Anthony Boone is the most experienced quarterback in the ACC.
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Unfortunately, he's the only player on the Duke roster who has ever taken a snap in a college game.
Obviously, a lot depends on Mr. Boone this season.
The fifth-year senior from Monroe, N.C., had a good, but not great individual season last year.
His most impressive stat was his 9-2 record as a starter. Counting his Virginia start in 2012, he's 10-2 as Duke's starting quarterback in his career.
That's the best single-season winning percentage of any Duke T-formation quarterback (unless you count Dave Brown's 3-0 record as a starter in 1989). To get a better winning percentage for a quarterback who started most of the season, you'd have to go back to one of Wallace Wade's single-wing quarterbacks - maybe Tommy Prothro or Elmore Hackney. And quarterback was quite a different position in the single wing.
Still, as impressive as his won-lost record is, Boone's passing stats are not eye-popping. True, he completed 64 percent of his 322 pass attempts, but that's in context of Renfree, who was 65 percent for his career and not much better than run-specialist Connette, who was at 62 percent last season. Boone's 2,260 yards is merely the 15rh best season total in Duke history (and the fifth-best for a Cutcliffe starter). His balance of 13 TD passes and 13 interceptions is downright subpar for Duke's top passers.
Boone has been an effective runner - 214 yards and five touchdowns on the ground last season - but his classmate, Connette, was a better runner.
Is there any reason to think Boone can significantly improve his efficiency this season?
The answer is, yes - an emphatic Yes!
The reason is there in Cutcliffe's resume. Over the course of his career, his senior quarterbacks almost always elevate their games.
The sample size at Duke is small, but both Lewis and Renfree - his two previous long-term quarterbacks - were both significantly better as seniors than as juniors. Look at the numbers:
Thad Lewis
- 2008 - 2,171 yards, 62.0 percent completions, 15 TDs/6 interceptions.
- 2009 - 3,330 yards, 61.0 percent competition, 20 TDs/8 interceptions.
Lewis was able to increase his passing yardage by 50 percent while maintaining his completion percentage and his TD/interception ratio. Duke increased its win total from four wins in 2008 to five wins in 2009.
Sean Renfree
- 2011 - 2,891 yards, 65.0 percent completions, 14 TDs/11 interceptions.
- 2012 - 3,113 yards. 67.3 percent completions, 19 TDs/10 interceptions.
Not only did Renfree improve his numbers across the boards, but Duke improved from three wins in 2011 to six wins in 2012.
Okay, I've admitted that's a small sample size. But if you track Cutcliffe's quarterbacks at Tennessee and Ole Miss, you see the same pattern:
-- Eli Manning went from 3,401 yards (and 58 percent completions) with 21 TDs/15 interceptions as a junior to 3,600 yards (62.1 percent completions) and 29 TDs/10 interceptions as a senior. Ole Miss went from seven wins in his junior year to 10 wins when he was a senior.
-- Peyton Manning went from 3,287 yards, 20 TDs/12 interceptions as a junior to 3,819 yards, 36 TDs/11 interceptions as a senior. Tennessee improved from 10 to 11 wins in those two seasons.
-- Erik Ainge went from 2,989 yards, 19 TDs/9 interceptions as a junior to 3,522 yards, 31 TDs/10 interceptions. And Tennessee went from nine wins in his junior year to 10 wins as a senior.
-- Heath Shuler didn't stay at Tennessee for his senior year, but between his sophomore and junior years, he upped his passing yardage by more than 600 yards, improved his passing percentage seven percent and upped his TD total from 10 to 25. Tennessee gained a half a game in his two years -- improving from 9-3 to 9-2-1.
There is at least one exception to the rule - Tee Martin, bothered at midseason by an injury, increased his passing yardage as a senior, but the rest of his numbers went down slightly.
So nothing is guaranteed, but the odds are that if Boone stays healthy this season, he will be significantly better as a senior than he was as a junior. And it's not unlikely that Duke will improve its win total slightly.
THE CHANCES OF INJURY
There's no concern at quarterback if Boone stays healthy all season.
But what are the chances of that?
David Cutcliffe has coached 75 games at Duke and in those games, his starting quarterback has been unable to play five times - Thaddeus Lewis missed the Virginia Tech game late in 2008, but otherwise started 23 of 24 possible games; Sean Renfree missed the Virginia game in 2012, but started 36 of 37 possible games in his three years as the designated starter; Anthony Boone started 11 of 14 games last season, missing starts against Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh and Troy with a broken collarbone.
Interesting that Duke is 2-3 in those games started by a backup quarterbacks:
-- Zack Asack started, but was ineffective in that 14-3 loss to VPI in Blacksburg during Cut's first season. He hit 2-of-9 passes for 20 yards with four interceptions. Not sure how much he was to blame - conditions were terrible and as long as Duke stayed close (and that was until the final minute), Cut insisted on an extremely conservative gameplan.
