out why! Great episode last night all around, and I wanna see the video game kid head home next, his conniving (sp?) attempt on Bob didn't sit well with me, and I loved the look on his face.

[JasonEvans]

Ok, a couple questions/comments about what players did in this episode--

First-- why didn't Bob give the immunity idol to Kenny? It would not hurt Bob to do this as Sugar could still give the hidden immunity idol to Bob. It might have made Bob and extra ally on the jury in Kenny (who seems likely to be headed to the jury in the next vote) and perhaps even made Bob and ally of Kenny's friend Crystal.

That said, Bob may already feel like he is friends with Kenny and Crystal and he already has a lot of allies on the jury (though mohawk Randy is still mad at him). If Bob makes it to the end, I have a hard time seeing him losing the final vote.

Second-- Kenny finally over-schemed himself. His ploy to make Bob give up the idol and then vote Bob out was just plain evil and he should have known that Sugar would not go for something that mean to a guy as nice as Bob. bob had just taken Kenny and Crystal on a fabulous reward and they stab him in the back like that?!?! I am glad Crystal got dumped and Kenny found himself on the outs. It happens again and again in Survivor -- if you think you are in total control of the game keep quiet about it. Because as soon as you get cocky, watch out, because you are probably about to get a punch in the gut.

Third-- no double elimination last night. Does this mean they get rid of two people on Sunday and then have the final 3? Is there any way they might have a final four players? I don't think I would like that. I am betting they do a quick elimination in the first 30 minutes and then another one 30 minutes later to set up the final 3 in the final hour of the show.

Fourth-- Here is how I assess the player's chances in the final episode, starting with the person most likely to win and then moving down the list:

Bob - obviously, if he keeps on winning then he is gonna make the finals and will be the winner. I have a hard time seeing anyone beating him in a jury vote as he is clever, dominating challenges, and is very likable. That said, I am not sure anyone is going to want to go up against him at the end (unless folks like Matty and Sugar have decided that they don't care about winning so long as a "good person" takes the prize). If he loses an immunity challenge, I think there will be a movement to take him out to give everyone else a fighting chance in the jury vote. Can he make the final 3? That is the major question left for him. Chance of winning - 40%

Sugar - I won't be at all surprised if she wins it all so long a she is not going up against Bob. I don't think she has made real enemies on the jury. She was part of the original Kota, so she has a bond with Charlie, Corine, and Marcus and could get their votes if Bob is not in the finals. She has played the end of the game nicely and clearly won some friends with her move to give Marcus the idol last night. She is sweet and emotional and easy to like. She has performed poorly in challenges but has been at the center of a lot of the key moves in the games from a voting standpoint, so she may not be seen as one of those weak under-the-radar players who are undeserving (yes, Susie, I am looking at you!). I also think she is a mortal lock to make the final 3. I cannot come up with a reasonable scenario where she gets voted out before Bob, Matty, or Kenny. Chance of winning - 25%

Matty - Everyone has been afraid of his physical domination and he needs to make it happen in the final episode. His case for winning needs to include at least one and probably 2 more immunity wins. I don't think he can beat Bob in the vote, but he might have the best chance at it. His appeal would start with the fact that his is a physical player and he has to hope that the jury will respect a strong guy who stuck around to the end despite having a target on his back for a looong time. His biggest argument though is that he did not stab anyone in the back the whole game. He is not seen as part of the evil Kenny and Crystal alliance, even though he almost always voted with them. I think he will have a very strong integrity argument at the end and he needs to bring up the story of him refusing to write Ace's name down and then keeping with that pledge even when it was dangerous for him to do so. I do think he will have a big target on his back in the next vote though, as everyone would expect him to win an endurance final challenge and way want to take him out before that happens. Like Bob, I'd give him only a 50-50 shot at making the final 3. Chance of winning - 20%

Kenny - on the surface it may look like he is toast, but he may be hated enough to be a key guy to take with you to the final three. His only jury ally will be Crystal, that is for sure. If Sugar and especially Susie decide they want to have a chance at winning, they need to go to the finals with Kenny because Matty and especially Bob are going to be almost impossible to beat in a final vote. So, do they take Kenny to the end to get rid of the 2 "strong" guys? That is Kenny's best hope. I think Kenny will do well with jury Q&A if he can get there as he thinks well on his feet and is fairly smart. He also lies quite convincingly. If the jury is faced with a choice of Kenny, Susie, or Sugar, they may go with the guy who controlled the game versus the ladies who seemed to coast quite a bit. Chance of winning - 14%

Susie - She, like Sugar, is probably a lock to make the final 3. Maybe, if BobSugarMatty get hung up on "deserve to be there" stuff they might decide to take her out but that is the only way she does not get to the end. Of course, the problem is I cannot figure out any scenario where Susie wins it all. Is there anyone she can make a case against? She is a non-entity in challenges and in strategy. I can't see this jury rewarding her for doing nothing all game long. Chance of winning - 1% (because I don't feel like giving anyone a 0% chance)

--Jason "been a strong season-- clearly in the top half of all Survivor editions, IMO" Evans

[mkirsh]

When I watched the episode I was thinking the same thing as Jason - I thought Bob should have given the necklace to Kenny, and then Sugar should have given the immunity idol to Bob, allowing Bob to keep his word in front of the jury and to Kenny, and would have also shown how underhanded Kenny was being to the jury. However, after thinking about it, what they did was safer as they protected both Matty and Bob in case Kenny had any tricks up his sleeve to vote for Matty. In the end it really didn't matter as they had solid 4-2 majority (we never saw how Sue was going to vote as that would have killed the suspense - well edited and produced episode), so even if no one had immunity Crystal was going anyway.

