The Duke football team has won 19 games in the last two seasons.
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It’s hard to believe a program that was so bad for so long – probably the worst BCS program in the country in the decade before David Cutcliffe’s arrival – could be so successful as to play in three straight bowls, win an ACC Division championship and come within a missed field goal of playing in a second straight ACC title game.
There are many who don’t believe it – or at least don’t believe that Cutcliffe can sustain the level of success that he’s achieved the last two years. Last month in Pinehurst at the ACC Football Kickoff, he was asked pointed questions about replacing the many losses off last season’s 9-4 team.
Duke did lose some very good players – guard Laken Tomlinson was the first Blue Devil lineman to earn consensus All-American honors since Fred Crawford in 1933. Anthony Boone quarterbacked Duke to more wins in his two years as a starter than any quarterback in school history. Jamison Crowder finished as the most prolific receiver (and one of the best punt returners) in Duke history.
In addition, Duke lost its starting left tackle, an All-ACC linebacker, three of four starting defensive linemen (including its top two pass rushers), its No. 2 receiver, a second starting linebacker and a solid four-year performer at tailback.
Wow! Can any team survive losses like that?
Well, let’s try and put Duke’s losses in context. The ACC tracks the number of returning starters each team has. They count a possible 24 returnees – 11 on offense, 11 on defense and the two kicking specialists. This is the list going into this season:
1. Virginia Tech – 18 (8 offense, 8 defense, 2 specialists)
2. (tie) Pitt – 17 (8 offense, 7 defense, 2 specialists)
North Carolina – 17 (10 offense, 7 defense, 0 specialists)
4. Georgia Tech – 16 (6 offense, 8 defense, 2 specialists)
5. Wake Forest – 15 (6 offense, 7 defense, 2 specialists)
6. (tie) Duke – 14 (6 offense, 6 defense, 2 specialists)
N.C. State – 14 (6 offense, 8 defense, 0 specialist)
8. Louisville – 13 (5 offense, 6 defense, 2 specialists)
9. Florida State – 12 (3 offense, 7 defense, 2 specialists)
10 .(tie) Miami – 11 (4 offense, 5 defense, 0 specialist)
Syracuse – 11 (5 offense, 3 defense, 2 specialists)
Virginia – 11 (5 offense, 5 defense, 1 specialist)
13. (tie) Boston College – 9 (5 offense, 3 defense, 1 specialist)
Clemson – 9 (5 offense, 3 defense, 1 specialist)
Duke’s plight doesn’t look so terrible in that context. Yes, the Blue Devils lost some extremely valuable players, but so did everybody else. Duke lost Tomlinson in the first round of the draft and Crowder in the fourth round.
Compare that to say Louisville, which finished with exactly the same 9-4 record as Duke. The Cardinals lost 10 players in the draft (one in the first round and three in the third round), Miami, which finished 6-7, lost seven players in the draft (two in the first round, one in the second and two in the third). Florida State lost 11 players in the draft.
Losses are a fact of life in college football. Good teams replace their losses with players who are as good or better. It’s just that Duke’s recent revival is so recent, that many long-time observers have a hard time coming to terms with the idea that Cutcliffe might be able to sustain his recent success.
Of course, that’s not his goal.
"The key is not sustaining – but building," he said at the Football Kickoff. "I don’t think we ever take winning for granted. I think what you do is try to create expectations that are real and are meaningful. What we’ve tried to focus on its trying to get better."
Cutcliffe has already demonstrated his ability to replace missing parts. Two years ago, after Duke first cracked the six-win barrier and snuck into a bowl, he had to replace the most prolific receiver in Duke history (sound familiar?), a three-year starting quarterback and the best Duke defensive back of the 21st Century. He had two huge gaps to fill on the offensive line.
But he replaced Connor Vernon with Jamison Crowder, subbed Anthony Boone for Sean Renfree, plugged in Jeremy Cash for Ross Cockrell and filled in the gaps on the line. All Duke did was get better – from six wins to 10 and a Coastal Division title.
A year later, he had to replace Kelby Brown, the best Duke linebacker in a generation, plus prolific tight end Braxton Deaver, two starting wide receivers and two All-ACC quality offensive linemen in David Harding and Perry Simmons.
Duke won nine games and came within a whisker of repeating as Coastal Division champs.
What so many overlook is that with the success Duke has had in the last few years, Cutcliffe has been able to recruit better. The youngsters pushing for playing time now are – on the whole – better prospects than the veterans they are replacing.
THE PROSPECTS FOR 2015
Of course, merely listing returning starters doesn’t mean anything.