-- Backup Anthony Boone started against Virginia in 2012 and led the Devils to a lopsided victory, throwing four touchdown passes without an interception.
-- Backup Brandon Connette replaced an injured Boone against Georgia Tech in the third game of the 2013 season and was ineffective as the Blue Devils were hammered by the Yellow Jackets in Wade Stadium.
-- Connette started the next week against Pitt and was extremely effective - throwing for 323 yards against the Panthers and leading the Duke offense to 532 total yards and seven touchdowns (Duke got an eighth on a Jamison Crowder punt return). The Devils still lost when the defense gave up 598 yards total offense and 55 points. Connette did throw four interceptions that day, including one that was returned for what proved to be the winning touchdown.
-- Connette started his third straight game against Troy in Wade Stadium and was outstanding again. He threw for 324 yards and three touchdowns with just one interception. He also ran for two more touchdowns in the 38-31 win.
In addition to the five games where Duke was missing its starting quarterback, there have been two recent incidents where the starter was knocked out during the game, -- 2012 at Wake, when Sean Renfree suffered a shoulder injury and backup Anthony Boone entered a tie game at the start of the fourth quarter and rescued the victory; and last season at Memphis, when Boone suffered a broken collarbone and backup Brandon Connette entered a tie game in the second quarter and led Duke to a two-touchdown win.
On the other side, Lewis was knocked out of the 2008 Clemson game early and Asack was ineffective in relief as Duke was hammered.
Of course, all three of the replacement quarterbacks that we've talked about - Asack, Boone and Connette -- were fairly experienced before they were called on to start.
That won't be the case this season -- if Boone is lost early.
Thomas Sirk and Parker Boehme are both lacking any experience whatsoever.
In Sirk's case, the situation is particularly unfortunate. He was slated to see action last season as Boone's backup. When he was hurt - suffering a ruptured Achilles tendon late in the spring of 2012 - he was running second team … ahead of Connette. Without the injury, Sirk would have seen plenty of action a year ago. Indeed, he would probably have started the three games Boone missed.
When you trace Cutcliffe's career as a quarterback guru, that's the way he usually works. He is excellent at preparing the next guy in line to take over the job. Look at his quarterback progression at Duke:
1. He inherited Thaddeus Lewis from Ted Roof. Lewis started his first two seasons at Duke under the previous coaching regime. By the time Cutcliffe took over, Lewis already had 23 starts and over 4,500 yards passing.
2. Sean Renfree was Cut's first recruit at Duke - a Parade All-America thrower from Arizona, who switched his commitment from Georgia Tech when that school hired wishbone coach Paul Johnson.
Cutcliffe, knowing he had two more years from Lewis, redshirted Renfree in 2008 and planned to give Renfree extensive work as a backup in 2009. That plan was somewhat undermined when Renfree was hurt in a late game against Georgia Tech, but he nevertheless saw action in five games that season, completing 34 of 50 passes for 330 yards and four touchdowns.
He would start the next three seasons.
3. Boone arrived at Duke at the same time as Connette and while his classmate played as a true freshman in 2010, Boone redshirted. But Connette was hurt early in the 2011 season and Boone got to play in 10 games that year and 12 in 2012 (including one start). By the time he stepped into the permanent starting role in 2013, he had 22 games, 800-plus yards passing and six touchdown passes on his resume.
Neither Sirk nor Boehme will have that luxury as the new season opens.
However, if Boone can stay healthy this season, at least one - and probably both - of the young quarterbacks will get the same kind of on-the-job training that Renfree and Boone received before they were thrust into the starting job.
THE BACKUP PROSPECTS
There's also a fourth quarterback on the roster - freshman Nicodem Pierre is the highest rated QB prospect to sign with Duke since Renfree. A 6-2, 205-pound dual-threat quarterback from Miami, Pierre is well regarded as a runner and a passer.
But given everything we know about Cutcliffe, Pierre is not likely to be in the mix to back up Boone. Cutcliffe almost always redshirts his freshmen quarterbacks. He did it with Renfree. He did it with Boone. Heck, he did it with Eli Manning!
You saw that in 2008, when Thad Lewis went down late, Cutcliffe wouldn't break Sean Renfree's redshirt against Virginia Tech - electing to go with the inadequate Zack Asack instead. You saw that last year when Duke was down to one healthy quarterback at midseason (when first Boone, then Connette were sidelined) that Cut refused to break freshman Parker Boehme's redshirt - even with many panicky fans screaming that Boehme needed to get some snaps in case he was required to step in.
