There was a time when Mike Krzyzewski had a unique edge over his rivals at the top of the college basketball pyramid.
If you're going to shop Amazon please start here and help DBR |
---|
Order your championship t-shirt today! |
Drop us a line |
From 1981 to 1999, Coach K never lost an undergraduate to the pros. He had a few transfers, but on the whole his best players – from Johnny Dawkins to Danny Ferry to Christian Laettner to Grant Hill – all stayed four years.
That wasn’t happening at the other top programs. North Carolina, Kansas, Kentucky and UCLA all lost young players to the NBA.
But keep this in perspective. K’s edge in the late 1980s and the 1990s wasn’t nearly as important as it would be today, when the rush to the NBA is a stampede. In the 1980s, most top players stayed for at least two or three years. James Worthy and Michael Jordan stayed three years at UNC. Brad Daugherty and Kenny Smith stayed four years. Len Bias stayed four years at Maryland. Ralph Sampson and Patrick Ewing stayed four years at Virginia and Georgetown, respectively.
In the 1990s, the pace picked up a bit, but was still less than it is today. Shaquille O’Neal stayed three years at LSU. Tim Duncan stayed four years at Wake Forest. Chris Webber, Allen Iverson, Jerry Stackhouse and Rasheed Wallace all stayed in college for two years. Vince Carter, Antwan Jamison, Juwan Howard and Paul Pierce all stayed three years in college.
So while Krzyzewski’s ability to retain his stars for four years was an edge, it wasn’t a huge edge in that era.
And things changed for the Duke program overnight, following the 1999 season.
Three underclassmen – sophomore Elton Brand, sophomore Will Avery and freshman Corey Maggette – all jumped to the NBA that spring.
That changed things for Krzyzewski.
Over the next decade, Duke had to deal with early entry. On the whole, between 1999 and 2010, Coach K still held on to his stars for longer than many coaches. He kept Jason Williams for a third year, when the dynamic guard could have been a top pick after his sophomore year. Shane Battier, a classmate of Brand and Avery, stayed four years – helping lead Duke to the 2001 national title. Classmates J.J. Redick and Shelden Williams each stayed four productive seasons.
But there were disappointments – Luol Deng, who led Duke to the 2004 Final Four, jumped to the NBA after one year. Josh McRoberts left after two years. Jason Williams and classmates Carlos Boozer and Mike Dunleavy left after three years. So did Shav Randolph and Gerald Henderson.
Everything changed again in 2011.
That season was an interesting balance between Coach K’s ability to retain his talent and the new reality. That team featured seniors Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith, who both elected to return to Duke after helping the Devils win the 2010 national title. But it also featured freshman Kyrie Irving – the first player K ever recruited with the expectation that he might be one and done (while Maggette and Deng were one-and-dones, neither was expected to be when he was recruited).
Irving, who went on to become the first pick in the 2011 NBA Draft, despite missing most of his freshman season with a toe injury, set the new tone at Duke.
From 2011 until now, nobody has done a better job at converting potential one-and-dones into actual one-and-dones than Krzyzewski. He’s brought in six potential one-and-dones in that span and turned all six into actual one-and-dones.
The only coach to turn out more one-and-dones during that period is Kentucky’s John Calipari, but just 12 of his 16 potential one-and-dones have left after one year. That 75 percent rate is excellent – but not as good as K’s 100 percent over the same period.
A POTENTIAL ONE-AND-DONE
Of course, that raises the question: What is a potential one-and-done?
I’ve elected to define it as a player who ranked among the top 10 prospects in his high school class. I realize that it’s a bit arbitrary to suggest that, say, Gerald Henderson (the No. 10 player in 2006) is a potential one-and-done while P.J. Hairston (No. 11 in 2011) is not.
But the numbers support that suggestion.
Since 2006 (the first year when high school players could not jump straight to the NBA), 57 of 90 top 10 prospects have been one-and-done. That’s 63.3 percent – almost two thirds.
Stretch that to the second 10 and the number drops to less than 25 percent (although this year is an aberration with five second-10 prospects jumping to the NBA). And beyond the second 10, one-and-done prospects are rare indeed.
It’s amazing to look at the second 10 talent that stayed two years or more – from Blake Griffin to James Harden to Kemba Walker to Nolan Smith to such 2015 standouts as Sam Dekker, Kyle Wiltjer, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Brandon Dawson.