Wake Forest returns a healthy 15 starters – but that means little since those 15 starters were largely ineffective last season, UNC returns 10 starters from a very explosive offense, but seven starters from a terrible defense. What does that mean?
And keep in mind, Clemson returns the least starters in the ACC (tied with Boston College) – yet, the Tigers are the odds-on favorite in Pinehurst to win the 2015 ACC title.
Duke was picked fourth in the Coastal by the ACC media – right smack in the middle of the seven-team division. I think that’s fair for a team with several question marks.
But my friend Jim Sumner made the point in Pinehurst that there is a difference between "question marks" and "concerns." The difference is that every young player is a question mark, but in many cases the promise is exciting. A concern is a position where there doesn’t seem to be a lot of promise.
I’ve thought about that and tried to break the Duke lineup down into (1) strengths; (2) adequate; (3) question marks; and (4) concerns.
This is my take on the 2015 Blue Devils.
STRENGTHS
1. Special teams: Cutcliffe was raving about his special team situation. Placekicker Ross Martin in the most accurate field goal kicker in Duke history (at 52-of-63, his .825 conversion percentage is significantly better than Will Snyderwine’s career record of .754). Will Monday has been an All-ACC punter every season (first team once, second team once and third team once). Devon Edwards is a two-time All-America pick as a kickoff returner. And, although generally unrecognized, senior Thomas Hennessey is one of the best long-snappers in college football.
Cutcliffe does need to find a replacement for punt returner Jamison Crowder, but he’s got plenty of promising candidates. Senior Max McCaffrey is an ultra-reliable punt receiver, although Ryan Smith and/or freshman T.J, Rahming may be much more explosive.
Either way, Duke could prove to be the best special teams team in the ACC.
2. Tight ends: The return of Braxton Deaver for his sixth season gives Cutcliffe an abundance of riches at tight end. Deaver is an accomplished receiver who can do for the Duke offense what Rob Gronkowski does for the Patriots (I’m NOT saying he’s anywhere near as good as Gronk, only that he adds the same dimension).
But Deaver is not the whole story. Fifth-year senior David Reeves is an accomplished tight end in his own right. He’s caught 34 passes in his career for seven touchdowns. More than that, he is the best blocking tight end on the roster. Add junior Erich Schneider, another proven receiver. Then there are junior Dan Beilinson and sophomore David Koppenhaver – two very promising young tight ends who have been plagued with injuries.
The depth is astonishing – and it may not include the best tight end on campus this fall. Tennessee transfer Daniel Helm, praised by Jeremy Cash as Duke’s best tight end "by far", will have to sit out this season, but he can practice with the team. Just keep him in mind a year from now when skeptics talk about the void left by the graduation of Deaver and Reeves.
3. Running back: Duke’s doesn’t have a single bull such as Pitt’s James Connors or anybody as explosive as former Miami tailback Duke Johnson, but does anybody else in the ACC have the depth of talent at tailback?
Senior Shaquille Powell really blossomed last season into a powerful, dependable back. Two years ago, Jela Duncan looked even more powerful. He had to miss last season with an academic issue, but that allowed him to fix a shoulder problem and get healthy. The one-two punch of Powell and Duncan should batter opponents.
Only it’s not a one-two punch … it’s one-two-three combo with sophomore Shaun Wilson. He’s a different style back – more elusive, less powerful. He may also get on the field with Duncan or Powell by playing in the slot.
And don’t forget sophomore Joseph Ajeigbe. He tends to get overlooked, but the 5-9, 215-pound bowling ball was effective in his brief stints last year, especially his eight carries for 53 yards in the win at Georgia Tech.
4. Secondary: Duke plays five defensive backs and the five positions are two and occasionally three-deep with quality players.
It starts with fifth-year senior Jeremy Cash, who might be the best safety in college football. Add Devon Edwards, an All-ACC defensive back (in addition to his kick return duties).
According to Cut, junior cornerbacks Breon Borders and Bryan Fields are approaching All-ACC quality. And sophomore safety Deondre Singleton is in that class.
But the dazzling thing is the quality of the SECOND team defensive backfield. Duke has had plenty of seasons without defensive backs of the quality of Evrett Edwards, Alonzo Saxron, Zach Muniz, Corbin McCarthy and Phillip Carter. That doesn’t count Johnathan Lloyd a young athlete who is going to play somewhere, Jake Kite, who has battled injuries, or four very highly rated true freshmen defensive backs.
The best thing about it is that it’s a proven, veteran unit – yet Cash is the only senior on the three-deep!
5. Offensive line: The line was supposed to slip a bit last season when Harding and Simmons – a pair of four-year starters – had to be replaced. Instead, it got better – leading the ACC in least sacks allowed per pass attempt; leading the nation in least rushes for loss; and opening holes for the best Duke running game since 1978!