The position is just too complex to be handled by a true freshman.
There has been one exception at Duke - Brandon Connette played as quarterback of Duke's short-yardage and goal-line package as a true freshman in 2010. I would argue that Connette's early use was the result of a couple of circumstances. First, there was no other quarterback on the roster behind first-year starter Sean Renfree. Mike Cappetto, who was supposed to be the backup, suffered a career-ending injury and spent the rest of his time at Duke as an unofficial assistant coach.
And the short-yardage role is far less complex than being a fulltime QB. It's must more like the demands on a freshman running back - and that's a place Cut has used a number of true freshmen.
Also, I think it interesting that given the choice of playing one freshman quarterback and redshirting the other, Cutcliffe elected to redshirt the freshman quarterback with the most long-term potential - Boone - and play the other guy. Connette was a superb short-yardage QB, but it wasn't until late in his fourth year at Duke that he matured into a capable all-around quarterback.
If Pierre has the potential to be Duke's starting quarterback some day, he will almost certainly redshirt. If he's merely a good athlete and a strong runner, he could be in the mix to be Duke's short-yardage QB this season.
But if that happens, it would make it less likely - in my opinion - that Pierre would ever be Duke's real quarterback.
That leaves Sirk and Boehme.
Right now, Sirk is the frontrunner to be the No. 2 guy, although Cutcliffe has made it sound like Boehme will also get work. It's possible that one of them will be the backup quarterback and the other will run the short-yardage package. That was what Cutcliffe was planning to do with Boone, Sirk and Connette in the spring of 2013 - before Sirk was hurt.
That injury hangs like a pall over an extremely promising young player.
Those who were lucky enough to see him in preseason scrimmages in 2012 and in spring of 2103 before the injury were dazzled by his potential. He is a tall, lanky quarterback (6-4, 215) with a very strong arm and explosive legs. Watching him in preseason 2012, I thought Sirk resembled Colin Kaepernick. Not saying he was that good, but stylistically, he resembled the all-pro 49ers quarterback.
Then came the injury - a ruptured Achilles tendon that sidelined the Florida native all of last season. He returned for spring practice.
The Thomas Sirk I saw last spring was a shadow of the pr-injury kid I saw a year earlier. Actually, his passing may have improved - as a freshman, Sirk had better arm strength than accuracy. He was more accurate last spring.
But the explosiveness on the ground was missing. Sirk still ran okay, but nothing special. Whether the problem was physical or merely a mental hurdle that Sirk has get over, I don't know. Cutcliffe insists that Sirk's injury will heal 100 percent and he will regain his 4.5 speed in the 40.
Last week, in a teleconference with reporters, offensive coordinator Scottie Montgomery praised Sirk for his increased understanding of the offense.
"The one thing we didn't know about Sirk -- just because he hasn't had a lot of full time at quarterback -- is that his knowledge of our offense has completely grown," Montgomery said. "His completion percentage is much higher than it was. We're trying to continue to make him understand that he is a weapon, not only throwing the football, but also running the football."
Boehme has had an interesting career for a redshirt freshman who has never played a game.
The 6-2, 220-pound Floridian arrived at Duke in January, 2013, hoping to get a head start on his career. Unfortunately, he was coming off toe surgery and missed most of spring drills. Hs was cleared to play just in time to play in the spring game. With just one day of practice to prepare him, Boehme did remarkably well, hitting 11 of 13 passes of 128 yards (although he was throwing against backups and scrubs).
Still, the plan was to redshirt him as a freshman, But because of the injury to Sirk and the subsequent short-term injuries to Boone and Connette, Boehme was never relegated to the scout team. He got most of his practice work last season with the first and second teams. There was a four-game stretch last season when he was one stubbed toe by Boone or Connette - or even one lost helmet -- away from getting in a game.
Boehme got to go through spring drills after last season, but in a complete reversal of spring 2013, he was hurt just before the end of workouts and missed the spring game.
Although Boehme is built much like Connette, he's regarded as a much advanced passer.
"I think Parker is one of our most accurate passers," Montgomery said. "I think he's as accurate as Anthony. He's not as old in the offense as Thomas is, but I think his knowledge is continuing to grow. We're excited to see where he's going to do."
The ideal situation is for Sirk and Boehme to be tested this season in limited duty as backups to a healthy Boone. Then next spring, the two young quarterbacks can battle Pierre for the starting job in 2015.
The nightmare scenario is that Boone is lost early and either Sirk or Boehme (or maybe both in rotation) would have to carry the 2014 Blue Devils.
I'm not sure that would be an utter disaster, but I think it's obvious that the Blue Devils have their best chance for success with Anthony Boone enjoying the kind of senior season that Cutcliffe's senior QBs almost always enjoy.