So I think it’s fair to label a top 10 recruit as a potential one-and-done. Here’s the raw listing of all the top 10 prospects since 2006 (again, an arbitrary date – but one chosen because it’s the year the high school-to-NBA pipeline was closed). The rankings are from the RSCI, which averages the rankings of the major recruiting services:
2006
1. Greg Oden, Ohio State …. One year
2. Kevin Durant, Texas … One year
3. Brandon Wright, UNC … One year
4. Spencer Hawes, Washington … One year
5. Ty Lawson, UNC … Three years
6. Thaddeus Young, Georgia Tech … One year
7. Chase Buddinger, Arizona … Three years
8. Wayne Ellington, UNC … Three years
9. Brook Lopez, Stanford … Two years
10. Gerald Henderson, Duke … Three years
2007
1. O.J. Mayo, Southern Cal … One year
2. Kevin Love, UCLA … One year
3. Eric Gordon, Indiana … One year
4. Michael Beasley, Kansas State … One year
5. Derrick Rose, Memphis … One year
6. Kyle Singler, Duke … Four years
7. Jerryd Bayless, Arizona … One year
8. Donte Greene, Syracuse …One year
9. J.J. Hickson, N.C. State … One year
10. Patrick Patterson, Kentucky … Three years
2008
1. Brandon Jennings (Europe) … One year
2. Jrue Holiday, UCLA … One year
3. Tyreke Evans, Memphis … One year
4. Samardo Samuels, Louisville … Two years
5. Demar Derozan, Southern Cal … One year
6. Al-Farouq Aminu, Wake Forest … Two years
7. Greg Monroe, Georgetown … Two years
8. B.J. Mullens, Ohio State … One year
9. Ed Davis, UNC … Two years
10. Delvon Roe, Michigan State … Three years (injury)
2009
1. Derrick Favors, Georgia Tech … One year
2. John Wall, Kentucky … One year
3. DeMarcus Cousins, Kentucky … One year
4. Avery Bradley, Texas … One year
5. John Henson, North Carolina … Three years
6. Xavier Henry, Kansas … One year
7. Renardo Sidney. Miss State … Three years (one suspended)
8. Lance Stephenson, Cincinnati … One year
9. Kenny Boynton, Florida … Four years
10. Keith Gallon, Oklahoma … One year
2010
1. Harrison Barnes, UNC … Two years
2. Jared Sullinger, Ohio State … Two years
3. Kyrie Irving, Duke … One year
4. Brandon Knight, Kentucky … One year
5. Tobias Harris, Tennessee … One year
6. Josh Shelby, Kansas … One year
7. Enes Kanter, Kentucky … One year (ineligible)
8. Perry Jones, Baylor … One year
9. Tristan Thompson, Texas … Two years
10. Will Barton, Memphis … Two years
2011
1. Anthony Davis, Kentucky … One year
2. Austin Rivers, Duke … One year
3. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Kentucky … One year
4. Bradley Beal, Florida … One year
5. Quincy Miller, Baylor … One year
6. James Michael McAdoo, UNC … Three years
7. Marquis Teague, Kentucky … One year
8. LeBryan Nash, Oklahoma State … Four years
9. Adonis Thomas, Memphis … Two years
10. Cody Zeller, Indiana … Two years
2012
1. Shabazz Mohammad, UCLA … One year
2. Nerlens Noel, Kentucky … One year
3. Kyle Anderson, UCLA … Two years
4. Isaiah Austin, Baylor … Two years
5. Steven Adams, Pittsburgh … One year
6. Anthony Bennett, UNLV … One year
7. Kaleb Tarczewski, Arizona … Four Years
8. Alex Poythress, Kentucky … Three/Four years
9. Marcus Smart, Oklahoma State … Two years
10. Archie Goodwin, Kentucky … One year
2013
1. Anthony Wiggins, Kansas … One year
2. Julius Randle, Kentucky … One year
3. Jabari Parker, Duke … One year
4. Aaron Gordon, Arizona … One year
5. Andrew Harrison, Kentucky … Two years
6. Aaron Harrison, Kentucky … Two years
7. Chris Walker, Florida …Three Years (at least)
8. Noah Vonleh, Indiana … One year
9. Dakari Johnson, Kentucky … Two years
10. James Young, Kentucky … One year
2014
1. Jahlil Okafor, Duke … One year
2. Emmanuel Mudiay (China) … One year
3. Stanley Johnson, Arizona … One year
4. Cliff Alexander, Kansas …One year
5. Karl Towns, Kentucky … One year
6. Myles Turner, Texas … One year
7. Tyus Jones, Duke … One Year
8. Kelly Oubre, Kansas … One year
9. Justin Jackson, UNC … Two years (at least)
10. Rashad Vaughn, UNLV … One year
OBSERVATIONS:
-- While 64.4 percent of the top 10 prospects are one-and-dones, that number skyrockets when we look at the top five prospects each year – 37 of 45 have gone to the NBA after one college season – 82.2 percent.