Now two starters – two great starters – have to be replaced. But three starters return, including center Matt Skura, a legitimate preseason Rimington Award candidate (given to the nation’s best center). Guard Lucas Patrick and tackle Casey Blaser also return off last year’s superb offensive line.
"Coach [John Latina, the offensive line coach] always says that guys going into their second year as starters make huge jumps," Skura said. "That was certainly my experience."
And now Patrick and Blazer, who were certainly very solid last season in their first year as starters, should make the same jump.
Tomlinson’s spot will be filled by two players. Tanner Stone was once projected as a starting tackle. But he suffered a broken ankle in August of 2013 and missed the entire 2013 season and was somewhat limited in 2014. He’s healthy now and contending for a starting spot with fifth-year senior Cody Robinson, who has seen extensive action in the last three seasons, despite a succession of nagging injuries. He’s the strongest player on the team. That’s two good options.
The open lefty tackle spot is slated to be filled by a young prospect – redshirt sophomore Gabe Brandner. He played in five games last year, but not enough to prove himself. That makes him a question mark … but not a concern. Cutcliffe is confident he can do the job that Cofield did.
"He’s no different that Jacoby was – same age – when Jacoby became a starter," the Duke coach said. "He’s very comparable in my opinion to that."
And there’s real depth at tackle.
"You’ve got Sterling Korona, who’s pushing [Brandner]," Cutcliffe said. "Christian Harris is a name you’re going to hear about who could play either tackle."
There’s depth at guard too, where Jake Sanders and Trip O’Neill are promising redshirt freshmen, who should get experience this year and be ready to compete for starting jobs next season. And there are plenty of more young players in the pipeline.
"I’m excited about our future in the offensive line," Cutcliffe said. "We’ve got a couple of youngsters – Reno Rosene is another one of those young guys. Zach Baker who has come in and been on campus this summer."
He can’t even talk about the latest recruiting class – two four-star and a three-star offensive linemen already in the fold.
Duke will continue to lose good players up front, but will continue to replace them with good players.
ADEQUATE
1. Defensive tackle: Duke does not have any all-stars at this position, but the Devils have three solid veterans at the two DT positions and two young players with quality size.
Senior Carlos Wray, the only returning starter on the D-line, is certainly a solid player. He’s made 73 tackles in 37 career games, including 13 starts last season. Redshirt junior A.J. Wolf was last year’s top reserve and proved he was a valuable player. He might get a battle from redshirt soph Mike Ramsey, a player that is reportedly ready to make a big step after a promising freshman campaign.
Two redshirt freshmen offer more size at the position. Edgar Cerenord is the most celebrated defensive line recruit Cutcliffe has signed and he weighs in at 300 pounds. Quaven Ferguson is even bigger at 305 pounds.
It’s possible that Duke could get some help here from a true freshman, although Cutcliffe usually redshirts his young defensive tackles (Wray was a rare exception). Brandon Boyce is the most highly touted, but he’s also the smallest at just 255 pounds.
The truth is that unless Ramsey or one of the two redshirt freshmen blow up, Duke will be solid at DT … but not likely to be outstanding there.
QUESTION MARKS
1. Quarterback: There’s little doubt that Duke’s prospects this season depend on the performance of Thomas Sirk. Or, in the event he fails or is hurt, either Parker Boehme or Nicodem Pierre.
Sirk is basically an unknown, despite his success at running Duke’s short-yardage package last season. He rushed for 238 yards (at five yards a carry – which is VERY impressive since he normally ran in short-yardage situations) and eight touchdowns. He also hit 10 of 14 passes (71 percent) for three more TDs.
Cutcliffe argues that Sirk’s experience will help in that he’s known game-pressure. He certainly can handle pressure – he scored the game-winning TD in double OT to beat Pitt and he threw the winning TD pass against Virginia. But the Duke coach has other reasons to feel confident about his new quarterback.
"Thomas Sirk is going into his fourth year in the program," Cutcliffe pointed out. "When he was young, going through spring practice [in 2013], prior to rupturing his Achilles, he was our No. 2 quarterback. He had earned our No. 2 quarterback. He was competing with Anthony [Boone].
"Thomas Sirk is talented, period. Extremely talented. He’s big. He’s got a big arm. He’s got great range – better range than we’ve had. He’s the fastest quarterback we’ve had."
Cutcliffe is also impressed by Sirk’s ability to "make practice like a game."
"Everything we’ve done, since he’s walked on this campus is preparing him for this moment," the coach said. "He’s ready for this moment."
If that’s true, then Duke’s question mark at quarterback could turn into an exclamation point.