I do think Bob-Sugar-Matty-Sue made a mistake in getting rid of Crystal instead of Kenny. Crystal is non-existent in challenges, and won't likely have a single ally on the jury (as evidenced by Corinne's Tiger Wood's style fist pumping when she was booted). If I were Bob, Sugar, Matty, or Sue I would rather go up against Crystal in the final than Kenny, and I would not want Kenny in camp trying to manipulate the next 2 votes.

I can't figure out Sugar - is she emotionally wishy-washy or a strategic genius? She'll have to convice people that she's the latter, and I'm not sure if she has many supporters on the current jury - I think she needs to go against Kenny and Sue in the final and have Matty and Bob support her on the jury to have a chance to win.

As for the jury - I think Marcus, Corinne and Charlie will definitely vote for Bob if he's there, but can't tell who they prefer out of Matty, Kenny, and Sugar. Likely won't vote for Sue as she was the deciding vote in getting Marcus voted out. Randy would vote for Matty, but if he's not there you may see the first "abstain" vote in survivor history, as he hates Sugar, Sue and Kenny, and probably won't forgive Bob for the fake idol. Will be interesting to see how the next episode plays out; it's been an unconventional season, so we'll see if the show has any more surprises in store.

[JasonEvans]

Kenny just got voted out. Sounding like Susie or Bob will be next.

I am intrigued by a Matty, Sugar, Bob final as I think all three would be very deserving.

-Jason "a ten foot tall house of cards!! another challenge rigged for Bob?" Evans

[JasonEvans]

-Jason "a ten foot tall house of cards!! another challenge rigged for Bob?" Evans

Ummm- or NOT!!

-Jason "told Ya'll Susie would make the finals ;) " Evans

[OZZIE4DUKE]

I'm glad Sugar decided to vote with Dad/Bob. Both Matty and Bob were worthy winners, and creating fire is a good test of the skills that they developed during their stay. The fact that Bob was smart enough to practice starting fire in the afternoon was rather cool, and typical of a teacher to prepare his lessons before teaching class.

I hope that Bob wins and Sugar finishes second. Another 20 to 30 minutes or so and we'll know!

[AuburnDukeGirl]

Wow! This has been one of the craziest juries I have seen on Survivor. Corinne showed herself to be a reprehensible human being and Marcus was so condescending it was insane. I am speechless.

[Exiled_Devil]

I haven't got to watch all episode this season but have kept up with it via recaps. I DID get to watch last nights, and WOW that was an amazing TC, you are correct. I seem to remember one last season that was close in drama factor, but last night was probably the 'smartest' one I've seen yet on the show. And I have ALSO developed a pretty major crush on Sugar, and cannot figure out why! Great episode last night all around, and I wanna see the video game kid head home next, his conniving (sp?) attempt on Bob didn't sit well with me, and I loved the look on his face.

I haven't watched at all, but when they showed the three live in LA, I got a crush on Sugar, too.

[Lavabe]

...that the next Survivor is NOT going to be Madagascar. :eek::eek: My students told me that it was up on the list as the next locale.

Please let me know.
Thanks,
Lavabe

[OZZIE4DUKE]

Next Survivor is in Brazil!

[JasonEvans]

Wow! This has been one of the craziest juries I have seen on Survivor. Corinne showed herself to be a reprehensible human being and Marcus was so condescending it was insane. I am speechless.

The jury always, always, always acts like asses... at least some of them. It is as predictable as someone saying, "I am in total control" in an episode where they get voted out.

-Jason "the votes for Susie baffled me and felt like people voting against the others more than voting for her" Evans

[JasonEvans]

He may not have been the greatest strategist, but Bob may have been the smartest player in Survivor history. Practicing building a fire, collecting trinkets and rope so he could build the fake idols, and all his success at puzzle-solving -- WOW! The dude is perhaps the most deserving winner ever.

As an aside, my odds really underestimated how much everyone was sick of Sugar's crying and whining about her dead dad. It is now clear that a Matty, Bob, Sugar (or anyone else) final would have likely resulted in Matty winning. The fact that he stabbed no one in the back would have done it for him.

--Jason "great season... next year in Brazil!" Evans

[DukeUsul]

Well, this just goes to show you that physicists are not engineers. Now, had Bob been able to assume that the cards were spherically uniform, frictionless and he was working in a vacuum.....

I wonder if Bob would give his extra $100K to Sugar. He owed her big in that win. Like Jason said, has Matty been in that final he would have won. Bob owes Sugar big time for sticking with him.

[Lavabe]

Next Survivor is in Brazil!

Thank Heaven!!:D

[JasonEvans]

I wonder if Bob would give his extra $100K to Sugar. He owed her big in that win. Like Jason said, has Matty been in that final he would have won. Bob owes Sugar big time for sticking with him.

Well, if Sugar knew (and it appears she did) that she had zero chance to win the million against anyone, what did it matter if she went with Bob versus Matty? She loses to either one of them.

-Jason