The eight top 5 prospects (with their rank) who did not turn out to be one-and-dones:
(5) Ty Lawson, UNC – Three years
(4) Samardo Samuels, Louisville – Two years
(5) John Henson, UNC – Three years
(1) Harrison Barnes, UNC – Two years
(2) Jared Sullinger, Ohio State – Two years
(3) Kyle Anderson, UCLA – Two years
(4) Isaiah Austin, Baylor – Two years*
(5) Andrew Harrison, Kentucky – Two years
Austin is a special case. He declared after one year, but due to a shoulder that required surgery in the spring of his freshman season, he pulled his name out of the draft. After his sophomore year, Austin was diagnosed with Marfan Syndrome and never played in the NBA.
Of course, the big thing that jumps out at you while looking at this list is that three of the eight top 5 prospects who were not one-and-done played for Roy Williams at North Carolina. More than that, the only two top 5 prospects who stayed three years were Carolina guys – Ty Lawson and John Henson.
-- There are 16 programs that have recruited more than one top 10 prospect since 2006. Eight have recruited five or more. Here’s the list (along with each school’s success at turning potential one-and-dones into real one-and-dones):
(17) Kentucky – 12 of 17 top 10 (70.5 percent); 8 of 9 top 5 (88.9 percent)
(8) UNC – 1 of 8 top 10 (12.5 percent); 1 of 4 top 5 (25 percent)
(7) Duke – 5 of 7 top 10 (71.4 percent); 4 of 4 top 5 (100 percent)
(5) Kansas – 5 of 5 top 10 (100 percent); 2 of 2 top 5 (100 percent)
(5) Arizona – 3 of 5 top 10 (60 percent); 2 of 2 top 5 (100 percent)
(4) UCLA – 3 of 4 top 10 (75 percent); 3 of 4 top 5 (75 percent)
(4) Texas – 3 of 4 top 10 (75 percent); 2 of 2 top 5 (100 percent)
(4) Memphis –2 of 4 top 10 (50 percent); 2 of 2 top 5 (100 percent)
(3) Ohio State – 2 of 3 top 10 (66.7 percent); 1 of 2 top 5 (50 percent)
(3) Florida – 1 of 3 top 10 (33.3 percent); 1 of 1 top 5 (100 percent)
(3) Baylor – 2 of 3 top 10 (66.7 percent); 1 of 2 top 5 (50 percent)
(3) Indiana – 2 of 3 top 10 (66.7 percent); 1 of 1 top 5 (100 percent)
(2) Georgia Tech – 2 of 2 top 10 (100 percent); 1 of 1 top 5 (100 percent)
(2) Southern Cal – 2 of 2 top 10 (100 percent); 2 of 2 top 5 (100 percent)
(2) UNLV – 2 of 2 top 10 (100 percent); no top 5
(2) Oklahoma State – 0 for 2 top 10 (0 percent); no top 5
Again, North Carolina’s failure to get top 5 and top 10 prospects into the NBA after one year is startling. The Tar Heels lone one-and-done in this era was Brandon Wright after the 2006 season. Since then, Roy has managed to hold on to his top prospects longer than any coach in college basketball.
Now, it’s fair to ask – Is that a good thing or a bad thing?
It could be argued that it is good that he has kept his kids in school longer (although the counter argument is that many of them were receiving a phony education).
On the other hand, it can’t be argued that Roy’s reluctance to prepare his kids for the NBA is starting to hurt him on the recruiting trail. Kids are wondered what happened to players such as James Michael McAdoo (whose draft stock dropped from the lottery after his freshman year to undraftable after his junior year) and why it took Harrison Barnes two years to get to the league?
They can look and see that the top-rated player from last year’s recruiting class who did not turn out to be a one-and-done was UNC’s Justin Jackson.
How does that impact Brandon Ingram, who has let friends know that he hopes to be one-and-done? Where is that most likely to happen – at UNC, playing for Roy? All of his other major targets – Duke, Kansas and Kentucky – have MUCH better track records.