2. Wide receivers: The graduation of Crowder and Isaac Blakeney leaves a huge gap at wide receiver on the depth chart – a combined 132 catches for 1,603 yards and 13 touchdown catches.
There is a nice mix of secondary receivers returning. Senior Max McCaffrey is a two-year starter with great hands and route-running ability who has 65 career catches for almost 700 yards in his career. Johnell Barnes is a junior who has had some impressive moments in his career – 6 catches for 85 yards against UNC for instance.
There is also some promise in veterans Anthony Nash (a track standout), tiny Ryan Smith (also part of a record-setting 4 x 100 meter relay team) and Terrance Alls, assuming he gets off his indefinite suspension.
But the real hope is a number of young receivers. Two redshirt freshmen are contending for starting jobs. Trevon Lee was the most highly recruited coming out of high school, but Chris Taylor has won the plaudits of Cutcliffe and many Duke players. Right now, he’s in line to start.
Also, keep an eye on true freshman T.J. Rahming, a small (5-10, 165) package of dynamite who showed his skills at the Army All-America game, where he had touchdowns plays of 63 and 41 yards.
The position is a question mark because the proven veterans returning haven’t done enough to make them a top-quality ACC unit … but if a couple of the youngsters blossom, then Duke should be strong at wide receiver … plus, keep in mind that the strength at tight end – especially the return of Deaver – and the promise that Shaun Wilson will see action in the slot, adds a lot to Duke’s receiving corps – will take some of the pressure off the WR corps.
3. Linebacker: The graduation of David Helton, the ACC’s leading tackler for two years in a row, hurts. The injury to Kelby Brown, trying to come back after missing the 2014 season, hurts even more. The lost of those two All-ACC linebackers leaves a huge void, compounded by the graduation of 2014 starter C.J. France.
There is little experience remaining.
Oh, senior Dwayne Norman has a lot of game experience – at safety. He only moved to linebacker last spring. Sophomores Chris Holmes (another converted safety) and Xavier Carmichael saw some action last season – Holmes even started the first four games while France was getting healthy.
But the position is still promising because of those young players. Holmes and Carmichael can run. Norman has always been a terror against the run – he started at was essentially a linebacker position against Georgia Tech last season. A year ago, Norman had three sacks and two quarterback hurries. He’s had 126 tackles in his career.
"We’re going to be talented at linebacker," Cutcliffe insisted.
That talent includes redshirt freshman Tinasha Bere, who won the team’s offseason conditioning award, and true freshman Ben Humphries, a four-star prospect from California.
Again, all those guys have to prove themselves, but the Duke coaches feel good about their chances of doing that.
CONCERNS
1. Defensive end: In the last two years, Duke has lost seven top defensive ends to graduation. There’s not a lot left.
Britton Grier, a 245-pound converted linebacker, sat out the 2013 season, essentially to get him out the logjam at DE and provide some continuity going into this season. He joins Kyler Brown, a 235-pound converted linebacker, as one of two returning lettermen at the position.
A year ago, Grier and Brown combined for 30 tackles and one sack.
Backing them up are senior Deion Williams, a 230-pound converted linebacker, who made the switch to end last season, and junior Allen Jackson, a 260-pound converted defensive, who has seen action in three games in his career. Dominic McDonald, who made the switch from linebacker earlier this week, is a late addition to the mix.
That’s not an impressive group – either in terms of performance or promise. And they are all undersized for the position, except maybe Jackson.
I know that Duke is talking about a new alignment that stands up one of the ends in a "Devil" position. Is that going to make up for the fact that almost every candidate for the DE (or Devil) job is a career backup? Heck, considering that every veteran end except Jackson is a converted linebacker, maybe we should just change the designation of Duke’s defense from 4-2-5 to 2-4-5!
There is some promise in the youngsters backing the veterans up, but unlike quarterback, wide receiver and linebacker, where that promise seems ready to blossom, it appears to be a long way away at defensive end.
The one redshirt freshman is Taariq Shabazz, but he missed all last season with a knee injury. Indeed, he’s played just four games in two years as his senior year in high school was also cut short by injury.
Three true freshmen seem to offer future promise at the position, but how much can they help right away? Trevon McSwain, a 6-6, 265-pound monster, seems to offer the best chance of helping right away, although 240-pound Marquies Price was in school last spring and might have a head start.
It’s possible that the career backups at the top of the depth chart will surprise or that a couple of the youngsters will break in with a bang, but the position has to be regarded more of a concern than a mere question mark.
But every team enters the season with concerns … in the broad context of things, Duke’s preseason worries seem minor when compared with the team’s obvious strengths.