THE CALIPARI FACTOR
There were one-and-dones before John Calipari. There were even one-and-done TEAMS – Syracuse in 2003 won the national title with three freshmen stars (although just one turned out to be one-and-done). Ohio State in 2007 finished second in the tournament with three freshmen starters who were one-and-done players.
But in a very real sense, John Calipari took the one-and-done phenomena to the next level when he arrived at Kentucky in the spring of 2009. He intentionally recruited a class of prospects with the promise that he’d get them to the NBA after just one season.
And he delivered on that promise. His first Kentucky team in 2010 reached the NCAA Elite Eight, but is also generated four one-and-done players – John Wall, Demarcus Cousins, Eric Bledsoe and Daniel Orton.
Calipari had a fifth first-rounder that 2010 draft night, but Patrick Patterson, the No. 10 prospect in the Class of 2007, was a Billy Gillespie recruit who played three years of college ball.
The astonishing thing about Calipari’s accomplishment was not the five first-round draft picks after the 2010 season, but the fact that he was able to reload with another dynamite class in 2011. He’s reached the Final Four four times in six seasons, winning the national championship in 2012.
That title team was a mix of one-and-done freshmen (Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Marquis Teague) with some important upperclassmen (Terrence Jones and Dorian Lamb played huge roles) – very much like Duke’s 2015 title team that mixed four freshmen with the upperclass talents of Quinn Cook, Matt Jones and Amile Jefferson.
It’s not a formula that many programs can emulate. Go back and look at the list of schools that have signed three top 10 prospects over the last nine years – much less three in one year.
And it’s not always easy for Calipari. He missed on a few targets, overrated a few others, and landed in the NIT in 2013. As this is being written, he’s in a very perilous situation for 2016 – Calpari has missed on a number of targets and – at the moment – has just one probable one-and-done player on his 2016 roster (center Skal Labissiere).
Krzyzewski has not had that kind of problem since he entered the one-and-done world in 2011. But before this season, he’s only had to deal with one one-and-done at a time. This offseason – and the 2015-16 season – will test his ability to reload quickly and at a high level.
Interesting that at the moment, he doesn’t appear to have a probable one-and-done on his roster, although Brandon Ingram could change that if he commits to the Devils Monday.
It’s hard to be sure, since the final RSCI rankings aren’t out yet. The pre-summer rankings had Chase Jeter at No. 8 with Ingram at No. 18. Looking at the postseason rankings that have come out, I think those two will flip-flop in the final rankings.
So far, I see Jeter at No. 11 (ESPN), No. 16 (Rivals) and No. 20 (247 Sports).
Ingram is at No. 3 (ESPN), No. 3 (247 Sports) and No. 4 (Rivals)
Derryck Thornton, who was a top 10 player in the class of 2016, has landed in the second 10 when it comes to the Class of 2015: No. 14 (Rivals), No. 17 (ESPN), No. 18 (247 Sports).
Luke Kennard is at No. 21 (247 Sports), No. 24 (ESPN) and No. 25 (Rivals).
I think that when RSCI’s final rankings come out, that Ingram will be in the 3-5 range; Jeter and Thornton will be in the second 10, Kennard will be in the 20-25 range. Antonio Vrackovic will be lucky to crack the top 100.
That means that, based on past results, that the odds are that Brandon Ingram has an 80 percent chance to be a one-and-dome – better than that at Duke, Kansas or Kentucky … much worse than that at UNC.
The odds are that neither Jeter nor Thornton will be a one-and-done. In the last nine years, Coach K has recruited six players ranked in the teens and the only one that was one-and-done was No. 13 Justise Winslow. Four of the others – No. 18 Nolan Smith, No. 14 Ryan Kelly, No. 18 Mason Plumlee and No. 12 Rasheed Sulaimon – have been four year players (although Sulaimon will finish his fourth year elsewhere).
K has not had a player ranked outside the top 20 go pro after one year, so the odds are good that Luke Kennard will also be back for 2016-17.
However, Krzyzewski is recruiting a lot of players in the Class of 2016 that look like one-and-dones – No. 1 Jayson Tatum, No. 2 Harry Giles, No. 4 Dennis Smith and No. 14 Tyus Battle (all based on ESPN’s 2016 rankings) are all Duke targets that could finish in the top 10 (probable one-and-done range).
Depending on how many he lands, we might have to go through this spring’s upheaval again in two years.
The new world is nerve-wracking, but as we saw earlier this month in Indianapolis, it can be quite rewarding too.